RUGBY

Super Rugby Round 16 (Part 2) – 2017

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Best Bet 1: Brumbies -5.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 2: Stormers -33.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz

REDS ($2.80) VS BRUMBIES ($1.44)

The penultimate round of Super Rugby’s regular season kicks off on Friday night with a match between the Reds and the Brumbies at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The Reds have had a disappointing and are well and truly out of contention, whereas, the Brumbies have wrapped up a playoff spot by winning the Australian conference already. The Brumbies are on a five-game winning streak over the Reds, including a 43-10 hammering in Canberra earlier this season.

Reds: WLLLLLLLWBLLWBLL
Brumbies: LLWWLBWLLLBLWWW

Prediction:

Nick Stiles has named his team to face the Brumbies with hooker Stephen Moore selected as captain and interestingly, Rob Simmons has been chosen to wear the six jersey in his final match for the Reds. Scott Higginbotham’s injury has opened up the door for youngster Adam Korczyk at number eight. In the backline, Quade Cooper will be looking to find some form ahead of The Rugby Championship at flyhalf and one of the hottest properties in Australian rugby at the moment, Karmichael Hunt, has been moved to fullback after representing his country in the 12 jumper. With the Australian conference wrapped up, Stephen Larkham has opted to keep his foot on the pedal by naming what could be considered as his strongest team. With just one match remaining before the playoffs get underway, it’s important that the Brumbies rid themselves of any rustiness this week with much tougher matches to come. 
It’s been more than two years since the Reds have beaten another Australian team at home, so I won’t be opposing the visitors this weekend in front of what should be a mediocre crowd.

Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.40 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: Brumbies -5.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet

FORCE ($1.35) VS REBELS ($3.20)

The Force will host the Rebels at nib Stadium on Perth on Friday night in a match that will be very heated given that one of these teams is getting booted from the competition shortly. The Force are currently sitting 13th on the log with four wins, whereas, the Rebels are 17th having only managed one victory this entire season. The Rebels have beaten the Force on four of the last five occasions and the Melbourne-based outfit has won five of the six matches played in Perth.

Force: LWLBLLWBLLLWLWL
Rebels: LLBLLLBWDLLLLLL

Prediction:

The Force started their season off strongly at home winning their first two matches, but have lost the last four since. To be fair though, only two of those matches were blowouts with the Force only falling to the more fancied Chiefs and the Lions by nine points each. The Rebels have failed to win any of their away fixtures this season, although they did manage a draw against a 14-man Sharks outfit in Durban in round nine. 

Looking at the teams named by Force coach Dave Wessels, Wallabies enforcer Adam Coleman has been selected at lock and as captain. He is surrounded by a lot of youngsters in the pack and Tatafu Polota-Nau needs to up his game at hooker ahead of The Rugby Championship. In the backline, Michael Ruru and the South African-born Peter Grant will orchestrate proceedings with Chance Peni returning from injury on the wing. The Force also welcome back Dane Haylett-Petty from international duties and he is always a class act at this level. Departing coach Tony McGahan has made eight changes to his squad this week. The front row is settled and the back row of Lopeti Timani, Colby Fainga’a and Amanaki Mafi is a dangerous one. I haven’t been impressed with Nic Stirzaker or Jackson Garden-Bachop this season in the halves, but I’m interested to see how Reece Hodge and Marika Koroibete lift their game after a few weeks in Wallabies camp.

This is a match that I am going to stay away from as I don’t have a lot of faith in either of these teams. The Force have been the more consistent of the two this season, but they do have a losing record against the Rebels. This is a statement game for both teams, but I just feel the Force as an organisation and as a playing group have more unity and that should get them over the line in what will be an emotional fixture.

Predicted result: Force to win @ $1.35 – Sportsbet

WARATAHS ($1.21) VS JAGUARES ($4.45)

The Force will host the Rebels at nib Stadium on Perth on Friday night in a match that will be very heated given that one of these teams is getting booted from the competition shortly. The Force are currently sitting 13th on the log with four wins, whereas, the Rebels are 17th having only managed one victory this entire season. The Rebels have beaten the Force on four of the last five occasions and the Melbourne-based outfit has won five of the six matches played in Perth.

Waratahs: WLLLLWLLBLWLBWLL
Jaguares: WLWWWBLLLLWLBLBL

Prediction:

The Waratahs will play their last fixture at Allianz Stadium this season on Saturday night when they take on the Jaguares. This will be the Waratahs first game after the June Test match window, whereas, the Jaguares suffered another defeat at the hands of the Kings in Buenos Aires last Saturday. Both teams have had very inconsistent seasons sitting in 12th and 10th respectively and for the talent that they both possess in their rosters, it is rather unforgivable. This will be the first time that the Waratahs have played the Jaguares in Super Rugby.

The ‘Tahs defence has been woeful this season, conceding more points than any other season in their history (442). They have also been poor at home only winning two of their six matches against the Force and the Rebels. The Jaguares have been notoriously bad travellers and only won one match on the road this season, which was their first match of the season against the Kings. Rather than look at the head-to-head or the handicap for this match, with the weather set to be perfect for running rugby, this match has overs written all over it.

Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.21 – Sportsbet

BULLS ($1.25) VS KINGS ($4.00)

The first of two matches from South Africa will see the Bulls host the Kings at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria on Saturday night. Both teams had their biggest wins of the season last weekend with the Bulls securing their first away win of the season with a convincing 30-17 win over the Sharks and the Kings came from behind to beat the Jaguares 31-30 in a thriller in Buenos Aires. The Bulls and the Kings have clashed on three occasions with the Bulls winning by 13+ on all three occasions (2013 (x2), 2016).

Bulls: LLBWLLLWWBLLLLW
Kings: LWLLLBLLWWBWLLW

Prediction:

The Bulls finally showed what they were capable of last weekend, but their season will still be tarnished with inconsistency, foul play and poor results. On the other hand, the Kings have been one of the few positive stories coming out of Super Rugby this season. The Kings have won as many matches this year than they have in their previous two seasons combined. As it stands, they are ahead of the Waratahs, Bulls and Reds, all teams who have tasted Super Rugby glory in the past. The Bulls are going to look to bludgeon the visitors up front to nullify the threats of flyhalf Lionel Cronje (110 points) and winger Makazole Mampimpi. In saying that, containing flanker Chris Kloete and number eight Andisa Ntsila has proven to be a difficult task for seasoned internationals throughout the year. The Kings have had to do a lot of travel so far this season and the trip back from Buenos Aires isn’t an easy one so I am going to give a confident Bulls outfit my pick by double-digits as they look to rebuild the fortress that is Loftus.

Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.25 – Sportsbet

STORMERS ($1.01) VS SUNWOLVES ($21.00)

The final match of the round will see the Stormers welcome the Sunwolves to the picturesque Newlands Stadium in Cape Town on Saturday night. The Stormers stole victory from the jaws of defeat last weekend with a last minute try to Sikhumbuzo Notshe being enough to defeat the Cheetahs, 40-34 in Bloemfontein. On the other hand, the Sunwolves experienced their worst ever loss in a gutless display that saw them embarrassed 7-94 against the Lions in Johannesburg. The Sunwolves will be looking to avenge their round five 31-44 loss to the Stormers in Singapore earlier this season.

Stormers: WWWBWWWLLLLBWLBW
Sunwolves: LLLLLBWLLLLBLLL

Prediction:

The Stormers have already qualified for the playoffs, but their recent form suggests they are anything but title contenders. This weekend, they will look to impose themselves through the likes of Bongi Mbonambi and Frans Malherbe at scrum time and Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit in the line outs. Flyhalf Damien Willemse had an electrifying debut last week and will be looking to impose himself on a unstructured defence that the Sunwolves currently have. This is another match suited to winger Cheslin Kolbe and Seabelo Senatla, with their fast feet and raw pace likely to see them dot down for at least a couple of tries between them.
Since entering the competition at the beginning of 2016, the Sunwolves have played 28 matches, won two, drawn one and have scored an average of 19 points, but they have conceded a shade under 44. To miss 53 tackles against the Lions is simply inexcusable and the onus really needs to be on the union to ensure that the best players are playing for the Sunwolves and not the company-based teams in the local competition.
There is only going to be one winner in this match and even though there is a chance of showers in Cape Town, the Stormers pack far too many weapons for a Sunwolves outfit that looks ready for a holiday. 

Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.01 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 2: Stormers -33.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz

Author

Glenn

Glenn has followed rugby union for 19 years and has expert knowledge on the game freely committing to over 500 viewing hours a year. Having played with and against some current Super Rugby players and International superstars, he understands the game, the players and the laws inside out. Having been born in South Africa, spent time in New Zealand and currently living in Australia, Glenn lives and breathes rugby. With so many different tournaments happening around the world simultaneously and the addition of Rugby Sevens to the Olympic program, there are always plenty of healthy betting options available. An obsession, a passion, call it what you will, Glenn enjoys sharing his insight, opinions and predictions with anyone who wants to listen.

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