Four teams and three matches remain to see who will be the kings of provincial rugby in the southern hemisphere (if not the world). We have been treated to some exceptional skill sets and hard-nosed rugby over the course of the season and it is fitting that at least one team from each conference remains, although I know many South Africans and New Zealanders would say that the Aussie teams have an easier passage. Last week, the Crusaders produced one of the best displays of rugby in this year’s competition, downing a Reds team full of firepower and the Brumbies clung onto a two point win over playoff virgins, the Cheetahs. As a result the Crusaders will travel north to Hamilton and the Brumbies will cross the Indian ocean to play the Bulls, who have also been one of the more consistent teams in recent years. Let’s have a look at the four remaining outfits to see where we can make some money. All four best bets cashed last week and as always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Crusaders -3.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Highest scoring half – First half @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Brumbies +9.5 (PYOL) @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Will there be a drop goal – Yes @ $2.50 – Sportsbet
Chiefs ($2.78) versus Crusaders ($1.60)
All eyes will be on Waikato Stadium on Saturday evening as the season premiers, the Chiefs host the fast-finishing Crusaders in the first semi-final in Hamilton. The reigning champions had the luxury of having an extra week’s preparation given their top of the table status and whether or not that will work in their favour remains to be seen. The Crusaders are the masters of business end rugby and that showed last week when they produced a scintillating display of clinical rugby to down the hapless Reds in Christchurch. In the process, the Crusaders have now become betting favourites for the premiership, which I don’t think many people would argue with.
Waikato Chiefs
Ever since their inception into the Super Rugby competition, the Chiefs have been renowned for their elusive backs. Names like Roger Randle, Bruce Reihana and Sitiveni Sivivatu come to mind. But the reason why they have reached new heights in recent years is because coach Dave Rennie has managed to develop some exceptional forwards and grunt upfront. The coaching team must also be commended and with a number of re-signings, team culture looks to be healthy. They certainly look a more balanced side in comparison to yesteryear, but they still possess the flare out wide and an accurate goal kicker to lead the total team points scored (458) and total tries scored markets (50) quite comfortably and breaking team records in the process. Evidently, a weak area for the Chiefs has been their defense, leaking 364 points so far this season, which ranks them the 9th best defensive team in the competition. This is something that they will certainly have to tighten up against the Crusaders, who thrive on mistakes and have the formula nailed down pat to grind their opposition into submission.
Looking at Dave Rennie’s match day squad this week, the home fans will certainly be confident. The coach has made seven changes to the team that faced the Blues a few weeks ago, but this reiterates the depth that the region has. Gigantic prop Ben Tameifuna has replaced his uncle Sona Taumalolo (France) as the front row try scoring machine and Hika Elliott will look to use his brief All Black’s experience this weekend. Captain Craig Clarke will play his last match for his franchise and young lock Brodie Retallick will certainly be an anchor in the line up for many years to come. Liam Messam missed this fixture in round 19 and his inclusion will give his team a huge lift. Tanerau Latimer is a warhorse and Matt Vant Leven has also produced some solid performances, so the forward pack has a lot of forward power. Looking at the back line, the Chiefs will need Tawera Kerr-Barlow to be on top of his game and his service to Aaron Cruden will be a huge catalyst if the Chiefs are to prevail. I believe an area of concern for the home side is the instability they have had with their centre pairings this year. Tim Nanai-Williams is out for the rest of the season and Andrew Horrell and Charlie Ngatai make up the combination this week. Asaeli Tikoirotuma and Lelia Masaga are lighting fast on the wing and if they are given too much space, they could certainly make the Crusaders pay. Gareth Anscombe retains the fullback role and his goal kicking will also be an integral part of the Chief’s night out.
The Chiefs head into this matchup having beaten the tricky Auckland Blues at Eden Park two weeks ago. It is hard to predict how the week off will affect them as it would’ve given a number of their players some extra days to get rid of niggling injuries, but at the same time, it can also have a funny way of stifling a team’s momentum. Home field advantage is a huge bonus at this time of the year as the Chiefs have managed to win seven of their eight home matches this season, and led at half time in seven of those (87.5%). Based on their historical achievements, the Crusaders are a team that warrant respect in Super Rugby and none more so than from the Chiefs. The Chiefs prevailed as victors in the first match of the year only to be comprehensively outplayed in the return fixture only two weeks ago. So, it is only fitting that these teams clash again when the stakes are higher to see who will claim bragging rights in the New Zealand conference in 2013.
Canterbury Crusaders
The Crusaders fell at this exact hurdle last season, but you get the feeling that with another year’s experience and their large contingent of All Black’s in red-hot form, their time is now. They enter the semi-finals firing, something they haven’t managed to do in recent seasons and the Bulls will be breathing a sign of relief, as they won’t have to play them unless both teams are victorious this weekend. The Crusaders game plan is situated around a brutal and dominant forward pack laying the platform for their backs to utilize the front foot ball that they are provided with out wide. Their great attacking play has made for some enthralling viewing and regularly as rugby fans wishing their team had the class, composure and clout that the Crusaders have in abundance.
When you look at their team sheet, they simply don’t have any glaringly obvious weaknesses. The front row are seasoned veterans and the lock pairing of Whitelock and Romano are reminiscent of Springbok greats, Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha. George Whitelock is an unsung hero who just gets the job done, with Matt Todd an ever-present threat at the breakdown. Kieran Read, one of the form players of world rugby over the last two seasons rounds out the pack, with Richie McCaw due to get some more game time off the bench. Andy Ellis thrives off his dominant pack and Dan Carter speaks for himself. Tom Taylor and Ryan Crotty are solid centres and Tom Marshall has been the Crusaders finest back this season. On the other wing Zac Guilford looks to have moved on from his once addiction to off-field indiscretions (for now) and Israel Dagg has finally found his feet and is a threat for any defense, whilst having the ability to diffuse the highballs kicked towards him with ease. How could this team not win, but then again how did they lose to the Force?
Prediction
Many pundits will deem this clash as the ‘real final’ as both teams play an attractive brand of rugby and never fail to attract the crowds each week. These two teams are easily the two best teams in New Zealand and I expect a fiery clash that will showcase the best of what New Zealand rugby has to offer. The crowd will play a huge part in this fixture and the Chiefs have a number of stalwarts that will be departing at the end of the season. The last time the Crusaders lost was against the Chiefs, but despite their poor road record (3/8), when Steve Walsh blows the final whistle, I expect the Crusaders to win and get one step closer to their almost uncatchable 8th Super Rugby title.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.60 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Crusaders -3.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Highest scoring half – First half @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
Bulls ($1.28) versus Brumbies ($4.60)
The Bulls host the teetering Brumbies at Loftus Versfeld on Saturday night in the second semi-final to see who will battle off with one of the New Zealand teams for Super Rugby glory. Like the Chiefs, the Bulls had the weekend off last week and would’ve had a keen eye on the Brumbies versus Cheetahs fixture on Sunday. In the end, the Brumbies managed to inflict an agonizing defeat on the Cheetahs in front of a poor Canberra crowd, but they did have to rely on a wayward kick from Cheetahs fly half Riaan Smit after the siren sounded. It was far from a clinical performance for the home team and coach Jake White even came out to the media and said they were lucky to win. In saying that, a win is a win and a sign of a good team is when they can win when they are on an off day, which the Brumbies certainly were.
Blue Bulls
The Bulls are starting to get used to semi-final rugby and that counts for a lot heading into the fixture this week at their beloved Loftus Versfeld. The Bulls have made this stage of the tournament six out of the past nine seasons and have gone onto win three Super Rugby titles in the process. Loftus has become a fortress and it is known as one of the most intimidating grounds to travel to in Super Rugby. The Bulls haven’t lost at home this season, but they are well aware of the threats that Brumbies pose and the havoc they can wreak at a moments notice. The Bulls are well known for utilising their powerful forwards to set the standard up front to open up spaces out wide for some other their lethal backs. However, some late season injuries to future Springbok captain Arno Botha and Pierre Spies, and the departure of Juandre Kruger to Japan have severely depleted their forward stocks.
Looking at the team coach Frans Ludeke has selected this week sees two changes to the side that were humiliated by the Stormers in the last round of the regular season. Lively halfback Francois Hougaard has replaced the departing Jano Vermaak who is off to France, but he will take his place on the bench this weekend. The second change sees IRB Junior World Cup player of the year in 2011 Jan Serfontein replaces his centre partner at that world cup Francois Venter to bolster the backline. As aforementioned, the forwards really set the tone for the Bulls and their front row is solid comprising of Springboks Greyling, Ralepelle and Werne Kruger. However, their scrum hasn’t been their strong suit this year and this will be an area the Brumbies will certainly look to target. Flip van der Merwe will continue to call the lineouts and their back row has stability with Stegmann, the aggressive Jacques Potgieter and captain Dewald Potgieter. The latter two are leaving South African shores at the end of the year so they will want to finish this season on a high. Fly half Morne Steyn controls the ship and currently holds the Super Rugby record for most points in a season (tied with Aaron Cruden) when he had a tally of 263 in the 2010 season. He has yielded 230 points so far this season and will need two exceptional performances in the remaining weeks to break the record and make it his own. He has an wealth of strike weapons out wide that combine both power and pace, but I would still say that the championship winning Bulls teams of the past exuded a bit more class.
ACT Brumbies
As mentioned last week, the Brumbies future looks bright with a great balance of seasoned veterans and promising youngsters coming through the ranks. Under the tutelage of Jake White and company, they are showing glimpses of the successful Brumbies team of yesteryear, who regularly sent shudders down the spines of their opposition. I still think they are a couple years off their best rugby and despite a shaky performance last week, they certainly have been one of the top four teams in this year’s competition.
Having trawled through a bank of statistics, a few of them certainly stood out. Interestingly, the Brumbies are the only team out of the remaining four who have a player in the top ten try scorers of the season list in Henry Speight, who has managed to cross the try line on eight occasions. Alarmingly, the Brumbies also have the worst disciplinary record of the top four, conceding six yellow cards to date. This is something they need to stamp out of their game because at this stage of the competition and against this quality of opposition, it is a big ask to play outnumbered for ten or more minutes. The Brumbies also concede more tries in the final quarter of their matches and this is when the Bulls attack is at their most efficient. In saying that the Brumbies know that the Bulls are most vulnerable in the periods just before and after half time and the Brumbies have been far more dominant in the opening 40.
One thing is for certain this weekend and that is that the Brumbies know how the Bulls will play. They use their forward pack to batter and bruise their opposition and then rely heavily on Morne Steyn to add the extras. Even though the Bulls have become synonymous with this style of play, they do it so well and they have proved time and time again that this foresight isn’t much of an advantage. Jake White has opted for consistency this week and has named an unchanged lineup to do battle. Prop Scott Sio is destined to be a Wallaby as his scrimmaging is sound and his ability to jackal balls on the deck makes him like another flanker. George Smith and Ben Mowen had quiet games last week and they will be looking to lead from the front and halfback Nic White will be better off for last week’s outing having spent a number of weeks on the sideline. For the most part, Christian Lealifano had an off day with the boot against the Cheetahs and he will need to be deadly accurate if the Brumbies are to live to fight another day. Jesse Mogg’s stocks have also fallen in recent weeks, but I’m certain he will be looking for some gaps, particularly once the Bulls forwards begin to tire.
Prediction
Loftus Versfeld has been a fortress for many seasons and the home fans will certainly do their best to rattle the tourists. The Bulls fell victim to the Brumbies in round seven in Canberra after they scored a length of the field try to tie things up, before the referee dubiously gave the home side a penalty in injury time. Revenge will certainly be on their minds this weekend and both teams will know whom they could be playing in the final before the match gets underway. I haven’t been totally convinced by the Brumbies in recent times and I am happy to disregard the Bulls loss to the Stormers as an outlier. Home ground advantage is key in playoffs and I just think the Bulls will have the edge in an extremely close and hard fought battle.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.28 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Brumbies +9.5 (PYOL) @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Will there be a drop goal – Yes @ $2.50 – Sportsbet
