We are officially a quarter of the way through the Super Rugby season and only one of the 18 teams, the Sharks, remain undefeated. The Brumbies are currently sitting atop the Australian conference, the Chiefs are leading the way in New Zealand, the Stormers are ahead in the first African conference, with the Sharks leading the second one. There are eight matches on the card this Easter weekend, with only the Hurricanes and the Kings doing battle on Good Friday. Saturday’s action kicks off in Hamilton where the Chiefs take on the Force, the Rebels host the Highlanders, before the Sunwolves welcome the Bulls in Singapore. The two matches in South Africa are between the Cheetahs and the Brumbies and the Sharks and the Crusaders. The Stormers travel to Buenos Aires to face the Jaguars and the Reds will host the Waratahs on Sunday at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.
Last week’s bets didn’t go according to plan for the first big loss of the season, but such is life when it comes to betting and Super Rugby. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Saturday Plays:
Best Bet 1: Highlanders -3.5 (Rebels) @ $1.91 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Brumbies -9.5 (Cheetahs) @ $1.91 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Crusaders +3.5 (Sharks) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Waratahs -6.5 (Reds) @ $1.82 – Bet365
Hurricanes ($1.01) vs Kings ($19.00)
The first match of round five takes place at the Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Friday afternoon, when the Hurricanes face the hapless Kings. After starting the season with two straight losses, the Hurricanes have found some form winning their last two, including a comprehensive victory over the Force last weekend in Palmerston North. On the other hand, the Kinds are winless from three matches, having been beaten by an average of 34 points.
Hurricanes: LLWW
Kings: LLBL
Prediction:
In Palmerston North, the Hurricanes showed glimpses of their 2015 form when they tore through the Western Force last weekend. The forward pack stood up, with Chris Eves impressing at prop and Ardie Savea was everywhere and certainly looks like putting pressure on Sam Cane for the All Blacks number seven jersey. Rugby League convert Ngani Laumape also had a strong outing and is showing promise at the start of his career. The Kings are only really capable of scoring tries by running around you, intercepting or feasting off turnovers and although this approach might yield some points against the ‘Canes, the home side’s class, power and skill-sets will trump the Kings by another 30-point drubbing.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win comfortably @ $1.01 – William Hill
Chiefs ($1.13) vs Western Force ($6.00)
The first of seven matches on Saturday sees the Chiefs return to Hamilton to face the battling Force. The Chiefs spoiled the Jaguars party in a thriller last weekend in Buenos Aires, whereas, the Force were handed a rugby lesson by the Hurricanes. Of the seven matches played between the Chiefs and the Force, the home team leads 5:2 including last year’s 35 – 27 victory.
Chiefs: WLWW
Western Force: LWLL
Prediction:
The Chiefs have circumnavigated the globe over the past couple of weeks having travelled from NZ to South Africa, to Argentina and back to Hamilton. Coach Dave Rennie will be pleased with the wins over the Kings and the Jaguars, especially as the Chiefs showcased both their forwards and back strengths. Returning home to face an out-of-sorts Force outfit won’t be their biggest challenge of the season, but the Force are a gritty team that love catching the more favoured teams off their guard. Matt Hodgson continues to be a workhorse around the field, lock Adam Coleman dominates aerially at lineout time and Dane Haylett-Petty is one of the most consistent fullbacks in Australia at present. Once again, the handicap is large and I wouldn’t be confident either way, especially with the home team no doubt fatigued after their global tour.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.13 – William Hill
Rebels ($2.75) vs Highlanders ($1.45)
Super Rugby returns to Aami Park in Melbourne on Saturday evening, when the Rebels host the reigning champions, the Highlanders. Last weekend, the Rebels handed the Sunwolves their biggest loss of the season, 35 – 9 in Tokyo. The Highlanders looked like winning by a large margin against the Waratahs, however, they switched off in the second half to only win by four points. Of the four matches played to date, the Rebels have only managed one win over the Highlanders, with the average margin going to the New Zealanders by 14 points.
Rebels: WLWW
Highlanders: LWWW
Prediction:
The Rebels played some good rugby last week in Tokyo and coach Tony McGahan’s stern words after the narrow victory over the Reds the week before no doubt spurred them on. The Rebels standout players have been captain Sean McMahon and Adam Thomson in the pack, alongside the halves pairing of Ben Meehan and Jack Debreczeni and wingers Tom English and Dom Shipperley, who have been making some big metres down the flanks. McGahan will be most impressed by the Rebels defensive effort last week, holding the Sunwolves tryless.
After going down in the season opener to the Blues, the reigning Champions are on a three game win streak with victories over the Hurricanes, Lions and Waratahs. Last year’s unheralded pack is starting to really dominate with an interchangeable front row, industrious lock pairing and a dynamic back row consisting of Elliott Dixon, the underrated Shane Christie and the powerhouse, Liam Squire. Combine that with the world’s best halfback in Aaron Smith, flyhalf Lima Sopoaga, All Blacks centre Malakai Fekitoa, dangerous wings and the best fullback in the game, Ben Smith and you have a formidable lineup. I can’t bet against them while they are playing the type of rugby they are and although, the Rebels will lift at home and try and grind out the visitors, there is too much attacking potency in the visitor’s team not to capitalise and win by at least a try.
Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.45 – William Hill
Best Bet 1: Highlanders -3.5 (Rebels) @ $1.91 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Sunwolves ($7.00) vs Bulls ($1.11)
The Japanese Sunwolves return to the Singapore National Stadium on Saturday night when they host the Bulls from Pretoria. The Super Rugby newcomers will be disappointed by their last outing, a 9 – 35 loss to the Rebels. The Bulls will be feeling better about themselves though, having snatched a late draw against the Sharks at home last weekend.
Sunwolves: LBLL
Bulls: WLWW
Prediction:
The Sunwolves are quickly turning into a first-half team, usually playing some great rugby, before being outpaced to the finish line. This is something that Mark Hammett will need to work on because this is an arduous competition and any weaknesses are often exploited by the opposition. Having only played home matches so far, its not really acceptable to still not have a win under their belts. This week, they will come up against a big and burly Bulls pack that has some exciting talent out wide. Adriaan Strauss and Arno Botha are leading a young Bulls pack and doing a good job of it so far, with Rudy Paige controlling matches well from scrumhalf. The best player I believe so far for the Bulls has been fullback Warrick Gelant. The former South African under 20 player possesses a strong running game that complements his big boot. This keeps the opposition in two minds, whereas in the past, Bulls rugby has been about kicking for field position.
The Bulls will have too much power, pace and outsmart the Sunwolves in Singapore, but it might not be until later on in the game when they pull away.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.11 – William Hill
Cheetahs ($5.00) vs Brumbies ($1.17)
The Cheetahs head back to Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein on Saturday night when they face the Brumbies. The Cheetahs were outplayed by the Lions last weekend in Johannesburg, with their defensive issues once again costing them dearly. The Brumbies also tasted defeat, but for the first time this season, they went down to the Stormers 11 – 31. Of the 11 matches played, the Brumbies have won eight of them, but they haven’t won in Bloemfontein since 2009.
Cheetahs: LLWL
Brumbies: WWWL
Prediction:
If you read about the Brumbies online or in the papers this week, you wouldn’t think that they were genuine title contenders. They were awful against the Stormers last weekend in a Cape Town and simply got out-kicked and outmuscled across all areas of the game. David Pocock had a quiet game by his standards and Christian Leali’ifano’s inaccurate boot came back to haunt him once again. The Brumbies discipline is also a real cause for concern, with Josh Mann Rea red carded for elbowing. They are constantly having players sent to the bin and you can’t do that against quality opposition. Yes, there were a few dubious refereeing decisions, but the fact the Brumbies organisation is in crisis off the field (with their CEO being stood down and then reappointed on legal grounds) probably didn’t help either. There is too much class in the Brumbies outfit and knowledge in the coaching panel for the Brumbies to play that poorly again.
The Cheetahs did manage to score three tries last week against the Lions, but they are always going to. They have great attacking flair, but defensively their organisation is a mess. They have leaked a number of soft tries this season and coming up against one of the competition’s most potent attacks will be a stern test. The home team might hang in there early on, especially if they can pinch some cheap points, but I do think the Cheetahs are going to cop the Brumbies ‘A’ game this week and things could get ugly in Bloemfontein.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win easily @ $1.17 – William Hill
Best Bet 2: Brumbies -9.5 (Cheetahs) @ $1.91 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Sharks ($1.60) vs Crusaders ($2.35)
The Sharks and the Crusaders will fight it out for five crucial points on Saturday night at Kings Park in Durban. The Sharks will be gutted having drawn last weekend to the Bulls in Pretoria, especially after missing a golden opportunity from in front after the final siren had sounded. The Crusaders spirits would’ve been lifted after a comprehensive 57 – 24 thumping of the Kings in Christchurch.
Sharks: WWWD
Crusaders: LWBW
Prediction:
The Crusaders easily dispatched of the Kings last week before jumping on a plane en route to Durban. All Blacks Codie Taylor, Joe Moody, captain Kieran Read and Andy Ellis are all expected back for the visitors, alongside Ryan Crotty who looks likely to be promoted from the bench. With an already strong lineout and dominant scrum, the forward pack will face a stern challenge from the Sharks. The Crusaders will continue to look to create space for Nemani Nadolo, one of rugby’s most devastating backs. Although there are a couple of positions in the backline that are up for grabs, coach Todd Blackadder is starting to assemble a team that could really be prominent come the business end of the tournament. They are huge overs at the moment to win the tournament at $21.
The Sharks will be kicking themselves having not achieved four straight wins last weekend, but on a positive note, they do remain the only unbeaten team in the competition. They haven’t been lighting the world on fire in recent weeks and the Crusaders are a strong touring team and I think they will use their African sojourn to really kick-start their season. I think they are great value in this match and happy to take the points on offer.
Predicted result: Crusaders to sneak it @ $2.35 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Crusaders +3.5 (Sharks) @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
Jaguars ($1.60) vs Stormers ($2.35)
The penultimate game of round five is a cracker, with the Jaguars hosting the Stormers at the Jose Amalfitani Stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Last weekend, the stage was set for the Jaguars, as they played their first home match, but they were edged by the Chiefs, 26 – 30 in a thriller. The Stormers will be ecstatic with their 31 – 11 victory over the previously undefeated Brumbies, as they played a tactically brilliant game to overpower the title-contenders.
Jaguars: WLBL
Cheetahs: WWLW
Prediction:
It seems that any matches that the Jaguars play, they are entertaining high-octane rugby. They have an issue with their decision making at present as they often look to push the pass, as opposed to building up pressure through accurate phase play. They are always in with a shot though, as their attack is extremely strong, but they will be put to the test but a strong defensive outfit this weekend. The Stormers have a pretty ordinary travel record in recent years and are a different team away from the picturesque Newlands. They did well to defend the Brumbies last week and were accurate in pinning the visitors in their own half. I am tipping the home team this week, as the home team’s backs are far stronger than the tourists. It should be a cracking game though.
Predicted result: Jaguars to win narrowly @ $1.60 – William Hill
Reds ($3.20) vs Waratahs ($1.36)
Sunday afternoon rugby returns to Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, where the Reds host the Waratahs in a traditional derby. The Reds improved significantly last week, only to end their match with the Blues in a stalemate (25 – 25). The Waratahs match followed a similar storyline, with the visitors (Highlanders) racing out to a lead, before the ‘Tahs fought back bravely, only to lose by four points.
Stormers: LLLD
Waratahs: WLBL
Prediction:
The Reds and the Waratahs will square-off for the second time this season on Easter Sunday. The Reds have been gradually improving each game, scoring two fantastic tries against the Blues, on the back of a solid performance from rising scrumhalf Nick Frisby. The Queensland scrum continues to be their biggest attacking weapon, although opposition coaches have been flummoxed by some of the refereeing decisions. The backline has a wealth of talent, however, they just don’t put it together often enough or for long enough, but that will improve as the season goes on. The return of Liam Gill is also a huge boost to the team from a physical and mental point of view. He is a very astute footballer that reads the game well and contorts himself into advantageous positions at the breakdown. He will give the pack an extra edge.
The Waratahs match with the Highlanders was synonymous with one of rugby’s most famous clichés, it was a game of two halves. The Highlanders hit the ground running before the Waratahs came back with four late tries, including two to promising number eight Jed Holloway. The loss of Tatafu Polota-Nau to a broken arm is a big blow to the visitors, but this is offset by the return of Bernard Foley, the incumbent Wallabies flyhalf. Kurtley Beale has been sensational so far this season and I expect Israel Folau to have more of an influence on this match, especially coming up against his co-League and AFL recruit, Karmichael Hunt.
The fans in Brisbane are confident that their boys can do the job, but considering the Waratahs lead the aggregate score over the past five matches 150 – 28, must be concerning for the home team. Although the Reds will target what appears to be a frail Waratahs scrum, there is enough talent and will amongst the other players to drive the Reds into submission in front of their home fans. I expect the Tahs to win by more than a try.
Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.36 – William Hill
Best Bet 4: Waratahs -6.5 (Reds) @ $1.82 – Bet365
