Another season of Super Rugby has reached its concluding stages with six teams left fighting it out for provincial rugby supremacy. The Bulls were comprehensively beaten by the Stormers in Cape Town last weekend and in the process ended the longest winning streak of any team this season. As a result, the Chiefs of Hamilton became the minor premiers and won’t have to travel for the remainder of the tournament. Since 1996, only one team has won the title when they finished outside of the top two positions (Crusaders in 1999), which emphasises the importance of home field advantage. Furthermore, 44 out of the previous 55 playoff matches have been won by the home side. Looking at in-match statistics, over 90% of teams that are leading at half time go onto win the match in playoff rugby, which reiterates the need for a quick start either at home or when playing away. The Brumbies (3rd) play the Cheetahs (6th) in Canberra and the Crusaders face the Reds (5th) at what is becoming their fortress in Christchurch. A special mention must go to the Cheetahs, as they are the only team remaining that hasn’t won a Super Rugby title. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Crusaders -8.5 (PYOL) @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Brumbies 1 – 12 @ $2.68 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Brumbies vs Cheetahs Total points under 44.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Crusaders -6.5 (PYOL)/Cheetahs +15.5 (PYOL) @ $2.21 – Sportsbet
Crusaders ($1.27) versus Reds ($5.20)
The Crusaders have earned the right to host former Super Rugby champions (2011) the Reds in Christchurch on Saturday evening. Traditionally, the Crusaders are slow starters and this proved to be the case this year, but a strong back end of the season has allowed them to once again feature in the playoff series. Put simply, the Reds would be in a much safer position and most probably would’ve had the week off if they had beaten the Force on two occasions this year. Additionally, they have had a number of injuries throughout the season to deal with, however, there form has been good in recent weeks and they did manage to beat four New Zealand teams this year (haven’t played the Crusaders). This all points to an exhilarating contest in a cold and pressure-filled AMI Stadium on Saturday.
Canterbury Crusaders:
The Crusaders have been the most successful Super Rugby franchise since the inception of the tournament having remarkably featured in the playoffs 15 out of 18 times (83%). Furthermore, eight of those times they progressed to the finals and they have 7 Super Rugby titles in their trophy cabinet (1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2008). This is a record that no other team comes close to matching, which reiterates the strength, consistency and developmental capabilities of the Christchurch based squad. It must be said though that it has been a while between drinks having last tasted glory against the Waratahs in 2008, so another title is a long while overdue.
The Crusaders haven’t been defeated since round 15 against the Chiefs, but they comprehensively avenged that loss a few weeks later. I put their turn in form predominantly to the fact that Dan Carter is now back to playing his best rugby. Sure he has a forward moving pack in front of him and some players with gas out wide, but his game management is impeccable and his goal kicking has been top notch. Additionally, he has the team captain, Kieran Read hitting his straps alongside him and I think Read is easily one of the best rugby players on the planet. All eyes this weekend will also be on Richie McCaw, the man who symbolizes what rugby is all about. He will warm the reserves bench this weekend and when he gets on the field, it will be the first time he has taken the field at this level this season. He will certainly be blowing big ones and his legs will feel heavy, but his composure, skill and leadership have made him one of the greatest rugby players of all time.
Queensland Reds
The Reds have also been a successful Super Rugby franchise on the back of winning the title in 2011 at Suncorp Stadium (against the Crusaders). The Reds played their first Super 10 match in 1993, three seasons earlier than the Crusaders, and of their 21 attempts at Super Rugby glory, they have made the playoffs on 8 occasions (38%), which is an exceptionally lower strike rate than that of the Crusaders. However, you have to keep in mind though that the introduction of the Western Force and the Melbourne Rebels have severely depleted their squads over the years, with many players schooled in Brisbane and playing in the GPS competition being poached to other clubs. The Reds do boast an impressive record having won their 13 out of the last 14 clashes against New Zealand opposition, which is unmatched by any other franchise.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that under the tutelage of now Wallabies coach Ewen Mckenzie, the Reds went from 13th position to 1st place in two seasons. Looking at the personnel to take the field this weekend, alongside Kieran Read and Dan Carter, I would place Will Genia as a 2013 IRB player of the year candidate. The way he reads the game and sniffs out a gap is second to none as the men from the north realized in the recent British & Irish Lions series. An important subplot in this game involves the infamous Quade Cooper. On his day he can cut defenses to pieces, but he also has a knack of capitulating in important games (RWC semi-final against New Zealand). He returns to his country of birth this weekend and the crowd will be well and truly against him after his ongoing spat with the Kiwis ‘rugby God’ Richie McCaw.
Prediction:
I really see this fixture as the match of the round. Both teams have game-breakers and future hall of famers across the park. Home ground advantage is critical in playoff encounters and the red and black army will fill AMI Park to the brim. In terms of positional matchups, I have the Crusaders up 13 to 2 and on form you have to give the Crusaders the edge. The Reds have beaten the Crusaders before in the Super Rugby final in 2011, but that was in Brisbane and the Reds haven’t beaten the Crusaders in Christchurch for 14 years. These stats can only spell one thing and that is a Crusaders victory, but if the Reds forward pack can gain parity and deliver the front-foot ball that Will Genia and Quade Cooper can thrive on, who knows what could happen. For me, it would take a brave man to bet against the Crusaders this weekend and I except them to cleanup the Reds in route to what most likely will be a semi-final matchup against the Bulls in Pretoria next week.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.27 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Crusaders -8.5 (PYOL) @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
Brumbies ($1.33) versus Cheetahs ($3.90)
The nations capital will host the second qualifying final on Sunday afternoon when the Australian conference leaders the Brumbies clash with the highflying Cheetahs from Bloemfontein. The Brumbies have had a steady season, but their momentum was severely derailed last week when they succumbed to a gallant Force outfit 21 – 15 in Perth. The Cheetahs were fortunate to have the bye last week so they will be refreshed and would’ve allowed an extra day of travel to help stifle the effects that jet lag might play on the squad. Their previous fixture was a solid defeat of the Blues, which makes for a really interesting contest this weekend. They will also take confidence out of winning three of their past four matches on Australian soil.
ACT Brumbies
The Brumbies resurgence to the top of the Super Rugby pile has been a rapid one, thanks largely to the coaching staff of Rugby World Cup winning coach Jake White, Laurie Fisher and former Rugby World Cup champion Stephen Larkham. These coaches have unearthed a number of young talents and their experienced veterans have continued to set a high standard week in and week out. Looking at their tenure of 18 seasons in the Super Rugby competition, they have managed to qualify for the playoffs on five occasions (28%), however, this is their first finals series since 2004. Looking back at that team, it isn’t hard to understand why they did win the competition with names like Paul, Finegan, Smith, Gregan, Larkham, Giteau and Roff just to name a few. They beat the Crusaders in the final 47 – 38 in one of the most fascinating finals of all time and two players from that memorable day take their spots in the starting fifteen this weekend: George Smith and Clyde Rathbone.
Of all the teams remaining, the Brumbies have the defensive edge, only missing out to the Stormers for this year’s points conceded title. What is equally as impressive is their ability to score points either via forward domination or through their swift and uncompromising backs out wide. This was reiterated in June when the Brumbies defeated the Lions in Canberra, which given how the rest of the series panned out, was no mean feat. Their front row is strong, their locks are towering in the lineout and their back row bolstered by the return of George Smith are fearless. Nic White makes his return from a shoulder injury having not played for a few weeks and will team up with youngster Matt Toomua in the halves. Christian Lealifano will kick goals all night (if given the opportunity) and Speight, Mogg and Tomane (when he comes on) will be a constant threat to the Cheetahs tiring forwards. The Brumbies certainly have the makings of a championship team, but judging from last week’s outing, the Cheetahs certainly have a sniff.
Free State Cheetahs
Over the past few seasons, the Cheetahs have acquired more international fans than any other South African franchise. They generally buck the trend in terms of playing forward-oriented rugby and utilize their playmaking ability and ‘X factor’ players out wide to play an entertaining brand of rugby. The Cheetahs first played Super Rugby in 1997 and didn’t manage to feature with a losing record. They then disappeared into the rugby wilderness and when the competition expanded to 14 teams, they were selected as the fifth team in the South African conference. Since then, their highest season finish was a paltry 10th, but this season they have really turned the corner and have managed to reach the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The Cheetahs have never been able to match the financial status that other teams in South Africa like the Bulls, Sharks and Stormers possess and as a result, a number of their top players have been lured to other provinces. However, this year they have re-signed a mixture of their stalwarts and young talents, so the future is certainly looking brighter for the men donning the white and orange jerseys.
Some key victories this year have been against the Waratahs and the Blues and for the most part, they have dominated the local derbies. Led by the inspirational skipper, Adriaan Strauss it has been exciting to watch this team grow and although they only boast a handful of internationals, they play well collectively and have a number of unsung heroes. None more so than flanker Lappies Labushcagne, who has made more tackles this year than any other player. Number 8 Philip Van Der Walt and centre Robert Ebersohn also feature in the top 10 tackles of the season, which really emphasises how hard it is for this team to crack. It must be said though that Robert Ebersohn has also missed 35 tackles, with only winger Raymond Rhule worse than him (37), so I expect Jake White will have devised a game plan incorporating the use of their big forwards and backs towards these weak links. Early season injuries to Juan Smith and Johan Goosen could quite easily have spoiled the Cheetahs campaign, but it is a testament to their will, character and skill sets that they have finished in the top six of this arduous competition. The one concern I have for the Cheetahs this week are their backs, who are relatively small in comparison to the Brumbies and they only have one accurate territorial kicker, so you can expect the Brumbies to play a lot of field position from the outset.
Prediction:
The Brumbies and the Cheetahs have played each other on eight occasions, with the Canberra team winning six of them. These matches are generally high scoring, however, with the pressure cooker environment with what is at stake, if the Cheetahs go into their shell and play conservatively, they could get wiped off the park. With the match likely to be played in wet and miserable conditions, the clash of the forwards will be a huge battle. It is do or die this weekend for both teams, and even though I think the Brumbies are still a year or two off their best rugby, I think they will be able to handle what the Cheetahs throw at them this weekend and will pull away late in the match to end the Cheetahs fairy tale.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.33 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Brumbies 1 – 12 @ $2.68 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Brumbies vs Cheetahs Total points under 44.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
