After a weekend jam packed with provincial rugby on both sides of the equator, The Rugby Championship enters the penultimate round when the Springboks look to avenge their loss to the Wallabies in Cape Town and the Pumas welcome tournament leaders the All Blacks to La Plata. The Springboks need a victory after two narrow losses to the Wallabies and the All Blacks, while the Wallabies would love nothing more than to beat the home side ahead of their meeting with the Pumas in Argentina next week. Argentina have played spirited rugby throughout the competition, but the All Blacks continue to stake their claim to be one of the most successful sporting brands on earth. Provincial rugby around the world continues to be hit and miss, but I must say that I am thoroughly enjoying the NRC, Australia’s third-tier competition. Although the viability of the tournament is questionable, it is great to see the gap bridged between club and provincial rugby in Australia. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby as the giants of the southern hemisphere rugby battle it out for supremacy.
Best Bet 1: Australia +8.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -15.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
South Africa ($1.30) vs Australia ($3.60)
For the second year in a row, Newlands Stadium in Cape Town, one of the most recognised rugby grounds in South Africa, plays host to a battered Springbok outfit and a Wallaby side searching for a season clean sweep of South Africa. The Springboks haven’t had the best campaign so far securing two narrow victories over the Pumas, before handing the Wallabies the victory in the dying moments in Perth. Last time out the Springboks came agonisingly close to defeating the mighty All Blacks in Wellington, however, they lacked the composure in the dying moments and eventually succumbed. Similarly, the Wallabies campaign was heading in the wrong direction until a rejuvenating victory over the Springboks got things back on track and that was followed up with a hard fought win over Argentina on the Gold Coast two weeks ago. The Wallabies haven’t won in South Africa since 2011, so a rare win in the republic this weekend would be a huge boost to their tournament chances and general team morale.
South Africa
The matchup against the Wallabies this weekend could quite possibly be season defining given that another loss to the Wallabies would most likely be followed by a loss to the All Blacks in Johannesburg. There is immense pressure on Heyneke Meyer and the Springboks to secure at least one win over the next two weekends, especially given the Rugby World Cup is only twelve months away. The tour of Australasia yielded some positives, however, the main key performance indicator comes down to whether or not you win or lose. What would be frustrating for a South African fan is that the Springboks have had solid starts to each match this tournament and they will want to pick up from where they left off in Wellington this weekend having caused concern for the All Blacks and their fans in the closing stages of their previous fixture. It would be fair to say that the Springboks looked as good as what England were in the June Internationals, but it was simply a case of being close, but no cigar. Springbok defensive coach John McFarland has stated that he has been pleased with the defensive efforts so far from his troops given the duration they had to play without the ball in Perth and Wellington. Breaking this down, the Springboks poor tactical kicking probably cost them both matches, however, the attacking mindset from playing away to playing at home seems to differ significantly and I expect the Boks to run a lot more this weekend in front of their own fans.
Injuries to flanker Francois Louw and halfback Ruan Pienaar has forced Springbok Coach Heyneke Meyer to make changes to his squad this weekend. The front row remains the same with Tendai Mtawawira, Adriaan Strauss and Jannie du Plessis in front of Eben Etzebeth and Victor Matfield in the second row. Cheetahs wildcard Tebo ‘Oupa’ Mohoje has been selected in the number seven jersey, alongside Marcell Coetzee and the bullocking Duane Vermuelen who was one of the best players on the field in Wellington. In the halves, Francois Hougaard comes in for the injured Ruan Pienaar to partner Handre Pollard, who showed his true potential in Wellington, in the halves. Captain Jean de Villiers lines up for his 101st Springbok Test cap alongside Jan Serfontein in the centres. Serfontein has transformed into the defensive lynch pin in the South African backline and adopted the role that Jacques Fourie generally plays when fit. His tackle count over the past two fixtures (24 vs New Zealand and 21 vs Australia) has been impressive, however, he still lacks that punch that many of the world’s best centres have. Cornal Hendricks has been a prolific try scorer on the wing since he made his debut earlier this season and he will once again partner Bryan Habana and the livewire Willie le Roux. It is somewhat startling that Bismarck du Plessis still can’t get a start over Adriaan Strauss, however, I expect him to be one of the first players named on the team sheet to face the All Blacks next weekend. Bakkies Botha, Schalk Burger, Patrick Lambie and JP Pietersen also find themselves on a very experience bench.
Australia
Australian rugby is definitely on the rise, however, there is still a lot left for Ewen McKenzie and staff to do to make the Wallabies a legitimate Rugby World Cup contender in England next year. Last year was a disastrous season for the Wallabies which saw them lose all of their matches to the All Blacks and the Springboks, but the Wallabies recent win over the Boks was critical for their psyche moving forwards. There appears to be a bit more grunt in the pack spearheaded by James Slipper in the front row and captain Michael Hooper has cemented himself as one of the best openside flankers in the world. Matt Toomua is extremely consistent and Israel Folau continues to display his offensive brilliance against any opposition he faces. However, if the Wallabies want to continue building that momentum, they will need to beat the Springboks this weekend and then do the double on Argentina in Mendoza next weekend.
Apart from Saia Fainga’a at hooker, Ewen McKenzie has named a strong line up to face the Boks this weekend in Cape Town. The Wallabies enjoy playing the game at pace as they haven’t always been up with the play when it comes to the set piece. The Wallabies will look to tire the burly Bok forwards working them from right to left, but it will take a great deal of patience to expose what has been a pretty study defense this far. In the front row, James Hanson finds himself on the bench, with Saia Fainga’a at hooker as a result of Tatafu Polota-Nau’s latest injury. Fainga’a will partner James Slipper and Sekope Kepu in the front row. Sam Carter and Rob Simmons remain a safe, but far from imposing second row combination with Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper and Ben McCalman selected at number eight. In the halves, Nick Phipps remains the first Ewen McKenzie choice half back, however, the return of Will Genia to the squad is at least another week away with Nic White selected on the bench. Genia’s eventual return will be a huge boost to the Wallabies given that on his day he is quite possibly the best scrum half in the world. Brumbies centres Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani continue partnership in the midfield with Joe Tomane earning a spot on the left wing. Adam Ashley-Cooper continues on the right wing with Israel Folau due for a big game selected at fullback. On the bench, players like James Horwill, Scott Higginbotham and Kurtley Beale should expect to see some game time as well.
Prediction
Touring teams love travelling to Cape Town and playing at Newlands due to the charitable environment that surrounds the occasion. Australian rugby has come on in leaps and bounds over the past 12 months, however, there is still a lot of room for improvement. Like most matches, the set piece (scrum and lineout) and the contest at the breakdown will play a huge role in the outcome of this match and the Springboks have the edge here. Weather forecasts appear to be conducive to running rugby and I expect quite a high-scoring match. The Springboks often embrace the pressure of playing at home and I really do think they have what it takes to balance the season ledger and remain the second ranked team in the world, but their injury-depleted line up won’t have it all their own way.
Predicted result: Springboks to win by a narrow margin @ $1.30 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Australia +8.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
Argentina ($6.75) vs New Zealand ($1.12)
Fans at the Estadio Cuidad de La Plata in Argentina will be in for a treat this weekend when the high-flying All Blacks tackle the Pumas on Saturday evening (Sunday morning Australian time). It is a match that sees the number one ranked team in the competition (and the world) play the cellar dwellers and the twelfth best team in the world according to the IRB rankings. In the Pumas favour, they now have the opportunity to play their final two matches of the tournament in front of crowds that have proved to unsettle many tourists over the years. Unsurprisingly, the All Blacks have hit the ground running in 2014 having not dropped a match and managed to pick up four try bonus points against the Wallabies and they subsequently beat a dogged South African outfit in Wellington. It is important to note that the Argentinians are still searching for that elusive maiden victory over the All Blacks, but they will be doing their utmost in La Plata to rewrite the record books this weekend.
Argentina
The Pumas have been more than competitive against the Springboks (Pretoria), All Blacks (Hamilton) and the Wallabies just two weeks ago (Gold Coast), but it appears that it will still be some time before the Pumas enter a Rugby Championship match as the favourite. Daniel Hourcade has done a great job in instilling belief amongst his troops and developing patterns that suit their personnel, however, the quality of the opposition that they have been matched up against are simply too good. The Pumas have shown over the past month that a win is on the horizon, but they are currently lacking that killer instinct and players with game-breaking abilities to really alarm their opposition. Their forwards have been spectacular this series, competing well at the set piece and at the breakdown, however, there needs to be some more innovation and initiative shown in the backs that they have what it takes to take it to their opposition. Argentina’s most recent game against the Wallabies was one that showcased some of their worst rugby and best rugby of the season. The Wallabies raced out to an early lead only for a resilient Argentina team to peg them back and come within metres of avoiding their first loss in this tournament’s history. The inconsistency has hurt the Pumas and unfortunately for them, this is something that can’t be fixed over night. Daniel Hourcade has made three changes to his squad this week with Tomas Cubelli starting ahead of Martin Landajo at scrum half, Benjamin Macome replaces the impressive Juan Manuel Leguizamon and Tomas Lavanini takes over from Matias Alemano in the second row.
New Zealand
The All Blacks continue to go from strength to strength boasting an unbeaten run of 21 games over the past two seasons. With only one loss recorded during Coach Steve Hansen’s tenure, the All Blacks brand continues to grow into the one of the finest in world sport. The All Blacks will know that the Pumas will be tough opposition in La Plata, having seen the Springboks almost lose only a month or so ago. The All Blacks have been one of the few teams that have travelled to Argentina and put on a cricket score in front of the hostile crowd and I think that Argentina are one of those teams that just don’t believe they can beat the reigning world champions. For years, discipline has been of the utmost importance in the All Blacks setup and Aaron Cruden’s omission from the squad due to a drinking-related incident must be commended. Cruden’s indiscretion comes at a bad time for him given the ongoing battle that he is involved in with Hurricanes flyhalf Beauden Barrett. Given that the game is likely to be played at breakneck speed, this is a great opportunity for Barrett to one-up Cruden, ahead of the big match next weekend. Looking at the team named for Saturday’s encounter, Kevin Mealamu has been selected at hooker in place of Dane Coles who has retuned home to be with his wife for the birth of their child. Mealamu will partner Wyatt Crockett and Owen Franks up front with Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock in the second row. Jerome Kaino returns to the match day squad at blindside flanker to partner two future hall-of-famers in captain Richie McCaw and Kieran Read. Aaron Smith and the aforementioned Beauden Barrett have been selected in the halves with Malakai Fekitoa tasked to fill the void left at inside centre with Ma’a Nonu ruled out for the rest of the year. Conrad Smith’s experience will be vital in the defensive channel of outside centre and he will also play a key role in distributing the ball to Julian Savea, Ben Smith and Israel Dagg who needs a big performance at fullback. Chiefs hooker Nathan Harris has been selected on the bench in his first International in what will be a proud moment for both him and his family.
Prediction
The All Blacks know that a bonus point victory in La Plata will almost certainly secure them a three-peat in the Rugby Championship. Two seasons ago, the Kiwis had the trophy wrapped up before this corresponding fixture and eventually put on a rugby master class running in seven tries in a 54 – 15 thrashing. Although the Pumas are a different beast at home and the fact that they failed to comprehensively beat the Pumas in Hamilton, I am confident that the All Blacks will be out to make a statement in La Plata ahead of what will be a mouth-watering clash against the Springboks next week at Ellis Park in Johannesburg.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win convincingly @ $1.12 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand -15.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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