The Rugby Championship heads into the final round of the competition this weekend before preparations really start to ramp up for the Rugby World Cup in England in September. After a week’s break, players will be raring to go with the trophy still on the line for the Wallabies and the All Blacks, whom ideally clash in a mouth-watering match at ANZ Stadium in Sydney on Saturday night. The Springboks are also in action this weekend when they face the Pumas in Durban, however, both teams have suffered two losses and will be using the match to experiment with new combinations ahead of the final squad selection at the end of the month. There has been a lot of talk about how this tournament isn’t as important in a World Cup year, however, winning becomes a habit and heading to England with no blemishes on your record certainly puts you in good stead to challenge for the William Webb Ellis trophy come the end of October.
Looking back to round two, the Springboks gave the All Blacks one hell of a fright at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, before the class, inventiveness and conditioning of the All blacks brought them home by seven points. Following that match, the Wallabies avenged last season’s loss in Mendoza with a comfortable 34 – 9 victory, on the back of some strong performances from David Pocock and Israel Folau. Both best bets from the last round cashed and I am confident that the Springboks will run riot against the Pumas and I can’t see the Wallabies breaking their four-year losing streak to the All Blacks, even though it is in Sydney. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of International rugby.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -5.0 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: South Africa -17.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
Australia ($2.75) vs New Zealand ($1.46)
All eyes will be on ANZ Stadium in Sydney on Saturday night when the Wallabies and the All Blacks fight it out in The Rugby Championship decider. Australia head into this matchup on the back of two victories over the Springboks in Brisbane and a runaway victory over the Pumas last week in Mendoza. The All Blacks are also yet to drop a match having thumped Argentina in the first round in Christchurch, before crossing the Indian ocean to steal a victory over the Springboks in what was a fascinating encounter. Interestingly enough, the Wallabies haven’t beaten the All Blacks since this corresponding fixture four years ago, a stretch of ten matches, which also took place just prior to the Rugby World Cup. However, a stat I often refer to is that the winning team of the Tri Nations/Rugby Championship has never gone onto win the showpiece event.
Australia team:
Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Dean Mumm, James Horwill, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Drew Mitchell, Matt Giteau, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau
Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Will Skelton, Ben McCalman, Nic White, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale
Looking at the starting team named by Michael Cheika on Thursday, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise to see James Slipper omitted. He is a class player and someone who has a huge work rate, however, he has played a lot of rugby this year and he is looking tired both in the set pieces and around the park. His replacement Scott Sio is an up and coming youngster who has played well for the Brumbies the past couple of seasons. He will pack down alongside Australian Captain Stephen Moore and Sekope Kepu. Dean Mumm and James Horwill find themselves as the new lock pairing, with the reasoning for their selection down to the fact that the Wallabies have gone for two fetchers in the back row. The loose trio consists of the hardworking Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper and David Pocock, a master of the breakdown. Dean Mumm was selected over Will Skelton, primarily to give the Wallabies another lineout jumper, but I do feel like they lose a bit of grunt, something you need in abundance against the All Blacks. Waratahs duo Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley continue their partnership in the halves, with Matt Giteau and Tevita Kuridrani wearing the number 12 and 13 jerseys respectively. Drew Mitchell starts on the left wing, with Adam Ashley-Cooper on the right and Israel Folau has all but made the fullback jersey his own. Cheika has once again named a strong bench with Tatafu Polota-Nau, Greg Holmes and James Slipper listed as the front row replacements, supported by Will Skelton and Ben McCalman. Nic White, Matt Toomua and the versatile Kurtley Beale complete the high numbers on the bench.
New Zealand Team:
Tony Woodcock, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter, Julian Savea, Sonny-Bill Williams, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Ben Smith
Reserves: Codie Taylor, Ben Franks, Nepo Laulala, Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Malakai Fekitoa
Steve Hansen has named a great All Blacks side to take on the Wallabies in Sydney this weekend. Tony Woodcock and Owen Franks are experienced front rankers, with Dane Coles an extremely underrated player. Against the Springboks, he didn’t miss a tackle in his 14 attempts and he also scored a decisive try, cutting through the opposition’s defensive line like an outside back. Look out for him in open field play because he is certainly one of the quickest hookers going around. The reigning World Rugby player of the year Brodie Retallick lines up alongside Luke Romano in the second row, with Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read needing no introduction. Aaron Smith and Dan Carter are in charge of orchestrating their troops around the paddock and Sonny-Bill Williams partners the evergreen Conrad Smith in the centres. Julian Savea is in line to play his first Test match of the season and he is joined by debutant Nehe Milner-Skudder and Ben Smith at fullback. Looking at the bench, Codie Taylor continues to press for World Cup squad selection as a reserve hooker with Ben Franks and Nepo Laulala more than likely to make the plane to England as well. Sam Whitelock will be a first choice starter in the UK and Sam Cane gets his first opportunity of the year after an injury has sidelined him the last few weeks. TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Malakai Fekitoa are all game breakers in their own right and they are a huge part of the All Black’s future moving forwards and could play a key role in this matchup.
Prediction:
As always, the media has done a good job of building the hype for this clash because when you think about it, it is a bit of a hard sell considering the Wallabies haven’t won the Bledisloe Cup since 2002. Alarmingly, the Wallabies haven’t beaten the All Blacks at the ground formerly known as ‘Stadium Australia’ since 2008, but some of you may remember that under Ewen McKenzie, they did manage a 12-all tryless draw last year. This will be Wallabies Coach Michael Cheika first crack at the All Blacks, a challenge that I am sure he is relishing and one that he knows will define the Wallabies status heading into the World Cup. Against the Springboks, the Wallabies left it late, but still managed to get over the top of a decent team and they improved significantly with a resounding win over the Pumas in Mendoza the following week. However, the improvement can’t stop there because the All Blacks are an entirely different beast altogether.
Just when it looked like the All Blacks had met their match against the Springboks in Johannesburg, they hit another gear and used some innovative lineout play to outsmart the South African pack. It’s these one percenters that continue to differentiate New Zealand from the rest of the rugby world. The All Blacks haven’t played anywhere near their best rugby so far this season, but they still have three wins to their name from three attempts. The All Blacks will look to target the underbelly of the Wallabies, their forward pack, but that is nothing new. They will have a huge fight on their hands at the breakdown with the old brigade coming up against the ‘new’ kids on the block. To me the Wallabies look a bit light up front, particularly in the second row and if there is any team in world rugby that can exploit a weakness it is the All Blacks. The Wallabies have had a solid start to the season, but the fact that the Wallabies are winless in four years really shows that the AB’s have their measure, so it is going to take an innovative performance to catch the men from across the ditch off guard. The Wallabies might be able to keep it close at half time, but the All Blacks backs should hold the edge over a team that has chopped and changed their backline quite heavily this season. For me, the All Blacks are going to re-announce themselves with a dominant performance this weekend in Sydney, even though a Wallabies win would probably be better for world rugby.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.46 – William Hill
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -5.0 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet (early twitter play)
South Africa ($1.07) vs Argentina ($9.00)
South Africa and Argentina will close their Rugby Championship accounts on Saturday night at the ‘Shark Tank’ in Durban in what should be an intriguing matchup. South Africa are coming off two narrow losses to the Wallabies and the All Blacks, but things could quite easily have gone their way in both of those Test matches. The Pumas on the other hand are having a torrid time in the Rugby Championship and given Coach Daniel Hourcade’s need to experiment ahead of the Rugby World Cup, they are still yet to field what I believe is their best match day 23. Looking at the history between these two proud rugby nations, the Springboks have never lost to the Pumas, however, the two fixtures last year saw the Springboks only win by a combined margin of nine points.
Argentina Team:
Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Guido Petti, Tomas Lavanini, Pablo Matera, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Leonardo Senatore, Tomas Cubelli, Juan Martin Hernandez, Juan Imhoff, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Marcelo Bosch, Horacio Agulla, Joaquin Tuculet
Reserves: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera, Matias Diaz, Matias Alemanno, Tomas Lezana, Martin Landajo, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Understandably, Argentinian Coach Daniel Hourcade has made eleven changes from the team that got thrashed by the Wallabies a fortnight ago. There are a number of changes in the pack with Manuel Carizza and Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe the most notable omissions. As a result, Guido Petti and Tomas Lavanini form a young second row combination, but I am happy to see Pablo Matera back in the number six jumper, as he is a player with a big future ahead of him. It comes as no surprise that flyhalf Nicolas Sanchez has been dropped for this matchup, with Juan Martin Hernandez getting his first start in The Rugby Championship this season alongside Tomas Cubelli. Winger Juan Imhoff is the only survivor from the Pumas recent match in Mendoza, however, Marcello Bosch, a player who has had some success against the Springboks, starts at outside centre. The bench is quite inexperienced, however, it makes sense to give some of these players a run now as opposed to a group match or playoff fixture at the Rugby World Cup.
South Africa Team:
Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Vincent Koch, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Heinrich Brussow, Marcell Coetzee, Schalk Burger, Ruan Pienaar, Handre Pollard, Bryan Habana, Damien de Allende, Jean de Villiers (Captain), Jesse Kriel, Willie le Roux
Reserves: Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, Marcell van der Merwe, Pieter Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Cobus Reinach, Pat Lambie, Lwazi Mvovo
Looking at the team named by Heyneke Meyer, it is clear that he is after the win as opposed to experimentation. The Beast and Bismarck du Plessis will play a key role in Vincent Koch’s development, with the Stormers front rower in line for his second Test cap this weekend. Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager continue their promising partnership in the second row, with Heinrich Brussow and Schalk Burger joined by Marcell Coetzee, who has recovered from what looked like a season-ending knee injury against the Wallabies in Brisbane. Ruan Pienaar and Handre Pollard play their third consecutive Test in a row this season, with the offensively potent Damien de Allende joined by Jean de Villiers in the centres. It has been an incredible recovery for de Villiers who snapped three ligaments, tore his hamstring in two places and fractured his patella in last December’s match against Wales. He regains the captaincy and his leadership abilities will help South Africa moving forwards. Bryan Habana has owned the Springboks left wing position for many years, whereas de Villiers return has pushed Jesse Kriel to the wing, with Willie le Roux at fullback. It is an all Bulls front row on the bench and Pieter Steph du Toit also makes a comeback on the bench from a long-term injury. It would seem that flanker Siya Kolisi has one shot to make the trip to England this weekend, so expect him to get around twenty minutes off the bench or earlier, if the Boks are on top. Cobus Reinach, Pat Lambie and Lwazi Mvovo round out the bench and all of them will be eager for game time.
Prediction:
In the last two Test matches against the Wallabies and the All Blacks, the Springboks have put themselves in great positions heading into the final 20 minutes, however, on both occasions, a combination of fitness, experience and leadership have let them down. Heyneke Meyer mentioned that when the Springboks went into camp after the Super Rugby season, his players simply weren’t fit enough and that was certainly exploited by their fast-finishing Australasian counterparts. Heyneke Meyer has named a strong outfit with an extremely potent backline and one that could easily run rampant if the Pumas aren’t on their game in Durban. One would think that the return of several stalwarts will provide the Springboks with the balance and experience they’ve been lacking the last couple of weeks, however, it may take time for them to acclimatise to Test match rugby.
Argentina have been good in dribs and drabs so far this season and it is clear that Coach Daniel Hourcade isn’t sure what his best starting 23 is. After watching the Springboks two Test matches to date, the Argentinians will be more than aware that they will have their hands full this week at the breakdown with the Springboks dominating the battle on the ground against the Wallabies and the All Blacks. The inclusions of Juan Martin Hernandez and Marcello Bosch in the backs adds another dimension to their ever-expanding backline play, however, the pack has a huge job on its hands to contain a South African unit that has excelled so far this season. The Springboks are certainly close to clicking and although it might not happen this week with a couple of combinations still maturing, they should still have too many weapons in their arsenal against an underperforming Pumas outfit.
Predicted result: South Africa to win by double digits @ $1.07 – William Hill
Best Bet 2: South Africa -17.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
