Five rounds down and the Super Rugby ladder is starting to take shape. Over the first few rounds, the New Zealand teams have displayed their enormous depth and ability to bring youngsters into established setups. The Brumbies are flying the flag in Australia, whilst the Stormers and the Sharks are controlling their respective conferences in South Africa. This weekend, there are seven matches on the card with the Highlanders hosting the Force and the Crusaders take on the Lions in Johannesburg on Friday. Saturday’s action kicks off with a match between the Blues and the Jaguares, followed by the match of the round between the Brumbies and the Chiefs in Canberra. The Kings take on the Sunwolves in Port Elizabeth, the Bulls host the Cheetahs and the Waratahs and the Rebels round out the round in Sydney on Saturday.

Last week’s bets went two from four, with the losses only missing out by a point or two. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: Crusaders +2.5 (Lions) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Jaguares +10.5 (Blues) @ $1.90 – Tab.com.au
Best Bet 3: Chiefs +5.0 (Brumbies) @ $1.90 – William Hill
Best Bet 4: Sunwolves +1.5 (Kings) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Highlanders ($1.08) vs Force ($8.50)

The Highlanders return home to Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin on Friday afternoon when they host the struggling Western Force. In round five, the Highlanders produced a defensive master class to defeat the Rebels 27 – 3. In Hamilton, the Force had no answers to a jet-lagged Chiefs outfit and went down 10 – 53 after another uninspiring performance. Amazingly, from six encounters, the Highlanders have never managed to beat the Force, but it will most likely be a different story this weekend.

Highlanders: LWWWW
Western Force: LWLLL

Prediction: 

The reigning Champions have been impressive in the opening rounds of the season, with their defensive efforts and ability to capitalise on their opportunities standing them above their opponents so far. They haven’t enjoyed a lot of possession, but they have been deadly accurate in converting defensive pressure and box kicks into points. Jamie Joseph now has a squad that is interchangeable around the permanent fixtures of Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekitoa and Ben Smith. Looking at the Force, they are a team that is gritty, but don’t really have any standout players. Three losses in a row of 17, 35 and 43 points doesn’t bode well for them so early on in the season and if they aren’t careful, it could be another drubbing this weekend. Two weeks away from their bye, the Highlanders will be looking to head into that break with six wins from seven matches and I expect they will, courtesy of a comfortable win over the Force this weekend.

Predicted result: Highlanders to win comfortably @ $1.08 – Sportsbet 

Lions ($2.12) vs Crusaders ($1.72)

The second match on Friday’s card (albeit a late one), takes place at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, where the Lions host the Crusaders. The Lions are coming fresh off the bye, but will be happy with their 3 – 1 start to the season. The Crusaders will also be brimming with confidence having ended the Sharks unbeaten run last weekend with a 19 – 14 victory. The Lions will be looking for revenge this weekend having lost to the Crusaders in Christchurch by 28 points last season.

Lions: WWLWB
Crusaders: LWBW

Prediction: 

The Lions will be refreshed and raring to go against a traditionally strong touring side in the Crusaders this weekend. The home team will be buoyed by the fact that head coach Johan Ackermann and the bulk of their squad signed contract extensions this week, which reiterates that positive culture that has been created in Johannesburg. The Lions have been impressive so far this season, with a strong scrum, accurate lineout, a workmanlike back row and nippy halves. Unfortunately for the Lions, Elton Jantjies has been bracketed in the number ten jersey. Having read some reports from South Africa, it looks unlikely that he will play. This will be a big blow for the home team because he has been the general in that position over the past few seasons.
I was always confident that the Crusaders were going to be too strong for the Sharks last week. The forward pack was strong at the set pieces and the backs really feasted off the front foot ball that they received. However, it was their territorial kicking that was most impressive as they pinned the Sharks down in their own territory time and time again. The return of four All Blacks added the starch and class that has been missing in some of their games this season. At 1.95 metres and weighing in at 125kg, Fijian International Nemani Nadolo continues to be a handful for his opposition on the wing. He is almost impossible to stop and when he does get stopped, he attracts so many defenders he creates space for his teammates.
The Crusaders are currently rated the best in the competition in terms of tackle success and they will need to be at their best in Johannesburg against a Lions team that understands the way they want to play. The Lions will need to keep it tight if they want to win, but I am confident that the Crusaders will be too strong again, hopefully on the back of Richie Mounga finding his kicking range.

Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.72 – William Hill

Best Bet 1: Crusaders +2.5 (Lions) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Blues ($1.28) vs Jaguars ($3.70)

The first of four matches on Saturday sees the Blues host the Jaguars at the QBE Stadium in Albany. The Blues had the week off in round five, but they will be seething at the fact that they only managed a draw against the Reds in Brisbane the week before. The Jaguars will also be disappointed with their start to the season, this time getting beaten by the Stormers in Buenos Aires, so both teams will be desperate for a win.

Blues: WLLDB
Jaguars: WLBLL

Prediction: 

This is going to be an intriguing matchup and one I am really looking forward to. Both teams have showed glimpses of what they are capable of, but at the same time they wouldn’t be happy with their season records. Since opening the competition with a narrow win over the Highlanders, the Blues have failed to get into any rhythm and they often go missing during the crucial stages of matches. This was evident in their draw with the Queensland Reds two rounds ago. They will be fresh after their bye and coach Tana Umaga has hired a mental skills coach to help them with their road struggles (Yes, this includes Albany as well).

There was plenty of hype around the Jaguares heading into their inaugural season and I was a firm believer that they would contest the playoffs this season. After a first round win over the Cheetahs, they have lost to the Sharks, Chiefs and Stormers. Although, the aforementioned teams are more than likely bound for the playoffs, there are a lot of things the Jaguars need to improve. They have some dangerous players littered across the field, but their defense and ill-discipline is a real cause for concern. Last weekend, they had over 60% possession and territory, yet only managed eight measly points. They were guilty of a number of handling errors and their scrum lacked the traditional power that Argentinian teams have become synonymous for. Their coach has opted to rest a number of their stars, but I do feel the have the depth to cover it the big handicap.

Predicted result: Blues to win @ $1.28 – William Hill

Best Bet 2: Jaguares +10.5 (Blues) @ $1.90 – Tab.com.au

Brumbies ($1.52) vs Chiefs ($2.55)

Fans at GIO Stadium in Canberra will be treated to the match of the round on Saturday night when the Brumbies take on the Chiefs. Last weekend in Bloemfontein, the Brumbies struggled past the Cheetahs 25 – 18, whereas the Chiefs were extremely clinical in their 53 – 10 defeat of the Western Force. Brumbies and Chiefs fans will no doubt remember Aaron Cruden’s penalty kick after the fulltime siren gifting the Chiefs the win in 2015.

Brumbies: WWWLW
Chiefs: WLWWW

Prediction: 

The Brumbies are currently sitting in third position and top the Australian conference, whereas the Chiefs are in the box seat having won four of their five matches and also gained three bonus points in the process. I have been burned by the Brumbies over the last two weeks. For a squad that has so much class, they really have looked well below their best, despite that coach Stephen Larkham haling last weekend as a ‘gutsy’ win. After a slow start to the season, David Pocock was back to his best last week in the Free State with a number of trademark steals and sound defensive play. The injury to Scott Sio has affected the home team’s scrum, but there appears to be enough depth at present for it to be a real concern. Tomas Cubelli has been impressive at halfback, but the general timing in the backline seems off and the outside backs in particular have been rusty.

Looking at the Chiefs, they have scored 29 tries (5.8 per game), which is nine more than the Brumbies, who have scored the second most thus far. They lead the competition across a number of other stats lines as well including clean breaks, metres, offloads, and lineout successes. Michael Leitch, the Japanese captain and number eight had another stellar outing and it will be interesting to see how he, Tom Sanders, and Sam Cane combat one of the best back rows in the game of Fardy, Pocock, and Ita Vaea. One of the unlikely standouts of this campaign so far is Chiefs midfielder Charlie Ngatai. His four-try outing against the Force had it all and he is well and truly in contention for the All Blacks inside centre position. Coupling Ngatai’s efforts with that of fellow youngster Damien McKenzie and the Chiefs have a very dangerous backline. The smiling assassin has been very impressive this season making metres, scoring tries, setting up tries and although his goal-kicking needs some work, he will play for the All Blacks in the near future. I wouldn’t be surprised if they threw him into the deep end at some point this year.

This has all the hallmarks of a good game. The Brumbies will have to be careful with their discipline this weekend and cannot afford to have anyone spend time on the sideline. The Chiefs will have to also be careful given that the Brumbies have the potential to score tries from anywhere, but the visitors form is much better and I suspect they will cover the line.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $2.55 – William Hill

Best Bet 3: Chiefs +5.0 (Brumbies) @ $1.90 – William Hill 

Kings ($1.57) vs Sunwolves ($2.40)

The current cellar-dwellers, the Kings and the Sunwolves will face off at Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth on Saturday night. The Kings were gutsy in their 20 – 42 loss to the Hurricanes last weekend, as were the Sunwolves, with the Japanese franchise going down 27 – 30 to the Bulls in Singapore.

Kings: LBLLL
Sunwolves: LBLLL

Prediction: 

This matchup is going to be anything but a blockbuster. Both teams have really struggled in Super Rugby this season and will be eager to register their first win. The Kings put up some respectable performances in New Zealand, but would’ve realised how hard it is to win on the road in this competition. The one shining light for the Kings this year has to be hooker Edgar Marutlulle. He is a workhorse around the field, accurate at lineout time and has an eye for the try line. His low centre of gravity is working wonders for him, so it will be intriguing to see how he matches up with Japanese hooker Shota Horie.

The Sunwolves have also been racking up their frequent flyer miles, travelling between Tokyo and Singapore at present, but their first tour of the Republic will be something that they are really looking forward to. The Japanese forwards have failed to it the mark so far this year and their lineout has been absolutely atrocious and clearly showed they didn’t have enough time together during pre-season. Flyhalf Tusi Pisi is starting to come into his own for the Sunwolves and is directing his troops around the park well. He will have an important role to play in PE this weekend, especially when it comes to creating space for winger Akihito Yamada, who has four tries under his belt this season and ran for the most amount of metres by any player in round five.

I truly believe that the Sunwolves will get their first win of the season. They have come so close in some of their matches so far this season and despite the Kings improving defence, the visitor’s superior skillsets should help them secure the victory, in a high-scoring match on South Africa’s Eastern Cape.

Predicted result: Sunwolves to win @ $2.40 – William Hill

Best Bet 4: Sunwolves +1.5 (Kings) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Bulls ($1.28) vs Cheetahs ($3.70)

The final match on Saturday night sees the Bulls host the Cheetahs at Loftus Versfeld in what promises to be a traditional South African bashathon. The Bulls return home from Singapore where they narrowly defeated the Sunwolves, whereas the Cheetahs will be buoyed by their undaunted performance against the title-favourites the Brumbies last weekend at the Free State Stadium.

Bulls: LWBDW
Cheetahs: LLWLL

Prediction: 

The Cheetahs look like they just don’t know how to win. Their defense is susceptible to the weakest of attacks and the Bulls will be hungrier for the victory. With Jesse Kriel moving to fullback, he will be allowed more space and this is a good move by their coach given that he hasn’t shown his 2015 form so far this season. There is likely to be a lot of points in this match, but the home team should have enough in their arsenal to get the four points.

Predicted result: Bulls to win by 7 @ $1.28 – Sportsbet

Waratahs ($1.30) vs Rebels ($3.50)

For the second week in a row, Sunday Super Rugby returns when the struggling Waratahs host the Rebels at Allianz Stadium in Sydney. The Waratahs have been ordinary this season and they were lucky to escape with a 15 – 13 win over the Reds in Brisbane. The Rebels match against the Highlanders showed that Tony McGahan still has some way to go in terms of developing his team after they went down 3 – 27. Since the Rebels made their Super Rugby debut in 2011, they have only managed to defeat the Waratahs on one occasion from a total of ten attempts. This includes the Waratahs winning both fixtures last year.

Waratahs: WLBLW
Rebels: WLWWL

Prediction:

There are clearly some issues in Sydney after a number of successful years under the guidance of Michael Cheika. Darryl Gibson’s team appear to be ‘hungover’ from the Cheika era and have started the season very poorly with two wins from four. They were lucky to escape Brisbane with a win last weekend, especially given how their scrum looked like it was on roller skates. It is good to see youngsters Jack Dempsey and Jed Holloway starting to make a name for themselves, but I have been most impressed with halfback Nick Phipps, who continues to develop as a player and as a leader and looks a certainty for the Wallabies number nine jersey again this year. What is probably most impressive about his game at the moment is the fact that he doesn’t shirk the defensive work, last week making 10 tackles, a match-high. Bernard Foley’s inclusion was also needed and it will be interesting to see how Israel Folau faces up at outside centre this week, if he is named there as the reports suggest.

The Rebels will want to quickly put last weekend’s loss to the Highlanders behind them. They were outplayed in all facets of the game and Tony McGahan would’ve been extremely disappointed from his team’s output. Although I feel that the Rebels will put the Waratahs in some worrying positions, the Waratahs have a number of superstars who can win a game on their own, as was the case with Israel Folau last weekend in Brisbane with two tries.

Predicted result: Waratahs to win narrowly @ $1.30 – William Hill