Super Rugby returned to TV screens around the world last weekend with a full complement of nine matches. Last weekend, the action headed to Suva in Fiji for the first time and unfortunately the weather didn’t come to the party in a game that saw the Chiefs ‘upset’ the table-topping Crusaders. The other game on Friday night saw the Brumbies outclass a young Reds outfit in Canberra. Saturday’s action saw the Waratahs and Hurricanes secure victories, before the Stormers trounced the Rebels in Melbourne, equaling the Tah’s on 57 with the highest points total of the round. The Cheetahs beat the Western Force by a solitary point in a classic match in Bloemfontein, the Lions rocketed to the top of the Super Rugby ladder with a big win over the Sharks and the Highlanders beat the Kings. The round finished with the Jaguares securing only their third win of the season with a win over the Bulls in Buenos Aires.
Round 16 is another full round of matches with the Blues and the Brumbies and the Waratahs vs Hurricanes two matches they will play an integral part in deciding the Australian and New Zealand conferences. From a betting standpoint, I had my best round of the year with six out of six bets winning. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Chiefs -7.5 Second Half Handicap (vs Reds) @ $1.89 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Chiefs -11.5 (vs Reds) @ $1.89 – Bet365
Best Bet 3: Total Lineout Steals O1.5 (Crusaders vs Rebels) @ $2.10 – Crownbet
Best Bet 4: Stormers -8.5 (vs Force) @ $1.9` – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 5: Highlanders –6.5 (vs Jaguares) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Blues ($2.15) vs Brumbies ($1.70)
Round 16 of Super Rugby kicks off at the spiritual home of rugby, Eden Park, where the Blues and the Brumbies face-off in Auckland. The Blues were gallant in 27-37 defeat last week to the Hurricanes. The Brumbies consolidated their place at the top of the Australian conference with a 43-24 win over the Reds in Canberra. The Brumbies will be looking for redemption in Auckland having lost to them last year 16 – 14 at Eden Park, a match where Ihaia West kicked the winning penalty with just three minutes left on the clock.
Blues: WLLDBWLWBWWLWLL
Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLLWWBWW
Prediction:
Given that the Blues are out of finals contention, the men from Auckland would love nothing more than to stifle the Brumbies run towards the playoffs. They have had a great season under new coach Tana Umaga and they have played some great rugby in patches. Players like Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Kara Pryor and Melani Nanai have been invaluable for the Blues in recent weeks and Jerome Kaino’s return to form, culminating in two tries last weekend has been a joy to watch. Coach Umaga has named an unchanged line-up for the match this week. The Brumbies were okay without being great last weekend against an underperforming Reds outfit and coach Stephen Larkham will be very cautious about this Friday’s match. Larkham has made just the two changes this week bringing in former Australian Sevens player Michael Wells (for the injured Ben Hyne) and Tomas Cubelli returns at scrumhalf in place of Joe Powell.
The Blues will look to attack the Brumbies forwards to create room for the likes of West, Nanai and co, but the Brumbies will have their own plan to get on top of the Blues’ engine room. It’s a difficult match to predict because the Blues do have the firepower to catch the Brumbies off-guard, but the Brumbies know that this is a must-win clash and will be doing everything to earn at least four points in Auckland. Even though the Brumbies are missing star flanker David Pocock and Joe Tomane, a player that I believe will give them better balance in the outside backs department, I think that they will depart Auckland victorious, but only just.
Predicted result: Brumbies to edge it @ $1.70 – William Hill
Reds ($5.00) vs Chiefs ($1.17)
The Reds return to Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane to face the Chiefs on Friday night. The Reds will be looking to bounce back after going down 24-43 to the Brumbies last week, whereas the Chiefs will look to continue their winning ways at the top of the New Zealand conference having defeated the Crusaders 23-13 in a gritty performance in Suva. The Chiefs beat the Reds at Suncorp Stadium last year, 24-3, in what was James Horwill’s and Will Genia’s last match for the Reds before heading to Europe.
Reds: LLLDLBWLLWLLWBL
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLBWLW
Prediction:
The Reds are well and truly out of the contention and have been since the early rounds of the competition. However, they could still play a part in determining the overall playoff picture. The Reds have showed that they have enough talent coming through the ranks, but their players are often poached before they can really provide any great benefit to the team. There are a number of players that the Reds organisation can build their squad around including Andrew Ready (hooker), Nick Frisby (halfback), Samu Kerevi (centre), but it remains to be seen whether or not they can keep them together in Brisbane.
Looking at the Chiefs, they will be confident after beating the Crusaders last week as they returned to the top of the New Zealand conference. Their injury list is incredible, but Dave Rennie still manages to put together a more than capable team each week. The forward pack has bene shuffled around this week with lock Brodie Retallick out and captain Sam Cane moves to number eight. Liam Messam, fresh off the news that he was cut from the New Zealand Sevens squad, finds himself on the bench and the aforementioned players will play a big role in creating a platform for the impressive Brad Weber and Aaron Cruden. Winger James Lowe has been in exceptional form this season and is always a good anytime try-scorer option.
Nothing other than a bonus-point win will be acceptable for the Chiefs this week, given that they can still finish the season with a home-final. They will be playing for those tries which could open the door for the Reds. The Reds usually have one good game against Kiwi opposition at Suncorp Stadium every season, I feel that they have already exhausted that card when they beat the Highlanders earlier on in the season. On a perfect winter’s night in Brisbane, I expect the Chiefs to win, with the bonus point in a high-scoring affair.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.17 – William Hill
Best Bet 1: Chiefs -7.5 Second Half Handicap (vs Reds) @ $1.89 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Chiefs -11.5 (vs Reds) @ $1.89 – Bet365
Lions ($1.01) vs Kings ($23.00)
The final match on Friday night takes place at Ellis Park in Johannesburg, where the Lions host the hapless Kings. The Lions put together a convincing performance against the toothless Sharks last weekend, where they beat the visitors 37 – 10 to top the Super Rugby log. The Kings also put up a good fight against the Highlanders last week, but a late flurry of tries saw the visitors win 48-18. This will be the return clash as the Lions demolished the Kings 45-10 in round nine.
Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWWWW
Kings: LBLLLWLBLLLLLWL
Prediction:
The Lions have a huge opportunity to cement themselves at the top of the table this week with a bonus-point victory over the Kings. In beating the Sharks last week, they secured a home quarter-final, but they will want to ensure that they get a home semi or even better, a home final. They play a team this week that has shown a lot of courage given their circumstances, but their depth (or their starting team) hasn’t cut it and caps have been handed out like beers at a rugby game. Lions coach Johan Ackermann has resisted resting his stalwarts this week and as a result, they should cruise to a comfortable victory in front of their home fans.
Predicted result: Lions to win by 30 @ $1.01 – Luxbet
Crusaders ($1.06) vs Rebels ($9.00)
The Crusaders welcome the Rebels to AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Saturday afternoon. The Crusaders relinquished their top of the New Zealand conference position after going down the Chiefs in Suva. The Rebels also struggled and couldn’t contain the powerful forwards of the Stormers, eventually losing 31-57 in a high-scoring match. Last year, the Rebels travelled to Christchurch and upset the Crusaders, 20-10, but the home team can ill-afford to have that happen again to them this time around.
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBWLWWL
Rebels: WLWWLWBWLBLLWL
Prediction:
The Crusaders had a hiccup last weekend and they’ll need to be better in Christchurch against a dogged Rebels outfit. After dropping points, they are in a position where they require five competition points. They will be looking to target a Rebels team that were completely outmuscled last week in the scrums and outsmarted in the lineouts. Unfortunately, for the visitors, this has always been one of the key strengths of Canterbury and Crusaders rugby.
Captain Kieran Read was always scheduled to be rested this match, but it will give Jimmy Tupou some game time at number eight ahead of the finals. The Rebels have been rocked with injuries after last weekend’s brutal encounter sees Lopeti Timani and Luke Jones unable to back up. Mike Harris returns to fullback and I feel that he will be a busy man as Crusaders will look to play the territory battle and poach lineouts where they can. The Crusaders need to head into next weekend’s final match against the Hurricanes heading in the right direction and I think they’ll do that, even though the margin might not be a blowout due to wet conditions.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win by 10 @ $1.06 – William Hill
Best Bet 3: Total Lineout Steals O1.5 (Crusaders vs Rebels) @ $2.10 – Crownbet
Waratahs ($1.77) vs Hurricanes ($2.08)
The match of the round comes to us from Allianz Stadium in Sydney where the Waratahs clash with the Hurricanes on Saturday night. The Waratahs are coming off a convincing 57-12 victory over the Sunwolves and the Hurricanes clawed back some vital competition points with their win over the Blues. The Waratahs are currently riding a two-game win streak over the Hurricanes and have won six of the last eight matches played.
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWWWWLWW
Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLWBWW
Prediction:
This is going to be a classic encounter. Both teams have strong packs, great playmakers and the ability to score tries quickly. They both also love to offload, so the ball is often kept alive and sequences of play are lengthy. Without going into it too much, it is a game that I will more than likely stay away from given both teams are in with a great shot. The Waratahs are at home and they have been building nicely over the last few rounds, as have the Hurricanes. This match is worthy of a quarter-final or a semi-final and I just feel that the Hurricanes will be better off, having experienced a heartbreaking finals lost last year – but it isn’t a play I’m overly confident about.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $2.08 – Luxbet
Force ($3.82) vs Stormers ($1.27)
The Western Force will play the Stormers in their final home match of the season on Saturday night. The Force put in a solid effort last weekend, only to fall short to the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein. Whereas, the Stormers produced one of their best attacking displays of the season, handing the Rebels their biggest loss in 2016. The Stormers hold a dominant record over the Force having won six of the seven matches played, including three of the four matches played in Perth.
Western Force: LWLLLLLBLLWBLLL
Stormers: WWLWWBWLWLDLWW
Prediction:
The return from injury for flyhalf Jono Lance was a huge confidence booster for the Force last week, as he does a good job of linking the forwards and the backs together. His game management is excellent and he offers more than your traditional kicking fly-half such as Force reserve, Peter Grant. Both he and Dane Haylett-Petty were superb for the Force last week and I expect them to have strong games in Perth this weekend. One thing the Stormers do have on the Cheetahs is the fact that their pack is a lot stronger, so the Force might not receive the quality of ball they require. Vincent Koch was solid up front last week, with Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit putting in exceptional performances in the second row. Their ability to pick apart their opposition’s line out is proving to be an important cog in the Stormers’ engine. With such dominance up front, rookie fly-half Jean Luc du Plessis had it on a platter accumulating 27 points (1 try, 5 conversions, 4 penalties) in Melbourne. With Damien de Allende slowly returning to the form he showed last year and Jaco Taute a safe option a fullback, the Stormers should be too strong for the Force in Perth.
Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.27 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Stormers -8.5 (vs Force) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Bulls ($1.01) vs Sunwolves ($19.00)
The Bulls will play their last match of the regular season at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria on Saturday night when they host the Sunwolves from Japan. The Bulls will be hurting after going down 11-29 to the Jaguares in atrocious conditions in Buenos Aires. The Sunwolves will also be looking to break their four game losing streak, but it might be a tough ask on the Highveld. This will be the first match in Super Rugby between the Bulls and Sunwolves.
Bulls: LWBDWWWWWLLWLL
Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWBWLDLLL
Prediction:
The Bulls are fighting for the wildcard spot that comes from the two African conferences. They are currently 3 competition points behind the Sharks, so nothing other than a bonus-point win at home will do. The Bulls appear to be on a slippery slope of late and the Sunwolves were completely outclassed last weekend in Tokyo. The Sunwolves don’t have a great record in South Africa and although the Bulls are understrength and under-performing, they should have too much power and pace out wide to get the much-need bonus point win in front of their home fans.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.01 – Sportsbet
Sharks ($1.27) vs Cheetahs ($3.80)
The Sharks will be looking to bounce back to the winner’s circle when they face the Cheetahs at Kings Park in Durban on Saturday night. The Sharks were poor last weekend in their defeat to the Lions, only managing to break the bagel late in the match. The Cheetahs had a lot more options in attack, but would’ve been very nervous letting a 17-point halftime lead slip, before prevailing by a solitary point, 30-29. This will be the only match between the Cheetahs and the Sharks this season, however, last year’s results saw both teams lose their home matches but secure victory on the road.
Sharks: WWWDLBLLWLWWWBL
Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWLLLWBLW
Prediction:
The Sharks were toothless last weekend against the Lions and now they face a tricky Cheetahs outfit that knows how to score points. The Sharks play their last two matches of the season at home and need to collect the competition points on offer against the Cheetahs and the Sunwolves. Interestingly, the team they are battling it out with for a playoff position, the Bulls, also play the same opposition over the next two weeks. The Cheetahs will be out to spoil the party and although they might give the Sharks a scare with their running game, the Sharks should be able to weather the storm, penetrate the Cheetahs defence and secure a confidence-boosting win in front of their home fans at the Shark Tank.
Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.27 – Sportsbet
Jaguares ($3.30) vs Highlanders ($1.34)
The final match of the round will once again take place at the Jose Amalfitani Stadium in Buenos Aires, where the Jaguares will clash with the reigning Champions, the Highlanders. The Jaguares secured only their third win of the season last weekend against the Bulls and they’ll be looking to knock the Highlanders off their perch, after the visitor’s strong win over the Kings in Port Elizabeth. This will be the first match in Super Rugby between the Jaguares and Highlanders.
Jaguares: WLBLLLLLLWBLLLW
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWWWBLW
Prediction:
In awful conditions, the Jaguares did a great job of nullifying the Bulls pack last week in Buenos Aires. Pretty much their whole team represented Argentina against France the week before, so it wasn’t surprising to see the Jaguares handle the drop in class. Hooker and captain Agustin Creevy is a great player and the heart and soul of Pumas rugby, especially as Juan Martin Fernandez-Lobbe starts to slow down. He managed two tries last week and was joined on the score sheet by Pablo Matera, a player who showed great promise when he burst onto the scene, but has had a quiet 2016. Jamie Joseph and the Highlanders have called in the cavalry this week with Elliott Dixon, Aaron Smith, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith all returning after their week off. The Highlanders are currently sitting three points of the pace in the New Zealand conference and a bonus-point win would be vital here. They have a whole lot more to play for and with superstars with level heads in key positions, I expect the Highlanders to win in another high-scoring match.
Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.34 – William Hill
Best Bet 5: Highlanders –6.5 (vs Jaguares) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
