After 125 games and 10,000 minutes of rugby, it all comes down to the grand final in Hamilton on Saturday evening, when the reigning champions and season premiers the Chiefs host the Brumbies of Canberra. It has been a riveting season that has seen a plethora of tries scored and some ferocious defensive play and regardless of the outcome this weekend, Super Rugby has once again delivered.

Best Bet 1: Chiefs -8.5 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Will there be a drop goal – YES @ $2.99 – Sportsbet

Chiefs ($1.31) versus Brumbies ($4.30)

Due to the random nature of the draw, the Chiefs and the Brumbies haven’t locked horns yet this year, so it is only fitting that they do so in the main event. There is some debate around whether or not this matchup makes the ‘Ideal’ final, but at the end of the day, both of them have managed to combat the arduous nature of the competition and have won when it mattered most. It will be an extremely physical encounter that is reminiscent of test match rugby and both teams will defend aggressively. Both teams also have a number of game breakers only adding to the entertainment value of this fixture. Before I go into more detail, I must mention that only one team out of 17 that has finished in position 3-6 on the Super Rugby log at the end of the regular season has ever won the title, so it isn’t surprising to see the Chiefs at such low and unbackable odds. Let’s have a look at each team in more depth to see where some betting opportunities lie and to see which team is better placed heading into arguably (I am for it) the biggest fixture of the provincial rugby calendar.

Waikato Chiefs

The Waikato Chiefs have really suppressed the ‘second year syndrome’ that has plagued many teams in the past, by once again making the grand final. They have played some exceptional rugby over the course of the season and none more so than their victory over the perennial powerhouses, the Crusaders last weekend. Against the odds, they Chiefs came from behind, trailing 9 – 3 at the break, to notch up 17 unanswered points in a jaw-dropping spell of rugby just after half time. The Chiefs piled on the pressure and just when it looked like the Crusaders had resurrected their usually impenetrable wall in defense, the departing Lelia Masaga (off to France) cut back against the traffic on a superb angle and monstrously powered his way over George Whitelock en route to the try line. Not long after, the Crusaders regained control of the match, until the usually ice-cool Ryan Crotty threw a no look pass to his outside, where the opportunistic Aaron Cruden plucked the ball in mid flight and coasted his way into the Crusaders in-goal untouched. It was clearly the defining moment of the match and even a sublime individual effort by Israel Dagg of the Crusaders and a late penalty goal wasn’t enough to halt the Chiefs from progressing to the final frontier.

The Chiefs haven’t lost at home to the Brumbies since 2007, albeit this statistic is less impressive when I mention they have only played two games in their region (Mt Maunganui and Hamilton) against this opposition over that time period. Both teams were involved in a thriller last year, when it took a late try to seal a narrow Chiefs victory, which will probably be a more accurate yard stick than prior results. The Chiefs will know that the Brumbies simply don’t attack from their own half. They rely heavily on Nic White, Matt Toomua, and Jesse Mogg to play field position, but the Chiefs have a dangerous ball runner in Lelia Masaga (if he is deemed fit), Aseli Tikoirotuma and Gareth Anscombe who will more than happily seek the gaps wherever possible. The Chiefs lineout was subpar last week, which only tells me that the Brumbies will look to put the ball into the stands more often than not. The Chiefs will know that the Brumbies are the competition’s strongest starters having led at half time in 14 matches, so nullifying them early will be imperative to the outcome of the match. The Chiefs are also the competitions strongest finishers and with the Brumbies grueling travelling schedule in recent weeks, they are favoured to finish with a bang.

ACT Brumbies

Last week, the Brumbies travelled across the Indian Ocean to the fortress known as Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. The Bulls rarely lose at home and prior to last weekend’s match had never lost a home playoff fixture. As you will already know, the Brumbies left it extremely late and nervously bucked the trend when promising centre and recent Wallaby call up Tevita Kuridrani went over on the stroke of full time. This all happened after the Bulls infamously adopted an attacking mentality, turning down three kickable penalty goals and eventually paid the price. Pierre Spies may not be in the form that he was in when he broke onto the scene many years ago, but it must be said that his leadership was missed.

I don’t think the majority of people realize the size of the mountain the Brumbies had to conquer last weekend by out bullying the Bulls, but it was extremely reminiscent of the Sharks campaign last year. The Durban-based side had to travel to Brisbane for the qualifying final where they toppled the Reds, then headed back to Cape Town where they courageously downed the premiership favourites the Stormers, before having to fly all the way back to Hamilton to play the Chiefs in the final, all in the space of two weeks and a half weeks. If you can’t remember how that final played out, the Sharks were outclassed 37 – 6 and were never in the game. As many as 16 Chiefs players from this campaign featured in last year’s final, so it only make sense to compare the Sharks of 2012 to this season’s Brumbies outfit. In all honesty there are a lot of similarities: a strong tight fight, technically sound back row, solid halves and some outstanding backs. So, are the Brumbies facing a similar onslaught?

The Brumbies will take confidence however, from their overall record against the Chiefs where they have won 11/18 encounters and have drawn on one occasion. It has been a long time coming, but it is only fitting that a number of their players, both young and ‘old’ have received Wallaby call-ups. Ben Mowen has been an inspirational leader and the senior playing group have really paved the way for their exciting youngsters to excel this year, which only bodes well for the future of Brumbies rugby. Admittedly, their season hasn’t been all smooth sailing with a couple of form slumps and some injuries to key personnel. When David Pocock went down a few months ago needing a full knee reconstruction, many pundits believed that the squad had lost it’s edge. But shortly after, and heavily influenced by the Brumbies coaching panel, the future hall of famer George Smith answered the SOS to return to Canberra. He was simply sensational against the Bulls and it was certainly a 10/10 performance, despite an embarrassing tap and go that he knocked on after winning an important penalty. Whether it was ball carrying, pilfering on the deck or his thunderous defense, he was ever present and the Bulls just couldn’t cope with his rugby IQ and skills, so will the Chiefs be able to? The Brumbies also have had the luxury of naming the same team for three weeks in succession, which could balance things out slightly as I don’t believe the Chiefs really know what some of their best combinations are (particularly in the centres).

Prediction

Unfortunately, it appears that the weather Gods will play a part in the result of this fixture. There appears to be rain in the area on Friday and Saturday, so despite the usually flawless surface of Waikato Stadium, conditions under foot look likely to be less than ideal for running rugby. The Chiefs have five players departing the franchise at the end of the season, so I think it would be fair to say that they will want to send these players off in style and continue to build on their dynasty. The Brumbies are still a team in development and I would be surprised if they weren’t playoff contenders over the next few seasons. But it must be said that no team has ever had to travel back from South Africa or vice versa and win the grand final and for that reason alone, advantage has to go to the Chiefs.

This final could very well be won from the back office. Both teams are renowned for having innovative and empowering coaching staff and this is only reiterated by both provinces already re-signing a large contingent of their squad members who are coming off contract at the culmination of the season. Coach Jake White and company will have no doubt have dotted the I’s and crossed the t’s pre-match and their game plan understandably, is one that shies away from their limitations and plays heavily on their strengths. However, I do think the Brumbies played their ‘final’ last week and the Chiefs are the reigning premiers, so it would be a brave man to bet against them and for the reasons spoken above, I see the Chiefs pulling away in the final stanza sending Hamilton into a state of ecstasy on Saturday evening with the sound of the cowbells ringing long into the night.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.31 – Betfair

Best Bet 1: Crusaders -8.0 @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Will there be a drop goal – YES @ $2.99 – Sportsbet

*If you think the Brumbies can win, make sure you check out Sportsbet’s Promo of $5 for the win (for the first $50).