Eight weeks in and the Super Rugby season is starting to take shape with four of the New Zealand teams and three South African teams placed in the top seven. The Aussies haven’t had the best start to the season, but the conference system supports a balanced representation in the playoff series. An interesting stat is that of the three teams that were introduced to the competition this year (Kings, Sunwolves, Jaguares), they have only managed to win two games of the 18 played. Last weekend, the Blue gave the Chiefs a scare in Hamilton, as did the Western Force with the Crusaders, however, the Stormers were convincing winners over the Sunwolves. On Saturday, The Hurricanes cruised past the Jaguares, the Reds upset the Highlanders, the Lions were too strong for the Sharks and the Bulls took care of the Kings.
Let’s get stuck into the individual match previews and make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Hurricanes -4.5 (Rebels) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Brumbies -2.5 (Waratahs) @ $1.90 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Bulls/Reds Total Points Over (anything under than 53.5)
Note: I will be posting some player performance markets on twitter in the lead up to the games this weekend
Crusaders ($1.20) vs Jaguares ($4.40)
The Crusaders and the Jaguares kick off round eight of Super Rugby action at AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Friday afternoon. The Crusaders were lucky to leave Perth with a one-point win over the Western Force last Friday after reserve flanker Jordan Taufua crashed over with a couple minutes to go. The Jaguares weren’t as fortunate losing their fifth match in a row after going down to an improved Hurricanes outfit 22 – 40 in Wellington.
Crusaders: LWBWWWW
Jaguares: WLBLLLL
Prediction:
The Crusaders head into this matchup with five consecutive wins, a season-record only the Chiefs can match. In saying that, they were pretty poor against the Force last weekend and were lucky to escape with the win. Back at home this week, there will be a big crowd to support the Crusaders in what is coach Todd Blackadder’s last of eight seasons in charge and what will also be Ryan Crotty’s 100th Super Rugby match. Of the teams playing this weekend, the Crusaders have the best attacking statistics, having scored 188 from six matches (31 points per game). Blackadder has selected a strong squad for this match with Israel Dagg back in the mix at fullback for his first match of the season.
The Jaguares have been this season’s biggest disappointments. With the talent that they have, one could say that they are really missing European stars Marcos Ayerza, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Marcello Bosch and Juan Imhoff. Head coach Raul Perez has made nine changes to his team and recalled captain Agustin Creevy, and a number of other Test match stars like Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Facundo Isa, Juan Martin Fernandez and Joaquin Tuculet. It is important to note that the Jaguares have the worst discipline in the competition giving away five yellow cards from their six matches played.
This is a really hard match to pick from a betting standpoint with a big line being afforded to the Jaguares. I do think the Crusaders will have too much in the tank, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jaguares give them a bit of a scare.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.20 – William Hill
Rebels ($2.40) vs Hurricanes ($1.57)
The second match on Friday sees the Rebels host the Hurricanes at AAMI Park in Melbourne. The Rebels will be full of confidence and refreshed heading into this matchup after their maiden win in Sydney over the Waratahs two weeks ago. The Hurricanes also took a step in the right direction last week with a comfortable win over the Jaguares in Wellington, on the back of a hat-trick by Julian Savea, despite the NZRU showing concern over his fitness levels this season. After winning their first battle back in 2011, the Hurricanes are currently riding a three game win streak over the Rebels.
Rebels: WLWWLWB
Hurricanes: LLWWWBW
Prediction:
As predicted, the Rebels have been a much improved outfit this season and coach Tony McGahan knows how important it is to win their home matches. The Rebels are currently tied with with Brumbies for top spot in the Australian conference, but they have also played a number of the teams in the bottom half of the ladder. McGahan has named a settled line-up and will have his team pumped up for a match against last year’s finalists.
Looking at the Hurricanes, they are starting to build nicely after a very slow start to the season. They are still way off the pace that they set last year, but they are starting to show glimpses of what they are capable of. Hooker and captain Dane Coles has been one of the Hurricanes best since coming back from injury. He is a great anytime try scorer option given his ability to always be in the right place when supporting a line break or when sniping from close quarters. Julian Savea looks to be in better shape after his hattrick, but still has some way to go to return to full fitness. The Hurricanes have scored 40 points in each of their last three matches and although the Rebels might keep it tight, I can see the visitors pulling away in the final quarter of the match.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.57 – William Hill
Best Bet 1: Hurricanes -4.5 (Rebels) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Cheetahs ($1.17) vs Sunwolves ($5.25)
The final match on Friday pits the Cheetahs against the Sunwolves of Japan at the Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein. The Cheetahs are coming off their bye as well, but they were spirited in their 18 – 23 loss to the Bulls in round 6. The Sunwolves still remain winless in this competition, this time copping a hammering from the Stormers, 19 – 46 in Cape Town.
Cheetahs: LLWLLLB
Sunwolves: LBLLLL
Prediction:
The Cheetahs find themselves with a lot of ground to make up currently sitting in third place in the Africa 1 conference behind the Stormers and the Bulls, but the Sunwolves can overtake them in Bloemfontein. The Cheetahs managed to beat the Sunwolves a month ago in Singapore. On that day, the Sunwolves raced to an early lead before Cheetahs coach Franco Smith brought on some of his strike weapons to overturn a 15-point deficit to win by one point. The Sunwolves have been given a big start and one that I would probably take, but I couldn’t do so with much confidence given how both teams have performed this season.
Predicted result: Cheetahs to win @ $1.17 – Luxbet
Blues ($1.47) vs Sharks ($2.70)
The Blues and the Sharks open Saturday’s card with an intriguing clash at Eden Park in Auckland. The Blues rattled the Chiefs last weekend in Hamilton, before going down 23 – 29 in Hamilton, whereas, the Sharks were frustrating in their loss to the Lions, which saw the visitors secure their first win in Durban and go ahead in the South African conference in the process. Astoundingly, the Sharks have beaten the Blues in their last 10 matches, including the last five in Auckland.
Blues: WLLDBWL
Sharks: WWWDLBL
Prediction:
The Blues host one of their bogey teams in Super Rugby on Saturday, but they will be happy with their last outing against the Chiefs. Tana Umaga is still tinkering with his line-up on a weekly basis to find his best combinations, but two future superstars to always keep an eye on are the Ioane brothers. Akira (flanker) is a huge presence and also has a great turn of foot for a big man so he finds it easy to beat defenders, something that has been honed during his time with the New Zealand Sevens. Younger brother Rieko plays on the wing and has just a big a future in the game, whether it be Sevens, Super Rugby or for the All Blacks. He has lightning pace, a good work rate and is an excellent finisher.
The Sharks started the season with a bang, but it would be fair to say that they have fallen off the pace in recent weeks. Under Gary Gold, they are struggling at scrum time and although they are trying to play an attacking game, they aren’t doing it with a lot of efficiency. The Sharks are currently ranked the second best defensive team in the competition letting in 95 points from six matches (16 points per game), but the Blues will be sure to give them a workout. The loss of flanker Marcell Coetzee for the season is a huge blow for the Sharks and can’t be underestimated. The Sharks play the Highlanders, the Chiefs and the Hurricanes (back in South Africa) in the coming weeks so this will be their best chance of a victory. The Sharks will fight hard but they are missing some big names and I think the Blues will get their first win over the Sharks in 11 years.
Predicted result: Blues to win @ $1.47 – William Hill
Waratahs ($2.15) vs Brumbies ($1.70)
The Waratahs and the Brumbies will renew their longstanding rivalry at Allianz Stadium in Sydney on Saturday night. The Waratahs return to action after a one-week rest and I have no doubt Darryl Gibson would’ve read a lot of his players the riot act after their disappointing loss to the Rebels in round 6. The Brumbies will also be refreshed and they too have a lot of work to do after the Chiefs exposed some of their weaknesses when they inflicted the biggest ever loss for the Brumbies in Canberra two weeks ago. Earlier this season, the Brumbies snapped a four-game losing streak to the Waratahs with a comfortable win in Canberra, but the Brumbies haven’t won in Sydney since 2012.
Waratahs: WLBLWLB
Brumbies: WWWLWLB
Prediction:
This is going to be a very intriguing match with both teams coming off losses before their byes last week. The Waratahs have been simply awful and Michael Cheika says they look to be ‘trying too hard’ this season. They still have so much class in their team from one to 23, but they will need to tidy up their scrum and high-error count, which a lot of the time is a result of them pushing the pass. A win against the Brumbies is a must for the Waratahs who are in danger of suffering three successive home defeats for the first time since 2011.
The Brumbies have also been facing some issues of late and will be without David Pocock for this match. Alongside issues with the CEO and the board, bullocking number eight Ita Vaea was forced to retire this week due to a heart condition. The backlines look to be fairly evenly matches, but the Brumbies have the edge in the pack and should give their powerful and pacey backs enough front-football to capitalise on en route to covering the line.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.70 – William Hill
Best Bet 2: Brumbies -2.5 (Waratahs) @ $1.90 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Bulls ($1.33) vs Reds ($3.30)
The Reds find themselves on the Highveld on Saturday night when they face the Bulls at Loftus. The Bulls will feel a lot better about themselves after securing an important win over the Kings (38 – 6) and the Reds will be too, after winning their first match of the season over the reigning champions, the Highlanders (28 – 27) at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The corresponding match last year saw the Bulls beat the Reds 43 – 22 in Pretoria.
Bulls: LWBDWWW
Reds: LLLDLBW
Prediction:
The Bulls are currently riding a three-game winning streak, however, they have been against the Sunwolves, Cheetahs and Kings. They haven’t been overly convincing, but they do have a young team and one that will only get better over the next couple of seasons. Coach Nollis Marais has recalled a number of his strike players this week, but whether it will be enough remains to be seen.
The Reds started with a bang last weekend against the Highlanders and really had the defending Champions rattled. But as the game went on, errors started to creep in and they came within a whisker of squandering what should’ve been comfortable win when they were up by 22-points. The Reds haven’t won on the Highveld since 2001, but I actually think this will be their best chance. They looked tired at the backend of the game against the Highlanders and the altitude may catch them short by a few on Saturday night. I expect this match to be high-scoring and that will be my play once that market is released, especially with clear skies predicted.
Predicted result: Bulls to win a close encounter @ $1.33 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Bulls/Reds Total Points Over (anything under than 53.5)
Lions ($1.70) vs Stormers ($2.15)
The final match of the round is an all-South African derby between the Lions and the Stormers at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. The Lions find themselves at the top of the South African 2 conference after a punishing 24 – 9 win over the Sharks in Durban last weekend. The Stormers were also victorious after securing their biggest win of the season, a 46 – 19 thrashing of the Sunwolves. The Stormers have beaten the Lions 15 of the last 16 matches, with the Lions only recent victory coming at home in 2014. With that being said, the most recent match played was a 19 – 19 draw last year.
Lions: WWLWBLW
Stormers: WWLWWBW
Prediction:
The Stormers are currently ranked the best defensive team in the competition, only letting in 75 points in their six matches (12.5 per game) and the Lions are the best attacking team in South Africa averaging 29.5 points per game and have beaten more defenders (163) than any other team in the competition. It’s an interesting clash of styles, but the Stormers have some attacking weapons of their own right with captain Juan de Jong and Cheslin Kolbe in the backline. I will post a twitter play for this match later on in the weekend, but it is going to be a fascinating contest nonetheless.
Predicted result: Too hard to call
