After months of waiting, Super Rugby is back with the 21st edition of the tournament. It has been seven months since we were treated to Super Rugby action and we don’t have to wait much longer with the first round of matches kicking off next weekend (Friday, February 26th). As The Profits resident rugby union writer, I will provide you with my thoughts, analysis and betting predictions every week for the duration of the competition. Over the next six months, some of the biggest, fastest, most skilful and exciting rugby players on the planet will compete for glory in what is arguably the toughest and most competitive provincial rugby competition in the world.
Before diving into an analysis of each of the teams fighting it out for southern hemisphere supremacy, it is important to note that there is a new draw, new trophy, new teams and a new era for Super Rugby. The competition has expanded to 18 teams with the Jaguars from Argentina, the Sunwolves from Japan and the Southern Kings re-entering the fray. Both the New Zealand conference and the Australian conference remain unchanged with five teams each, however, the South African conference has been split into two groups, Africa 1 (four teams) and Africa 2 (four teams). All teams will play 15 regular season matches with one of the South African pools battling the New Zealand franchises and the other South African group playing the Australian teams. The winners of each pool will automatically host a quarterfinal. The other four spots will be filled by four wildcards who will be the next three highest-placed teams from the Australasian group and the next highest-placed team in the South African group.
I really have my doubts about the new format and I find it hard to believe that there wasn’t a better solution available. Obviously politics and sponsorships play their part, but South Africa can’t afford (financially and from a talent-pool) to afford to have another team (Kings), and the Sunwolves have had their issues in the lead up to this tournament both attracting talent and having a solid preseason (they only have had two weeks). There are a number of new rules that will be implemented to quicken up the games and increase the ball in play time, but I will break those down in future articles throughout the season.
It isn’t all bad news with the additional teams contributing to nine Super Rugby matches per weekend. Although this makes my job a little bit harder, it will also give us all more opportunities to beat the bookies. 2016 is the first season of the new four-year cycle between Rugby World Cups, so teams will be experimenting and youngsters will be given an opportunity to make a name for themselves. All conferences will be intense with some historical and fierce battles just around the corner, but the teams that have the most depth and fewest injuries generally prevail. Before last season, statistics stated that no team had ever won the Super Rugby title since 1999, finishing outside of the top two at the culmination of the regular season. That was of course until the Highlanders won last year.
Let’s start off by having a look at various futures markets and I will provide an in-depth analysis of each team. I look forward to your company throughout the season and make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat!
Conference Predictions:
New Zealand: Highlanders, Hurricanes, Chiefs, Crusaders, Blues
Australia: Brumbies, Waratahs, Rebels, Reds, Force
South Africa 1: Stormers, Bulls, Cheetahs, Sunwolves (Japan)
South Africa 2: Sharks, Jaguars (Argentina), Lions, Kings
*Teams I expect to make the play-offs are in bold
Futures Betting:
Grand Final Winner – Brumbies @ $8.00 – Sportsbet
To Finish Bottom: Kings @ $3.25 – Luxbet
Winning Nationality – Australia @ $3.00 – Luxbet
Value Bets:
Top Points Scorer – Nicolas Sanchez @ $8.00 – Sportsbet
NEW ZEALAND CONFERENCE
Otago Highlanders (1st)
Team Base: Dunedin, New Zealand
Home Stadium: Forsyth Barr Stadium
Coach: Jamie Joseph
Captains: Shane Christie, (Flanker), Ben Smith (Wing/Fullback)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 2nd/Champions
Key Players Gained: Luke Whitelock (Flanker), Liam Squire (Flanker), Rob Thompson (Winger)
Key Players Lost: Ma’afu Fia (Prop), John Hardie (Flanker), Nasi Manu (Number Eight)
Superstars: Aaron Smith (Halfback), Malakai Fekitoa (Centre), Waisake Naholo (Wing), Ben Smith (Outside Back)
Rising Stars: Liam Squire (Back Row)
Preview
Last year’s Champions had an outstanding season and proved that you don’t have to have a team stacked with superstars to lift the trophy at season’s end. The Highlanders finished the New Zealand Conference in second place behind the more-fancied Hurricanes, but they would’ve finished in first place had they not rested their key All Blacks in two of their losses. Either way, they played some fantastic rugby under pressure in the knockout stages and their success was underpinned by coach Jamie Joseph, an unheralded front row, industrious back five, two All Black halves, Malakai Fekitoa and a back three that had fans salivating more often than not. They were relatively lucky on the injury front, but when required, the players that did fill in clearly understood the Highlanders philosophy. Additionally, defence wins championships and without the ball, the Dunedin-based franchise knew their individual roles and showed great application throughout the season.
Prediction:
I gave the Highlanders no hope of winning last year and I couldn’t have been more wrong. Low player turnover and some great acquisitions have the Highlanders sitting pretty ahead of the new season, and although I believe they will make the playoffs and potentially top their pool (injuries permitting), they might run out of steam in the do-or-die matches.
Wellington Hurricanes (2nd)
Team Base: Wellington, New Zealand
Home Stadium: Westpac Stadium
Coach: Chris Boyd
Captains: Dane Coles (Hooker)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 1st/Runner-up
Key Players Gained: Loni Uhila (Prop), Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Halfback), Pita Ahki (Centre), Ngani Laumape (Centre)
Key Players Lost: Ben Franks (Prop), Jeremy Thrush (Lock), Ardie Savea (Flanker), Chris Smylie (Halfback), Rey Lee-Lo (Centre), Ma’a Nonu (Centre), Conrad Smith (Centre), Sam McNicol (Fullback)
Superstars: Dane Coles (Hooker), Beauden Barrett (Flyhalf), Julian Savea (Wing), Nehe Milner-Skudder (Outside Back)
Rising Stars: Ardie Savea (Flanker), Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Halfback)
Preview
The Hurricanes experienced their best season to date having finished the regular season as Minor Premiers before falling to the Highlanders at the final hurdle in Wellington. Coach Chris Boyd created a strong culture within the camp that was evident on the field when the Hurricanes played some exceptional attacking rugby from round one. Their attacking nature was underpinned by a stable and grafting forward pack with a number of unheralded players making a name for themselves and going onto achieving higher honours. In their final seasons for the franchise, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith were in scintillating form for the majority of the competition, with Beauden Barrett and Nehe Milner-Skudder’s X-factor proving too much for the majority of their opposition.
Prediction:
Loosing experienced players like Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith will make the Hurricanes task of bettering last season that much harder. They will definitely win more games than they lose given their world class talent, but last year was their real chance. With one of the best backlines in the business it is hard to deny them a playoff spot though.
Waikato Chiefs (3rd)
Team Base: Hamilton, New Zealand
Home Stadium: Waikato Stadium
Coach: Dave Rennie
Captains: Sam Cane (Flanker), Aaron Cruden (Flyhalf)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 3rd/Qualifying Finalist
Key Players Gained: Nepo Laulala (Prop), Atunaisi Moli (Prop), Dominic Bird (Lock), Mitchell Karpik (Flanker), Stephen Donald (Flyhalf), Glen Fisiiahi (Outside Back), Chase Tiatia (Winger), Sam McNicol (Fullback)
Key Players Lost: Jamie Mackintosh (Prop), Ben Tameifuna (Prop), Quentin Macdonald (Hooker), Michael Fitzgerald (Lock/Flanker), Matt Symons (Lock), Ross Filipo (Lock), Liam Messam (Flanker), Sonny Bill Williams (Centre), Liam Squire (Number Eight), Marty McKenzie (Flyhalf), Hosea Gear (Wing), Bryce Heem (Wing), Tom Marshall (Outside Back), Tim Nanai-Williams (Outside Back)
Superstars: Brodie Retallick (Lock), Sam Cane (Flanker), Aaron Cruden (Flyhalf),
Rising Stars: Mitchell Karpik (Flanker – injured), Damien McKenzie (Flyhalf), Shaun Stevenson (Outside Back)
Preview
The Chiefs didn’t have the most fluent of seasons in 2015, despite making the Qualifying Final where they lost to the eventual Champions, the Highlanders. Having won two of the previous three Super Rugby titles, it is understandable that expectations were high in the Waikato region and they would’ve been disappointed to miss out. Coach Dave Rennie assembled a team that was big and abrasive upfront, with a backline containing a number of playmakers that made good decisions in high pressure moments. Their biggest strength was the amount of experience that they could field in the starting team and off the bench week-in and week-out, however, a couple of key injuries both early on and late in the season really hampered their chances of progressing to the final four.
Prediction:
The Chiefs have made five of the past seven Super Rugby Finals series, with two tournament wins included in that stint. However, I’m not really sure what to make of them this year. Like most of their opponents, the Chiefs have lost a lot of players in the off-season and some of their prized recruits will start the season on the sidelines or in the New Zealand Sevens program. There is still a lot of balance amongst the squad and their backline flair will be great to watch. A playoff spot isn’t out of the question, but they’ll need the likes of injury-prone players such as Retallick, Cane, Cruden and Ngatai to stay on the park. I expect playmaker Damien McKenzie to also raise his game this year and show why so many Kiwis have huge wraps on him.
Canterbury Crusaders (4th)
Team Base: Christchurch, New Zealand
Home Stadium: AMI Stadium
Coach: Todd Blackadder
Captain: Kieran Read (Number 8)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 4th/7th
Key Players Gained: Michael Alaalatoa (Prop), Tim Boys (Flanker), Marty McKenzie (Flyhalf), Ben Volavola (Flyhalf/Fullback), Sean Wainui (Centre), Mitchell Hunt (Flyhalf)
Key Players Lost: Nepo Laulala (Prop), Dominic Bird (Lock), Richie McCaw (Flanker), Luke Whitelock (Flanker), Billy Guyton (Halfback), Willie Heinz (Halfback), Dan Carter (Flyhalf), Tom Taylor (Centre), Rob Thompson (Centre), Colin Slade (Utility Back)
Superstars: Sam Whitelock (Lock), Kieran Read (Number 8), Nemani Nadolo (Centre/Wing)
Rising Stars: Codie Taylor (Hooker)
Preview
2015 was yet another disappointing year for the Crusaders as they failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Distractions and injuries played their role in a poor season with the futures of stalwarts Dan Carter and Richie McCaw uncertain throughout last year. Their All-Blacks-laden pack and strength at the breakdown was one of their key strengths last season, however, only winger Nemani Nadolo managed to consistently cause other teams problems from the back division.
Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder has one more season left with the Christchurch-based outfit and it makes sense given that he has only managed to achieve two Final appearances against the Reds (2011) and the Waratahs (2014) from seven season. Given the number of departures in the off season, one would think it would be a tall order for the Crusaders to achieve the legendary status that they once possessed in their golden years.
Prediction:
Last year, I was sold on the Crusaders winning their 8th Super Rugby total, but they failed to make the playoffs. There has been a huge shift of personnel in Christchurch in the offseason with a number of the club’s greatest heroes, either moving abroad or retiring. The Crusaders will always have a strong pack, but they will need more than just Nemani Nadolo to fire in the back line this season if they want to return to the final eight. Fijian flyhalf Ben Volavola looks likely to be put in charge of orchestrating the team at flyhalf and although I don’t rate him personally, they might just have enough to scrape into the playoff picture.
Auckland Blues (5th)
Team Base: Auckland, New Zealand
Home Stadium: Eden Park
Coach: Tana Umaga
Captain: Jerome Kaino (Flanker/Number 8)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 5th/14th
Key Players Gained: Quentin Macdonald (Hooker), Hoani Matenga (Lock/Back Row), Billy Guyton (Halfback), Rieko Ioane (Wing), Rene Ranger (Centre), Matt Duffie (Wing)
Key Players Lost: Angus Ta’avao (Prop), Tony Woodcock (Prop), Keven Mealamu (Hooker), Culum Retallick (Lock), Hayden Triggs (Lock), Luke Braid (Flanker), Brendan O’Connor (Flanker), Jimmy Cowan (Halfback), Jamison Gibson-Park (Halfback), Simon Hickey (Flyhalf), Pia Ahki (Centre), Francis Saili (Munster), Frank Halai (Wing), Charles Piutau (Fullback)
Superstars: Jerome Kaino (Flanker), Rene Ranger (Utility Back)
Rising Stars: Patrick Tuipulotu (Lock), Akira Ioane (Back Row)
Preview
For the fourth season in a row, the Blues failed to crack the top ten in Super Rugby, only managing three victories from their 16 outings. Unsurprisingly, coach John Kirwan was shown the door and has been replaced by All Blacks legend Tana Umaga, who has had a coaching stint with NPC-side Counties Manakau over the past two seasons. In 2015, the Blues were forced to play five of their first seven games on the road, all of which they lost and they failed to make up that lost ground in the back-half of the season. Their poor record and sizeable injury toll allowed them to blood some of their youngsters and this will hold them in better stead heading into this season. The on-field and off-field shakeup was long overdue, but it would be fair to say that Blues’ fans shouldn’t be expecting an immediate bounce back during Umaga’s first year in charge.
Looking at the playing squad, the Blues will rely heavily on their pack that possesses a number of All Blacks including Patrick Tuipulotu, Steven Luatua and future All Black Akira Ioane. New Zealand teams have never had an issue with developing powerful and fast backs, but finding a way for them to fit into the system and playing collectively as a unit has always been the challenge. The return of Rene Ranger will be like a breath of fresh air for the Blues and keep an eye on Sevens winger Rieko Ioane. Ever since 2012, the Blues have been in development and unfortunately for them, they haven’t graduated from that rating.
Prediction:
Auckland rugby has lost it’s mojo over the last decade and Tana Umaga has been instilled to revive it. There is a lot of X-factor in the squad and some big-game players, but they have been robbed of a lot of their experience and are probably at least two years away from really being a real threat in this competition.
AUSTRALIAN CONFERENCE
ACT Brumbies (1st)
Team Base: Canberra, Australia
Home Stadium: Canberra Stadium
Coach: Stephen Larkham
Captain: Stephen Moore (Hooker)/Christian Leali’ifano (Inside Back)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 2nd/Semi-Finalist
Key Players Gained: Albert Anae (Front Row), Nick Jooste (Flyhalf/Fullback), Andrew Smith (Centre), Tomas Cubelli (Halfback), Andrew Aidan Toua (Outside Back)
Key Players Lost: JP Smith (Prop), Siliva Siliva (Hooker), Fotu Auelua (Number Eight), Nic White (Halfback), Jesse Mogg (Fullback)
Superstars: Stephen Moore (Hooker), David Pocock (Flanker), Matt Toomua (Flyhalf/Inside Centre), Tevita Kuridrani (Centre)
Rising Stars: Joe Powell (Half Back), Blake Enever (Lock)
Preview
Three consecutive finals appearances is a good sign for the Brumbies moving forward, but they would’ve been disappointed bowing out in the semi-finals last year against the Hurricanes in Wellington. A number of their losses throughout the season were by minimal amounts, but they did possess the best defensive record in the competition. Captain Stephen Moore, David Pocock and Matt Toomua were sensational throughout the tournament, but there is talk that this year might be the last chance for all three players to bring the silverware back to Canberra.
Now in his third season in charge, former Wallabies pivot Stephen Larkham has an experienced core that will be tough to break down over the coming months. The front row is strong, the locks are towering and their back row is their biggest strength. The signing of nippy Argentinian scrumhalf Tomas Cubelli to replace Nic White is a good one and I expect him to catch a number of defences off guard early on in the tournament around the base of the ruck. The backline has a wealth of talent, power and raw speed and I expect players like Christian Leali’ifano, Matt Toomua and Tevita Kuridrani to dominate from 10 – 13. Joe Tomane also showed glimpses of what he is capable of towards the end of last season with both the Brumbies and the Wallabies so he could feature on the leading try-scorers list at the end of the regular season.
Prediction:
The men from Canberra have a tough start to the season as they come up against the Hurricanes, Waratahs, Stormers and Chiefs all within the first six rounds. The Brumbies have an impressive squad with a lot of depth and I expect them to make the playoffs again this year. If their key personnel, namely Stephen Moore and David Pocock, can get through the season, the Brumbies could really challenge for their first title since 2004. I see them as real title-contenders.
NSW Waratahs (2nd)
Team Base: Sydney, Australia
Home Stadium: Allianz Stadium
Coach: Darryl Gibson
Captain: Michael Hooper (Flanker)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 1st/Semi-Finalist
Key Players Gained: Angus Ta’avao (Prop), Zac Guilford (Wing), Reece Robinson (Wing)
Key Players Lost: Michael Alaalatoa (Prop), Sekope Kepu (Prop), Mitchell Chapman (Lock), Kane Douglas (Lock), Tala Gray (Flanker), Pat McCutcheon (Flanker), Jacques Potgieter (Back Row), Brendan McKibbin (Halfback), Ben Volavola (Flyhalf), Adam Ashley-Cooper (Utility Back), Peter Betham (Wing), Taqele Naiyaravoro (Wing), Jono Lance (Utility Back)
Superstars: Tatafu Polota-Nau (Hooker), Michael Hooper (Flanker), Bernard Foley (Flyhalf), Israel Folau (Fullback)
Rising Stars: Jack Dempsey (Back Row)
Preview
The Waratahs headed into last season as reigning Premiers and they didn’t disappoint throughout the regular season finishing in second place with 11 wins from 16 matches. In the end, the were dethroned when they lost the semi-final to the eventual winners, the Highlanders in Sydney. Their two losses to the Force were a low point in the season, but for the most part, there was enough to suggest that the Waratahs would be in the mix ahead of the expanded competition.
The Tahs are now coach by former assistant coach Darryl Gibson and he has inherited a formidable squad from Michael Cheika. The front row has been bolstered by the signing of Blues prop Angus Ta’avao, who has been seen sporting an horrendous blonde hairstyle in the preseason fixtures. The rest of the pack is full of familiar names including Benn ‘piggy’ Robinson, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Will Skelton, Dave Dennis and captain Michael Hooper. Nick Phipps and kicking-sensation Bernard Foley will continue their partnership in the halves with Kurtley Beale and Rob Horne likely to pair up in the centres. Two new recruits, Zac Guilford (former All Black) and Reece Robinson (former Canberra Raiders outside back) will be excited about the prospect of lining up alongside Israel Folau and I expect them both to bag a number of tries this season.
Prediction:
The Waratahs franchise is in a good position to challenge for their second Super Rugby trophy in three years. Key fixtures in Round 2 and Round 8 against the Brumbies could determine their overall position within the Australian Conference. Either way, they should advance to the playoffs and if they do so with a relatively healthy squad, the have the personnel to deliver the goods back to Sydney.
Melbourne Rebels (3rd)
Team Base: Melbourne, Australia
Home Stadium: AAMI Park
Coach: Tony McGahan
Captain: Not released at time of writing
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 3rd/10th
Key Players Gained: Jamie Hagan (Prop), James Hanson (Hooker), Siliva Siliva (Hooker), Culum Retallick (Lock), Adam Thomson (Back Row)
Key Players Lost: Paul Alo-Emile (Prop), Cadeyrn Neville (Lock), Scott Higginbotham (Number Eight), Radike Samo (Number Eight), Luke Burgess (Halfback), Telusa Veainu (Wing), Bryce Hegarty (Utility Back)
Superstars: Sean McMahon (Flanker),
Rising Stars: Reece Hodge (Utility Back)
Preview
Two seasons with coach Tony McGahan at the helm have yielded solid results for Australia’s youngest franchise, finishing in 10th place with a seven wins and nine loss record. Despite lacking any international superstars, they are consistent on both attack and in defence and place a lot of importance on competing at the breakdown. Spearheaded by young tearaway Sean McMahon, there are a number of players who now how a few seasons of Super Rugby under their belts. The offseason signings of former All Blacks flanker Adam Thomson, hooker James Hanson and the England-born prop Jamie Hagan have strengthened the forward pack and depth in key positions. You would also expect backline players like Nic Stirzaker, Jack Debreczeni and Sefa Naivalu to continue to get better, as well as the home grown talent of centre Sione Tuipulotu.
Prediction:
The Rebels are a team that are on the improve and I expect the Melbournians to better last year’s record, but still fail to make the playoffs. They don’t have the firepower to challenge the top teams, but they are defensively sound and love scrappy, tight matches. Last season’s wins over the Crusaders, Chiefs and Brumbies were impressive in their own right, but they’ll need to place more emphasis on beating the other Australian franchises if they want to be considered as playoff hopefuls this season.
Queensland Reds (4th)
Team Base: Brisbane, Australia
Home Stadium: Suncorp Stadium
Coach: Richard Graham
Captain: James Slipper (Prop), Rob Simmons – Interim (Lock)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 4th/13th
Key Players Gained: Kane Douglas (Lock), Cadeyrn Neville (Lock), Eto Nabuli (Wing), Ayumu Goromaru (Fullback)
Key Players Lost: James Hanson (Hooker), James Horwill (Lock), Marco Kotze (Lock), David McDuling (Lock), Beau Robinson (Flanker), Adam Thomson (Flanker), Will Genia (Halfback), Quade Cooper (Flyhalf), Ben Tapuai (Centre), James O’Connor (Utility Back), Lachlan Turner (Wing)
Superstars: James Slipper (Prop), Liam Gill (Flanker), Samu Kerevi (Centre)
Rising Stars: Lolo Fakaosilea (Back Row), Michael Gunn (Flanker)
Preview
Another season under Richard Graham and another poor result for the Queensland Reds, this time finishing in 13th position after only managing four wins from their 16 matches. Victories over the Force and the Cheetahs don’t hold a lot of weight, but they were up against it with a huge injury toll throughout the season. However, their shining light was definitely their scrum, with forwards coach Nick Stiles assembling a pack that would trouble most teams. I expect the Reds scrum and breakdown prowess to only improve with the likes of James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Rob Simmons and their most recent signing Kane Douglas all imposing players with big engines. There are also a number of youngsters coming through the ranks like hooker Andrew Ready, Lolo Fakaosilea, Michael Gunn and the Tonga Thor, Taniela Tupou all due to see minutes this season. One player that leads by example is Reds captain Liam Gill. If Gill wasn’t born in Australia, he would easily have 50-Test caps to his name by now. He is a workhorse and shows exceptional skill at the breakdown, both when in defence and on attack. There is chat that he will be ruled out of the early rounds of the competition with a shoulder injury that he picked up in the Reds final pre-season match against the Brumbies.
The backline has been robbed of a lot of experience and their two biggest sparks, with the likes of Will Genia and Quade Cooper now playing abroad. After a strong NRC-campaign, halves Nic Frisby and Jake McIntyre will be entrusted with marshalling the troops, but they will be working with a promising centre pairing of Henry Taefu/Anthony Fainga’a and Samu Kerevi, a player who will be in the Wallabies setup in the next 18 months. Former Dragons winger Eto Nabuli is a powerful addition to the outside channels alongside Chris Feauai-Sautia, with Karmichael Hunt and Japanese-import Ayumu Goromaru battling it out for the fullback jersey. I do have my suspicions about Goromaru and I don’t see him having the impact that his boss’s are expecting.
Prediction:
It has been a slow fall from grace for the Reds since their Championship-winning feats of 2011. Their roster has been flushed out, but coach Richard Graham remains after a couple of ordinary seasons on the trot. Injuries have wreaked havoc throughout the squad in recent times, but there are number of youngsters coming through the ranks that could make a name for themselves this season. They might cause the odd upset over some higher-ranked opponents, but for the most part I can’t see the Reds in the top half of the overall standings come the culmination of the regular season.
Western Force (5th)
Team Base: Perth, Australia
Home Stadium: NIB Stadium
Coach: Michael Foley
Captain: Matt Hodgson (Flanker)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 5th/15th
Key Players Gained: Peter Grant (Flyhalf), Ben Tapuai (Centre), Jono Lance (Utility Back), Semisi Masirewa (Wing)
Key Players Lost: Wilhelm Steenkamp (Lock), Sam Wykes (Lock), Sias Ebersohn (Flyhalf), Zack Holmes (Flyhalf), Patrick Dellit (Wing), Nick Cummins (Wing), Akihito Yamada (Wing)
Superstars: Ben McCalman (Flanker/Number 8)
Rising Stars: Kyle Godwin (Flyhalf), Jono Lance (Utility Back)
Preview
It was more of the same for the Western Force in 2015, finishing as holders of the wooden spoon for the second time in the franchise’s short history. Three wins from 16 matches isn’t acceptable at any level, but it is important to note that two of those victories were against the reigning titleholders, the Waratahs. Players like captain Matt Hodgson, Steve Mafi, Ben McCalman and Dane Haylett-Petty were consistently strong throughout the campaign, but they didn’t get much support from the rest of the squad. The Force’s roster has taken a hit in the off season losing some big boys in the engine room and Zach Holmes and Sias Ebersohn at flyhalf. These two have been offset by the recruitment of former Stormers pivot Peter Grant, seven-cap Wallaby Ben Tapuai, the versatile Jono Lance, and the Fijian-born winger Semisi Masirewa.
Prediction:
Despite their frequent lows of 2015, Western Force fans are some of the best in the competition. Unfortunately for the sea of blue that frequent nib Stadium, it looks like it will be more of the same this season. The Force have failed to recruit any real talent since the days of David Pocock, Matt Giteau and Drew Mitchell and it’s going to hurt them and test their depth this season. The Force have been traditionally poor on the road and I expect the Perth-base franchise to finish last in the Australian Conference and in the lower quarter of the overall standings.
SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE – AFRICA 1
Western Province Stormers (1st)
Team Base: Cape Town, South Africa
Home Stadium: Newlands Stadium
Coach: Robbie Fleck
Captain: Not released at time of writing
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 1st/Qualifying-Finalist
Key Players Gained: JC Janse van Rensburg (Prop), JP Smith (Prop), Pieter Steph du Toit (Lock), Jano Vermaak (Halfback), Cornal Hendricks (Wing)
Key Players Lost: Steven Kitshoff (Prop), Manuel Carizza (Lock), Michael Rhodes (Flanker), Duane Vermuelen (Number Eight), Demetri Catrakilis (Flyhalf), Jean de Villiers (Centre), Patrick Howard (Centre)
Superstars: Pieter-Steph du Toit (Lock), Eben Etzebeth (Lock), Schalk Burger (Flanker)
Rising Stars: Oli Kebble (Prop), Seabelo Senatla (Wing) Cheslin Kolbe (Wing)
Preview
Despite winning the South African Conference for the third time in 5 years, the Stormers really didn’t deserve to be in the playoff picture having finished in seventh place overall in 2015. The conference system clearly worked in their favour, however, their inability to take their opportunities in the knock-out rounds reiterated the Stormers lack of a killer punch. Their scrum was the strongest in the competition, however, their lineout, defence and general kicking failed to function at a high enough level.
There is no doubting that the Stormers have a highly-proficient pack and some exciting backs on their team sheet. My biggest concern is the lack of a quality playmaker at flyhalf. The departure of Demetri Catrakilis has put a lot a lot of pressure on youngsters like Robert du Preez and Brandon Thomson to perform at a level they haven’t played at. Kurt Coleman is an option for Fleck, however, I am not sold on him and it might be time to blood the youngsters. To compound issues, players like Juan de Jongh, Seabelo Senatla and Cheslin Kolbe look likely to be selected for various Sevens tournaments throughout the season ahead of this year’s Olympics.
Prediction:
I can see the Stormers claiming outright honours in the Africa 1 Conference and progressing to the playoffs as a result. In saying that, it looks likely that they are going to have a disrupted season, which might halt momentum during crucial parts of the season. Coach Robbie Fleck was a great attacking threat for the Springboks, so I am hopeful that they use their forwards to lay a platform for future Springboks Senatla and Kolbe to exploit tired defences. They have failed to win the tournament from their 19 attempts and a lot of things would have to go their way to claim this year’s title – once again a step or two too far I feel.
Blue Bulls (2nd)
Team Base: Pretoria, South Africa
Home Stadium: Loftus Versfeld
Coach: Nollis Marais
Captain: Adriaan Strauss (Hooker)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 3rd/9th
Key Players Gained: Nick de Jager (Flanker)
Key Players Lost: Victor Matfield (Lock), Flip van der Merwe (Lock), Jacques du Plessis (Lock/Flanker), Wiaan Liebenberg (Flanker), Pierre Spies (Number Eight), Francois Hougaard (Halfback/Wing), Jacques-Louis Potgieter (Flyhalf), William Small-Smith (Centre), Akona Ndungane (Wing), Jurgen Visser (Fullback)
Superstars: Adriaan Strauss (Hooker), Handre Pollard (Flyhalf), Jesse Kriel (Centre)
Rising Stars: Arno Botha (Flanker), Warrick Galant (Fullback)
Preview
Finishing the tournament nestled mid-table, 2015 was another poor year for the Bulls, especially given that the men from Pretoria have won the title on three previous occasions. Frans Ludeke vacated his post as head coach at the culmination of last season and that was probably the right move. The Bulls are simply too one-dimensional and have failed to evolve with the modern style of play. In saying that, it is important to note that year-on-year the Bulls face a mass exodus of their developed talent. With another crop of stars now furthering their careers away from the nation’s capital, Nollis Marais has an opportunity to steer the Bulls in a new direction. One thing he will have to focus on is the Bulls poor travelling record. They have failed to pick up a win from eight overseas matches over the past two seasons and given the fact that Loftus isn’t the fortress it once was; it was time for a change.
The pack will feature a number of faces who have solidified their places in the Bulls line-up over the past few seasons. The Bulls possess and all-Springbok front-row, some promising locks and an industrious back row. Half back Rudy Paige had a solid 2015 season and he was rewarded with a Springbok cap. Bulls fans will be saddened by the news that the darling of Loftus, Handre Pollard is expected to miss the entire season. It will be interesting to see how much ball Jan Serfontein, JJ Engelbrecht, Jesse Kriel and Bjorn Basson will get with a new man in charge.
Prediction:
The Bulls have a relatively easy start to 2016 playing five teams in the first 10 rounds who I believe will be in the bottom half of the draw. They are notorious for their poor overseas record and things won’t get any easier this year with tough away matches against the Brumbies and the Waratahs over consecutive weekends mid-season. The Bulls have the personnel to make the play-offs, but it will be interesting to see how far away from their 10-man rugby approach coach Marais is willing to go – this could well be the determining factor.
Free State Cheetahs (3rd)
Team Base: Bloemfontein, South Africa
Home Stadium: Free State Stadium
Coach: Franco Smith
Captain: Francois Venter (Centre)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 5th/12th
Players Gained: Sian Ebersohn (Flyhalf), Fred Zeilinga (Flyhalf), William Small-Smith (Centre)
Players Lost: Coenie Oosthuizen (Prop), Steven Sykes (Lock), Heinrich Brussow (Flanker), Jean Cook (Flanker), Sarel Pretorius (Halfback), Joe Pietersen (Outside Back), Elgar Watts (Flyhalf), Johann Sadie (Centre), Cornal Hendricks (Wing), Willie le Roux (Fullback)
Superstars: Lood de Jager (Lock)
Rising Stars: Francois Venter (Centre)
Preview
After the highs of 2013, the Cheetahs once again failed to make any real impression on the competition last season. Finishing in 12th position, coach Naka Drotske didn’t see out the tournament and the Bloemfontein-based franchise had to deal with hampering injuries to key players like Lood de Jager, Heinrich Brussow and Willie le Roux. The Cheetahs often have enough attacking weapons in their arsenal, however, their defence has been the main cause for concern for a number of years and is something that coach Franco Smith will have to sort out.
Prediction:
The Cheetahs will open the season with two tough clashes against the Jaguars and their conference-rivals, the Stormers. This will give us an indication of whether or not the Bloemfontein-based franchise has what it takes to to be threat in this competition. Despite the fact that they play an entertaining brand of rugby, defence wins championships and until I see otherwise, I’d suggest putting your money on high-scoring matches that involve the Cheetahs. Towards the end of the competition, I see the Cheetahs fighting it out with the Sunwolves for last place in this conference.
Japan Sunwolves (4th)
Team Base: Tokyo, Japan
Home Stadium: Chichibunomiya Rugby Stadium
Coach: Mark Hammett
Captain: Not released at time of writing
Superstars: Shota Horie (Hooker)
Preview
The Sunwolves are one of the new kids on the block and will look to ride off the back of the success of the Japanese national team at the Rugby World Cup in 2015. From an organisational point of view, it is a real concern how slow things have progressed since they were made aware that they would feature in this year’s tournament. It took a long time for the coach to be named and the squad to be selected. As a result, the cohesion simply won’t be there. They have struggled to lure any big names to the union with Samoan International Tusi Pisi the most notable inclusion. Their pack has also been bolstered by the signing of 37-year old lock, Hitoshi Ono and Ed Quirk who found himself without a club after having four shoulder reconstructions when apart of the Queensland Reds.
Prediction:
Given that they have had the shortest preparation of any Super Rugby franchise and the fact that they have a lot of travel ahead of them, the Sunwolves will be in for a tough initiation this season. The Top League in Japan has improved in recent years, but Super Rugby is a different beast and I expect things to get ugly for them and lose face more often than not.
SOUTH AFRICAN CONFERENCE – AFRICA 2
Natal Sharks (1st)
Team Base: Durban, South Africa
Home Stadium: Kings Park
Coach: Gary Gold
Captain: Patrick Lambie (Flyhalf)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 4th/11th
Key Players Gained: Coenie Oosthuizen (Prop), Chililboy Ralepelle (Hooker), David McDuling (Lock), Jacques Potgieter (Back Row), Philip van der Walt (Back Row), Wandile Mjekevu (Wing), Willie le Roux (Fullback), Joe Pietersen (Outside Back)
Key Players Lost: Jannie du Plessis (Prop), Bismarck du Plessis (Hooker), Mouritz Botha (Lock), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Willem Alberts (Back Row), Ryan Kankowski (Number Eight), Fred Zeilinga (Flyhalf), Frans Steyn (Utility Back)
Superstars: Tendai Mtawawira (Prop), Marcell Coetzee (Flanker), Willie le Roux (Fullback)
Rising Stars: Thomas du Toit (Prop), Jean-Luc du Preez (Back Row), Dan du Preez (Back Row)
Preview
2015 was a disastrous season for the Sharks finishing the tournament in 11th position. The Sharks won their last three fixtures of the season which saved a few more red faces in Durban, however, their disciplinary problems were the cause for concern throughout the season with Captain Bismarck du Plessis, Frans Steyn and Jean Deysel suspended for four, five and seven weeks respectively. Their problems were compounded with a string of injuries in key positions and their depth simply didn’t cut it.
The post Rugby World Cup 2015 exodus was expected with a number of Sharks stalwarts heading over to Japan and Europe, but they have recruited well ahead of this year’s tournament. The forward pack has been bolstered with the signings of prop Coenie Oosthuizen, the abrasive Jacques Potgieter and former Cheetahs back rower Philip van der Walt. Willie le Roux now also calls Durban home and he will be competing with their other off-season recruit Joe Pietersen, for the fullback jersey.
Prediction: There is chat coming out of Durban that the Sharks will look to play a more expansive game in 2016. I expect there to be teething problems early on with playmaker Patrick Lambie due to miss a large portion of the season. They will still be able to put a formidable line-up onto the park and their fate will ultimately be decided with their matches against the Lions and more importantly, the Jaguars. Given the fact that they have a more settled line-up and have to do less travel, I think the Sharks will edge their conference, but their success will ultimately be determined by injuries and their ability to win on the road.
Argentina Jaguars (2nd)
Team Base: Buenos Aires, Argentina
Home Stadium: Estadio Jose Amalfitani
Coach: Raul Perez
Captain: Agustin Creevy (Hooker)
Superstars: Agustin Creevy (Hooker), Nicholas Sanchez (Flyhalf)
Rising Stars: Matias Moroni (Centre), Santiago Cordero (Wing)
Preview
The Jaguars will be the tournament’s bright spark in 2016. No other team in the competition has the international representation that Raul Perez has at his disposal. Like all Argentinian teams, they possess a strong pack and they will be led by Agustin Creevy, an exceptional scrummaging hooker and a master at the breakdown. Martin Landajo and Nicholas Sanchez form an experienced halves pairing and with livewire players like Matias Moroni, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet surrounding the experienced Juan Martin Hernandez. I expect the Estadio Jose Amalfitani in Buenos Aires to achieve fortress status before the season’s out, but their biggest challenge will be overcoming the large travel schedule ahead of them.
Prediction:
The Jaguars are going to make a statement in their first Super Rugby season and will quickly become most people’s second favourite team. There is a lot to be excited about with rugby in Argentina and their squad is a strong one balanced with young talent and experienced leaders. I believe that they will make the playoffs, and challenge for higher honours, but I seem them falling to a New Zealand team in the semi-finals. Huge overs for title honours though.
Golden Lions (3rd)
Team Base: Johannesburg, South Africa
Home Stadium: Ellis Park Stadium
Coach: Johan Ackermann
Captain: Warren Whiteley (Number 8)
2015 Position (Division/Overall): 2nd/8th
Players Gained: None
Players Lost: Schalk van der Merwe (Prop), Robert Kruger (Lock/Back Row), Alwyn Hollenbach (Centre)
Superstars: Warren Whiteley (Number 8)
Rising Stars: Jaco Kriel (Flanker), Faf de Klerk (Halfback)
Preview
2015 was the best year in Lions rugby history, having won a franchise record of nine matches. This included three wins on a four-match tour to Australasia, which left them the best of the South African touring parties. Under the guidance of former Lions lock Johan Ackermann, the Lions play an entertaining brand of rugby with abrasive and durable forwards that do the hard yards up front. They don’t have the big names like some of the other franchises do, however, that’s what makes them so likeable. They know what they are good at doing, they stick to it and they play a style of rugby that the other South African provinces need to adopt.
The Lions have always had a strong scrum and I don’t see that being any different this year. Their back row comprising of Warwick Tecklenburg, Jaco Kriel and captain Warren Whiteley will be one of the strongest in the completion, with Kriel a player I have huge wraps on. Faf de Klerk is a lively scrumhalf and despite his diminutive stature, he has pace to burn and an eye for a gap. Their backline could certainly use some recruits as it doesn’t include any regular Springboks, but it is important to note that this team has played together for the past four seasons in the Currie Cup, so the combinations are there, even though the X-factor might not be.
Prediction:
Other teams will continue to take the Lions a little bit more seriously this year after a great Currie Cup and Super Rugby campaign in 2015. They play the best brand of rugby in South Africa, but they are in a tough pool, so I expect them to finish mid-table.
Southern Kings (4th)
Team Base: Port Elizabeth, South Africa
Home Stadium: Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium
Coach: Deon Davids
Captain: Not released at time of writing – a worrying sign
Superstars: None
Rising Stars: Aidon Davis (Back Row)
Preview
There is not much to write about the Kings. Strangely enough they have already had a taste of Super Rugby in 2013 when they replaced the Lions for one season. That year they finished dead last and funny enough they actually had a better squad than what they will put on the field this season. The off-field issues that currently surround the Kings are utterly ridiculous and clearly reiterate the problems that currently surround South African rugby.
Prediction:
How the Kings have a Super Rugby license is beyond me. They are a club shrouded in financial difficulty and they have failed to attract any real talent to the region. They will be the whipping boys of the competition and will be fighting the Sunwolves for the dreaded wooden-spoon.
