The 2014 version of The Rugby Championship kicked off last weekend in a very wet Sydney where Australia held New Zealand to a low-scoring draw and later on, South Africa hosted Argentina in monsoonal conditions in the nation’s capital, Pretoria. In all honesty, both matches failed to live up to the expected hype and the notion that rain is a great leveller was well and truly reiterated. With only one try being scored across 160 minutes of action, it was a round that provided us with more questions as opposed to answers, which makes this weekend’s clashes that much more intriguing. Many say Eden Park is the sacred home of rugby union and the Wallabies will need to dig deeper than they ever have if they want to usurp the All Blacks on their hallowed turf on Saturday. The Springboks also travel to Salta in Argentina, where the visitors will be provided with a customary hostile reception with the home side looking for their first ever victory in the tournament.
The ITM Cup (New Zealand) and the Currie Cup (South Africa) have both kicked off respectively, and the NRC got underway on Thursday evening with a best bet of Brisbane City to win cashing. Much like last year, my main focus will be on The Rugby Championship and I will select matches from other tournaments where I see valuable betting options available. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: Team B (Australia) vs NZ – First Half Points Over 8.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: South Africa -11.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Wellington -11.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Note: I will post more plays on twitter
New Zealand ($1.25) vs Australia ($4.10)
The All Blacks will host their trans-Tasman rivals Australia at the fortress of Eden Park in Auckland this weekend, a ground where the New Zealanders have won an astonishing 32 consecutive matches. The All Blacks and the Wallabies played out a 12 – 12 draw last weekend in Sydney in a match that still left many questions unanswered. Many would say that the draw felt like more of a win for the Wallabies and more like a loss for the All Blacks, but rain is often a great leveller and neither of the teams deserved to lose at ANZ Stadium. The All Blacks will be itching to return to winning ways, but the Wallabies can smell blood and are eager to win back some much-needed respect.
New Zealand
Last weekend, the All Blacks bid to become the best tier one team ever in terms of consecutive win streaks faltered in an arm wrestle in Sydney, but it took a very brave effort from the visitors to hold onto the draw. The All Blacks were under pressure for a large part of the match and with Wyatt Crockett and Beauden Barrett both receiving yellow cards and ten minutes on the sidelines, the visitors were forced to defend like trojans. The four top tacklers of the round were all Kiwis with captain Richie McCaw topping the count with 19, followed by Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read all on 17. Although the conditions weren’t conducive to the style of rugby the All Blacks are synonymous for, they still were good enough to get two away competition points, which could prove to be vital at the end of the competition. Additionally, the All Blacks know that a win on Saturday will keep Australia in the Bledisloe Cup wilderness for the 13th consecutive season, but they are going to have to improve this week and be more disciplined or they will be heading the Suncorp Stadium for the decider on October 18.
All Blacks Coach Steve Hansen who boasts an impressive record of 29 wins, one loss and two draws has opted to make three changes to his match day 23 this week. The tight five remains the same having been put through a stern test last week and Wyatt Crockett will consider himself lucky having only lasted 37 minutes in Sydney. Jerome Kaino’s injury (elbow – four to six weeks) sees Chiefs flanker Liam Messam return to blindside flanker to partner captain Richie McCaw and Kieran Read, two players who had a high work rate last weekend. Aaron Smith and Aaron Cruden continue in the halves and will be looking forward to a dry track, but Ma’a Nonu’s injury sees Ryan Crotty selected for his first start at inside centre alongside Conrad Smith who returns having been absent from last weekend’s Test match due to the birth of his newborn son. The back three of Julian Savea, Cory Jane and the live wire Ben Smith remains unchanged, however, they will all be looking to improve on last weekend’s performance, with none of them standing out with much distinction. On the bench, Charlie Faumauina comes into the front row reserves alongside Kevin Mealamu and Ben Franks. Steven Luatua and Sam Cane maintain their places on the pine, with Tawera Kerr-Barlow selected ahead of TJ Perenara and last week’s offender Beauden Barrett will look to make the most of his opportunity off the bench alongside Malakai Fekitoa.
Australia
Before the start of the tournament, many pundits believed that the Wallabies only hope of beating the All Blacks was at ANZ Stadium and put simply, they couldn’t have come any closer. Australia’s positive intent despite the poor conditions bodes well for the future of Australian rugby, in terms of both success and viewership. However, despite having the All Blacks on the ropes, they were unable to land the killer blow and in turn place one hand on the Bledisloe Cup that has eluded them for far too long. The Wallabies pack fronted up well in Sydney, but Eden Park is one of the most hostile environments in world rugby and the All Blacks have proved in the past, if you aren’t firing at 100%, they will punish you.
Australian coach Ewen McKenzie has kept the faith in his team for this weekend’s clash by naming an unchanged line up in a bid to secure that elusive Eden Park win. James Slipper continues to be one of the Wallabies best forwards with a solid performance up front alongside Nathan Charles and Sekope Kepu, however, McKenzie will be looking for Kepu to have more impact around the park. Sam Carter and Rob Simmons had solid outings in the second row and in the wet, their grunt work was exemplary. In the back row, Scott Fardy and Wycliff Palu will need to impose themselves more heavily at the breakdown in Auckland rather than playing a supporting role to captain Michael Hooper, who was his lively self against much bigger opposition. Nic White can also probably count himself a little bit lucky this week to be wearing the number nine jumper after a poor outing last weekend, but his partnership with Beale will once again be a key facet to the outcome of this fixture. In the wet conditions, Beale kicked well but his attacking prowess was somewhat stunted by what would’ve seemed like an abundance of All Black defenders every time he touched the ball. Matt Toomua and Adam Ashley-Cooper were solid without being spectacular and the wing combination of both McCabe and Horne will be put under the spotlight once again this week. Australia’s biggest attacking threat in Israel Folau was somewhat nullified in Sydney despite making 120 metres on attack, so I also expect him to go looking for more work against the All Blacks on Saturday.
Prediction
This match at Eden Park this weekend is setup to be an absolute classic. After last weekend’s agonising draw, both teams will be looking to flex their muscles in front of a capacity crowd in what has been forecast to be good conditions. The All Blacks have made a few changes, whereas the Wallabies will front up unchanged on Saturday. The last time the All Blacks lost a Test match was against England in November 2012, only a few matches after the Wallabies had ended their 17-match win streak with a draw at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The last time the All Blacks lost a Test match at home was against the Springboks in Dunedin in 2009 (29 – 32). Although the former is somewhat of a coincidence, historically the All Blacks have been superior at home for many, many years and like last week, I am not going to bet against them until someone dethrones then.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.55 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Team B (Australia) First Half Points Over 8.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Argentina ($5.00) vs South Africa ($1.18)
A fired up Argentinian side will be excited at the prospect of exacting revenge on South Africa this weekend in Salta after they suffered a narrow 6 – 13 loss in treacherous conditions in Pretoria. The Pumas have received a lot of praise from the rugby world after giving the Springboks a real run for their money, however, one must put the match into context. It was similar conditions to a night in Newcastle that many Wallabies fans will want to forget, where Australia was beaten by Scotland (6 – 9). In saying that, the Springboks will be the more satisfied team heading into this fixture as they will be buoyed by the fact that they have never lost to Argentina, however, a draw and a five-point win from their last two visits to South America suggests that this won’t be a one-sided fixture.
Argentina
Argentina’s pack was simply outstanding in Pretoria with their front row of Marcos Ayerza, captain Agustin Creevy and Ramiro Herrera causing the Springboks front three all sorts of problems. The Pumas tall timber also did exceptionally well in the lineouts, winning all 14 of their throws and they also managed to poach two from their opposition. The back row of Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and Juan Manuel Leguizamon were monumental and if they can continue to produce that form, they are going to be a handful for any opposition during this tournament. On the back of a dominant forward pack, Argentina’s general Nicholas Sanchez had a strong game at fly half and managed two clean line breaks to lead that statistic for round one. However, this weekend we will get a much better insight into the Argentinians style of play and their capabilities given that the players are expected to play in good conditions. Coach Daniel Hourcade has made two changes for their match against the Springboks in Salta on Saturday. Understandably, the forward pack remains the same, however, in the back line, Juan Martin Hernandez, who was a later withdrawal from last week’s match returns at inside centre in place of Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias. The only other amendment to the team sheet sees Montpellier’s outside back Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino replace Horacio Agulla on the right wing. It will be a big game for loosehead prop Marcos Ayerza who will be playing his 50th match for the Pumas this weekend.
South Africa
The Springboks will be disappointed with their efforts last weekend in Pretoria, despite having to contend with what captain Jean de Villiers said were the worst conditions he has ever played in. The Springboks got off to the best start possible in Pretoria with a nifty move down the blindside that saw winger Cornal Hendricks and scrumhalf Ruan Pienaar interchange brilliantly sending the latter over in the opening minutes. However, from there the conditions dominated proceedings and the Springbok forwards were put under extreme pressure throughout the course of the match and highlighted a number of areas for them to work on. The Boks simply didn’t adapt to the conditions well and promising youngster Handre Pollard was guilty of a number of poor kicks. With the Rugby World Cup to be played in the UK next year, I would expect coach Heyneke Meyer to select Morne Steyn who has a more accurate boot, both in terms of place kicks and kicking in general play. Not surprisingly, two of the Springboks best players on the night flanker Francois Louw and Ruan Pienaar, ply their trade in the northern hemisphere, where they are exposed to conditions similar to what they faced in Pretoria.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has made three changes to his starting 15, with an additional four changes made to the bench. Tendai ‘the beast’ Mtawarira has been relegated to the bench for Toulouse prop Gurthro Steenkamp taking his place. The du Plessis brothers, Bismarck and Jannie complete the front row. Eben Etzebeth also makes his way into the team in place of Bakkies Botha and he will partner the 21-year-old lineout caller Lood de Jager in the second row. With the injuries to Willem Alberts, who pulled out just before last weekend’s match started and Victor Matfield who is still suffering from a knee injury, the return of Juan Smith to international rugby is a timely one and one that needs to be commended. Smith last played Test rugby in 2010 before suffering a ‘career-ending’ injury before a last ditch effort to save his Achilles was a success. He was then offered a wildcard from French powerhouses Toulon and has since won both the Heineken Cup and Top 14 titles. In his prime, Juan Smith was the finest blindside flanker in the world and Springbok rugby will be better off with his inclusion this weekend. Juan Smith will join Francois Louw and Duane Vermuelen in the back row. Ruan Pienaar and Handré Pollard combine again in the halves and the rest of the backline including Jean de Villiers, Damian de Allende, Bryan Habana, Cornal Hendricks and Willie le Roux remains the same. On the bench, Adriaan Strauss, Tendai Mtawarira and Frans Malherbe have been chosen as front row replacements with Bakkies Botha and Marcell Coetzee completing the forward reserves. The Bulls duo of Francois Hougaard and Morne Steyn also find themselves on the pine, alongside Sharks speedster Lwazi Mvovo.
Prediction
Argentina has always been a proud rugby nation that centres their play on a dominant scrum and dominating the breakdown, both areas they excelled at last week in Pretoria. The Pumas haven’t had the best record at home as of late with losses to Ireland and Scotland, but playing against the world’s heavyweights, they often raise their game. In saying that, the Springboks will be out to make a statement in Salta this weekend with key clashes against the Wallabies and the All Blacks to come and I expect their forwards to regain control around the park to allow their silky backs to exploit the Pumas and win by more than a score
Predicted result: South Africa to win comfortably @ $1.18 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: South Africa -11.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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