The final round of the regular season is upon us with a number of clashes this week playing a key role in shaping the playoff picture. So far, the Chiefs, Crusaders, Hurricanes and Highlanders have qualified for the quarterfinals from the New Zealand conference, with the Lions and the Stormers successful from the South African conference. The Waratahs and the Brumbies will fight it out for the playoff place from the Australian conference and the Sharks and the Bulls are jostling for the final wild card playoff spot in South Africa. The six who have already qualified will be playing for home field advantage, which has proved to be vital in Super Rugby. As has been the case over the past two seasons, the playoff picture won’t be decided until the final match of the regular season between the Jaguares and the Lions in Argentina.
From a betting standpoint, I managed to pick four out of five winners taking my tally to ten out of 11 over the past two rounds. With so many permutations at play this weekend, it should be a fascinating round of Super Rugby action and I will be up early on Sunday morning to watch how my 3-unit play pans out. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Jaguares to win by 13+ (3 units) (vs Lions) @ $7.50 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Will post more plays on twitter closer to kick-off
Blues ($1.64) vs Waratahs ($2.20)
On Friday afternoon, the Blues will welcome the Waratahs to Eden Park in Auckland, in a match that could define whether or not the Waratahs make the playoffs in 2016. Last weekend, the Blues played their part in assisting the Waratahs by belting the Brumbies in a comprehensive performance in Auckland. However, the Waratahs were beaten by Beauden Barrett and the Hurricanes (17-28) and as a result, their destiny isn’t in their own hands anymore to make the playoffs. Looking at the history between these two, the Blues have a dominant record against the Waratahs at home, winning nine of the ten matches played since the inception of the competition in 1996.
Blues: WLLDBWLWBWWLWLLW
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWWWWLWWL
Prediction:
The Waratahs need a bonus-point win in this match to give them a chance of topping the Australian conference and securing a playoff position. However, they will need to be extremely accurate when it comes to implementing their game plan because they can’t afford to get into a game of ‘sevens’ against the Blues. The Blues will be brimming with confidence and will be wanting to secure their 8th win of the season and finish above the .500 success rate. Looking at the squads, they are both fairly settled, however, the Tahs won’t be able to call upon giant winger Taqele Naiyaravoro after he was suspended last week. Although the Hurricanes exploited some key weaknesses last week particularly in the lineouts, I think there is enough class and big match temperament in the Waratahs camp to claim a rare win in Auckland and the Australian Conference. I also expect it to be a high-scoring game.
Predicted result: Waratahs to edge it @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
Reds ($1.72) vs Rebels ($2.15)
The Reds and the Rebels will be playing for pride on Friday night at Suncorp Stadium in what will be their final match of the year. The Reds have been woeful in 2016 having only won three matches and this was compounded last week with a 5-50 thrashing at the hands of the Chiefs. Overall, the Rebels have had a much stronger season than the Reds, but the way in which they were defeated by 59 points by the Crusaders last week in Christchurch, would’ve been extremely concerning for coach Tony McGahan.
Reds: LLLDLBWLLWLLWBLL
Rebels: WLWWLWBWLBLLWLL
Prediction:
The Reds have a dominant record over the Rebels winning eight of the 11 matches played, however, the Rebels were victorious by a score of 25-23 in Melbourne in round three. When you look at the Reds team, there is a clear lack of experience and class in the backline and with their forward pack tiring, the Rebels will look to catch them off-guard. Both teams will be hurting mentally and physically after last weekend’s drubbings, but I am finding it hard to get a read on how this match is going to play out. If I was forced to pick a result, I would side with the Rebels as they have a more settled halves pairing and some real excitement out wide.
Predicted result: Rebels to win @ $2.15 – Sportsbet
Sharks ($1.01) vs Sunwolves ($21.00)
The third and final match on Friday takes place at the Shark Tank in Durban, where the Sharks are playing for a wildcard playoff spot against the underperforming Sunwolves. Last weekend, the Sharks were fortunate to come away with the victory against the Cheetahs, whereas, the Sunwolves were easily dispatched by the Bulls in Pretoria. This will be the first match between the Sharks and the Sunwolves in Super Rugby.
Sharks: WWWDLBLLWLWWWBLW
Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWBWLDLLLL
Prediction:
The Sharks know that a bonus-point win over the Sunwolves will be enough for them to clinch a wildcard playoff spot. The Sharks have been good in patches this season, but they have failed to find the consistency that is required at this level of competition. With a number of injuries and with Pat Lambie still missing, Gary Gold has named a makeshift starting lineup. The Sunwolves have been an exciting team to watch this year, but mainly because of the fact that they have been involved in high-scoring matches. This tells me that they are more than adept on attack, but lack the defensive structure to hold teams out of their red zone. It doesn’t come as a surprise though given that they assembled as a team two weeks prior to the competition. They have definitely been a good addition to the format, but their depth issues have been exposed and the Sharks should be able to score a convincing win in Durban, and a playoff spot, which would see them travel to Australasia.
Predicted result: Sharks to win by 20 @ $1.01 – Luxbet
Crusaders ($1.53) vs Hurricanes ($2.50)
The first of two vital New Zealand conference derbies takes place at AMI Stadium in Christchurch, where the Crusaders host last year’s losing finalists, the Hurricanes. The Crusaders were excellent against the Rebels, notching up 85 points on the back of 13 tries, three of which were scored by Johnny McNicholl. The Hurricanes were also impressive beating an experienced Waratahs lineup 28-17 in their own back yard. This will be the first match between these two this year, but the Hurricanes have won five of the last seven matches played.
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBWLWWLW
Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLWBWWW
Prediction:
The Crusaders put together their best performance of the season last week, but let’s be realists and admit that the Rebels were extremely poor. The return of captain Kieran Read to the starting team strengthens the home team and Todd Blackadder will be able to all upon 11 All Blacks, ten of which are in the starting 15. The Hurricanes also have a strong pack that will look to fight fire with fire, with the two second rowers of Vaea Fifita and Michael Fatialofa two rising stars this season. Brad Shields, Ardie Savea and Victor Vito also form a well-balanced back row and whoever gets the upper hand at the set piece and at the breakdown, will go a long way to winning this match. Beauden Barrett has been on fire this year for the Canes, but with Julian Savea and Cory Jane still below their best form, along with an inexperienced centre pairing, they might find it challenging against the more-structured Crusaders. The home team will be out to make coach Todd Blackadder’s last season in charge a memorable one and I think that starts with a victory over the Hurricanes on Saturday, which would momentarily put them at the top of the ladder.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.53 – Sportsbet
Highlanders ($1.74) vs Chiefs ($2.10)
The second crucial match from the land of the long white cloud comes to us from the Forsyth-Barr Stadium in Dunedin, where the reigning champions host the high-flying Chiefs. The Highlanders were accurate in their 34-8 victory over the Jaguars last weekend, as were the Chiefs, when they demolished the Reds in Brisbane. The Highlanders have won the last four matches against the Chiefs, including a 26-13 win in week 11.
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWWWBLWW
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLBWLWW
Prediction:
By the time this match takes place, the Highlanders and Chiefs will also know what they have to do to get ahead of the Crusaders and/or the Hurricanes. Despite a strong start to the season, the Highlanders have been playing catchup over the last few rounds and due to what I believe is an unfair system, they have been disadvantaged. In saying that, they have put together two bonus-point wins over the Kings and the Jaguares over the last two rounds. Jamie Joseph has named a strong lineup for what will most likely be the Highlanders final home match of the season. Looking at the Chiefs, they coasted to an easy win in Brisbane, on the back of a solid win over the Crusaders in Fiji the week before. They currently top the New Zealand conference and their success has been built on a strong pack, a mobile back row and multiple play makers in the backline. Aaron Cruden has been in great form, as has Seta Tamanivalu, James Lowe and one of the player’s of the tournament in my view, Damien McKenzie.
Earlier this season I got stung picking the Chiefs to beat the Highlanders and I’ve learned my lesson. Even though the Chiefs do have a star-studded lineup, it is hard to pick against a team that has world class players in Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith. I feel they can get over the fatigue of travelling in recent weeks to show why they are the reigning champions and back-to-back contenders.
Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.74 – Sportsbet
Brumbies ($1.06) vs Western Force ($9.50)
The Brumbies will be looking to cement their place at the top of the Australian conference when they host the Western Force at the GIO Stadium in Canberra on Saturday night. The Brumbies are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Blues last Friday in Auckland and the Force didn’t fair much better against the Stormers in miserable conditions in Perth. The Force will also be wanting to end their five-match losing streak to the Brumbies, dating back to 2013.
Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLLWWBWWL
Western Force: LWLLLLLBLLWBLLLL
Prediction:
By the time the Brumbies kick off the Brumbies will know what they have to do to top the Australian conference. The home team started the competition so strongly, but a few key injuries (David Pocock, Joe Tomane etc.) have really robbed them of big match players and ones that can change the course of a game. They come up against a Force team that is struggling both on and off the field and the Brumbies have more than enough class in their ranks to win, even though I think it won’t be enough to secure a playoff spot.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win by 20 @ $1.06 – Sportsbet
Stormers ($1.01) vs Kings ($23.00)
The Stormers return home to Newlands Stadium in Cape Town to face the hapless Kings before they embark on their playoff aspirations next week. The Stormers have already locked up top position in the Africa 1 conference after beating the Force 22-3 last weekend in Perth. The Kings weren’t so good, even though they managed to score 21 points against the table-topping Lions. This will be the first match between the Stormers and the Kings in Super Rugby.
Stormers: WWLWWBWLWLDLWWW
Kings: LBLLLWLBLLLLLWLL
Prediction:
The Stormers have topped their conference and coupled with the fact that they are playing the Kings, who are currently tied with the Sunwolves for the wooden-spoon, there isn’t any pressure on them. As a result, Robbie Fleck has decided to rest his two enforcers, Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit. At the time of writing, the rest of the team wasn’t released.
The Kings are a battling franchise and one that I believe will be replaced in the coming seasons. They show a lot of courage and heart to perform against teams with seasoned Internationals amongst their ranks, but it doesn’t do them or their fans any favours. Despite fielding an understrength lineup, the Stormers won’t have any issues taking care of the Kings at the picturesque Newlands Stadium in Cape Town.
Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.01 – Sportsbet
Cheetahs ($2.75) vs Bulls ($1.45)
The Cheetahs host the Bulls on Saturday night at the Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein, with the visitors still in the hunt for a play-off position. The Cheetahs were unfortunate to lose to the Sharks last weekend, whereas the Bulls were much more clinical in their 50-3 trouncing of the Sunwolves. The Cheetahs will also be looking to avoid a season clean sweep to the Bulls, having gone down 18-23 in round six.
Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWLLLWBLWL
Bulls: LWBDWWWWWLLWLLW
Prediction:
The Bulls will know whether or not they can still make the playoffs by the time they run out in Bloemfontein. Given the fact that they are hoping that the Sharks will lose to the Sunwolves, it looks very unlikely. They have grown a lot this season and will continue to progress as a squad in the Currie Cup. However, they will need to improve their away form, especially given the fact the Loftus Versfeld isn’t the fortress that it used to be. Looking at the Cheetahs, they have surprised me this year with some of their results, especially given the fact that the more financially secure regions in South Africa poach a lot of their homegrown talent. They have performed well up front and will look to challenge the Bulls here, but when the referee blows his final whistle, both teams will crack open the beers after a long and arduous season.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.45 – Sportsbet
Jaguares ($1.23) vs Lions ($5.00)
The final match of the regular season takes place in Buenos Aires between the Jaguares and the table-topping Lions. The Jaguares were brought back to earth last week at the hands of the Highlanders at the Jose Amalfitani Stadium, going down four tries to one. The Lions were a lot more clinical against the Kings compiling 57 points on the back of a strong second half performance. The Jaguares will be looking to win back some pride after being thumped by the Lions 24-52 in week 13.
Jaguares: WLBLLLLLLWBLLLWL
Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWWWWW
Prediction:
The Jaguares have been disappointing this year, especially considering I had them as playoff hopefuls. They are a team that possess the majority of the Argentinian national team, but discipline and their over-eagerness to play an expansive game has cost them on a number of occasions this season. This week, they have the chance to beat the number one ranked team, albeit understrength, and this will be enough motivation for their final game. Surprisingly, Lions coach Johan Ackermann has left the majority of his ‘A’ team at home, including all of his Springboks (Marx (future), Redelinghuys, Mostert, Kriel, Whiteley (injured), de Klerk, Jantjies, Combrinck, Mapoe etc.). The Lions will need to win to secure a potential home final and in turn, more than likely play the Sharks. However, if they lose, which I think they will, they will face a New Zealand team, a much tougher prospect, even though it will be at home. It’s a strange decision, but a move that could prove to be the making of Johan Ackermann, even though he has had an exceptional season and done more than enough to restore some pride in the region. For me, I can’t see anything other than a comprehensive victory to the Jaguares, especially with good weather predicted.
Predicted result: Jaguares to win @ $1.23 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Jaguares to win by 13+ (3 units) (vs Lions) @ $7.50 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
