After a weekend jam packed with provincial rugby on both sides of the equator, The Rugby Championship enters the penultimate round when the Springboks host the struggling Wallabies and the Pumas welcome tournament leaders the All Blacks to La Plata. The Springboks need a comprehensive victory to keep the tournament alive, while the Wallabies would love nothing more than to beat the home side to restore some pride and gain some confidence. Argentina have played spirited rugby throughout the competition, but the All Blacks continue to stake their claim to be one of the most successful sporting brands on earth. In the ITM Cup, Wellington defended resiliently with 14 men to hold out Canterbury and keep their undefeated season in check, but heading into the business end of the season more and more matches will have ramifications on the final playoff picture. Looking elsewhere, the Currie Cup continues to put up some high-scoring spectacles and the French Top 14 is nothing short of a lottery. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby as the giants of the southern hemisphere rugby battle it out for supremacy.

Best Bet 1: Southland +14.5 (PYOL)/Canterbury @ $1.96 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 2: Taranaki -3.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: Australia +12 @ $1.90 – Bet365

Best Bet 4: New Zealand -14.5 @ $1.90 – Sportingbet

South Africa ($1.20) versus Australia ($6.80) 

Newlands Stadium in Cape Town, one of the most recognised rugby grounds in South Africa plays host to the seething Springboks and an underperforming Wallabies outfit on Saturday evening. South Africa had the best possible start to the competition by thrashing Argentina in Soweto, narrowly defeating the Pumas in Mendoza, securing their first win at Suncorp Stadium in over forty years, before falling short against the world champions New Zealand in Auckland. It was billed to be an epic test match and the hype and excitement around the match reminded me of the Rugby World Cup itself, but unfortunately it will be remembered for all the wrong reasons. The Wallabies on the other hand picked up their first win of the tournament and only their second victory this year after a narrow win in torrid conditions in Perth. The Wallabies will want to avenge their Brisbane loss and the Springboks need to win this game to stay alive, so this will no doubt be an enthralling contest.

South Africa:  

After a mentally and physically taxing tour where the Springboks experienced the highest of highs in Australia and the lowest of lows in Auckland, the locals will be eager to return to the winner’s circle by putting up a strong performance in front of vocal home crowd. In round four, after an eagerly anticipated build up, the tourists started poorly at Eden Park and were down 7 – 0 on the scoreboard, after some soft and overly upright goal line defense. The Springboks then fought back and after kicking a penalty goal, things went very, very wrong. What many thought was a perfectly timed and legitimate tackle from the Springbok’s hooker on New Zealand’s famous son Dan Carter, French referee Romain Poite blew his whistle and immediately sent du Plessis off for ten minutes. It was a decision that was made abruptly, without any collective input from his colleagues and one that well and truly ruined what should’ve been a rugby classic. The yellow card has since been rescinded by the IRB and Poite himself has admitted that he made the wrong call.

Unsurprisingly, it didn’t take long for the All Blacks to make the Springboks pay when Brodie Retallick crossed for his first test try, but upon the ‘villains’ return, du Plessis redeemed himself by crashing over the try line on the back of a well constructed trademark maul. The home side went into the break up 17 – 10 and it didn’t take long for referee Romain Poite to strike again when du Plessis went into a collision with his elbow raised and struck Liam Messam in the throat. This saw Bismarck handed his second yellow card and in turn, automatically sent off. It didn’t take the All Blacks long to secure an important four-try bonus point, but it must be said that the Springboks competed exceptionally well despite playing 48 minutes with only 14 men on the field. Additionally, they once again proved to be the strongest finishing team in the competition when Pat Lambie dotted down late, thanks to some aerial acrobatics.

There is no doubt that South Africa will be seeking revenge next weekend, but before then the wounded Wallabies await and given the tourists recent dominance over the Springboks, it would be suicidal to take them lightly. Coach and walkie-talkie abuser Heyneke Meyer has named a relatively unchanged squad for the match at Newlands Stadium with lineout ace Adriaan Strauss replacing Bismarck du Plessis and Fourie du Preez also makes his first start for a number of years in place of Ruan Pienaar. After the World Cup winning halfback’s cameo against the Argentinians, Springbok fans have been itching to see more of the experienced number nine, and what better way than to see him showcase his talents against the Wallabies. Jannie du Plessis and Morne Steyn will win their 50th caps this weekend, which will only add to the spectacle, but it must be said that the former’s defense must be a real concern to Heyneke Meyer. In Auckland, he missed three crucial tackles, all of which led to All Black tries. Given the rigours of Super and Test Rugby, players like du Plessis and captain Jean de Villiers will need to be managed carefully with the Rugby World Cup only two short years away. Eben Etzebeth continues his rise to be one of the best locks in world rugby at the slender age of 21. His lineout prowess, uncompromising nature and high work rate make him a valuable asset to the Springboks and certainly a player that will play 100 times for his country – if injuries permit. Heyneke Meyer has instructed his troops to focus on the victory and let the bonus point take care of itself, however, historically speaking, the Springboks have failed to score a four-try bonus point against the Wallabies in all six matches against the Wallabies in Cape Town in the post-isolation era. It will be interesting to see at what point Jean de Villiers starts turning down kickable penalties for the opportunity to chase the vital full house of points.

Australia: 

2013 was always going to be a huge year for Australian rugby with the British & Irish Lions venturing south and a jam packed provincial and international calendar. Little did anyone know that nine months into the season, Australia would have a record of two wins and five losses, of which three of those losses have come under new coach Ewen Mckenzie. The Wallabies are clearly lacking confidence and this is evident when good players such as Will Genia and Stephen Moore make mistakes that are generally unheard of. Fundamentally, Australia continues to be very disappointing, but they will be relieved to get that win against Argentina in Perth. The game was played in awful conditions and the entertainment value of the match wasn’t much better. Israel Folau scored the Wallabies only try of the match after some nifty footwork close to the line and the Wallabies relied on Christian Lealifano’s boot to score the rest of their points. Lealifano has been one player I have been disappointed with in the last month and it is evident that he has really felt the step up to international rugby. At present, I think his goal kicking might just be keeping him in the team.

One of the first issues Mckenzie spoke about when he took over the reins was team discipline and creating a culture and environment that allowed his players to thrive. James O’Connor clearly missed the memo as his Wallaby and Super Rugby futures are now in doubt after another late night incident that saw him disallowed onto a plane en route to Bali, as a result of being too intoxicated. It really is a shame to see so many talented players, predominantly from the Gen Y brigade, spoil opportunities that many wouldn’t dream of.

Looking at this week’s team sheet, the Wallabies have lost Nick Cummins (broken hand) and Jesse Mogg (shoulder) for the remainder of the tournament, but skipper James Horwill does make a return to the squad after healing sufficiently from a hamstring strain. His leadership and grunt upfront will fill a huge void that has been missing and I expect the team to galvanize with his return. Coach Ewen McKenzie has resisted reuniting Will Genia with his Red’s teammate Quade Cooper, however, should the Wallabies prevail this weekend, it could well be on the back of a huge effort from their underperforming forwards and some razzle dazzle from the dynamic duo late in the match. The versatile Adam Ashley-Cooper shifts one spot out to the wing in place of the suspended James O’Connor, with Brumbies centre Tevita Kuridrani set to wear the number 13 jersey. Kuridrani’s teammate in Canberra, Joe Tomane takes his spot on the other wing in a predominantly Polynesian backline. It doesn’t take a genius to know that the Springboks will look to play field position and will capitalise on a weak Australian set piece. The Springboks are known for their superior mauling and although some people deem this to be ‘legalized obstruction’, this is something that the Wallabies will need to nullify if they want to stay in the contest. Ewen McKenzie has named a bench jam-packed with big forwards to counteract the Springboks engine room with Benn ‘Fat Cat’ Robinson earning a recall and the gigantic Sitaleki Timani due for some time in the second half.

It is clear that the Wallabies are having issues with their game plan at the moment as their attack at all costs attitude has failed to yield any substantial results. I suspect they will adopt a balanced approach in Cape Town with more territorial kicking early on and then look to employ their elusive running game once the big South African forwards start blowing steam. However, a game of rugby is won upfront and the scrum and the breakdown are two areas where the Wallabies need to improve significantly, or players like Genia, Cooper and Folau will start to get visibly frustrated. For the record, the last time Australia played in Cape Town, the home side prevailed 29-17, thanks largely to Morne Steyn who had a total match tally of 24 points. Will it be a similar outcome this week or will the Wallabies produce the performance they have been searching for all season?

Prediction: 

Touring teams love travelling to Cape Town and playing at Newlands due to the charitable environment that surrounds the occasion. Australian rugby is in dire straits and things got worse during the week with Jake White handing in his resignation at the Brumbies. Some time away from the Australian media might well be what the Wallabies needed, and we don’t have to wait long to find out. They are certainly a team that can beat anyone on their day, however, the fact that I am saying that reiterates why this season has been one of their worst in recent memory. This week’s additions in James Horwill for the Wallabies and Fourie du Preez for the Springboks will no doubt have a huge impact on proceedings, but much like the battle in Brisbane, the set pieces and the contest at the breakdown will determine the eventual winner. The Springboks need to embrace the pressure of playing at home and I really do think they have what it takes to claim a rare a season sweep over their archenemies and should they do so they will setup an intriguing ‘final’ against the All Blacks next weekend.

Predicted result:  South Africa to win @ $1.20 – Betfair

Best Bet 2: Australia +12 @ $1.90 – Bet365

Argentina ($10.00) versus New Zealand  ($1.12) 

Fans at the Estadio Cuidad de La Plata in Argentina will welcome the high-flying All Blacks on Saturday evening (Sunday morning Australian time) in a match that sees the number one ranked team in the competition play the cellar dwellers. Apart from their humiliating defeat against the Springboks in Soweto, the Pumas have been more than competitive against the Springboks (Mendoza), All Blacks (Hamilton) and the Wallabies just last weekend (Perth). In their favour, they now have the opportunity to play their final two matches of the tournament in front of crowds that have proved to unsettle many tourists over the years. The All Blacks have hit the ground running in 2013 having not dropped a match and managed to pick up four try bonus points against the Wallabies and more recently the Springboks. They failed to comprehensively beat the Pumas in Wellington, so I have no doubt that they will be out to make a statement in La Plata.

Argentina:

The clash in Perth between the Pumas and Australia is one that doesn’t warrant many words, let alone a whole paragraph. Although the weather killed any chance of a spectacle, the basic errors were inexcusable and for many periods of the match, both teams looked rudderless. The Argentinians did manage to pile on the pressure in the second half and scored a great try through Juan Manuel Leguizamon, his second in successive weeks. It must be said that the Perth fixture was Argentina’s best opportunity to grab their first victory in the tournament, but they will very much be looking forward to the return fixture at the Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario next weekend.

Coach Santiago Phelan has named a new squad with six changes from the dour match against the Wallabies with Patricio Albacete, the most capped Pumas lock returning after a few weeks on the sideline. Eusebio Guinazu is the only other change in the forward pack where he rotates with Agustin Creevy at hooker. The backline has a mass amount of changes including a new centre combination of Marcello Bosch and Santiago Fernandez. Martin Landajo dons the number nine jersey and the speedy Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, known for his incisive running and out and out speed replaces Horacio Agulla on the right wing. It appears that the Pumas management are not settled on who their first choice team is and without consistency and giving combinations that chance to gel, it is hard to see them consistently challenging the world’s best. In saying that, it is only a matter of time before the Pumas take a Southern Hemisphere scalp in this competition, but it would take a near perfect display to rattle a confident All Blacks team. Along with Ireland, Italy and a host of other international nations, Argentina has never defeated the All Blacks either at home or away. In the last four encounters, the All Blacks have scored an average of 34 points and only conceded a touch under 11 points.

New Zealand:  

The All Blacks solidified their position at the top of the IRB world rankings after they successfully weathered the South African storm in Auckland. As you would expect and despite the calibre of the opposition, the All Blacks were as clinical as ever, in the end running in four tries, thanks largely to the numerical advantage they experienced for the majority of the match. When faced with adversity, the All Blacks have proven time and time again that they know how to handle it and this was once again reiterated when Dan Carter left the field early on in the first half with an injured shoulder. He will be out for the rest of the tournament, but should be back in time for the All Black’s end of year tour. The All Blacks suffered more casualties in a classic war of attrition, but the young guns stepped up and showed the way. Hurricanes fly half, Beauden Barrett grasped his opportunity with both hands and made an incisive break shortly after his arrival, which led to Brodie Retallick scoring his first test try. The way he attacks the line leaves a lot of other playmakers in his wake and New Zealand is fortunate to have so many class standoffs in their ranks. Kieran Read, Liam Messam and the bloodied and battered Sam Cane supported Retallick well, but it must be said that in general the backs failed the assert themselves on the match. One area of concern that would have alarm bells ringing for coach Steve Hansen from their home victory was the All Black’s discipline. Ma’a Nonu was sinbinned for yet another trademark shoulder charge and Kieran Read also spent some time on the sidelines. When the All Blacks have a full complement of 15 players on the field, they have proved time and time again that they play on another level, so any handicap will just invite teams back into the contest.

Travelling to Argentina can always be a difficult proposition for touring sides. With that in mind, the coaching panel has named a starting fifteen rife with experience and a bench littered with youthful exuberance. The two changes made by Scott Hansen sees Aaron Cruden replace the injured Dan Carter and Andrew Hore will play his 80th test as he takes over from Dane Coles, who now looks a certainty to be first choice hooker against the Springboks next week. Although there has been some conjecture about the miraculous return of Richie McCaw, the All Blacks have confirmed that he should be ready for next week’s all-important matchup against the Springboks and will sit this one out. In his absence, Kieran Read retains the captain’s armband and will lead his troops into battle. The All Black’s forward pack looks all business and the backline has a great mix of power and pace. The lynchpin in between these two units, Aaron Smith has taken his game to another level after a subdued season with the Highlanders. He is always a threat at the base of the ruck and his support play makes him an anytime try scorer possibility.

The All Blacks know that a bonus point victory in La Plata will almost certainly secure them the Rugby Championship for the second consecutive year. Last year, they had the trophy wrapped up before this corresponding fixture and eventually put on a rugby master class running in seven tries in a 54 – 15 thrashing. Although the Pumas are a different beast at home, the All Black juggernaut will roll on to Johannesburg, where a mouth-watering clash with the Springboks awaits at the world-famous and Rugby World Cup 1995 venue, Ellis Park.

Predicted result:  New Zealand to win comfortably @ $1.12 – Betfair

Best Bet 3: New Zealand -14.5 @ $1.90 – Sportingbet