Super Rugby Week 18 / Lions / Sevens Preview

Best Bet 1: Crusaders -6.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Chiefs/Crusaders to win @ $1.89 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Blues +12.5/Bulls -9.5 (PYOL) @ $1.93 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: New Zealand to win IRB Sevens World Cup @ $2.50 – Sportsbet

Chiefs ($1.35) versus Hurricanes ($3.20) 

Round 18 kicks off this weekend in Hamilton as the New Zealand conference leaders the Chiefs host the Hurricanes who are still in with a mathematical chance of making the playoffs for the first time in a number of years. The Hurricanes will have to bank a full house of points in their next three fixtures, as well as hope that some other results go their way, so it isn’t necessarily out of the question. The Chiefs on the other hand are the reigning Super Rugby champions and despite a bout of midseason rustiness, they are very well placed to top the league ladder at the culmination of the regular season.

The Chiefs will be physically and mentally revitalised after a few weeks off and are ready to make a tilt towards the playoffs. Coach Dave Rennie has named a strong line-up with size and power up front, coupled with the naming of their quickest backline of the season. Tim Nanai-Williams makes his return from injury this week and he will be a welcome addition and will no doubt have the home crowd on the edge of their seats when in possession of the ball. This game will also be the official farewell match for captain Craig Clarke, Lelia Masaga, Richard Kahui, Brendon Leonard and Toby Smith. These players have been not only great ambassadors for their province, but for Super Rugby in general and they will sorely be missed when they begin the next chapter in their rugby careers.

The Hurricanes are winless since their impressive victory over the high-flying Cheetahs in Bloemfontein in round 13. Since then, they have had two byes and lost to this week’s opponents the Chiefs and the table topping Brumbies. Coach Mark Hammett has the luxury of calling upon seven All Blacks alongside a number of other players coming through the ranks and heading for higher honours. Their attacking threats pose a huge threat for any defence and they will be gunning for the bonus point this week, but the Chiefs won’t take them lightly given what is at stake.

With both teams still in contention to make the playoffs, this match will be of high quality and high intensity. A number of players have thrived for the All Blacks in recent weeks and will relish the opportunity to dominate this New Zealand derby. Along with the Bulls, the Chiefs are the form team in the tournament and they will use this match to kick-start their push towards a second successive trophy. If the Hurricanes play to their potential they are certainly a chance, but I expect the class and experience of the Chiefs to prevail in a high-scoring matchup.

Predicted result:  Chiefs to win @ $1.35 – Sportsbet

Highlanders ($3.00) versus Crusaders ($1.40) 

A banquet of rugby kicks off on Saturday with another New Zealand derby as the tournament cellar-dwellers the Highlanders host the perennial super powers the Crusaders. The Highlanders have only accumulated two victories this season and the fact that they only acquired two bonus points doesn’t make for pretty reading. Looking at the Crusaders, they presently round-out the top six and with the wealth of experience they possess sure to play a part at the business end of the season, two wins in their next three encounters would ensure yet another post-season birth.

The Highlanders have performed way below internal and external expectations in 2013, often combining moments of brilliance with unacceptable errors and poor decision making at this level. More often than not teams are made to pay for their errors in this arena and despite strong offseason acquisitions, things just haven’t gone according to plan. Take Ma’a Nonu for example. He is one of those players that thrives on the international stage and sometimes struggles on the domestic scene. This was reiterated in recent matches when he displayed deft touches off the boot and impressive defensive qualities for the renowned All Blacks. He needs to stand up and be counted in the last few rounds and he will be joined by winger Ben Smith, who was quite possibly the player of the Steinlager series. His elusive running and outright pace makes him a handful for any team from any position on the field. But this game is going to be won up front and that is an area where the Highlanders have struggled this year. However, if they can gain parity at the set piece, it will give their dynamic backs a chance to settle the season ledger.

The red and blacks have their destiny in their own hands and they will no doubt be looking for three wins to solidify their position in the top six from their remaining matches. Looking back at the first fixture of the season in Christchurch, the Crusaders easily defeated the Highlanders at home in Round 10 (24 – 10) after leading 16 – 0 at the break. Coach Todd Blackadder has named a number of his heavy artillery on the bench including Wyatt Crockett, Luke Romano Kieran Read and Robbie Fruean. Furthermore, if Cory Flynn receives game time off the bench, he will become the most capped Crusader of all-time having represented his union 130 times. This presents the Highlanders with an opportunity to strike early, before the big guns are introduced into the fray, but the Crusaders are always a chance whatever the deficit is.

The Highlanders can only adopt the role of giant killers from here on in, whereas the Crusaders have it all to play for. With a bruising few weeks of international rugby behind us, the Crusaders will look to assert their dominance early on and utilise their international experience to suffocate the Highlanders. To the dismay of the home fans, I believe they’ll leave Forsyth Barr with yet another disappointing loss, but the home fans in the ‘zoo’ will make it a lively atmosphere.

Predicted result:  Crusaders to win @ $1.40 – Sportsbet

Best Bet: Crusaders -6.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet

Australia ($2.35) versus British & Irish Lions ($1.60)

The second instalment of this historically rich spectacle takes place at Etihad stadium in Melbourne on Saturday evening. As mentioned in the prologue, the atmosphere and buzz around Brisbane over the course of last weekend was nothing short of spectacular. To be fair, the Wallabies faired a lot better than I thought they would and ultimately should’ve prevailed. If it wasn’t for some poor goal kicking and a number of injuries, particularly to the backline, things may have been different, but that is what makes test match rugby so difficult.

Australia played exceptionally well last weekend despite having to contend with the early injury to Christian Lealifano and the sickening blow that Berrick Barnes took from the shoulder of Israel Folau. Lealifano’s replacement and one of Robbie Dean’s favourite sons, Patrick McCabe also left the field in the second half and I must admit it was the first time that I have seen three players leave the field on a stretcher. The character of the Wallabies was huge, but James O’Connor had a night to forget in the fly half jersey. He failed to orchestrate his troops and was guilty of running sideways in attack, which heaped pressure on his teammates. Israel Folau was contentiously given the man of the match award in his international debut, which certainly speaks volumes of the man. Having conquered Rugby League, attempted AFL and now shining on the international union stage, his signature is going to be crucial for the Wallabies if they want to once again raise the William Webb Ellis trophy in England in 2015. This week, Joe Tomane gets his second test start replacing Digby Ioane on the wing, who is subsequently out for the rest of the series. Berrick Barnes will also remain on the sidelines and his place will be taken by the Wallabies ‘bad-boy’ Kurtley Beale. The player I am most interested in watching is inside centre Christian Lealifano, who surprisingly has been cleared of concussion after being stretchered off 50 seconds into the first test match. He is a crafty playmaker and will offer more than what Pat McCabe did in Brisbane.

The British & Irish Lions got out of jail in Brisbane, but they did display moments of brilliance including one of the all time great Lions tries scored by winger George North. Sam Warburton captained his side well and both he and hooker Tom Youngs were the pick of their forwards. The Lions backline failed to fire consistently and the omission of Jamie Roberts was felt more than they probably would’ve thought. Alex Cuthbert scored another marvellous try on tour and Leigh Halfpenny’s faultless boot was the difference in the match. During the week the Lions ‘B’ team easily disposed of the Melbourne Rebels, with an extremely strong defensive effort. The Rebels were held scoreless, but I doubt many of us jumped on the $27 odds of that happening before the match. Coach Warren Gatland has named a starting fifteen with five changes from the first test, with flanker Tom Croft, half back Mike Phillips and fellow Welsh winger Alex Cuthbert all dropped for subpar performances. They have been replaced by Dan Lydiate, Ben Youngs and the fit-again Tommy Bowe respectively. The remaining two changes are injury enforced, with lineout caller Geoff Parling coming in for the injured Paul O’Connell and Mako Vunipola replacing prop Alex Corbisiero. One of the form forwards of the tour Sean O’Brien also makes his way onto the bench and I expect him to have a huge influence at the breakdown when he is introduced.

The roof of Etihad Stadium will be closed, which will negate the effects of the elements in Melbourne, but after the Wallabies performance last weekend, they can’t be counted out. I do think the Lions will turn things up a notch this week and the Wallabies will find this match a lot more difficult. With Leigh Halfpenny’s impeccable goal kicking form, I see the Lions winning their first test series since 1997 and raising the Tom Richards trophy in front of a huge sea of red, but not by a huge margin.

Predicted result:  Lions to win @ $1.60 – Sportsbet

Best Bet: Reds +2 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet

Sharks ($1.40) versus Blues ($3.00) 

Kings Park in Durban will host the only cross-divisional matchup of the round as the Sharks welcome the Blues who are still within striking distance of the top six. The Sharks have had a disappointing season lamented with injuries and inconsistency and as a result, only have the Currie Cup to look forward to this season. The Blues started 2013 with a bang, which was a surprise to many given their inexperienced squad. However, a mid season slump has made their quest for supremacy much more difficult, but they are a team you can’t count out.

2013 will go down as one of the most disappointing Sharks seasons on record with coach John Plumtree recently receiving the boot. John Smit, the illustrious ex-Springbok captain turned CEO has a huge task on his hands to turn their fortunes around, but you get the feeling he is the right man for the job. The Sharks have had an excellent defensive record this year conceding the fewest number of points, but their attacking game has been far from entertaining. Their season has been plagued with injuries, particularly in the centres with the first four candidates currently on sitting on the sidelines. Their forward pack remains one of the best in the competition, but the backs will have to dig a little deeper if they are to finish the season on a high.

As aforementioned, the Blues have been one of the surprise packets of the year and have performed a few years ahead of schedule. Coach John Kirwan, renowned for developing unions and franchises has done an exemplary job, but the depth of New Zealand rugby has once again played its part. The Blues had the luxury of playing a reserve French outfit over the break, however, they were outclassed at the set piece and their inefficiencies at the breakdown were exposed. The Sharks will have taken note of this, but the Blues will be bolstered by some of the All Blacks that didn’t feature in that particular fixture. Rising star and the most recent All Black inductee Charles Piutau will take advantage of a weakened home backline and I expect them to play the game at a fast pace to tire the burly Durban forwards out.

The Blues are generally a solid travelling team, but the Shark tank isn’t the easiest of venues to conquer. This is a clash of opposite styles and one has to give. It’s quite amazing in sport when teams extradite their coach, they raise their game in the following fixture and even though I think the Sharks will triumph, it isn’t my most confident prediction of the round.

Predicted result:  Sharks to win @ $1.40 – Sportsbet

Bulls ($1.07) versus Kings ($8.00) 

The Bulls return to the cauldron of Loftus Versfeld on Saturday evening as they face tournament newcomers, the Southern Kings. In what looks like the most predictable match of the weekend, the Bulls are one of the form teams in the competition having not lost since the end of March. The Kings on the other hand, started the season strongly, but their last win came in round 13 when they beat the Highlanders in what was essentially their ‘grand final’.

The Bulls have blown their expectations out of the water this year and with the changing of the guard well and truly behind them, the new breed of Bulls are more than capable of mixing it with the best. Seven wins on the trot could quite possibly become ten by the time the regular season concludes and they know that any losses from here on in would effect their home playoff aspirations. I have said it before, but only one team has managed to win the Super Rugby trophy when positioned outside of the top two, so for the Bulls, a win here is a must. In disheartening news for the Bulls, back rowers Arno Botha and Pierre Spies have been ruled out for the entire year following knee and bicep injuries respectively. Although Pierre Spies hasn’t been at the top of his game for a while, his leadership qualities will be missed and the combination he had with Arno Botha will be hard to replace.

The Kings also have their own injuries to worry about with captain Luke Watson ruled out for the rest of the year with an ankle injury. He has been cursed with injuries this year, but also looks a shadow of the player he was before he went on his European sojourn. It must be said that the Kings back row has been the most impressive component of their game and they might have the edge given the Bulls injury crisis. Captain Andries Strauss is solid in the centres and Demetri Catraklis will look kick for territory whenever possible, and when they are within striking distance will most likely slot the three points. However in saying that, I don’t think penalties will do it for them this weekend.  The Kings have been one of the most impressive first-year teams in this competition and have picked up a number of additional fans throughout the year, but with not a whole lot to play for they are certainly up against it in Pretoria.

Despite the injuries the Bulls have been confronted with, they are a proud union and have the depth that is required to take care of the Kings. South African derbies are intense, brutal affairs and after examining the defensive structures and collision statistics of the aforementioned teams, the Bulls will have the edge and should win quite comfortably in front of their home fans.

Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.07 – Sportsbet

Stormers ($1.53) versus Cheetahs ($2.50) 

Newlands Stadium in Cape Town, one of the most picturesque stadiums in world rugby will host the final match of the round as the more than impressive Cheetahs head to the coastal region. The Stormers have had a season to forget, however, they strung together two consecutive victories over the Reds and the Kings before the break. The Cheetahs have had a stellar season and given some key injuries at the Bulls franchise, this could be their year to reign supreme in South Africa, and potentially the southern hemisphere.

The Stormers have had a disappointing season, especially after topping the regular season table last year. Although they have had to contend with a sizeable injury toll, their accuracy has left them wanting on many occasions this season. Bryan Habana is back to his best after a number of scintillating tries in the recent internationals and has been a shining light for the Stormers this year. He recently notched up his 50th try and only has a handful of players ahead of him on the all time leading international try scorer. With attacking players such as Gio Aplon and Juan de Jong in the backline, many would’ve expected them to cross the chalk more often than they have, but this has been a low point for the franchise over the past two seasons. Their grunt up front is intimidating and Eben Etzebeth continues to make a name for himself, despite still being 21 years of age. The Stormers tight five will look to target the Cheetahs this week to try and lay a platform for their backs to prosper.

The Cheetahs boast quality throughout their line up with a mix of seasoned veterans (Daniller, Brussow and Strauss) and a number of rising stars (Le Roux, Rhule, Labushcagne and Oosthuizen). The balance within their squad has certainly been a strong point and they are no longer looked at as ‘easy beats’ of the competition. Led by their inspirational skipper Adriaan Strauss, they play to their strengths and play an exciting brand of rugby, with the attitude of attacking from any position on turnover ball, much like their New Zealand counterparts. Whether the Cheetahs can win the close battles consistently remains to be seen, but based on their performances to date, they are more than a chance at Newlands.

The Stormers are a proud union in South Africa and regularly feature up the top of the table, both in international and domestic competitions. However, the Cheetahs are the team with more to play for and their anxiety levels will be rising at the thought of a potential maiden playoff birth. This season has been catastrophic for the Stormers, but I won’t write them off just yet, and whichever way this match goes, I can’t see either team winning by more than a score.

Predicted result:  Stormers to win @ $1.53 – Sportsbet

Rugby World Cup Sevens – Moscow, Russia 

Pool A – Australia, France, Spain Tunisia 

Pool B – South Africa, Scotland, Russia, Japan 

Pool C – Samoa, Kenya, Philippines, Zimbabwe 

Pool D – New Zealand, USA, Canada, Georgia 

Pool E – Fiji, Wales, Tonga, Uruguay 

Pool F – England, Argentina, Portugal, Hong Kong 

Similarly to the 15-man format, the Sevens Rugby World Cup takes place every four years and surprisingly the reigning champions are Wales, who beat Argentina in Dubai in 2009. Fiji are the only team to win the tournament on two occasions, with England and New Zealand the only other teams to taste glory. The IRB Sevens World Cup adopts an unconventional six-pool format with each team playing one match on Friday, two matches on Saturday and potentially three matches on Sunday, if they make the finals.

When looking at form, New Zealand are the reigning HSBC Sevens champions having won the 7’s circuit this year. They only managed to win two tournaments, both the first (Australia) and the last (England), but their consistency is what delivered them the goods and sets them apart from the rest. This year South Africa or the Blitzbokke as they are known, won three tournaments, the perennial super powers Fiji won two and England were victorious in New Zealand.

Due to the timing of the tournament, a number of teams have bolstered their line-ups with international and provincial stars. This makes the tournament that much more unpredictable, but for me I give three teams a chance at this World Cup: New Zealand ($2.50), South Africa ($4.50) and Fiji ($6.50). On their day, England ($9.00), Samoa ($11.00) and Australia ($23.00) could cause an upset and those odds for the men in gold are rather tasty given the inclusions of playmaker Bernard Foley and the silky Luke Morahan, fresh off an exquisite try against the British & Irish Lions.

There is a reason why Sevens is now an Olympic sport and that is because it is a great spectacle and a number of countries attempt to qualify for the global event. As a result of its recent inclusion into the Olympic program, teams like Russia, China and the United States have made huge investments into the sport, so I wouldn’t be surprised in the coming years to see a few more upsets. Because the game is played at such pace and there is so much more space across the field (with only seven players a side), there is a huge emphasis on fitness and being able to beat a man one-on-one. This is what the New Zealanders, Fijians and South Africans are best at. The safest bet would be to choose the Kiwis to win, and under the guidance of potentially the most successful rugby coach of all time with 11 World Series wins, I expect them to win in Moscow.

Predicted result:  New Zealand to win @ $2.50 – Sportsbet

Value bet:  Fiji to win @ $6.50 – Sportsbet

Author

Glenn Paton has followed rugby union for 15 years and has expert knowledge on the game freely committing to over 500 viewing hours a year. Having played with and against some current Super Rugby players and International superstars, he understands the game, the players and the laws inside out. Having been born in South Africa, spent time in New Zealand and currently living in Australia, Glenn lives and breathes rugby. With so many different tournaments happening around the world simultaneously and the addition of Rugby Sevens to the Olympic program, there are always plenty of healthy betting options available. An obsession, a passion, call it what you will, Glenn enjoys sharing his insight, opinions and predictions with anyone who wants to listen.

Specialities: Super Rugby, 6 Nations, Rugby Championship, International Tests, Currie Cup, ITM Cup, Rugby Sevens

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
Gamble Responsibly!