Super Rugby returns after a month-long break for the International Test match series that took place between New Zealand and Wales, Australia and England and South Africa and Ireland. In the end, the All Blacks showed why they are a class above the rest of the rugby world, thumping the Welsh 46-6 in the final Test match in Dunedin. The Wallabies were also swept by a formidable England opponent for the first time since the 1970’s. In Port Elizabeth, the Springboks relied on a massive defensive effort late to subdue the fighting Irish and score a 2-1 series win in the process. Super Rugby fans will be in overdrive this weekend with nine matches completing the card. From a betting standpoint, things were a little rough towards the last few rounds of the Super Rugby, but keen to bounce back with some value on offer this weekend. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: Total Points Over 45.5 (Brumbies vs Reds) @ $1.91 – Bet365
Best Bet 1: Total Points Over 45.5 (Brumbies vs Reds) @ $1.91 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: Stormers to win (vs Rebels) @ $1.84 – Luxbet
Best Bet 3: Force +8.5 (vs Cheetahs) @ $1.9 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Lions -5.0 (vs Sharks) @ $1.90 – William Hill
Best Bet 5: Jaguares +1.5 (vs Bulls) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Futures Play: Any New Zealand team to win Super Rugby @ $2.35 (2-units) (Luxbet)

Additional plays and previews for remaining matches will be posted Friday PM

Chiefs ($2.15) vs Crusaders ($1.70)

The first match after the June break sees Super Rugby travel to Suva in Fiji for the first time where the Chiefs and the Crusaders clash in an important all New Zealand Conference bout. Overall, the Chiefs (5th) and the Crusaders (1st) both find themselves in the top six with the Chiefs just three competition points behind the leaders. This will be the second match of the season between these two with the Chiefs winning the first match in Christchurch 27-21, giving the Hamiltonians three successive wins over the Crusaders, and six wins from the last seven matches.

Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLBWL
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBWLWW

Prediction: 

The conditions will be stifling in Suva on Friday – a far cry from the single figures expected in Christchurch and Hamilton this weekend. Chiefs coach Dave Rennie has named a strong team and one that features the majority of the players that successfully defeated Wales two weeks ago in a midweek match. Openside flanker Sam Cane remains captain and fan favourite Stephen Donald has been preferred to Aaron Cruden (bench) at flyhalf. Fullback Damien McKenzie will be licking his lips to return to action having been involved in the All Blacks setup over the break, without receiving any game time. Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder has also named a powerful lineup, rushing in his All Blacks contingent for this all-important clash. There are nine players in the starting 15 with Test match experience, but it will be interesting to see how they fair after a tough three weeks against Wales. Winger Nemani Nadolo returns to action having not represented Fiji over the break, so he will want to repay his fans with a solid outing in Suva.

What is most impressive about the Chiefs is their offensive efficiency, their ability to score points and their depth. They have the biggest injury ward of any team in Super Rugby yet they still remain title contenders. After this match, the Chiefs face the Reds in Brisbane and the Highlanders in Dunedin. If they want to top the log, they’ll have to win all of their remaining matches (ideally with bonus points). With matches against the Rebels and the Hurricanes to come, by my calculations, the Crusaders require two bonus-point victories to seal the Minor Premiership. The Crusaders head into this matchup as favourites, but they’ll have to buck the trend of recent matches.  It’s a match I’ll stay away from, but I do expect points to accumulate pretty quickly. If I was forced to pick, I would side with the Crusaders, but they’ll have to contain the Chiefs centres, especially not having the services of Ryan Crotty to call upon.

Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.70 – William Hill

Brumbies ($1.14) vs Reds ($5.75)

The second match of week 15 rounds out Friday’s action when the ACT Brumbies and the Queensland Reds face off at GIO Stadium in Canberra. The Brumbies currently sit in fourth position overall with the Reds languishing ten positions back having only won three matches. In saying that, the home side is equal on points with the Waratahs placing extra importance on the outcome of this match. This will be their first and only clash of the season.

Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLLWWBW
Reds: LLLDLBWLLWLLWB

Prediction: 

The Brumbies need to win their three remaining matches to earn themselves a playoff spot and one would think they are in the box seat given they have the play the Reds, Blues (away) and Force. The loss of David Pocock is blow to the home team’s back row, especially given that they can’t call upon Jordan Smiler (injury) and Ita Vaea (retired). One of Brisbane City’s NRC stars, Ben Hyne has been selected at number eight, so it will be a baptism of fire against all of his old teammates. They have a solid backline with Matt Toomua and Christian Leali’ifano, who is due for a big game.

As a result of a number of injuries, Nick Stiles and Matt O’Connor have been forced to select three debutants for this match. Jack Tuttle, brother of Reds halfback James, has been selected at fullback, Taniela “Tongan Thor” Tupou has had a strong season at under-20 level and finds himself on the bench alongside Wallaby lock, Kane Douglas. They also can call upon back rower Leroy Houston who has returned from Bath in the UK. The pack looks strong, but the backline is green and the Brumbies have a huge opportunity to expose them, particularly out wide. The home side will be used to the mild conditions in Canberra and should have too much power for the lowly Reds.

Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.14 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: Total Points Over 45.5 @ $1.91 – Bet365 

Sunwolves ($11.00) vs Waratahs ($1.05)

The first of Saturday’s six matches takes place at the Prince Chichibu Stadium in Tokyo, where the Japanese Sunwolves host the Waratahs. The Sunwolves only have the one victory (and one draw) to their name in their inaugural season. After a slow start to the season, the Waratahs are starting to peak at the right time, winning five of their last six matches. This will be their first and only clash of the season.

Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWBWLDLL
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWWWWLW

Prediction: 

Despite not producing the results, the Sunwolves have played some good rugby this season. They often score some exceptional tries, but struggle to contain their opposition’s attacking threats. The Sunwolves have only won one of their home matches this season, which was a dogged victory over a disappointing Jaguares outfit. With the ‘Tahs hot on the heels of the Brumbies, they know that they can ill-afford to lose this match and coach Darryl Gibson will have them well prepared for whatever the Japanese will throw at them. The Waratahs superior backline should be too much for the Sunwolves with Taqele Naiyaravoro and Israel Folau, both solid FTS/ATS options. In the end, nothing other than a double-digit victory for the Waratahs will be acceptable and that’s what I expect the margin of victory to be.

Predicted result: Waratahs to win by 20 @ $1.05 – William Hill 

Hurricanes ($1.25) vs Blues ($4.00)

The Hurricanes and the Blues will face-off in another important New Zealand Conference matchup on Saturday afternoon at the Westpac Stadium in Wellington. Last year’s beaten finalists have won their last two matches, whereas, before the break, the Blues were beaten by the Crusaders. In week three, the Hurricanes were victorious against the Blues 23-19, a match that saw two controversial TMO decisions favour the Wellington-based outfit.

Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLWBW
Blues: WLLDBWLWBWWLWL

Prediction: 

Of the New Zealand teams, the Hurricanes have the toughest run home as they have to play the Blues in Wellington before travelling to face the Crusaders and the Waratahs. By virtue of being placed in the toughest conference, the Blues will be looking ahead to next season, although coach Tana Umaga has definitely received a pass mark in 2016, having won six games. The Blues are a dogged outfit and are often guilty of mixing brilliance with boredom. The Hurricanes welcome back a number of their All Blacks this week and that alone, coupled with the fact that they need to win will spur the home team to victory.

Predicted result: Hurricanes to win by 10 @ $1.25 – Sportsbet

Rebels ($2.00) vs Stormers ($1.84)

The Rebels will welcome the Stormers from Cape Town to AAMI Stadium in Melbourne on Saturday night. The Rebels season is hanging by a thread, but I am prepared to rule them out of finals contention now. After a strong start to the season, the Stormers were somewhat lackluster before the June International break. These two teams have played on three occasions, with the most recent outing seeing the Rebels victorious 30-21 in 2013.

Rebels: WLWWLWBWLBLLW
Stormers: WWLWWBWLWLDLW

Prediction: 

The Rebels will really look to trouble the Stormers at the breakdown, using the impressive Sean McMahon and Colby Fainga’a as the two on-ballers. There is a lot of X-factor in the backline, but Tony McGahan will need his pack to provide the platform to give Jack Debreczeni time and space, because he has shown this season that when going backwards, he goes missing. The Stormers are without two of their Sevens stars in captain Juan de Jong and Cheslin Kolbe, as well as not being able to call upon prop Frans Malherbe. They still have a formidable pack, with Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit and Schalk Burger likely to play the enforcer roles.

Traditionally, the Rebels have been a tough outfit at home as they play a game that wears the opposition down. To adopt that style of play, you need to have dominant forwards and this is where I feel the Stormers have the edge.
I don’t think it’ll be the best game of the weekend from an entertainment standpoint, but I feel the Rebels will get a taste of their own medicine.

Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.84 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: Stormers to win @ $1.84 – Luxbet

Cheetahs ($1.28) vs Force ($3.40)

The Cheetahs and the Force will battle it out at the Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein on Saturday night. Both teams will be playing for pride having only collectively secured five wins this season. The Cheetahs have won four of the seven matches played between these two overall, and they also won last year’s clash in Perth 24-15.

Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWLLLWBL
Western Force: LWLLLLLBLLWBLL

Prediction: 

This isn’t a match that I would suggest staying up for. Both teams are in trouble financially and struggle to lure top talent to their respective regions. I feel that the Cheetahs have been punching above their weight this season, but the fact that they are at home, playing against a team that traditionally doesn’t travel well, the Cheetahs are favourites. Jono Lance returns at flyhalf for the first time since the early rounds of the season and I expect him to make a big difference. Under a new interim coach, I expect the Force to fire and would consider taking the +8.5 handicap.

Predicted result: Cheetahs to win @ $1.28 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: Force +8.5 (vs Cheetahs) @ $1.9` – Sportsbet

Lions ($1.50) vs Sharks ($2.66)

The penultimate match of the round sees the Lions and the Sharks go head-to-head in a crucial Africa 2 conference matchup at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. The Lions have had a standout season, whereas the Sharks have been a little more hit-and-miss. Both teams head into this match riding three match win streaks and the Sharks really need to make up some ground in the Africa 2 conference.

Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWWW
Sharks: WWWDLBLLWLWWWB

Prediction: 

This is a classic South African-derby and one that will make for entertaining viewing. This would arguably be the Lions best year in Super Rugby history, but they will be without their inspirational skipper Warren Whiteley for the rest of the season after he damaged his shoulder representing the Springboks in their recent Test matches. He is the heart and soul of the Lions franchise, but the abrasive Jaco Kriel gets an opportunity after being selected by coach Ackermann as the stand-in captain. Willie le Roux is missing from the Sharks lineup after being suspended for one week his dangerous tackle on Tiernan O’Halloran in the third Test of the series against Ireland. Otherwise, the team selected by Gary Gold does have a good blend of youth and experience. Despite that, the Sharks don’t have the cohesiveness or the form compared to the Lions and despite missing a couple of players, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Lions win this by double-digits in front of their boisterous home fans.

Predicted result: Lions to win @ $1.50 – Sportsbet 

Best Bet 4: Lions -5.0 (vs Sharks) @ $1.90 – William Hill

Kings ($15.00) vs Highlanders ($1.01)

The Kings welcome the reigning Champion Highlanders to the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth on Saturday night. Before the break, the Kings secured only their second victory of the year with a strong performance over the Jaguares. The Highlanders weren’t so lucky having been beaten by the Hurricanes in a 2015 Grand Final rematch.

Kings: LBLLLWLBLLLLLW
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWWWBL

Prediction: 

In the Kings second season of Super Rugby, although they have won two matches (against the Jaguares and Sunwolves), they don’t have the financial backing or the talent to really cause the Highlanders too much trouble. This is reiterated by Highlanders coach Jamie Joseph deciding to leave both Aaron and Ben Smith at home, alongside Elliott Dixon after their heavy workloads for the All Blacks in recent weeks. Despite this, the visitors will be too strong in what should be another high-scoring match.

Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.01 – Luxbet 

Jaguares ($2.16) vs Bulls ($1.68)

The final match of round 15 sees the Jaguares and the Bulls clash at the Velez Sarsfield in Buenos Aires. The Jaguares head into this match in 15th position overall, but more importantly third in Africa 2 behind the Sharks and the Lions. On the other hand, the Bulls remain in the hunt in 10th position overall and only four points behind the Stormers in Africa 1. This will be the only matchup of the season between these two and the Jaguares have only managed the one home win against the Kings so far this season, while the Bulls have an away record of three wins and three losses.

Jaguares: WLBLLLLLLWBLLL
Bulls: LWBDWWWWWLLWL

Prediction: 

This is a match that I think the Jaguares can steal from the Blues. Many of the Jaguares players represented Argentina against France over the last two weeks, so they will be better for it. Additionally, Bulls coach Nollis Marais has opted to rest captain Adriaan Strauss and his fellow front rower, Trevor Nyakane after a heavy workload with the Springboks in their recent Test series. It won’t be a popular pick and the Jags have stung me on a couple of times this season, but if they can keep their discipline in check, they are in with a real shot to cause the upset.

Predicted result: Jaguares to win @ $2.16 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 5: Jaguares +1.5 (vs Bulls) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet