The final round of Super Rugby is upon us before we embark on a month of Test Match rugby. Three rounds plus the finals series will follow the International break in what has been a fascinating post-Rugby World Cup competition. Yes, the new teams have reduced the competition between teams, but the game is expanding into new regions and there is still enough talent on display to produce quality rugby. Last weekend, the Crusaders overpowered the Waratahs and the Reds, Chiefs and Blues experienced wins over the Sunwolves, Rebels and Western Force. The Lions were too strong for the Jaguares, the Sharks held a team scoreless for the first time this season in the Kings and the Bulls trumped the Stormers in a classic derby. Back to a profitable weekend on the betting front last weekend, let’s get stuck into the individual match previews and hopefully some more profit. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: Chiefs -3.0 (Waratahs) x 2-units @ $1.87 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) *Upgraded to 2-units – I would take anything up to -5.5
Best Bet 2: Jaguares -18.5 (Kings) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Crusaders -6.5 (Blues) x 3-units @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Hurricanes ($1.75) vs Highlanders ($2.08)

The Hurricanes and the Highlanders kick-off the final round of matches before the International Test match break at Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Friday afternoon. As a result of the bye last weekend, the Hurricanes have dropped to fourth place in the New Zealand conference, currently six points behind the Chiefs. The Highlanders are one point better off than the Hurricanes at this stage, setting up an intriguing battle this weekend.

Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLW
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWWW

Prediction:

The 2015 Final rematch is going to be an absolute cracker on Friday evening. Both teams look to be near full-strength and with valuable competition points up for grabs, this should be the match of the round. For the most part of the season, the Hurricanes have been dominant with ball-in-hand and have won the possession stakes on a number of occasions. The Highlanders like to feast on turnover ball, so the home team will need to be wary of where they squander possession and making sure they can shutdown the likes of Waisake Naholo, Patrick Osborne and Ben Smith at the back. Scores have been typically low over the past three encounters and I expect it to be the same again in Wellington, especially with rain expected around kick-off. The Hurricanes five returning stars have a point to prove after returning from an internal suspension and the Highlanders are starting to show the form that won them the Championship last year. I’m going to sit on the fence with this one, although a lot of people are giving the Hurricanes the edge due to home-field advantage. Being able to double your money on the reigning champs is value though, especially considering they have only lost three matches this season.

Predicted result: Too close to call

Waratahs ($2.25) vs Chiefs ($1.65)

The Waratahs host the Chiefs in what will be an important clash on Friday night at Allianz Stadium in Sydney. The Waratahs currently lead the Australian Conference despite losing to the Crusaders last weekend in Christchurch. The Chiefs easily disposed of the Rebels 36 – 15 in Hamilton and will be looking to cement their position at the top of the New Zealand conference in Sydney.

Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWWWWL
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLBW

Prediction: 

The Waratahs head into this matchup having only won three of their six matches at Allianz Stadium this season. Before their loss to the Crusaders, the Waratahs were on a solid run winning four matches in succession, but they were simply outclassed by the Crusaders last week. The pack has improved significantly since their poor early form with Michael Hooper making a strong case for inclusion in the Wallabies next week. Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley implement the game plan with Israel Folau used as the primary attacking threat and Rob Horne gets heavily involved on defensive duties.
The Chiefs head to Sydney coming off a strong win against the Rebels. Their loss to the Highlanders a couple of weeks ago was probably a blessing in disguise as it highlighted a lot of the things they need to work on. The Chiefs continue to lead the competition in terms of points/tries scored, but their defence needs to be tightened up, with matches against the Crusaders and the Highlanders to come. A lot of their attacking prowess is a direct result of newcomer Damien McKenzie, who doesn’t need an invitation to get involved dominating in carries, metres made and defenders beaten. The Chiefs have already travelled to Australia this year and dominated an in-form Brumbies outfit and although the margin probably won’t reach 25 this time, they should still be able to clinch this by double-digits.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.65 – William Hill

Best Bet 1: Chiefs -3.0 (Waratahs) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet 

*Upgraded to 2-units – I would take anything up to -5.5

Kings ($10.00) vs Jaguares ($1.05)

The Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth will be the venue for Friday night’s matchup between the struggling Kings and Jaguares. The Kings were embarrassed by the Sharks last weekend in Durban, being held scoreless while leaking 53 points. The Jaguares will also be disappointed with their result after going down 24 – 52 to a Lions team that was firing on all cylinders.

Kings: LBLLLWLBLLLLL
Jaguares: WLBLLLLLLWBLL

Prediction:

The Kings don’t deserve a spot in what was once a very prestigious competition. You can’t discount their effort or their courage, but at the end of the day, they aren’t up to what were once very high standards. Although the Jaguares have only won two of their 11 matches, they have huge potential and will be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come. Only a month ago, the Jaguares beat the Kings 73 – 27 in Buenos Aires. Although the visitors might not pummel them by that amount this weekend, I can still see them as comfortable winners, discipline-permitting.

Predicted result: Jaguares to win @ $1.05 – William Hill 

Best Bet 2: Jaguares -18.5 (Kings) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet 

Blues ($3.72) vs Crusaders ($1.27)

Saturday’s action kicks off with a classic New Zealand derby between the Blues and the Crusaders at Eden Park in Auckland. The Blues return home having kept their faint playoff hopes alive with a 17 – 14 victory over the Force in Perth last weekend. The Crusaders also bounced back with a comfortable 29 – 10 win over the Waratahs in Christchurch last weekend.

Blues: WLLDBWLWBWWLW
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBWLW

Prediction: 

The Blues have won four of their five matches played in Auckland this season, but the Crusaders are going to be their toughest challenge yet. In recent weeks, they have struggled past the Kings and the Force and got absolutely belted in a gutless display against the Lions in Johannesburg. Tana Umaga would already have a pass mark during his first season in charge, but there is still a lot of work to do to make Auckland the rugby powerhouse it once was. Akira and Rieko Ioane have been left out of the squad and it makes sense given their heavy workload at the London Sevens last weekend.

The Crusaders returned to winning ways last week and look quite formidable having won eight of their last nine. Interestingly though, the Crusaders have lost two of their three matches played against New Zealand opposition thus far. The forward pack speaks for itself and Todd Blackadder has unearthed a gem in Jordan Taufua over the past two seasons. He is the type of player you want in your team – fierce, powerful and he has a big motor. Flyhalf Richie Mounga currently leads the competition in terms of points scored with 126, which is impressive considering that it is his debut season. He has also scored five tries from six matches at AMI Stadium so far, so he is a good anytime try-scorer option. Israel Dagg has scored five tries in five matches since he came back from injury so he is also good value. The Crusaders have made 22 more line breaks (173) than any other team in the competition and they offload more than any of their opponents (15 per match).

I announced that this was my play of the season on twitter and even though Sam Whitelock has pulled out with injury, I am still very confident in this play. I would be incredibly surprised if the Blues came within 10 points of the visitors, especially with giant Crusaders winger, Nemani Nadolo returning after a three-game suspension.

Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.27 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: Crusaders -6.5 (Blues) @ $1.87 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)

Brumbies ($1.03) vs Sunwolves ($12.00)

The Brumbies return to GIO Stadium in Canberra on Saturday night to face the Japanese Sunwolves. They will be refreshed after tackling a five game block that saw them win three (Rebels/Waratahs/Bulls) and lose two (Crusaders/Highlanders). The Sunwolves played their first even match on Australian soil last week, going down 25 – 35 to the Reds at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.

Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLLWWB
Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWBWLDL

Prediction: 

This is a match that the Brumbies have to win. Coach Stephen Larkham has named all ten of the Brumbies players that were named in the Wallabies squad today. However, Ben Alexander, Tomas Cubelli have been given a rest. At the time of writing, the Sunwolves line up hasn’t been named, but although they will put in a spirited performance and probably score a classy try or two, the home team will have too much firepower and should cruise to a double-digit victory.

Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.03 – Sportsbet

Stormers ($1.22) vs Cheetahs ($4.00)

The first of two matches from the Republic comes to us from Newlands Stadium in Cape Town where the Stormers host the Cheetahs. The Stormers appear to have lost their mojo and don’t really look like title contenders anymore. This was reiterated with their 13 – 17 loss to the Bulls last weekend in Pretoria. The Cheetahs had the week off, but they will want to improve on their performance two weeks ago against the Kings, having only won 34 – 20.

Stormers: WWLWWBWLWLDL
Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWLLLW

Prediction: 

When looking at the stats from their match with the Bulls, the Stormers dominated all attacking stats including possession, metres made, breaks, carries etc. However, they lacked the creativity in the back line to trouble the home team and too be honest, I don’t think the result would’ve been much different against other sides in the top half of the draw. Pieter-Steph du Toit continues to be a shining light for the Stormers and he is sure to be one of the first names on Alastair Coetzee’s Springbok squad when it is named on Sunday. The Stormers are due to lose Juan de Jong and Cheslin Kolbe to the Olympic Sevens program shortly, which is a shame given that they, alongside Damien de Allende, have the ability to reinvigorate the Stormers backline. After this match, the Stormers travel to Perth and Melbourne before returning to Cape Town for the final match of the regular season, so it is a must-win.

The Cheetahs have been impressive in phases this season, particularly during some of their away matches. However, they don’t have the complete team to really trouble the more fancied squads. They consistently have their best players poached, some credit is due. In saying that, I can’t see an upset, even against an underperforming Stormers outfit.

Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.22 – Luxbet

Bulls ($1.72) vs Lions ($2.17)

The Bulls and the Lions will go head-to-head in the final match on Saturday at Loftus Versfeld in Pretoria. The Bulls returned to the top of their conference with a gritty 17 -13 win over the Stormers last weekend. The Lions were sublime once again, this time 28 points too strong for the Jaguares and as a result, they also find them perched at the top of their conference, two points ahead of the Sharks.

Bulls: LWBDWWWWWLLW
Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWW

Prediction: 

The Bulls have been impressive this season and are a couple years ahead of where I thought they would be, especially after another mass-exodus after last year’s Rugby World Cup. Under coach Nollis Marais, The Bulls continue to be the best defensive team in terms of tackle success (88.4%), but they are only ranked fourth-best in terms of points conceded in South Africa, which suggest to me that their scramble defence might need some work. They also have the strongest lineout in the competition and their young locks Jenkins and Snyman love poaching opposition ball. Last week, prop Marcel van der Merwe had a great day out against the Stormers, but he still remains one of the most penalised players in the game, so it will be a huge test against the Lions front row.

Looking at the Lions, they have beaten more defenders than anyone in the competition (302), with Elton Jantjies playing a key role in a number of these. Unfortunately for the away team, they won’t be able to call upon his services over the next three weeks due to a broken finger. His partnership with halfbacks Ross Cronje and Faf de Klerk who rotate has been top notch, so it will be interesting to see how his replacement can spark the back line this weekend. Alongside the Lions front row, Franco Mostert, Jaco Kriel, the halves, Lionel Mapoe, Courtnall Skosan and Ruan Combrink will all be pushing for Springbok selection in a couple weeks against the Irish. Mapoe now leads the competition with eight tries, followed closely by Skosan and Combrink on six. Akker van der Merwe has been a revelation at hooker and his short stature and low centre of gravity appears to be causing a number of players a great difficulty when it comes to tackling him.

This is a match that will have a mixed bag of big hits, lots of penalties and potentially a drop goal so look out for that market. The battle up front and at the breakdown is going to be immense.  For me, I’m still not completely convinced that the Bulls are the real deal this year and I think the Lions might just edge them to claim a rare win in Pretoria thanks to a piece of brilliance by one of their unheralded players.

Predicted result: Lions to win @ $2.17 – Sportsbet 

Rebels ($1.22) vs Western Force ($4.25)

Sunday Super Rugby returns to AAMI Park in Melbourne where the Rebels host the Western Force. The Rebels season looks all but over after going down to the Chiefs by 21-points last weekend in Hamilton. The Force lost their ninth match of the tournament last weekend at home to a Blues outfit that threw everything at them, but their lack of polish cost them once again.

Rebels: WLWWLWBWLBLL
Western Force: LWLLLLLBLLWBL

Prediction: 

This isn’t a match that is going to have any bearing on the playoff series, but it would be fair to say that the Rebels have certainly improved this season, whereas the Force have remained pegged towards the foot of the ladder. The Rebels are a couple of recruitments away from threatening the consistently good teams, whereas the Force need a new coach and a new roster. The loss of captain and workhorse Matt Hodgson is a big blow for the visitors, as he has made more tackles than any other player in the competition. Lock Adam Coleman is on the verge of a potential Wallabies call-up after some impressive performances in recent weeks, but that will be all Force fans can celebrate this season. The Rebels should win this one by more than two converted tries.

Predicted result: Rebels to win @ $1.22 – Sportsbet