After a week’s break, The Rugby Championship returns this weekend with the All Blacks hosting the Pumas in Napier and the Wallabies welcome the Springboks to Perth, a place where the tourists have had some success in recent years. Round two saw New Zealand flex their muscles and dispel any signs that their rise to supremacy was stalling and the Springboks managed to secure a gritty come-from-behind victory over the Pumas in Salta. The standard and quality of rugby has been high so far, but the match in Perth this weekend will be a good gauge as to how good or how poor the South Africans and the Australians currently are. The ITM Cup (New Zealand), the Currie Cup and the NRC are all in full swing with some spectacular individual talent and team performances on display, however, the depth of New Zealand rugby is apparent in comparison to their Trans-Tasman rivals Australia. Much like last year, my main focus will be on The Rugby Championship and I will select matches from other tournaments where I see valuable betting options available. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: Argentina +27.5 (vs New Zealand) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: South Africa +3.5 (vs Australia) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Note: I will post more plays on twitter
New Zealand ($1.02) vs Argentina ($15.00)
The third round of the Rugby Championship kicks off in Napier on Saturday evening when New Zealand hosts the resurgent Argentinians. The All Blacks haven’t played at McLean Park since beating Manu Samoa in 1996 and with a packed house expected, the All Blacks will be looking to emulate their recent successes in front of a crowd that doesn’t see too much Test match rugby. After a poor outing in Sydney in Round one, the All Blacks comprehensively outclassed the Wallabies 51 – 20 in a statement-making match and the home side will be looking to continue on from their devastating win over the Aussies. Despite narrowly losing both matches to South Africa, Argentina has had a positive start to the competition and they will be hoping to secure their first win ever over the All Blacks this weekend to stay in the running for this year’s title.
New Zealand
Just when the All Blacks appeared to show a few chinks in their armour having drawn 12 – 12 with the Wallabies in Sydney in round one, they put together one of their most dominant displays in years burying Australia on their sacred turf at Eden Park in Auckland. It was a huge statement by the home side and one that I am sure many International teams and fans around the world would’ve appreciated after such an all-rounded performance. In the process, Coach Steve Hansen secured his 30th win from 33 attempts (with two draws) as All Blacks coach and more importantly, New Zealand sipped out of the Bledisloe Cup post-match for the 12th consecutive season. The All Blacks pack was enormous once again with four players remaining the top tacklers of the competition so far. Richie McCaw spent only his second stint in the sin bin in his career, however, he returned to score two tries and led his troops around the field with aplomb. The All Blacks scrum was ruthless and as a result were rewarded with a penalty try, while the backline clicked into fifth gear on turnover ball and scored some magnificent tries in the process. It was a fantastic performance by the All Blacks, one I won’t forget for a long time, but the one thing I know for certain is that they will not stop there. New Zealand will look to improve on their Eden Park triumph and if they play anywhere near as good as they did in Auckland, Argentina are going to be in for a long night at the office.
Illustrious coach Steve Hansen has made three changes to his team to face the Argentinians this weekend. Unsurprisingly, the forward pack remains unchanged after handing Australia a heavy beating up front. For a while now, who to play at hooker has been somewhat of a concern for New Zealand, however, Hurricanes hooker Dane Coles has grown into the role nicely and has been putting himself into some ‘dark places’ for the benefit of the team. Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock have cemented themselves as the best second row combination in the game and they will be licking their lips at thought of playing against the Springboks next weekend. Liam Messam, Captain Richie McCaw and Kieran Read round out a dynamic back row and should the Argentinians want to get anything out of this game, they will have to find a way to negate these three stalwarts. The lively Aaron Smith remains the All Blacks first choice scrumhalf, however, he will partner Hurricanes pivot Beauden Barrett this weekend after Aaron Cruden has had to pull out after failing to recover from an injury sustained against the Wallabies at Eden Park. Barrett has been in fine form this season, however, this will be his first start for the All Blacks in the 10 jersey, having started twice before at fullback and coming off the bench on 19 occasions. Interestingly, Barrett is yet to lose a game in his national team’s colours, which is an impressive feat. In the centres, Ma’a Nonu returns to partner Conrad Smith and Israel Dagg’s return to fullback pushes Ben Smith onto the wing in place of the injured Cory Jane. Dagg’s composure and big boot at the back is better suited to the conditions expected this weekend and Ben Smith still remains a dangerous threat on the wing. Hanson has also named some strong players on the bench including the likes of Sam Cane, Colin Slade and Malakai Fekitoa.
Argentina
Argentina will be satisfied with the way they have played so far, securing two losing bonus points to the second ranked team in the world, South Africa. Their forwards have muscled up extremely well, both in the set piece and in the loose and flyhalf Nicholas Sanchez has marshalled his troops around well, with fullback Joaquin Tuculet making a real name for himself against the Springboks. Coach Daniel Hourcade hasn’t had the best year with the national team, but their two hit outs against the Springboks will be good preparation heading to match against the All Blacks this weekend. It will be a step up in class and although the MacLean Park doesn’t have the same history as Eden Park does, the All Blacks won’t be taking this match lightly. Argentina’s recent record isn’t one to write home about having only won three matches from their past 26 against top 20 ranked opposition, but on their day they can certainly cause some problems. Hourcade has only made the two changes this week with Leonardo Senatore coming in for the injured Manuel Montero at number eight and Bath winger Horacio Agulla comes in for a stint on the right wing.
Prediction
The All Blacks are a team with a phenomenal record, both home and away and they will be high in confidence as a result of their obliteration of the Wallabies only two weeks ago. They are a team that strives for perfection and unfortunately for the Pumas, the All Blacks will once again flex their muscles this weekend ahead of the big clash next weekend against the Springboks in Wellington. With wet weather predicted, conditions could be difficult and this might halt the All Blacks from hitting top gear.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win comfortably @ $1.02 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Argentina +27.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Australia ($1.64) vs South Africa ($2.28)
Patersons Stadium and the Wallabies will play host to the undefeated Springboks on Saturday evening in an important clash where both teams need to secure at least four competition points in order to keep the pressure on the All Blacks, who are well and truly now favoured to win the competition. Australia head into this clash with a measly two points having achieved a draw against New Zealand in Sydney, however, their disappointing 31 point thrashing in Auckland has highlighted the gap that the All Blacks are creating between themselves and their fellow tier-one nations. Conversely, the Springboks sit atop the competition ladder having had the luxury of playing Argentina both home and away, however, the Springboks were anything but convincing in Pretoria and Salta and have a lot of areas of their game they need to improve on to mix it with the best.
Australia
Australian Coach Ewen McKenzie has wielded the axe by making four changes to his starting team to face the Springboks in Perth this weekend, with further changes on the bench. Despite the Wallabies abysmal performance up front against the All Blacks, there is only one change in the pack with hooker Reds James Hanson replacing the injured Nathan Charles in the front row. It will be a huge test for Hanson coming up against what is usually a relentless Springboks pack and his lineout throwing will be under pressure from the likes of Victor Matfield and company. James Slipper, one of the Wallabies best forwards this season will line up alongside Hanson and Sekope Kepu in the front row. Sam Carter and Rob Simmons continue their partnership in the second row despite being largely ineffective against the All Blacks, as does the back row combination of Scott Fardy, captain Michael Hooper and Wycliff Palu. Hooper was one of Australia’s best players at Eden Park, but it will be interesting to see what performance he can extract out of his teammates after the shellacking they received from New Zealand.
Halfback Nic White has been dropped for the first time this season for Nick Phipps and Kurtley Beale also finds himself on the bench having been relegated for Waratahs teammate Bernard Foley. Many pundits believe that Foley was unlucky not to start against the All Blacks in recent weeks, but both players did make enough impact to warrant starts this weekend. Pat McCabe’s career-ending injury has opened up the door for Tevita Kuridrani to feature in the centres alongside Brumbies teammate Matt Toomua with Rob Horne, Adam Ashley-Cooper and Israel Folau rounding out the back three. Folau has been safe at fullback for the Wallabies so far this competition racking up more running metres than any other player, however, the All Blacks stingy defense seemed to have all the answers for every question he threw at them. As many teams do, McKenzie has opted for a six/two split on the bench given the nature of the battle upfront. Saia Fainga’a returns to the Wallabies setup for the first time in a couple of years and he will partner Pek Cowan and Ben Alexander as front row replacements alongside ex-Wallaby captain James Horwill, current Rebels captain Scott Higginbotham and current Force captain Matt Hodgson. Adding to the physicality that the Springboks play the game at, it is expected to be a wet weekend in Perth, which will most likely dictate the way both teams attacking mindsets are going into the game. As aforementioned, Nic White and Kurtley Beale are in the high numbers this week and will be eager to impress should they receive any game time.
South Africa
The Springboks will be disappointed with their efforts from the first two rounds of this year’s competition, with Argentina coming within seven points on both occasions. In saying that, the sign of a good team is one that still wins even when things aren’t going according to plan and the Springboks never looked flustered in Salta, despite heading into the final stanza of the match down 12 points. Very rarely do they panic and this is due largely to the experience of some of the players like Jean de Villiers, Bismarck du Plessis and Bryan Habana in their squad. The Springboks have been getting decimated upfront by the Pumas, which is a rare sight to see. In saying that, things don’t just get bad overnight and I am sure the Springboks will front up and give the Wallabies pack a real run for their money this weekend. Players are also looking fatigued and Meyer’s decision to rest a few of the ‘worn out’ players this weekend is a bold move.
Since yesteryear, the Springboks have been known for their physicality, but there seems to be an imbalance in the pack with few aggressors in the mould of injured Willem Alberts or an in-form Eben Etzebeth. With that being said, the continued absence of halfback Fourie du Preez leaves a big hole for the Boks in terms of his skills and game management abilities and with Jacques Fourie injured and JP Pietersen in Japan, the Springboks have lost a lot of experience and organisation. Don’t get me wrong, the current team is strong, but it is just missing the power and the glue that a World Cup winning squad requires at this stage and some of the youngsters will need to step up on the Australasian leg of this tournament.
With that being said, Coach Heyneke Meyer has opted to make six changes to his starting 23. In the front row, Bismarck du Plessis has been given a rest (on the bench) and the Cheetahs inspirational captain Adriaan Strauss will start at hooker. Incumbent props Tendai Mtawarira and Jannie du Plessis will join him up front. In the second row, youngster and probably one of the ugliest men on the planet, Lood de Jager has been relegated to the bench for the fit again Victor Matfield. Matfield’s presence at lineout should be a crucial facet of the game and it will be good to see how is body copes with the speed that the Wallabies play the game at. As a result of Matfield’s inclusion, Eben Etzebeth maintains the number four ‘enforcer’ role. Willem Alberts injury has gifted Marcell Coetzee another start at seven and the Englished-based Francois Louw joins him and the Stormers confrontational number eight, Duane Vermuelen. Ruan Pienaar extends his stay in the Boks number nine jersey and will partner Morne Steyn in the halves. The Handre Pollard experiment isn’t over, however, Heyneke Meyer still sees the value in having Steyn in the squad with the Rugby World Cup only a year away. There will also be a new centre pairing with captain Jean de Villiers partnering former IRB Under 20 RWC Player of the Year Jan Serfontein. The back three remains the same and consists of Cornal Hendricks, who is proving to be a great finisher, Bryan Habana, who will be making his 100th appearance for the Springboks and Willie le Roux who will be coming up against the best player in the world in his position this weekend. Meyer has packed the bench with a good blend of youth and experience with former Blitzbokke member Warren Whitely looking set to win his first Springbok cap of the bench.
Prediction
Having a look at recent fixtures between these two proud rugby nations, the Springboks have won the last three matches, including a drought-breaking win at Suncorp Stadium last year (38 – 12), before winning their home fixture 29 – 8. South Africa has continued to improve since then and head into this matchup with the best current win streak of all tier-one nations having won their last nine consecutive matches. On the contrary, the Wallabies will be hurting after their embarrassing performance against the All Blacks and will want to get back in the winner’s circle this weekend. It will be anything but a partisan crowd with so many ex-South Africans now calling Perth their ‘home’ and the Springboks have had an excellent winning record there. Both teams have shared the spoils in Perth over the past few seasons, but the Boks will be disappointed after their ‘weak’ performances against the Argentinians and I think they will extend their streak building up to the big one against the All Blacks at Westpac Stadium next weekend.
Predicted result: South Africa to win narrowly in a physical battle @ $2.28 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: South Africa +3.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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