The final round of Super Rugby’s regular season kicks off this week and like many seasons that have gone before us, the final playoff picture won’t be painted until the final whistle is blown in Cape Town. In recent weeks we have been treated to the British & Irish Lions invasion of Australia and although the home fans won’t have slept to well on Saturday evening, new life was breathed into rugby union in this country. The losing pill was probably made easier to swallow with the axing of controversial coach Robbie Deans, but you have to give credit where it is due, and the Lions were simply outstanding in Sydney where they wrapped up the series. The countdown to the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England starts now, but before we get to far ahead of ourselves, we have a full round of fixtures to get through to see who will reign supreme in the world’s toughest provincial rugby competition. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: Highlanders to win @ $2.16 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Reds +2.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3 Brumbies +9.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Crusders to win Super Rugby @ $4.00 – Sportsbet
Crusaders ($1.10) versus Hurricanes ($10.50)
AMI Stadium in Christchurch will once again open up the weekend’s rugby account as the hometown Crusaders welcome a fading Hurricanes outfit. The Crusaders are renowned for their business-end dominance and they didn’t disappoint last week when they outclassed the conference leading Chiefs by a healthy margin at the same venue. The Hurricanes on the other hand fell just short in one of the matches of the season, which saw a total of 93 points scored in Wellington, but the defensive coaches will have nightmares of that fixture for months to come.
The Crusaders have been marvelous over the past two weeks and have really sounded a warning to the rest of the competition. Typically, they are slow starters, but the problem for many other teams is, is that once they start changing gears, they are extremely hard to stop. Much like the Chiefs, they have the ability to play different styles of rugby based on their opposition and conditions, but that is what you would expect from a team that boasts more internationals than English Sport has (see what I did there). Their recent return to form has been heavily influenced by Dan Carter, who has shown glimpses of the form that made him the sport’s most valuable player. Coach Todd Blackadder has made an injury-enforced change to his lineup this week, with Tom Donnelly replacing the burly Luke Romano. The Crusaders are a team that don’t take their opposition lightly and that certainly won’t be the case this weekend, given they fell short by one point against the same opposition in Wellington in round four.
The Hurricanes are a team that has the ability to beat the top sides in the competition on their day, but also can produce some rather ordinary performances as well. They are a team that thrive on momentum and play an open brand of rugby often looking for the bonus point by scoring four tries or more. In doing so, they often leave gaping holes in their defense which was evidenced in Wellington last weekend when the lowly ranked Highlanders fell one point shy of racking up a half century. When Mark Hammett took over the coaching in 2011, he lost key players such as Ma’a Nonu, Piri Weepu and Andrew Hore with the focus being placed on nurturing new talent and in turn, a new team culture. The duo of TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett are developing into a promising combination that have the ability to rattle any defensive structure. In saying that, Barrett sits third on the All Blacks pecking order behind the impeccable Dan Carter and the mercurial Aaron Cruden. It would be a monumental surprise to see the Crusaders lose given their recent form, but as aforementioned, you can never really count the Hurricanes out, and they did manage to beat the Crusaders earlier in the season.
The red and black army are confidently hitting their straps at the right time of the season as they often do, whereas the Hurricanes have looked extremely out of form since the June break up. The Crusaders have a hell of a lot to play for and conversely the Hurricanes would be hoping the season was already over, which only points to one possible result and that is the Crusaders, by a margin that will send shivers down the spines of their upcoming opponents.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.10 – Betfair
Rebels ($1.91) versus Highlanders ($2.16)
The Rebels will be looking to finish their season on a high when they face the Highlanders, who have finally turned a corner and will be hungry for another victory this week in Melbourne. The Rebels have only played one match over the past five weeks and that was against the British & Irish Lions who completely floored them 34 – 0, so there is a chance that they might be a little bit rusty this weekend. The Highlanders on the other hand have had tough matchups against the Crusaders and last week’s entertaining victory over the Hurricanes, so they look to be better positioned from a match conditioning point of view.
The Rebels are a team that have simply not evolved quick enough since their inception and as a result have regularly featured at the foot of the Super Rugby table. With the recent acquisitions of Higginbotham, Beale and O’Connor, things started to look promising in Melbourne, however, they simply haven’t achieved what has been expected of them. For that reason, coach Damien Hill and James O’Connor were given the boot. Wallaby’s assistant coach Tony McGahan takes over the helm and I think this is a really good choice by upper management. Having played under McGahan at schoolboy level, he is a hard-nosed coach that places emphasis on discipline and accountability. That is exactly what is required for the Melbourne franchise and Scott Higginbotham came out during the week saying that although James O’Connor is a great team man, his off-field indiscretions certainly conflict with team culture. Not surprisingly, Kurtley Beale is a notable absentee this week as the club have decided to let him continue his rehabilitation in Sydney and James O’Connor will start on the bench. The club certainly is in disarray, but often when that is the case, the very next week a team produces the goods, so it will be interesting to see how the front up this weekend.
The Highlanders are a team with a lot of promise, with a good mix of youth and experience and it was comforting to seem them finally click against the Hurricanes in Wellington. Their backs are silky smooth and they have the grunt up front that can challenge any opposition on their day, but their defense has been a weak point throughout the duration of the season. This was reiterated when they almost blew a 35 – 8 halftime lead last weekend, but winning becomes a habit and they will be looking to finish this season on a high heading into the ITM cup, a provincial competition in New Zealand. Many pundits expected the Highlanders to challenge for the title this year and the team had the feel of the team that was successful at the change of the millennium. It has been a long wait for their fans to taste glory and unfortunately, that looks likely to be the case for a few more years yet.
This is a tough match to call given the off-field dramas that have engulfed the Melbourne franchise this week and the inconsistency issues that the Highlanders have faced all season. I expect James O’Connor to have a big game when he comes on the field, but I think players like Ben Smith and Tamati Ellison can overpower his influence and for that reason I’ll tip the visitors in a high-scoring, but tight contest.
Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $2.16 – Betfair
Best Bet: Highlanders to win @ $2.16 – Betfair
Blues ($3.30) versus Chiefs ($1.44)
The Blues and the Chiefs kick off a feast of rugby action on Saturday, as we will fitness the final regular season New Zealand derby in Auckland. The Blues have just returned from an African safari they would rather forget, having lost to both the Sharks and Cheetahs and effectively ending their season in the process. The Chiefs, although still on top of the New Zealand conference, suffered a demoralizing defeat at the hands of the Crusaders last week, and will be looking to use this match as a momentum changer heading towards a defense of their Super Rugby title.
The Blues have had a rollercoaster season with successive victories often followed with successive defeats. Their destiny was in their own hands prior to their recent tour of South Africa, but during the week they travelled home from South Africa with their tails between their legs having collected only one competition point from a possible ten. After last week’s defeat, coach John Kirwan stated that his troops have a lot to learn given their Inconsistent season, but many would’ve predicted what has occurred, as it is synonymous of a team that is in a rebuilding phase. Two young guns in Charles Piutau and flanker Steven Luatua recently received their All Black colours and the team has played an exciting brand of rugby all year, so the season has been far from doom and gloom. Unfortunately for the Blues, Luatua will miss this match through injury and Peter Saili will be given until game day to see whether he can take the field of not. Given the impact of back rowers at the breakdown, the Chiefs certainly have the advantage here and might disrupt some of the Blues backs from getting quality ball.
The Chiefs have done well in 2013 and are well placed to make 2014 another successful year for them. With 13 wins and only four losses, they can still top the championship ladder, if they manage to beat the Blues and the Bulls succumb to the Stormers (which is definitely a possibility). Given that a number of their key players are departing in the offseason, although they look to be recruiting well, another stellar season next year might be a little far-fetched. Their front row is gargantuan, Craig Clarke captains and controls the lineout, Liam Messam and Sam Cane are always a threat at the breakdown and their backs have more X factor than all the TV shows combined. The weather might nullify any advantages this week as it is expected to be cold and miserable, but the Chiefs have been there before and know what it takes to win at this point in the season.
The Chiefs have the regular season premiership in their reach, but they will have to wait for the Bulls and Stormers result in the early hour of Sunday morning to know who they are playing next. Motivation will not be an issue for them and the Blues will be suffering jet lag and will be looking for a few weeks away from the game to digest and recover from a grueling season. For that reason, much like the first match of the round, the Chiefs have this one in the bag and I would be extremely surprised if they failed to get the chocolates this week in Auckland.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.44 – Betfair
Waratahs ($1.70) versus Reds ($2.24)
ANZ stadium in Sydney will host the latest installment of Australian rugby union’s greatest and longest provincial rivalry as the Waratahs face the playoff bound Reds. The Waratahs season started slowly and by the time they found their feet, it was too late. But in saying that, their squad is talented, balanced and offensively flamboyant, so they will be looking to treat their fans for the final time this season. The Reds have secured a playoff spot, but whether they play one final home match depends on this result and the aforementioned Crusaders and Hurricanes fixture. Either way, the crowds will flock to the old ‘Stadium Australia’ yet again, but this time around at least some Australians will leave victorious, unless there is a draw of course.
The Waratahs home record this year has been extremely impressive having won six out of seven fixtures. However, those games were all at Allianz Stadium so it will be interesting to see if ANZ Stadium affects them. Before the Waratahs team sheet was read out on Thursday, I had them as clear winners for this matchup. However, injuries to the consistent Adam Ashley-Cooper, test debutant Israel Folau and the gain line specialist and number eight Wycliff Palu, certainly robs their team of impetus going forwards. Their game is generally built around the dominance of their forwards, however, many of these players will be exhausted after a mentally and physically bruising series against the Lions. The real question is, which Waratahs team will turn up? The one that can put fifty points on their opposition or the one that makes many Wallaby fans question why there are so many Waratahs in the national setup. I guess only time will tell.
The Reds have been chugging along this season without lighting the world on fire. Their bogey team is clearly the Western Force, who they lost against at their fortress of Suncorp Stadium and in the return fixture in Perth they could only manage a draw. If they had of won those games, they could very well be playing home finals, but if some other results go their way, they still may yet play one more time in Brisbane (but, it looks unlikely). The Reds haven’t played collectively as a unit for a number of weeks now, but the last time they ran out the pushed a very good Lions outfit until the final whistle. New Wallabies coach Ewen McKenzie has named a strong lineup for this encounter, but they have been hit with two key injuries to captain James Horwill and vice-captain Will Genia. These omissions are massive, given both of their leadership qualities and ability to control matches. They have been replaced by Nicky Frisby and the lanky Ed O’Donohue respectively, but there is certainly a huge leadership void to fill. James Slipper takes over the captaincy and this match holds extra importance for a number of the Reds squad given their coach’s latest appointment.
What a way to finish the Australian conference this season. Sure the conference fixtures don’t always produce mouth-watering rugby, but this match certainly has the potential too. There are attacking threats across the park and with both teams largely contributing to the bulk of the Wallabies squad, there won’t be any love lost. Although this doesn’t have the billing of State of Origin (rugby league), the players will leave it all on the line and I am picking the Reds to build some momentum heading into an important playoff series.
Predicted result: Reds to win @ $2.24 – Betfair
Best Bet: Reds +2.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Force ($3.35) versus Brumbies ($1.26)
NIB hosts the final Australian derby of the season in Perth as the Brumbies make the trek across the barren land of Australia. Both teams faced the traveling Lions in the international test window, with the Force fielding a second choice team and clearly paid for that decision, whereas the Brumbies were the first to tarnish the Lions tour record with a solid win on the back of an exceptional defensive effort.
The Brumbies currently hold onto the best defensive record in this year’s competition and a lot of credit has to go to Jake White for this. A few years ago, the Brumbies started to become easy beats, which was a far cry from a franchise that has been so successful over the course of the tournament’s history. Coach Jake White has named seven Wallabies in the starting fifteen, which on paper looks far too strong for the Force to handle this week. George Smith who was horrifyingly knocked out against the Lions takes his spot on the bench and his impact towards the end of the game with fellow back rower Fotu Auelua will be a challenge for the Perth based franchise. Their backline has been consistent throughout the course of the year and their combinations have developed significantly under the tutelage of Jake White. The only thing that could possibly derail the Brumbies campaign will be if rain intervenes, but even then the Brumbies are showing the signs of a versatile squad that can play anywhere and in any conditions.
2013 was always going to be another challenging year for the Force given their lack of superstars and rather debatable offseason acquisitions. Their season highlights were the two results against former premiers the Reds and the Crusaders, which no one could’ve predicted. Their loss to the tournament newcomers the Kings in round one really set the tone for their season. Like the Highlanders, the Force don’t provide a lot of interesting fodder for writers to spruik, but they have got a number of youngsters coming through the ranks that I expect to play for Australia in the coming years, none more so than prodigy and former Australian under 20 star Kyle Godwin. On the contrary, to make matters worse, stalwart Richard Brown has agreed to a deal in Japan to weaken their generally strong back row. The Force need to have a strong offseason and there are rumours of James O’Connor making a return, but based on performances this season, they will need another two or three high profile players on their books if they are to give the Australian conference a shakeup.
Ever since Jake White and Laurie Fisher took over the reins in Canberra, the Brumbies have been progressing at a serious pace. Do I think that the Force can trouble them in Perth this weekend in the last game at NIB stadium for the season? Absolutely not! The difference in class, talent, call it what you will, will be too great and I think the Brumbies will head back to Canberra next week playing a home playoff fixture against the Cheetahs.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.26 – Betfair
Best Bet: Brumbies +9.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Sharks ($1.06) versus Kings ($14.50)
The penultimate match of the final round of Super Rugby sees the Shark Tank as the venue for a dead rubber matchup between the Durban based side and the tournament newcomers, the Kings. The Sharks were gallant in defeat to the Bulls last weekend, and quite possibly should’ve won if a regulation penalty was slotted in the final moments by rising star Willie le Roux. The Kings too were also impressive as they challenged a Stormers lineup littered with international superstars, before eventually going down by 12 points.
Another year gone, another chapter finished in the book of Natal Sharks rugby. Their season has been up and down like a yo-yo, struck by an injury curse and a backline that can’t mirror the class of their forwards. Coach John Plumtree was given the boot and recently former Sharks and Springbok great John Smit was instilled into the chief executive officer position. The Sharks franchise has a proud history, but upper management obviously thought it was time for a change, even though it didn’t sound like they went about it in the most professional manner. Pat Lambie and Butch James are both unavailable, with the latter serving a suspension for a trademark reckless tackle last weekend. This has been slightly offset with the return of winger JP PIetersen, who been one of the Sharks most consistent performers over the past few seasons.
As I predicted pre-tournament, the Kings will most likely finish as the wooden-spooners in this year’s competition, but by no means is that a reflection of their impressive introduction into the cauldron of Super Rugby in 2013. The Kings have recorded victories over the Force, Rebels, and drew the Brumbies in Canberra, which is no mean feat. Sure they have felt the wrath of the Bulls and Waratahs, but you do expect that considering they only had one player called into the Springbok training squad in Demetri Catrakilis (and not utilized). They have a big few weeks ahead of them given the relegation battle with the Lions and the Sharks will be out to claim a final victory for the season, so mentally the Kings are certainly up against it. Additionally, coach Alan Solomons has made a sweeping 12 changes to the team that faced up against the Stormers last week, with a number of their key players rested. This spells DISASTER! In fact, I think I will stop my preview on them right here. We may see the Kings back here next year, we may not. But, they have been a refreshing addition to the roster this year and I can only wish them luck against the Lions, who have been playing well in South Africa’s provincial competition.
With nothing left to play for, we can all only hope that both teams throw the ball around and go for broke. This isn’t a match that many will stay up for or even watch it on record, but both teams have showed glimpses of brilliance this year. This season will go down as one of the worst in franchise history for the Sharks, but the Kings have learned a lot and will be a whole lot better for it next year, that is if they defeat the Lions in the relegation match ups to commence at the culmination of the tournament. For me the Sharks have too much class and will walk away with this one by a hefty margin.
Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.06 – Betfair
Stormers ($2.04) versus Bulls ($1.74)
The final match of the Super Rugby regular season is sure to live up to the hype as the Stormers host the table-topping Bulls in Cape Town. The Stormers have had a disastrous year on all accounts, with a retched run of injuries and poor-form derailing their season early on. The Bulls on the other hand haven’t lost for 13 rounds and despite having their own bout of injuries to contend with, have surpassed all expectations set both for them and by them this season.
The Stormers had high hopes for the 2013 season, given their top of the log status at the end of the regular season last year, but one final victory against the ‘Blou Bulle’ will salvage some pride and hold them in good stead to defend their Currie Cup title in the months to come. They certainly have some superstars in their lineup, but an injury toll of 16 players is simply too much for any team to handle. Jean de Villiers returns to the lineup this week and regains the captaincy. His combination with Juan de Jong should hold trumps over the Bulls young centre pairing, but it all depends if their forwards can lay the platform to give them space out wide. Players like Etzebeth, Habana and de Villiers will look to put up strong performances with the Rugby Championship just around the corner, but a break is what a number of these players require after a long and arduous season. Stormers fans will be hoping for one final positive from the season and they are certainly in with a shot against the men from the Transvaal.
The Blue Bulls (sometimes pink) have surprised many this year and continue to unearth talent in both the low and high jersey numbers. Their development systems are obviously working and their conveyor belt of churning out large forwards and exciting backs continues to deliver. The Blue Bulls have scored more points than any other team this year and fly half Morne Steyn sits firmly in the Super Rugby total points chair given his accurate goal kicking. Steyn played last year under mental and physical duress given his rigorous schedule over the past few seasons and it clearly showed in his performances. After receiving an elongated off season, he has come back and solidified his position as South Africa’s top fly half, so all credit must go to him. This week, they will be without the services of the IRB JWC 2012 player of the tournament (what a mouthful), as Jan Serfontein has a slight knee injury, but he will be replaced by his centre partner at that world cup, Francois Venter.
Do the Stormers stand a chance this weekend? Of course they do, but the Bulls know that a win will secure them home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs, so they will be highly motivated for this contest. A number of players from both sides recently ran out under the Springboks banner, but friendships get put aside as this match will be as physical as things get at this level. It is hard to pick against the Bulls and I won’t, but I won’t be surprised if the Stormers run them close and create a few anxious moments for Bulls fans and management in the process.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.74 – Betfair
