We are almost a quarter of the way through the Super Rugby regular season and only two teams remain undefeated from their three matches played – the Brumbies and the Sharks. Across the board, the standard remains high and a number of youngsters are starting to make a name for themselves, none more so than Chiefs playmaker Damien McKenzie. Looking ahead to this weekend, on Friday afternoon the Hurricanes will host the Western Force, the Waratahs will face the Highlanders, before the final match of the day sees the Bulls clash with the Sharks. Saturday’s action-packed schedule sees the Sunwolves welcome the Rebels, the Crusaders take on the Kings and the Reds will face off with the Blues. The Lions take on Cheetahs, the Stormers host the Brumbies in one of the matches of the round before the Jaguares play their first match on home soil against the Chiefs.
Last week’s bets went three out of four for a nice profit. I have a number of plays this week, but I am most confident that the Brumbies can get the job done in Cape Town. Let’s get the weekly preview started and hopefully we will end up in the positive come Sunday morning. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Friday Plays: 

Best Bet 1: Hurricanes – Total Lineout Steals Over 0.5 (vs Force) @ $1.85 – Crownbet 

Best Bet 2: Sharks ML (vs Bulls) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) 

Saturday Plays: 

Best Bet 3: Rebels -4.5 (Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play
Best Bet 4: Blues -4.5 (Reds) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 5: Brumbies ML (x2 Units) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Hurricanes ($1.12) vs Western Force ($6.50)

The fourth round of Super Rugby action kicks off in Palmerston North at the Arena Manawatu on Friday afternoon when the Hurricanes host the Western Force. The Hurricanes head to regional New Zealand having picked up their first win of the season last weekend against the Blues at Eden Park. On the other hand, the Force were humbled by the Brumbies in front of their ‘sea of blue’ in Perth for their second loss of the season. Interestingly, the Force have never beaten the Hurricanes from ten attempts, with the average winning margin across those seven fixtures being 15 points.

Hurricanes: LLW
Western Force: LWL

Prediction: 

The Hurricanes got their season going last weekend with a confidence boosting victory over the Blues at Eden Park. Chris Boyd will be pleased that his troops were able to old the Blues out for the last 15 minutes, when the Blues were hot on attack. It was a valiant effort in defence and halfback TJ Perenara’s two tries proved to be the difference in the end. This week, we have learned that Nehe Milner-Skudder has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a dislocated shoulder that requires surgery. His versatility and ability to dance through gaps will be missed, but Jason Woodward should now get an extended run after having an injury plagued season in 2015.

It was always going to be an uphill battle for the Force last weekend against the Brumbies as they were simply outclassed across the park. They did fight back, but it was too little too late. The most important thing about the Force is their grit and ability to stay in contests, so I wouldn’t be rushing out and jumping on the Hurricanes line. I do think the Hurricanes will have too much in the tank for the Force, but very rarely are the visitors involved in a total blow out.

Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.12 – William Hill 

Best Bet 1: Hurricanes – Total Lineout Steals Over 0.5 (vs Force) @ $1.85 – Crownbet 

Waratahs ($1.70) vs Highlanders ($2.15)

One of the matches of the round takes place at Allianz Stadium in Sydney on Friday night when the Waratahs host the 2015 Champions, the Highlanders. The Waratahs are coming fresh off the bye and will be well rested heading into this match, but the Highlanders are on a two-game win streak having beaten the Hurricanes and Lions in successive weeks. This match will be a replay of last year’s semi-final, in which the Highlanders were victorious 35 – 17 Sydney, their second victory over the ‘Tahs last year.

Waratahs: WLB
Highlanders: LWW

Prediction: 

This is a really difficult match to predict as it is hard to gauge where the Waratahs are really at so far this season. Despite an upset in the season opener against the Blues, the Highlanders continue to play attacking rugby on the back of solid defence, breakdown pressure and turnover ball. Both packs are strong and the back rows are going to have a huge influence in the match. Aaron Smith and Lima Sopoaga give the Highlanders the edge in the halves and Ben Smith will lineup opposite of Israel Folau in the clash of the world’s best fullbacks. Although the match will be played in Sydney, you have to back the Highlanders given their form over the last two weeks and the fact that they are the reigning Champions, but it will be close.

Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $2.15 – William Hill

Bulls ($2.10) vs Sharks ($1.74)

The overnight match on Friday features a traditional South African derby when the Bulls host the Sharks at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. The Bulls will be energised after their week-off, especially having beaten the Rebels the week before, whereas the Sharks are currently topping the South African conference having won all three matches against the Kings, Jaguars and Stormers. The Bulls have won seven of the last 10 matches against the Sharks, including the last three and the visitors haven’t won on the Highveld since 2008.

Bulls: LWB
Sharks: WWW

Prediction:

Bulls Coach Nollis Marais has named his most balanced and settled lineup of the season, with Springboks featuring throughout the starting 15. The changing of the guard is well underway in Pretoria, with some exciting youngsters coming through the ranks. The addition of Sevens flyer Jamba Ulengo on the wing will inject some pace into an already dangerous back three and the return of Jesse Kriel off the bench will draw some concern for the visitors in the second half.

The Sharks head into this matchup on the back of a bruising encounter with the Stormers. Coming up against a Bulls outfit that is fresh off the bye, this can either work for or against them. The match is going to be won up front, so a lot will be expected from the front five. The Sharks back row of the du Preez twins and Marcel Coetzee have worked excellently in tandem this year, but they will have another firm examination on Friday against the likes of Arno Botha, and newcomers Jannes Kirsten and Roelof Smit. The Sharks backline has improved week on week and the reintroduction of JP Pietersen on the wing against the Stormers was a masterstroke. He cut the Cape defence to pieces, setting up a try for Joe Pietersen, a player who has shown that some time in Europe certainly helps with game management and player development. The Sharks have been the more consistent team this season, they are battle-hardened and I can see them prevailing by a handful of points.

Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.74 – William Hill

Best Bet 2: Sharks ML (vs Bulls) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) 

Sunwolves ($3.00) vs Rebels ($1.40)

The first of six matches of Saturday comes to us from the Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium in Tokyo, where the Japanese Sunwolves welcome the Melbourne Rebels. The Sunwolves got off to a lightning start in Singapore last weekend, before being overcome by the Cheetahs in a high-scoring affair. The Rebels were very much in the same boat having raced out to a big lead against the Reds, before prevailing by just the two points in Melbourne.

Sunwolves: LBL
Rebels: WLW

Prediction: 

This promises to be an intriguing clash with the Sunwolves still searching for their first victory and the Rebels looking for only their second overseas win in franchise history. The travel schedule has been massive for the visitors having just been to South Africa en route to Tokyo via Melbourne. Despite this, they have enough grunt in their forward pack to create the Sunwolves some problems and with the addition of captain Nic Stirzaker to the starting lineup should solidify their offensive output. I don’t necessarily think the Rebels are going to run away with it, but Tony McGahan would’ve put a rocket up his troops last week and they should respond well.

Predicted result: Rebels to win @ $1.40 – William Hill

Best Bet 3: Rebels -4.5 (Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play

Crusaders ($1.01) vs Kings ($17.00)

AMI Stadium in Christchurch will be the venue for the Crusaders matchup with the Kings on Saturday afternoon. The Crusaders have stuck to their traditional ways of starting the season slowly, but before their bye round last weekend they did manage to beat Blues. This week they face the Kings, a team that has to fight well above their weight every week and as a result, they remain winless and have the worst points differential in the competition. This will be the first match played between these two provinces.

Crusaders: LWB
Kings: LBL

Prediction: 

This is a match that the Crusaders can and will use to kick-start their 2016 campaign. They have a forward pack that is good enough to win matches on their own and with Ryan Crotty returning to the centres, there should be a lot more impetus and craft in the backline. The Southern Kings were gallant to score 24 against the Chiefs last weekend, but playing away from home with a substandard squad will only yield one result.

Predicted result: Crusaders to win comfortably @ $1.01 – William Hill

Reds ($2.75) vs Blues ($1.45)

Super Rugby action returns to Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night when the Queensland Reds host the Auckland Blues in Brisbane. Three losses from three matches is what I probably expected early on from the Reds this season. Although they showed huge improvement against the Rebels, only going down by two, they are still well below the Super Rugby standard. The Blues are probably a year or two ahead of them in terms of redevelopment and cleaning out the deadwood in the organisation, but they will need to reverse their form having lost two consecutive matches to the Crusaders and the Hurricanes.

Lions: WWL
Cheetahs: LLW

Prediction: 

The Reds have been woeful this season and although their second half performance was a positive sign in Melbourne, they are still struggling to play for eighty minutes and be effective on both sides of the gain line. Tries are looking unlikely and given the change to the bonus point rule this season (you have to score three or more tries than your opposition), it looks very unlikely that the Reds will feature in the top half of the draw. The scrum took a bit of a backwards step last weekend and will once again be under pressure against the Blues. Charlie Faumauina and James Parsons both have All Blacks experience and I expect them to put a lot of pressure on hooker Andrew Ready. The Blues have a much more balanced back row and more attacking threats out wide. I expect there to be a number of Blues fans at Suncorp Stadium and I can see the home team having to play catch-up rugby, which will work right into the Blues favour, with the visitors likely to win by a converted try.

Predicted result: Blues to win by more than a try @ $1.45 – William Hill

Best Bet 4: Blues -4.5 (Reds) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Lions ($1.23) vs Cheetahs ($4.20)

The first match on Saturday coming to us from the Republic involves the Lions and the Cheetahs. The Lions have had a positive start to the season after a successful tour, whereas, the Cheetahs are still searching for their first win.

Lions: WWL
Cheetahs: LLL

Prediction: 

The Lions and the Cheetahs traditionally play out some high-scoring matches, at least in recent times anyway. Both teams have been travelling as of late, but the Lions will be happy about the prospect of playing their first match of the season at Ellis Park. The Lions have a lot more structure to their play and although the Cheetahs can catch poor defences napping, the Lions will be able to hold them out and assert themselves on the scoreboard to a victory. Lions 1 – 12 looks like the likely outcome.

Predicted result: Lions to win @ $1.23 – William Hill

Stormers ($2.00) vs Brumbies ($1.80)

The match of the day on Saturday takes place at the picturesque Newlands Stadium in Cape Town where the Stormers host the undefeated Brumbies. The Stormers were edged by the Sharks in a grueling thriller last weekend to taste defeat for the first time this season. The Brumbies continued their unbeaten start to the tournament with a 31 – 14 win over the Force in Perth. In this corresponding fixture last year, the Stormers edged the Brumbies 25 – 24, after a Christian Leali’ifano missed a conversion from directly in front of goals to gift the home team the victory.

Stormers: WWL
Brumbies: WWW

Prediction: 

The table-topping Brumbies will face their toughest test of the season thus far, coming up against the Stormers in their own back yard. The Stormers played into the Sharks hands last week, adopting the bully approach that South African rugby has become synonymous for. It failed against the Sharks and I can guarantee you that this approach will fail against the Brumbies as well. The Brumbies have a massive edge in the backline as well, so the Stormers will need to find a balance. With a lack of a playmaker that can control a game when it comes to running, passing or kicking, the Brumbies will nullify the big Stormers forwards and catch them napping in the outside channels. I expect the Brumbies to win by 10 points.

Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.80 – William Hill

Best Bet 5: Brumbies ML (x2 Units) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Jaguares ($1.68) vs Chiefs ($2.20)

The final match of the round sees Super Rugby head to the Jose Amalfitani Stadium in Buenos Aires for the first time for a clash between the Jaguars and the Chiefs. The Jaguares have started the season in rusty fashion, narrowly beating the Cheetahs before going down to the Sharks. The week off would’ve helped them refresh mentally and physically, but they are coming up against a Chiefs outfit that ran riot against the Kings last weekend in Port Elizabeth.

Jaguares: WLB
Chiefs: WLW

Prediction: 

In another tough match to call, the Jaguars and the Chiefs is set to be an offensive showdown in Buenos Aires. The Jaguars are still finding their feet in this competition, mixing brilliance with ill-discipline, but I do still believe they will improve and be a threat come the playoffs later this season. Agustin Creevy is a solid leader and an effective hooker up front, but their pack hasn’t gained the ascendency that I would’ve expected up front, thus far. The backline is full of talent and the Argentinians are starting to produce a number of quality outside backs, none more so than Santiago Cordero and Emiliano Boffelli.

The Chiefs have a balanced squad across the board with Sam Cane leading the forward pack and Aaron Cruden marshalling his backline troops. Damien McKenzie, the smiling assassin, has been terrific in the opening month of the tournament, scoring tries, creating line breaks and excelling with his goal kicking with a 10 from 10 performance last week in Port Elizabeth. The Chiefs have had a mammoth travel schedule over the past couple of weeks and the Jaguars have a point to prove in their first home fixture. I do think the Chiefs with the handicap is value though in what should be a high-scoring game.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $2.20 – William Hill