The Rugby Championship returned last weekend with two rain-effected matches in Napier (New Zealand vs Argentina) and Perth (Australia vs South Africa). The home team prevailed in both fixtures, although it is fair to say that there were a number of inexcusable refereeing decisions that not only buried the Pumas in the second half against the All Blacks, but led Australia’s revival with Bryan Habana in his 100th match being yellow-carded for a tackle that deserved no more than a penalty at best. Too many fixtures are being determined by poor refereeing decisions and in turn are robbing fans of pleasure and unions of financial gains. Looking ahead to this weekend, the Springboks return to Wellington, the scene of their quarterfinal exit at the 2011 Rugby World Cup to face the world champions and the Wallabies will host the winless Pumas on the Gold Coast.
The ITM Cup (New Zealand), the Currie Cup and the NRC are all in full swing with some spectacular individual talent and team performances on display, however, the depth of New Zealand rugby is apparent in comparison to their Trans-Tasman rivals Australia. Much like last year, my main focus will be on The Rugby Championship and I will select matches from other tournaments where I see valuable betting options available. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -8.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Argentina +11.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
New Zealand ($1.26) vs South Africa ($4.00)
All eyes will be on Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Saturday evening as the nation’s capital plays host to a blockbusting affair between the All Blacks and the Springboks. Week-in and week-out the All Blacks continue to cement themselves as the best rugby playing nation on earth, however, until last weekend, the Springboks had won nine in a row as well and are well capable of beating the All Blacks on their day. In fact, it was the Springboks who were the last team to beat New Zealand on home soil in 2009. Last weekend in Napier, the All Blacks continued their winning ways with a classy win over Argentina in wet conditions, whereas the Springbok juggernaut was halted when the South Africans managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against the Wallabies in Perth. This encounter is always one of the biggest on the international calendar and given the quality of rugby and the success both of teams have achieved over the past couple of seasons, strap yourselves in because this will be test rugby at it’s finest.
New Zealand
Over the years of writing rugby blogs, there have been a number of teams that have left me wordless due to consistently poor performances. On the contrary, the All Blacks continue to go from strength to strength and their well-oiled machine appears to be almost bulletproof. No team in world rugby can boast a combination of power, pace, skill and possess an aura like the All Blacks do and they continue to prove that no matter what the conditions are or the circumstance, the All Blacks are favourites. Last weekend’s 28 – 9 victory over Argentina in Napier was just a case of the All Blacks being too good. The Pumas fought gallantly and tackled their hearts out, but the All Blacks from one to fifteen can all play match-winning roles and Julian Savea, the bullocking winger, scored a brace of tries, taking his record in Test rugby to 26 tries in 25 games. Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick and Richie McCaw led the charge up front and allowed Aaron Smith and Beauden Barrett to control proceedings for most of the match before Julian Savea took over and proved why he is rated as the best winger in the world.
All Blacks coach Steve Hansen has been forced to make a few changes this week with both Sam Whitelock and flanker Liam Messam injured during last week’s clash with the Pumas. Hurricanes lock Jeremy Thrush has been elevated into the starting line-up and Blues flanker Steven Luatua will also receive his first start for some time. Other than that, the forward pack remains the same with Wyatt Crockett, Dane Coles and Owen Franks selected in the front row. Brodie Retallick continues to be one of the form forwards in the world with an iron-man like work rate and great skills for a big man and his combination with captain Richie McCaw and the impressive Kieran Read often put the All Blacks in good positions. Aaron Cruden has returned from a chest injury to displace Beauden Barrett and Cruden will be looking to reunite with Aaron Smith in the halves. Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith need little mention being the most successful centre pairing in history, while Israel Dagg retains his spot at fullback, with Ben Smith and Julian ‘the bus’ Savea on the left wing. Looking at the bench, Blues lock Patrick Tuipulotu will make an impact when given some time, as will Sam Cane and Beauden Barrett. The Hurricanes general had a solid game last week expressing his instinctive qualities with aplomb, however, his goal kicking wasn’t up to missing four shots at goal. In saying that, Barrett is a specialist at exploiting tired defences late in matches and is always good value in the last try scorer market.
South Africa
The Springboks will be very frustrated last week having let a solid lead slip away against the Wallabies in Perth. Although they didn’t play their best rugby, they did enough to put themselves in a position to achieve what is usually a rare win in Australia. Their first loss of the season was met with a lot of criticism towards both the players and the referees after some elementary mistakes were made. South Africa’s disciplinary issues, whether warranted or not, continue to plague them and the Wallabies capitalised on their one-man advantage. The Springboks know that they have to lift their game this weekend as playing the All Blacks away is the ultimate challenge and they will need to ensure that they keep fifteen men on the park at all times if they are to be competitive in Wellington.
Springboks coach Heyneke Meyer has made a couple of surprising team selections ahead of the big match against the All Blacks this weekend. In the front row, Adriaan Strauss retains his place ahead of Bismarck du Plessis at hooker with Tendai Mtawarira and Jannie du Plessis due to pack down alongside him. Eben Etzebeth and vice-captain Victor Matfield retain their spots in the second row, as do Marcell Coetzee, Francois Louw and the rampaging Duane Vermuelen at number eight. It is very rare to see two fetchers on the side of the scrum for South Africa, given Meyer’s preference for a big ball-running, lineout jumping blindside flanker.
In the backs, Ruan Pienaar remains the first choice scrumhalf due to Fourie du Preez’s absence, but youngster Handre Pollard has been thrown into the deep end for his first start against the All Blacks at this level. Pollard was in sublime form for the Baby Boks (under 20) in New Zealand this year, however, this is a huge step up and I wouldn’t say his performances against the Pumas were convincing, either at home or away. In saying that, it is obvious that Pollard is a prospect for the future and the way he plays the game could see a shift in attacking mentality for the Boks.
Jean de Villiers will play his 100th match for his nation this weekend and will partner Jan Serfontein who was kept busy on defense by Tevita Kuridrani last weekend. JDV has been a great servant to both Springbok and international rugby and whether the Boks win or lose on the weekend, his achievements should be celebrated. Bryan Habana had a game to forget last weekend, but he retains his place on the wing alongside try-scoring machine Cornal Hendricks and the lively Willie le Roux. All eyes will be on Bismarck du Plessis when he comes onto the field in the second half and his teammates in Warren Whitely and Patrick Lambie will also look to make a positive impact late in the game.
Prediction
The All Blacks are one of the most successful sporting teams of all time, with a winning success rate of just under 90% and have only lost one match over the past three seasons. In saying that, if there was one team over the past few seasons that has caused the All Blacks a great deal of trouble, it is the Springboks. It will come as no surprise to New Zealand that South Africa will look to bully them across the park, but the All Blacks will expose South Africa’s one-dimensional play in they aren’t accurate at everything they do. The All Blacks and the Springboks have been involved in some colossal battles over the years, but the All Blacks have proved that at home they are a different beast and nothing short of an exceptional performance by the Springboks will get them the chocolates this weekend in Wellington.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win by more than a try @ $1.26 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -8.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Australia ($1.21) vs Argentina ($4.60)
Cbus Super Stadium on the Gold Coast will play host to the bottom of the log clash between Australia and Argentina on Saturday night. The Wallabies will have breathed a huge sigh of relief having orchestrated a come from behind victory over the Springboks (24– 23) last weekend in Perth to keep their Rugby Championship campaign alive with their first victory. The Pumas on the other hand fought bravely for most of the match against the world champion All Blacks before the class of the home side prevailed leaving the Pumas winless from three matches. Historically, the Argentinians best shot of victory against their fellow southern hemisphere nations has been against the Wallabies having won four times and last year in Perth was almost their fifth narrowly going down 13 – 14 in a dour affair.
Australia
After two tough matches against the raining world champions, the Wallabies will be confident heading into their match with the Argies this weekend after narrowly beating a strong Springbok team in Perth. The Wallabies pack did enough to gain parity with the Boks and Bernard Foley, Tevita Kuridrani and Israel Folau had strong games in the backs. Although, it must be said that Folau may have been found out for his poor kicking as the Springboks peppered him all night and gained a lot of territory in the process. Rob Horne will remember that match for a long time scoring the match-winning try before Bernard Foley’s kicking once again came up trumps. It was a good win for the Wallabies and one that they probably wouldn’t have gotten away in recent years, so the signs of moving forward are definitely there for Ewen McKenzie and his men.
Australian coach Ewen McKenzie has made three changes to his squad this week to take on the abrasive Argentinians. Wallabies hooker Tatafu Polota-Nau has been rushed back from injury into the starting fifteen in what will be his 50th cap for Australia. As a result, James Hanson shifts to the bench. Polota-Nau will partner Waratahs teammate Sekope Kepu and Wallabies vice-captain James Slipper. For the third weekend in a row, Sam Carter and Rob Simmons remain the second row duo and they will play alongside Scott Fardy, captain Michael Hooper and new number eight Ben McCalman who comes in for the injured Wycliff Palu. Nick Phipps’ speedy service has been rewarded with another starting cap and his partnership with Wallabies goal kicking sharp shooter Bernard Foley will get another week to impress the selectors. Matt Toomua has been consistent in the number 12 jersey and his provincial partnership with Tevita Kuridrani was evident last week with the Wallabies number thirteen having a superb game against the Springboks. Last week’s try-scoring hero Rob Horne retains his place on the wing, with Peter Betham also gifted a start in place of the injured Adam Ashley-Cooper. Israel Folau is a player that will be penciled in every week and I am excited to see how much havoc he can wreak against Argentina. Ewen McKenzie has also selected a very dynamic and versatile bench with players like James Horwill, Scott Higginbotham and Kurtley Beale sure to once again make an impact.
Argentina
It doesn’t come as a surprise that a lot of coach Daniel Hourcade’s selections have been based around building towards the Rugby World Cup next year. Although the Argentinians haven’t won any games so far this tournament, it is by far their best showing in their third attempt at usurping their southern hemisphere counterparts. The real test is going to be how they back up this weekend on the Gold Coast, but there is no denying that they look fitter, better prepared and they appear to have more depth. Speaking of selections, Hourcade has opted to keep changes to a minimum. The front row of Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy and Ramiro Herrera have been impressive and matched up nicely against some of the worlds best tight forwards in recent weeks. Matias Alemanno will join Mariano Galarza in the second row after Tomas Lavinini’s serves a one-week suspension for an indiscretion committed on Richie McCaw. Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Leonardo Senatore form a dangerous back row and Martin Landajo and Nicholas Sanchez continue their promising partnership in the halves. Juan Martin Hernandez and Marcelo Bosch continue in the centres, but there are two changes on the wing with Juan Imhoff and Manuel Montero replacing Horacio Agulla and Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino. Joaquin Tuculet continues his time in the 15 jumper after a few notable performances.
Prediction
The Wallabies will be buoyed by their referee-assisted victory last weekend in Perth and will look to remain in the winner’s circle this weekend against a very dogged Argentinian side. The Pumas will also feel as if this is their best shot at scoring a rare overseas win so the match is poised quite nicely. Both teams were involved in bruising encounters last weekend and I expect the game to be much more free-flowing than the All Blacks match with the Springboks earlier in the evening. Initially I had that at the end of 80 minutes, when Glen Jackson blows his whistle, the Wallabies to be comfortably leading, however, with a lot of rain around and thunderstorms predicted this evening, things could get quite scrappy and you have to back the Argentinian scrum. They should be able to cover the +11.5 handicap in the wet.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.21 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Argentina +11.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
