The final round of the 2014 edition of The Rugby Championship is upon us after five intriguing rounds of competitive and skilful southern hemisphere action. The All Blacks locked up the Rugby Championship trophy for the third consecutive season last week with a comfortable win over the Pumas and the Springboks produced a late surge to easily defeat the Wallabies and secure the title of being the second best rugby team in the world. This weekend’s matches have been setup perfectly with the number one ranked team (New Zealand) playing number two (South Africa) and we will also be treated to an intriguing contest between the teams in position three (Australia) and four (Argentina). Both clashes will be of the highest order, but for me a match that would be fitting of a Rugby World Cup Final in England (SA vs NZ) won’t be a tournament decider, but it will be worth a watch given the rivalry and the fierce nature of recent matchups. Given that I am currently in the USA on holiday, I won’t be able to make additional twitter plays but fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby as the giants of the southern hemisphere rugby battle it out for bragging rights ahead of a huge year in 2015.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -1.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Australia -4.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
South Africa ($2.05) vs New Zealand ($1.78)
The world famous Ellis Park will play host to a mouth-watering clash between the reigning Rugby World Cup and Rugby Championship champions, the All Blacks and the Springboks on Saturday night. The rich rivalry and hard-nosed action that these two rugby giants produce will attract viewers from all over the world given that the Springboks have looked like the only team that can potentially dethrone the All Blacks over the past couple of seasons. Last weekend, the Springboks left it late against the Wallabies in Cape Town, however, the impact of their bench was the difference and they eventually walked away with a 29 – 10 victory. The All Blacks juggernaut continued to steamroll their opposition, this time in La Plata, where they managed to grind the Argentinians into submission with a comprehensive 33 – 14 victory, securing the Rugby Championship in the process. This corresponding fixture last year between the AB’s and the Springboks was one of the best matches in recent memory as the Springboks were forced to play an attacking brand of rugby needing to win and secure a four-try bonus point, however, as has been the case for some time, the All Blacks composure and class came to the fore and proved why they have the reputation they do.
South Africa
Like many teams in world rugby, matches against the All Blacks are of the utmost importance to the Springboks and their passionate fans. The All Blacks success has come on the back of professionalism, class and balance and very few teams have managed to outsmart them for a very long, long time. Word from the Bok camp has been situated around winning the kicking battle in Johannesburg, which some might view as ‘negative tactics’, but it is certainly a strategy that has worked well for the Boks in the past. Very few teams can run the ball against the All Blacks and profit and as a result coach Heyneke Meyer will most likely adopt the 10-man rugby game plan placing emphasis on the set piece and gaining territorial advantage. Heyneke Meyer has made just the one change to the starting fifteen this week bringing back Bismarck du Plessis for Cheetahs hooker Adriaan Strauss. Bismarck du Plessis will be looking to rediscover the form that had him pencilled in as one of the best forwards in the game and what better way to do so than against the All Blacks, a team he has had a poor disciplinary record against in recent times. Number eight Duane Vermuelen has been given until game day to pass a fitness test after suffering rib cartilage damage last weekend against the Wallabies. Vermuelen’s physical presence is a huge positive to his game and given he was one of he best players on the field in Wellington, his inclusion is vital if the Springboks want to win the collisions this weekend. Should Vermuelen not recover in time, Schalk Burger will start at the back of the scrum and it will be good to see what he can offer as Vermuelen’s backup heading towards next year’s show piece.
New Zealand
Time and time again, I make mention of the All Blacks and their unparalleled achievements both at home and abroad. As aforementioned, New Zealand wrapped up their third consecutive tournament last week in front of a hostile crowd in La Plata. The forward pack stood up admirably with Kevin Mealamu turning back the clock with a number of trademark carries, Sam Whitelock controlled the lineouts and Jerome Kaino and Richie McCaw were industrious at the coal face. In the backs, Beauden Barrett is developing into a complete player with so many weapons in his artillery and the back three of Savea, Smith and Dagg were sensational, with the latter contributing heavily and a huge reason why the All Blacks won. Looking at the team named this week by successful coach Steve Hansen, there are two injury-enforced changes in the tight five with Joe Moody (maiden Test start) replacing Wyatt Crockett and Jeremy Thrush comes in for the impressive Brodie Retallick. Captain Richie McCaw will break yet another record this week as he is in line to make his 134th appearance for the All Blacks, surpassing the great Colin Meads. The backline remains unchanged and it certainly does have a lethal look to it comprising of players with blistering pace, overwhelming power and the X factor that could well and truly be the difference at the scene of some of the All Blacks most disheartening losses. The All Blacks bench also possesses a number of Test experience and this will be crucial given how the Springbok bench turned the match around against the Wallabies last week in Cape Town.
Prediction
Billed as one of the biggest fixtures of the year, the matchup this weekend between the Springboks and the All Blacks in Johannesburg will be one not to be missed. The All Blacks don’t have the best record at Ellis Park, hence the reason why the South African Rugby Board continue to choose the venue for these teams, but the All Blacks have to be one of the best sporting teams on the planet when it comes to overcoming adversity and just being able to find ways to continue to win. The pressure is off the All Blacks having wrapped up the tournament last weekend, so the Springboks will look to feast on any complacency that might be there, but one must admit that the All Blacks very rarely have an off day. Whether or not the Springboks can rediscover that big match temperament that served them so well at the end of the last decade remains to be seen, but it is hard to bet against an All Blacks team that continues to break records and cement themselves as Rugby World Cup favourites in England next year.
Predicted result: All Blacks to win by less than 10 @ $1.78 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -1.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Argentina ($2.55) vs Australia ($1.53)
A hostile environment at the Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza will welcome a mentally and physical bruised Australian team on Sunday morning Australian time. The Pumas are yet to claim their maiden Rugby Championship win despite coming so close to the Springboks and the Wallabies in recent weeks. On the other hand, the Wallabies have wrapped up third place in this competition for the second year in a row and they have shown that they have some way to go before they can match it consistently with the All Blacks and the Springboks. The corresponding fixture last year in Rosario saw the Wallabies run riot outscoring the home side seven tries to two en route to a 54 – 17 victory. Although neither of these teams can shake up the final placings on the Championship’s points tally, a win for either team here is vital with the Autumn Internationals looming.
Argentina
Argentina has threatened their southern hemisphere rivals since the inception of the competition without having anything to show for it. Their forward pack continues to hold their own particularly thanks to their impressive front row consisting of Marcos Ayerza, captain Agustin Creevy and company. However, in recent weeks they haven’t been able to field a full-strength back row with Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe back in Europe for the birth of his second son and Juan Manuel Leguizamon has succumbed to a niggling calf injury. The battle of the breakdown is a key component of any match and coming up against Scott Fardy, who is slowly starting to show some of his best form and the gladiatorial Michael Hooper, the Pumas could be in for a long night at the office. Additionally, Coach Daniel Hourcade has decided to field Bath winger Horacio Agulla at outside centre, which is a crucial position both in terms of defensive organisation and creating space for their outside backs. I just don’t think he can cut it on the international stage in the centres, especially having ousted Marcello Bosch in the number thirteen jumper. Nicolas Sanchez continues to be a consistent attacking threat at flyhalf and the outside backs comprising of Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, Juan Imhoff and Joaquin Tuculet possess the flair that can produce some entertaining rugby, however, they simply lack the size and creativity to consistently trouble their opposition. Either way, I just can’t see the Pumas securing their fifth victory over Australia and one feels that they will be looking to snatch some much-needed victories against European opposition in November.
Australia
The Wallabies will be disappointed with the way they couldn’t close the game out last week in Cape Town given that they made a monumental 252 tackles. In the end, their bench lacked the experience and punch and were completely overwhelmed with the Springboks scoring two tries and a drop goal in the final ten minutes. Ewen McKenzie mentioned in his post-match interview that he did feel that the Wallabies had the better of the Springboks for the first 60 minutes and that he was really gutted for his players given that the scoreboard wasn’t a fair reflection of their evening’s work. James Slipper continues to go from strength to strength and has now proved that he is one of the hardest working loosehead props in the game. He made 24 out of the 59 tackles that the Wallabies front row had to make last weekend and also managed to carry the ball well into a monstrous Springbok pack. In the backs, the Fijian-born Tevita Kuridrani played his best game in the Wallabies gold, making 17 tackles and creating havoc for the Springboks defensive line pretty much every time he touched the ball. His bullocking running style and agility in and around the tackle looks to have secured him the outside centre position for the next few fixtures. Looking at the team named by Ewen McKenzie this week, the forward pack has needed reinforcements with both Rob Simmons (concussion) and Ben McCalman (shoulder) ruled out and they have been replaced by fellow Reds lock James Horwill and Scott Higginbotham respectively. The backline remains the same, however, there is no room for Kurtley Beale after a mid-flight altercation took place between Beale and a Wallabies female staff member. One gets the impression that Beale’s latest indiscretion could be the final straw, which is a real shame given the impact he has had in recent weeks.
Prediction
It is a battle of the desperates this week and an energetic hometown crowd will do everything in their power to see their team win their first Rugby Championship match from 18 attempts. The Pumas are a team that are showing intermittent signs that they have what it takes to develop into a class outfit, whereas the Wallabies need to produce the goods to try and turn their season around ahead of the Autumn Internationals. The Argentinians are dogged and hardworking, however, they lack the X-factor to really take the top teams in world rugby out of their comfort zone. For me, this is a game that the Wallabies know they need to win and their big game players like Slipper, Hooper, Higginbotham and Folau should propel them to a solid win ahead of their big match against the All Blacks in Brisbane in two weeks time.
Predicted result: Australia to win by more than a try @ $1.53 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Australia -4.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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