Only five rounds remain (with a one month break in between) of the 2016 edition of Super Rugby. The New Zealand teams bar the Blues, continue to pave the way in this competition with only a few other teams showing glimpses of being title-contenders. Last weekend saw the Highlanders beat the Crusaders in a classic encounter in Dunedin before the Brumbies proved to be too good for the Rebels in Melbourne. Saturday’s action saw an understrength Hurricanes lineup beat the Reds, the Waratahs were too strong for the Bulls and the Stormers needed a late try to draw with the Sunwolves in Singapore. The Cheetahs beat the Kings in a scrappy game, the Lions were fantastic against the Blues in miserable conditions in Johannesburg and a late Patrick Lambie penalty proved to be the difference against an ill-disciplined Jaguares outfit in Buenos Aires. It was a poor weekend from a betting standpoint, so back to the drawing board and more analysis for this week’s plays. Let’s get stuck into the individual match previews and make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Sunwolves +17.5 (Reds) @ $1.92 – Luxbet
Best Bet 2: Blues -3.5 (Force) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Stormers +1.0 (Bulls) @ $1.86 – Sportsbet
Multi: Crusaders/Reds/Chiefs/Sharks/Lions @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Crusaders ($1.22) vs Waratahs ($4.30)
Round 13 kicks off in style at AMI Stadium in Christchurch where the Crusaders meet the Waratahs in a 2014 Final rematch. The Crusaders lost their first match since round one, going down to the Highlanders last Friday in Dunedin. The Waratahs kept their streak alive, winning their fourth in a row in beating the Bulls in Sydney. The last time these two teams played in 2014, the Waratahs ended an 11-game losing streak to the Crusaders.
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBWL
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWWWW
Prediction:
The Crusaders epic run of eight consecutive wins was ended last weekend in Dunedin to a well-structured and more determined Highlanders team. The visitors started strongly and after a few early decisions didn’t go their way, they were outwitted and outplayed by the Highlanders. Israel Dagg had another solid outing at fullback, but coach Todd Blackadder will be concerned at the way in which his backline leaked valuable points with a poor defensive showing. He has bolstered his centre channel by recalling All Black Ryan Crotty at inside centre.
After a solid month of four victories, the Waratahs now sit at the top of the Australian conference. The pack has showed the physicality that won them a Championship two years ago, but the loss of Kurtley Beale to a season-ending knee injury does rob them of one of their main strike weapons. Both packs are littered with International stars and the battle between both rows could well determine the outcome of this match (the Crusaders have the advantage here). Israel Dagg and Israel Folau are at the top of their games with one commanding the fullback position and the other outside centre. The Crusaders have won the last seven matches against the Waratahs and I can’t see that changing this weekend in Christchurch, with the fast-paced approach of the home team most likely to prove to be the difference.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win by 10 points @ $1.22 – William Hill
Reds ($1.13) vs Sunwolves ($6.05)
The Reds return to Suncorp Stadium on Saturday afternoon when they face the Sunwolves of Japan. The Reds were comfortably beaten by an understrength Hurricanes outfit in Wellington last weekend, whereas the Sunwolves came within second of an historic second win, before the Stormers forced a late draw in Singapore. This will be the first match between these two teams and with both teams having Japanese Internationals, there will be a lot of new faces in the Suncorp Stadium crowd.
Reds: LLLDLBWLLWLL
Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWBWLD
Prediction:
In a match that I will be going to, the 15th-placed Reds take on the 17th-placed Sunwolves. Collectively, they have only won three matches between themselves, and have secured a draw each, so it presents a rare opportunity to secure a confidence-boosting win this weekend. As you would expect, both the Reds and the Sunwolves have let in a number of points this year, but they have also really struggled to accumulate points on the scoreboard. The Reds successes, albeit only a few of them, have been underpinned by their strong scrum and a combination of outstanding play from rookie Andrew Ready, Hendrik Tui and Liam Gill. The backline has lacked punch since Samu Kerevi was injured and it just appears that they are running out of ideas under the guidance of Jake McIntyre. On the other hand, the Sunwolves have scored some scintillating tries, especially through Akihito Yamada, the competition’s leading try-scorer. Their set piece remains shaky, but they are a team that grafts and looks to frustrate their opposition, while flyhalf Tusi Pisi kicks penalties in the background. There is talk of a big crowd at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday afternoon and although I think the Reds will win by more than a try, a line of +17.5 to a team that just beat the Jaguares and drew with the Stormers looks tempting.
Predicted result: Reds to win @ $1.13 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Sunwolves +17.5 (Reds) @ $1.92 – Luxbet
Chiefs ($1.15) vs Rebels ($5.50)
The Chiefs return to action on Friday evening in Waikato where they face the Melbourne Rebels. Having had a week off to lick their wounds after a loss to the Highlanders, the Chiefs will be eager to keep the Rebels at bay this weekend. The Melbournians were beaten by the Brumbies last weekend in a performance their coach Tony McGahan wouldn’t have approved. The Chiefs will be out to avenge last year’s shock 15-16 loss to the Rebels in Melbourne.
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLB
Rebels: WLWWLWBWLBL
Prediction:
This is an important game for the Chiefs with big matches coming up against the Waratahs and the Crusaders over the next two weekends. The loss of Charlie Ngatai in the midfield to concussion is a blow, but for the most part this season, they have overcome adversity with a huge casualty ward. The inclusion of Anton Lienert-Brown isn’t a bad one either, with a big future ahead of the Christchurch-born youngster. Coach Dave Rennie has named a settled team with just the two changes, the other being Nathan Harris for Hika Elliott at hooker.
I said last week that the Rebels match with the Brumbies was going to be season-defining. They pushed the Brumbies hard, but in the end, they weren’t able to land the killer blow. I can’t see them making the playoffs from here as they currently sit almost two games back from the Brumbies. Coach Tony McGahan certainly won’t let his team give up, but the Chiefs have shown enough variation in their game plans this season to have too much for the tourists. The Chiefs have lost two games at home this season, but the fact that no Australian team has won in New Zealand this season only reaffirms how hard it is to win in New Zealand.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.15 – William Hill
Western Force ($2.29) vs Blues ($1.59)
The Western Force and the Blues will clash at nib Stadium in Perth on Saturday night. The Force had the bye last weekend, whereas the Blues were thrashed 43 – 5 in miserable conditions in Johannesburg. The Force have only beaten the Blues once in Super Rugby and the Blues have beaten them the other five times with one draw.
Western Force: LWLLLLLBLLWB
Blues: WLLDBWLWBWWL
Prediction:
The Force and the Blues is going to be another match that a lot of people give the flick. Both teams have been playing poor rugby this season and one would have to think that Michael Foley is breathing his last breaths as coach in Perth, whereas Blues coach Tana Umaga has a bit more leeway being his first season in charge. Pretty much since my first article, I have said that Force have a stable pack with an effective and industrious back row. There simply isn’t enough X-factor in the team or anyone with a real point of difference, be it speed, size or skill. It is good to see some homegrown players making it into the Super Rugby side, but you have to question the viability of the team over in the west or at least the recruitment strategy. The recruiters haven’t done the team any favours, which is unfortunate because they have some of the most loyal fans in the business.
Looking at the Blues, they were simply awful in Johannesburg. Sure the conditions were pretty ordinary to produce anything spectacular, but they just looked disinterested and the Lions looked unstoppable. Down 17 – 0 within ten minutes in those conditions is not acceptable and to let the score blow out to 5 – 43 must have Tana Umaga questioning the heart and application of his team. They are missing two of their most promising, if not most valuable players, but that is still no excuse for the rugby hub that is Auckland. I’m siding with the Blues after Tana Umaga would’ve had a stern word with a number of his squad, but most importantly the senior players for not standing up in Johannesburg. The Rebels have been poor against the spread this year and I expect an improved performance from the Blues and Melani Nanai is always a good ATS option for the Blues.
Predicted result: Blues to win @ $1.59 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Blues -3.5 (Force) @ $1.92 – Sportsbet
Lions ($1.20) vs Jaguares ($4.40)
The Lions and the Jaguares face off at Ellis Park in Johannesburg on Saturday night. The Lions were superb in their 43 – 5 win over the Blues in Johannesburg, whereas, the Jaguares were beaten in the final moments of their tight clash with the Sharks in Buenos Aires. This will be the first clash between these two teams in either Argentina or South Africa.
Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBW
Jaguares: WLBLLLLLLWBL
Prediction:
The Lions were simply spectacular last week against the Blues, but they needed to be having been hammered the week prior by the Hurricanes. The return of Julian Redelinghuys and Malcolm Marx in the front row was noticeable and Jaco Kriel was back to his devastating best in the number six jersey. Flyhalf Elton Jantjies had a blinder and Lionel Mapoe also strengthened his case for a recall to the national squad next month. The challenge Johan Ackermann has is building on last week’s victory and mentally and physically reinstalling that winning culture that has underpinned Lions rugby this season.
The Jaguares have only won two out of their ten matches to date in Super Rugby and once again the Jaguares find themselves in the news for the wrong reasons with captain Agustin Creevy suspended for one week and Leonardo Senatore handed a ten-week ban for biting. They have such a talented squad, but they are just failing to find that cohesive strength and balance that is needed to win matches in this competition. They travel back to South Africa this week for a match with the Lions, a team that has really come of age over the last two seasons. They definitely have the team to cause an upset in this match, but their disciplinary issues and lack of patience will more than likely cost them a win in Johannesburg.
Predicted result: Lions to win @ $1.20 – Sportsbet
Sharks ($1.02) vs Kings ($14.00)
The penultimate match of the round sees the Sharks up against the Kings at Ellis Park in Durban. Although tired, the Sharks have had two big wins in two weeks having beaten the Jaguares in the 80th minute last weekend in Buenos Aires. The Kings weren’t so lucky, but still brave in their 20 – 34 loss to the Cheetahs. This will be the second match between these two teams this season with the Sharks beating the Kings 43 – 8 in round one in Port Elizabeth.
Sharks: WWWDLBLWLWW
Kings: LBLLLWLBLLLL
Prediction:
The Sharks have circumnavigated the globe in recent weeks and in the process picked up valuable away wins over Highlanders and the Jaguares last weekend in Buenos Aires. They will be happy that they are back home for a stint of matches and what better way then to ease into things then to have a clash with the Kings. The Kings were gallant in defeat to the Cheetahs last week, but let’s face it, heart and passion isn’t going to win you too many games in Super Rugby.
Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.02 – William Hill
Bulls ($1.90) vs Stormers ($1.90)
The final match of the round is a classic South-African derby between the Bulls and the Stormers on the Highveld in Pretoria. The Bulls return home after a tough tour to Australia and they’ll face a Stormers team that put together their worst performance in some time, only managing a draw to the Sunwolves in Singapore. This will be the second match between these two teams this year, with the Stormers winning the first match 33 – 9 in Cape Town in round one.
Bulls: LWBDWWWWWLL
Stormers: WWLWWBWLWLD
Prediction:
It is going to be a big fortnight at Loftus Versfeld for the Bulls as they enter a make-or-break period. The Bulls are on a bit of a slide at the moment and they face a team that will be seething after a poor performance last week. Coach Nollis Marias has named a settled lineup, but their lack of a quality ten has been hampering them this season since Handre Pollard was injured.
The Stormers still remain the best defensive team in the competition, but their attack was so woeful last week, no one in Cape Town would truly believe they have what it takes to win this competition. The Bulls have also struggled with their attack in recent weeks only managing one try in their last 160 minutes against the Brumbies and the Waratahs. I have no doubt that the Stormers coaching staff would’ve review that footage and constructed a game plan around negating the sizeable Bulls pack and their Test-capped centres. The Stormers have the pack to match the Bulls and with Pieter Steph du Toit in scintillating form and Juan de Jong and Cheslin Kolbe with a point to prove ahead of their Olympic Sevens inclusion, the Stormers should win this match, but it wont be a blow out in either direction like the first match.
Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.90 – William Hill
Best Bet 3: Stormers +1.0 (Bulls) @ $1.86 – Sportsbet
