Round 18 of Super Rugby was a mixed bag that included some enthralling matches coupled with some unentertaining, but rather uncompromising local derbies. It was a profitable weekend that saw three out of four best bets cash, and I am hoping for similar, if not a better result this weekend. The Chiefs and the Hurricanes played some of the most exciting rugby of the year, but that is almost expected now of the Friday afternoon fixture. The British and Irish Lions clash with the Wallabies was a role-reversal of the previous week, but it has setup a monumental matchup this weekend in Sydney to see who will rein supreme. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: Crusaders/Hurricanes/Stormers 13+ @ $2.73 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Lions +2 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Leigh Halfpenny Over 11.5 @ $1.85 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Blues +7.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Crusaders ($1.54) versus Chiefs ($2.96)
The match that will impact the playoff positioning most heavily and kicks off another riveting weekend of rugby takes place in Christchurch this weekend, the home of the mighty red and blacks. The Crusaders were in impeccable form last week, easily disposing of the cellar-dwelling Highlanders and will go into this matchup with a wealth of confidence with their season potentially on the line. The Chiefs were equally impressive dismantling the Hurricanes and cemented their position at the top of the log for yet another week in the process.
The Crusaders were all class last week in a match that included two yellow cards and the competition’s first red card which was handed to Ma’a Nonu of the Highlanders for a reckless tackle on winger Tom Marshall. The Crusaders led at the break by six points, but they were too much for the home side in the second half and secured their four-try bonus point on the stroke of fulltime. Rugby legend Dan Carter was in sublime form finishing the match with a haul of 25 points, thanks to an immaculate kicking display. If fit, Carter’s reputation will always secure him the fly half jersey, but Aaron Cruden of the Chiefs has played exceptionally well this year and their matchup on Friday is a mouthwatering prospect. This week we will see what the Crusaders are made of and coach Todd Blackadder has made five changes, with five All Blacks returning in the forward pack and the same silky backline that ran rings around the Highlanders. The Crusaders are the masters of end of season rugby, but the result this weekend could well decide their season. Except for a midseason slump, the Chiefs have done well to negate the ‘second year syndrome’ that has floored so many teams in the past (the Reds most recently). Coach Dave Rennie and company have integrated structures into the franchise that complement the makeup of the squad and they have a great blend of youth and experience. Last week, the Chiefs returned to the top of the ladder after a bonus point victory over the highly entertaining Hurricanes. In a match that lived up to the Friday afternoon spectacle that we have come to expect from New Zealand teams, the Chiefs countered the Hurricanes well who threw everything at them but the kitchen sink. The forwards set a great platform that allowed their elusive backs to capitalise, but with the stakes raised this weekend, I will be interested to see how they cope against an All Blacks laden team.
The match of the round has all the makings of a Super Rugby classic as both teams have been New Zealand’s strongest weapons in recent years. Both teams make up a large contingent of the All Blacks squad and a moment of brilliance or conversely, a costly brain explosion could well be the difference on the scoreboard. It is hard to bet against the Crusaders, but at the same time I think the Chiefs are certainly ‘overs’ when looking at the current markets. Players like Read and Carter relish these encounters and I expect them to raise their game again to propel a fiery Hamilton side.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.54 – Betfair
Hurricanes ($1.34) versus Highlanders ($3.90)
The Hurricanes welcome the lowly ranked Highlanders to Wellington in the first on many fixtures on Saturday. The Hurricanes hit the showers last week knowing that their season was over and this match will have no bearing on the championship ladder. The Highlanders were dreadful yet again last week, and their ill discipline saw one player yellow carded and Ma’a Nonu. It certainly wasn’t the season farewell their home fans were hoping for and if you listen closely, you can hear the knives sharpening in Dunedin.
The Hurricanes open style of play appeals to all rugby fans and is led by the developing Beauden Barrett who has a knack of scoring tries and setting up many more. Led by the inspirational Conrad Smith, they have are littered with talent with names such as Franks, Vito and Alapati Leiua who has recently returned from a few Samoan outings, always dominant. Julian Savea is one of the form wingers in world rugby and when he is given any space or gifted with a one-on-one opportunity, more often than not he capitalises. They have been held down with injuries throughout the season and will most likely be more of a threat next year, but playing their last game of the season will surely inspire them to produce the goods in the windy city. Like I’ve said before, I’ve run out of things to say about the Highlanders. Sure they boast a team loaded with internationals and their covered stadium of Forsyth Barr is conducive to running rugby, but they simply haven’t delivered this year. Their one shining light has been Ben Smith, a versatile backline player that could possibly feature in a world squad. He is as elusive as they come and one of the most dangerous counter attackers in world rugby. Off-season acquisitions such as Ma’a Nonu, Tony Woodcock and the evergreen Brad Thorne have failed to produce and their disciplinary record is the worst in the competition. Next week they have the Rebels and will probably have more of a chance against them, but stranger things have happened in rugby and if the Highlanders click, they are capable of scoring some enthralling tries.
Although the Highlanders have only recorded two victories this year, they boast a team laden with All Blacks and they NEED to salvage some pride in their next two encounters. In saying that, the Hurricanes know anything but a win here will be a disaster and I expect their key players to deliver a strong victory over their suffering conference neighbours.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.34 – Sportsbet
Australia ($1.75) versus British & Irish Lions ($2.10)
The third and final match of the British & Irish Lions tour of Australia awaits us, as somehow the Wallabies found a way to win last weekend, so we are heading to Sydney for the decider. The most high profile matchup since the Rugby World Cup final in 2011 will no doubt have rugby fans glued to their TV’s to see not only which team has more skill, but also which team has more fight. Last week’s match was full of suspense but it won’t go down as one of the better games in rugby history, in fact I think it would sit closer to the bottom. Both teams looked hesitant given what was at stake, but with one point separating these two teams on aggregate so far, strap yourselves in because yet again, a penalty or drop goal could well be the difference in Sydney.
Australia has shown real heart this series and given the ill fortune of unfortunate injuries throughout the Super Rugby season, I didn’t give them much of a shot of beating a team comprised of four European countries. Players like Stephen Moore, captain James Horwill, Ben Mowen, Will Genia, Adam Ashley-Cooper and newcomer Israel Folau have really improved their stocks and the huge turnout of Wallabies supporters have played their part as well. In saying that, Wycliff Palu has been ordinary and despite some of his thunderous runs and imposing work at the breakdown, he has more or less been a passenger. Moreover, James O’Connor a young talent is simply not Australia’s answer in the number 10 jersey. He simply hasn’t had the space or game management to press his claims for future test matches and in the Rugby Championship I can see him moving out one or two positions. The Waratahs flanker Michael Hooper has done well to fill the void left by the injured David Pocock, but Liam Gill is piling on the pressure with another livewire impact off the bench, including a crucial Justin Harrison-esk lineout steal in the dying moments of the match. This week, controversial coach Robbie Deans has sprung a surprise by recalling the evergreen George Smith to the open side flanker role, who will play his first test since 2009. It is a well-rounded squad and Robbie Deans will be hoping for a victory given that it could very well save his job in the process.
The Lions came within five metres of winning the Tom Richards trophy for the first time since 1997, when Leigh Halfpenny failed with a long-range effort on the stroke of fulltime. It was a scrappy match where neither team really failed to assert themselves, and when they did their ball handling let them down. The match was theirs for the taking, until a late try was scored by Adam Ashley-Cooper and Christian Lealifano nailed a clutch conversion from wide out. Captain Sam Warburton suffered a hamstring injury in the second half and has been ruled out of this week’s encounter, so I imagine watching from the sidelines will be extremely distressing for him. Many pundits thought Brian O’Driscoll would step into this role, having been a tourist on four Lions tours, but coach Warren Gatland has handed the reins over to Welsh lock Alun Wyn Jones with BOD dropping out of the match day 22 all together. In comes Jamie Roberts, perhaps one of the finest twelves in the world who will partner fellow countrymen Jonathan Davies. With Manu Tuilagi coming off the bench, the Lions backline certainly looks a lot more potent and a lot more likely to score some tries. Leigh Halfpenny continued his excellent kicking record and all of the Lions fans around the world will hope that continues that this weekend. But with any rugby fixture, the game is usually won up front. Sean O’Brien has been the form forward all tour for the midweek side and his battle with George Smith will be colossal. Alex Corbisiero also returns from injury to bolster the front row.
When looking at the team sheets, there are a number of key battles across the park this weekend: front row vs. front row, O’Brien vs. Smith, Phillips vs. Genia and pretty much every backline position including the tour highlight makers, George North and Israel Folau. Stadium officials and the ARU have asked for additional seating to be erected at Stadium Australia, which will see the third ground record broken in successive weeks. It is an extremely hard match to predict given the seesaw nature of the series so far and with Sam Warburton on the sidelines, the leadership battle could well be a determining factor in this week’s epic encounter. The match will be refereed by Frenchman Roman Poite and I expect there to be a few more penalties than usual, so I am leaning towards the team with the proven goal kicker and as a result, Sydney will erupt with the molten red of the Lions. Plus, $2.30 is real value.
Predicted result: Lions to win @ $2.30 – Betfair
Best Bet: Lions +2 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet: Leigh Halfpenny Over 11.5 @ $1.85 – Sportsbet
Cheetahs ($1.52) versus Blues ($2.80)
The only other match that involves two teams still competing for a top-six playoff spot takes place on Saturday evening. The Cheetahs will be happy to head back to Bloemfontein after a demoralizing defeat to the Stormers in Cape Town, where they were outclassed in almost every aspect of the game, and in turn their playoff hopes were severely setback. Given that they have the bye next weekend, this will be the last time they play at home in this year’s competition. The Blues on the other hand had to contend with a slow start, but managed to mow the Sharks down and when victory looked likely to be theirs, the Sharks found their second wave to dent the Blues playoff hopes with a try through fullback Riaan Viljoen.
Without a doubt, the Cheetahs play the most exciting brand of all the South African teams in Super Rugby, but last week they were guilty of going into their shells and adopted a defensive mindset. Put simply the Cheetahs choked and they were made to pay, but hopefully for their sakes, they will have learned a valuable lesson from that. All they had to do was win, but now they have the Blues, Sharks and Stormers nipping at their heels. This could go down as the biggest game in Cheetahs history and if they prevail, they look safe given they have the bye next week and a guaranteed four points. The Blues are simply not a team that you can sit back and defend against because they have threats across the park, so I will be interested to see how the Cheetahs claw back this week after the disappointing result. This match will go a long way in telling us how good they actually are.
The Blues nail-biting loss to the Sharks once again dented their playoff hopes, but they are still in with a chance despite having to face the Chiefs next weekend. Both Blues halves Piri Weepu and Chris Noakes have succumbed to injury and have subsequently flown home which leaves somewhat of a void in their playmaking department. They have been replaced by Gibson-Park and Kerr respectively. The clash of the forward packs and the breakdown this weekend will go a long way in determining the outcome of this match and with guys like Kevin Mealamu, Ali Williams, Steven Luatua and Luke Braid in their ranks, they are certainly in with a chance. Rene Ranger will return to the starting fifteen this week and the Cheetahs will have their hands full with Halai and Piutau supporting him with real size and pace out wide.
Both teams have similar styles of play and every match from here on in is a final. The Blues will be better off for their additional week in South Africa, but the Cheetahs home fans will do their best to provide their team with the ‘16th’ man that is often spoken about in Rugby. The Cheetahs are a team that have come on in leaps and bounds, but a hunch tells me that they might have to wait another season or two to be genuine contenders – Blues to win, just.
Predicted result: Blues to win @ $3.10 – Betfair
Best Bet: Blues +7.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Kings ($8.20) versus Stormers ($1.10)
The second leg of a triple-header on Saturday night involves the tournament newcomers, the Kings and a Western Province team that will be full of confidence after their demolition of the Cheetahs at home. The Kings were ordinary in Pretoria last week and the scoreboard reiterates the difference in class of two teams on opposite sides of the Super Rugby spectrum. The Stormers had high hopes in 2013, given their top of the log status at the end of the regular season last year, but another two wins as many matches will salvage some pride and hold them in good stead to defend their Currie Cup in the months to come.
It is clearly evident that the Kings are looking towards their relegation match at the end of the season with the Lions. They have nothing but pride left to play for and this could spell disaster for them over the final two rounds. They will gain some confidence from playing their last game at home, where in actual fact they have been pretty solid this year, barring huge losses to the Bulls and the Waratahs. In my opinion, their forwards have performed above par this year, whereas they have been left wanting in the backs on a number of occasions. Sure they have some outright pace with guys like Sampson and Petersen in their portfolio, but they have lacked combinations, but that will only develop over time. They started the season so strongly on defense, but have since lost the sting and the Stormers will be licking their lips at the prospect of their second rout in succession.
It is a case of too little, too late for the Stormers this year. They have found their form in recent weeks, but know that everything now will be done in vain. With twelve players still on the sidelines, their depth has been tested, but they haven’t done as badly as they probably could have. The back row injury curse continued last week when Siya Kolisi unknowingly played through a damaged ankle ligaments and he is now on the sidelines for the rest of the season. With names like Burger and Vermuelen still on the casualty list, hooker Deon Fourie has stepped into the role well and they will be bolstered by the return of hard man Rynhardt Elstadt this week. Their backline includes a number of lively internationals and if things go according to plan, they might not need to even break a sweat this weekend.
Super Rugby is the most arduous and taxing provincial rugby competition on the planet and this is evidenced by the Kings fade in recent rounds. They have acquired a countless number of new fans this year, but the depth and class of the Stormers will prevail this weekend by a handsome margin.
Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.10 – Betfair
Bulls ($1.41) versus Sharks ($2.52)
The final match of the round sees the 2007 finalists, the Bulls and the Sharks clash at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. The home team is riding an imperious wave of momentum and their destruction of the Kings last week was expectable. The Sharks also managed a win last week, but they left it late against a Blues side that simply didn’t turn up until after halftime.
As aforementioned, the Bulls stampede continued last week in what seemed like an effortless performance racing in six tries in the process. Although they had to contend with injuries to captain Pierre Spies and Arno Botha from recent internationals, Jacques Potgieter and his namesake Dewald stepped up well. They will have their work cut out for them this week though with the likes of Alberts, Coetzee, Daniel and Deysel opposing them. The hundred plus cap veteran Wynand Olivier has departed to France which opens the door for Jan Serfontein to partner JJ Engelbrecht in a midfield that will represent the Springboks for many years to come. In fact, I will make a bold prediction and say that they will eventually overtake the unforgettable combination of Jean de Villiers and Jacque Fourie. The Bulls lead the season battle with the Sharks and it will be a huge confidence boost heading into the Currie Cup if they can knock them over again this week. In a rather dour affair in Durban in round 15, the Bulls relied heavily on kicking ace More Steyn to knock over six penalties. The Sharks scored the only try of the night courtesy of halfback Charl Mcleod and I expect this week’s score line to resemble something similar to the Bulls 18 – 16 victory back then. The Sharks have been one of the unluckiest teams this year when it comes to injuries, but that is simply the nature of Super Rugby. Patrick Lambie has failed to ignite his backline in the fly half jersey this year and a number of arm chair experts are calling for him to adopt the sweeping role instead, so he certainly has a point to prove against the incumbent Springbok number ten. As the season goes on and some of their casualties return, they are beginning to look better and better. Their forwards are capable of matching any opposition on their day, but there are some serious question marks over their backlines inability to cut defenses to shreds. Springbok fans will be ecstatic at the return of Bismarck du Plessis, who will start a match for the first time in almost a year. The Sharks are playing for survival this week and their match day 22 will be playing to keep that flicker of hope alive, but it must be said that Loftus Versfeld is one of the most daunting places to visit, let alone win with a bonus point.
This will be a typical bruising and tight South African encounter. The rivalry these two teams have built up throughout the course of Currie Cup and Super Rugby campaigns is almost unmatchable in South Africa with both teams predominantly contributing to the core of Springbok rugby. The Bulls have more on the line and the form guide suggests the Bulls will win and I have to agree, but it won’t be the blowout that the home fans will be hoping for.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.41 – Betfair
