Super Rugby returned after a seven month break last weekend with nine matches totalling 18 hours of live coverage. Probably a bit too much for some, but I wouldn’t have it any other way. All teams looked to play an attacking brand of rugby and why not given that it is the start of a four-year cycle and a new ‘attacking’ era. However, that doesn’t always make for the most attractive rugby as passes were pushed and people were put in uncompromising positions. In saying that, a lot of the 53 tries that were scored in the first round of action were simply sensational. The advent of the new bonus point rule whereby teams have to score three more tries than their opposition keeps teams in the game for longer and presents coaches with more challenges in terms of when they can rest their players.
This week there will be eight matches with the Brumbies vs Waratahs (Friday) and the Sharks vs Jaguars (Saturday) being two matches that I will keeping a very close eye on. From a betting standpoint, three of my five best bets cashed last weekend, however, we only managed to break even. Let’s get the weekly preview started and hopefully we will end up in the positive come Sunday morning. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Friday Plays: 

Best Bet 1: Crusaders vs Blues – Total Points Over 47.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet 

Saturday Plays: 

Best Bet 2: Stormers -5.5 x 2-Units (vs Cheetahs) – 1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Best Bet 3: Jaguares +4.5 (vs Sharks) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Note: More Saturday plays to come – keep an eye on twitter

Crusaders ($1.54) vs Blues ($2.50)

The first match of round two sees the Crusaders host the Blues at AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Friday evening. The Crusaders lost their third match in succession and the sixth of their last seven to the Chiefs last weekend and will be looking to bounce back against a Blues team that upset the 2015 champions, the Highlanders in Auckland. The Crusaders have won the last four against the Blues and haven’t lost to them at home since 2004 – a stretch of eight matches.

Prediction: 

The Crusaders reputation of being a slow starting team was reaffirmed in round one and I think fans of the region would be happy that this will be Todd Blackadder’s last season in charge. Blackadder has made just the one change to the match day squad with Pete Samu coming onto the bench for the injured Reed Princep. The home team’s All Blacks contingent of Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read and Fiji’s star Nemani Nadolo all had quiet starts to the season, so I would expect their class to shine a bit brighter this weekend.
Under new coach Tana Umaga and with a young squad, the Blues showed great promise and resolve to beat the defending Champions. Ihaia ‘slim shady’ West, Melani Nanai and flanker Blake Gibson all had strong games, with the latter certainly a player to watch over the coming seasons. The Blues will be buoyed by by the return of captain Jerome Kaino this week in what will be his back row partner Steven Luatua’s 50th match. Rene Ranger also returns to the Blues starting lineup and he should provide some good impetus for his team if he receives front foot ball.
AMI Stadium has lost it’s fortress status over the past couple of seasons so the Blues won’t be intimidated heading to Christchurch. The weather forecast appears to be clear at this stage so I would expect this match to be high-scoring, but I wouldn’t be confident in suggesting a head-to-head bet. The Blues will be confident and excited about the prospect of winning two on the trot, but I think the Crusaders will burst their bubble in a back-and-forth clash.

Predicted result: Crusaders to win narrowly @ $1.54 – William Hill

Best Bet 1: Crusaders vs Blues – Total Points Over 47.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet 

 

Brumbies ($1.36) vs Waratahs ($3.20)

The match of the round will take place at GIO Stadium in Canberra on Friday night when the Brumbies host the Waratahs. The Brumbies were the most impressive team in round one after inflicting a 52 – 10 defeat on last year’s losing finalists, the Hurricanes at the same venue. The Waratahs looked equally as good against a Reds team that failed to pack any punches, winning 30 – 10. The Waratahs will head to the nation’s capital with a bit of confidence knowing that they have beaten the Brumbies the last five times they have played.

Prediction: 

Captain Stephen Moore, David Pocock and Christian Leali’ifano led from the front against the Hurricanes, with the home team outclassing last year’s finalists in every facet of play. The Brumbies scored more tries than any other team in week one (7), but it is important to highlight their defence, given the attacking threats they had to subdue from the Hurricanes. The Brumbies front row of Alan Alaalatoa, Stephen Moore and Ben Alexander was strong and will look to cause the Waratahs some problems this week, especially with the visitors no longer able to call upon the services of Sekope Kepu. Scott Fardy is also often overlooked as he doesn’t do the flashy stuff, but his number suggest he hasn’t missed a beat from an exceptional season in 2015 for both the Brumbies and the Wallabies.

The battle between both David Pocock and Michael Hooper will be immense and worth the price of admission alone. Both players attack the game in different ways with Pocock more of an immovable pilferer, whereas Hooper doesn’t always engage at the breakdown, but focuses more on creating hesitation for the attackers with his positioning and pace. Both players were excellent in round one and it will be interesting to see how much influence either man will have on the game. Another crucial battle this week will be between the halfbacks Tomas Cubelli and Nick Phipps, both of which had fantastic season openers last weekend. The Waratahs scrum isn’t as strong as it has been in the past and it will definitely be an area where other teams are going to look to attack them this season.

Don’t count this Waratahs team out because they do possess a number of game-breakers and still field the majority of the team that won the Super Rugby competition in 2014. This match is very important in the context of the season as I expect these two teams to finish one and two in the Australian conference. Interestingly, the Brumbies have lost four out of five matches backing up from a 50-point victory and although the Waratahs will be in with a shot, the Brumbies look like the real deal this season and should gain the ascendency up front and on the scoreboard in a close encounter.

Predicted result:  Brumbies to win @ $1.36 – William Hill

Chiefs ($1.12) vs Lions ($6.50)

The first match on Saturday comes to us from Waikato Stadium in Hamilton, where the Chiefs and the Lions lock horns. Both teams were victorious in round one with the Chiefs edging the Crusaders 27 – 21 and the Lions were too strong for the Sunwolves in Tokyo, beating the newcomers 26 – 13. The Chiefs are currently riding a five game win streak over the Lions and they haven’t ever lost to the Lions in Hamilton in 9 matches dating back to 1996.

Prediction: 

The Chiefs and the Lions once played in Johannesburg in 2010, with the visitors winning 72 – 65 in the highest scoring Super Rugby match ever. Both teams like to play running rugby and both displayed exactly that last week with wins over the Crusaders and the Sunwolves. Damien McKenzie and Shaun Stevenson, two players who I alerted you too in my preseason preview, both had outstanding games for the Chiefs. However, the later won’t feature this week through injury. It was also good to see Aaron Cruden back running the show after a dismal year with injuries in 2015. Michael Leitch, Japan’s inspirational captain will come off the bench and will no doubt be a handful for the visitors.
Looking at the Lions, Johan Ackermann has only made three changes to the starting team. Their back row of Kriel, Tecklenburg and Whiteley will need to be on point if they are to slow down the Chiefs high tempo. Elton Jantjies will also need to kick his goals when on offer. They have had a mammoth travel schedule over the past week and this may count against them in the final quarter of the match. The Lions have won their last three matches outside of the Republic and although they will hang with the Chiefs for a little while with their work rate something they pride themselves on, the Chiefs should have too much in their armoury en route to delivering a win for the Waikato faithful.

Predicted result:  Chiefs to win @ $1.12 – Luxbet

Highlanders ($1.56) vs Hurricanes ($2.45)

The Highlanders and the Hurricanes will face off in a rematch of last year’s Super Rugby Final when they clash at Forsyth-Barr Stadium in Dunedin. Neither team got off to the best start in round one, with the Highlanders going down to the Blues 31 – 33 and the Hurricanes were thrashed by the Brumbies 51 – 10. The Hurricanes will be looking to overturn last season’s heartbreaking Finals loss, but will have to do so away from home in front of a boisterous crowd on New Zealand’s South Island.

Prediction: 

This is going to be a fantastic match with both teams eager to return to the winner’s circle. There are All Blacks littered throughout both squads and the conditions will be perfect for running rugby under the roof at Forsyth-Barr Stadium. Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph has made three changes to his team this week bringing in prop Brendon Edmonds, Luke Whitelock (at the expense of Liam Squire, which has me baffled) and Matt Faddes who replaces Waisake Naholo who will be sidelined for up to 12 weeks with his second broken leg in less than a year. The Hurricanes have made just the one change to the match day 23 this week, bringing in James Marshall on the bench, while the starting 15 remains the same. Exciting fullback Nehe Milner-Skudder has been bracketed at fullback and given we are still in the early rounds, I wouldn’t be surprised if he sits this match out.
Unlike the match against Brumbies, the Hurricanes forwards will be more prominent in this fixture. If Milner-Skudder plays, I give the Hurricanes a real chance of covering the line, but I will wait until kick-off to make that decision.

Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.56 – William Hill

Reds ($1.42) vs Force ($2.90)

The Queensland Reds play host to the Western Force at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night in what I predict to be one of the more unentertaining matches of the round. The Reds were ordinary in their defeat to the Waratahs last weekend and coach Richard Graham’s days are looking numbered. The Force also got their season started on the wrong foot, going down 19 – 25 to the Rebels. The Reds were victorious in both matches against the Force last year and will look to continue that trend this weekend.

Prediction: 

This will be one of the few games of the season where the Reds will start favourite in 2016. Against the Waratahs, they dominated possession and territory, but still failed to capitalise on numerous chances, especially winger Chris Feauia-Sautia butchering a try after attempting to bulldoze his way over Kurtley Beale with the line in sight. Seven line breaks for one try simply isn’t good enough. In saying that, the Reds scrum and lineout were strong and Japanese flanker Hendrik Tui put in an industrious performance. Karmichael Hunt finds himself at inside centre this week after his best performance in a Reds jersey and it is probably a position that gives him the best chance of playing for the Wallabies.
The Western Force’s back row has always been their strong suit and it was no different against the Rebels last week. Michael Foley is a coach under pressure and although they tried to play a wide-ranging game, they were guilty of trying to get the ball to the edge of the field without winning the battle up front and at the breakdown. Flyhalf Jono Lance and Dane Haylett-Petty are the best backs at the Force in my opinion, but their tight five will need to ensure they have quality ball if they are to break their two game skid to the Reds. Although I don’t expect there to be a big turnout at Suncorp, I think the Reds can scrape through.

Predicted result: Reds to win an uninspiring match @ $1.42 – William Hill

Bulls ($1.40) vs Rebels ($2.82)

The Bulls will play their first match of the season at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria on Saturday night when the Melbourne Rebels come to town. The Bulls were outclassed in their round one matchup with the Stormers, whereas, the Rebels started the season with a 25 – 19 win over the Force. The Rebels have never beaten the Bulls from three attempts, with the Pretoria-base franchise racking up 40 points or more in all games.

Prediction: 

The Bulls gave it their all against the Stormers in Cape Town last weekend, but they were simply outclassed. They return to the Highveld on Saturday night and still field a strong pack, but the loss of Springbok centre Jesse Kriel can’t be underestimated. In round one, the Rebels suffered a curse of the number 10 jersey, when Debreczeni pulled out before kick-off and his replacement Mike Harris left the field in the first half with an injury that looks likely to sideline him for a couple of months. Newcomer Reece Hodge answered the call and had an outstanding debut scoring two tries and kicked his goals with his cannon launcher of a boot. At the time of release, Tony McGahan hasn’t named his team, but I expect there to be a few injuries. It is a touch match to predict and the Rebels are in with a good chance of winning their first match in South Africa, but I think the Bulls might just scrape it.

Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.40 – Sportsbet

Cheetahs ($3.05) vs Stormers ($1.40)

The penultimate match of round two involves the Cheetahs and the Stormers, two teams who would be happy with their performance last weekend. The Cheetahs grinded their way to a narrow one-point loss to the Jaguars, whereas the Stormers convincingly beat their old foes, the Bulls with a bonus point in Cape Town.

Prediction: 

The Stormers established themselves as the team to beat in South Africa this year after they managed to wear the Bulls down before running in three tries to collect a bonus point. The Cheetahs, assisted by a numerical advantage hung in there with the Jaguars and coach Nollis Marais would’ve been ecstatic with their performance, especially from his tight five. Last week I called Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit the best locking combination in Super Rugby and they didn’t disappoint with a huge effort against the Bulls. They are both big units that contribute heavily at scrum time, are equally adept in the lineout and both have strong ball carrying abilities. Potentially a Matfield-Botha combination in the making, but I’m sure Cheetahs lock Lood de Jager will have something to say about that this weekend. Stormers flyhalf Robert du Preez (brother of the Sharks twins) had a stellar outing against the Bulls amassing 23 points on the back of a try, four penalties and three conversions. Given he is only 23 and played just two Super Rugby matches, it will be interesting to see how he settles into the role as the Stormers have struggled to settle on a ten for the past few seasons. For me, the Stormers are going to be far too classy for the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein, with their defensive system being their cornerstone of a double digit victory.

Predicted result: Stormers to win easily @ $1.40 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: Stormers -5.5 x 2-Units (vs Cheetahs) – 1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Sharks ($1.60) vs Jaguars ($2.35)

The final match of the weekend will see the Sharks battle the Jaguars at Kings Park on the waterfront in Durban. The Sharks secured an easy 43 – 8 win over the hapless Kings in round one, on the back of a strong second half display. The Jaguars also managed to win their first ever Super Rugby match, however, they were made to work by a tireless Cheetahs outfit in Bloemfontein.

Prediction: 

The Sharks looked a class above the Kings last weekend, but they will be up against an extremely formidable Jaguars team in Durban this weekend. The du Preez twins were strong for the Sharks in their debut matches last weekend in the back row and were well supported by Marcell Coetzee, a player who will have a bigger role to play for Springbok rugby moving forwards. It was also good to see Paul Jordaan back in the centres for the Sharks as well, a player whose young career has been curtailed by injury.
The Jaguars were lucky to come away with a victory against the Cheetahs after I legitimately gave them a chance of cracking the 50. There was an air of arrogance about their play and their ill-discipline wasn’t a good sign for one of the competition’s latest additions. In saying that, they did overturn a 21-point deficit to win, but they won’t want to be letting any of the top tier provinces run out to a lead of that margin or it will be an entirely different story. With no jet lag to account for, I feel the Jaguars will be more focussed this week and am happy to take the four points on offer as I think it will be a nail-biter.

Predicted result: Jaguars to win @ $2.35 – William Hill

Best Bet 3: Jaguares +4.5 (vs Sharks) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)