Three months into the Super Rugby season and with less than a month to go before the commencement of the International Test series (followed by two more rounds), things are starting to heat up. Last weekend’s round saw the Crusaders trounce the Reds, followed by the Brumbies bashing of the Bulls in Canberra. Saturday’s action kicked off in Tokyo where the Force recorded their first win since round 2 over the Sunwolves, the Highlanders ‘upset’ the Chiefs and the Waratahs were too strong for the Cheetahs. The Sharks bullied the Hurricanes into submission in Durban before the Blues cantered to a win over the Southern Kings in Port Elizabeth. As a result, the Crusaders and the Brumbies now lead their respective conferences on points differential, with the Stormers remaining the top of Africa 1 and the Lions still hold a narrow lead over the Sharks in Africa 2. There could be a shakeup this weekend with the Crusaders playing the Highlanders and the Rebels hosting the Brumbies on Friday night. Last weekend, three of my four best bets cashed for a nice profit and I am looking forward to a great set of matches this weekend. My rough multi ($4.25) came off as well, so you’ll find another one below. Let’s get stuck into the individual match previews and make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Crusaders to win (Highlanders) @ $1.92 – Luxbet
Best Bet 2: Hurricanes -17.5 (Reds) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Waratahs -6.5 (Bulls) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 4: Stormers -21.5 (Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Rough Multi: Crusaders 1-12/Brumbies 1-12/Sharks 1-12 @ $19.00 – Sportsbet
Highlanders ($1.92) vs Crusaders ($1.92)
Round 12 of Super Rugby kicks off in Dunedin on Friday afternoon with an absolute cracker between the Highlanders and Crusaders at Forsyth-Barr Stadium. Both teams will be brimming with confidence having knocked off the Chiefs (26 – 13) and the Reds (38 – 5) last weekend. As a result, the Crusaders find themselves in first place on the log, with the Highlanders only 5 points behind. This will be the only regular season matchup between these two, but it is important to note that last year in Christchurch, the Highlanders broke a six-match losing streak to the Crusaders.
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWW
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBW
Prediction:
The match of the round will be an absolutely blockbuster when two title hopefuls clash under the roof in Dunedin. After a pour opening match of the season, the Highlanders went on a five match win streak, only to be brought back to earth with two losses, one of which was to the Reds. Since then, they have defeated the Brumbies and the Chiefs, two teams with squads good enough to win the competition. Last year’s success helped developed a number of players, especially in the pack and with three world class players (Aaron Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Ben Smith) in the back line, the Highlanders have all the ingredients to go back-to-back. Winger Waisake Naholo returned from injury last week and proved to be the difference in Dunedin. His powerful running and thirst for action is almost unmatched in New Zealand and that one performance was good enough to have played himself into an All Blacks jersey.
The Crusaders head into this matchup in a rich vein of form. Eight wins on the trot doesn’t come along very often in Super Rugby and they will be ready to rip into the reigning Champions in their own backyard this weekend. The Crusaders have one of the best forward packs in the competition, as they can interchange Test match players on a weekly basis. In the backs, the loss of winger Nemani Nadolo (suspension) would hamper any team, but Israel Dagg and Jone Macilai (three tries) in particular, shouldered a lot of the burden of playing without the world’s most dangerous back last weekend. Richie Mounga has been a revelation in the flyhalf jersey and centres David Havili (keeping Ryan Crotty on the bench) and Kieron Fonotia have really controlled the midfield.
This is a really tough match to predict, but the Crusaders more momentum, they have the stronger pack and back row and this should be enough to suppress the Highlanders dangerous backs.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win a nail-biter @ $1.92 – Luxbet
Best Bet 1: Crusaders to win (Highlanders) @ $1.92 – Luxbet
Rebels ($2.45) vs Brumbies ($1.57)
The Rebels host the Brumbies on Friday night in Melbourne in what promises to be an interesting Friday the 13th clash at AAMI Park. The Rebels had their enforced bye last weekend, but their 6-point loss to the Blues at Eden Park, could well be a big blow to their playoff chances this season. The Brumbies produced one of their better performances in recent weeks with a 23 – 6 win over a big Bulls team. The Rebels and the Brumbies clash only once this season, but the Rebels were victorious in the last match played, 13 – 8 in Canberra last season.
Rebels: WLWWLWBWLB
Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLLW
Prediction:
The next two clashes against the Brumbies and the Chiefs could well be season-defining matches for the Rebels. Coach Tony McGahan would’ve spent extra hours over the last two weeks working on their defence after leaking so many points against the Blues. He has recalled three experienced heads in Colby Fainga’a, Lopeti Timani and Mike Harris to the starting team, alongside Reece Hodge who moves to inside centre, after an impressive first year of Super Rugby. This will be the fifth match the Rebels have played in Melbourne this season and they have only won two matches against the lowly Reds and Cheetahs, so there will need to be a massive improvement on Friday.
The Brumbies were exposed by the New Zealand teams in recent weeks, but they got things back on track against the Bulls last weekend. The Rebels won’t have the physicality of the Bulls, but their organisation and attitude will be something that the Brumbies will have to counter. The clash of the back rows and in particular the matchup between Sean McMahon and David Pocock will have Wallabies coach Michael Cheika watching on with great interest. The Brumbies backline is weaker without Matt Toomua and with Aidan Toua not exactly a safe option at fullback in my eyes, the Rebels may be able to shock the visitors. The Brumbies have a bye next week and really need to start securing themselves some bonus points given how tight the Australian conference is shaping up to be. Coach Stephen Larkham will have them primed for this match and after naming an unchanged match-day 23, I think they will just pip the Rebels, but I wouldn’t put my money on it any of the lines with any great certainty.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.57 – Luxbet
Hurricanes ($1.18) vs Reds ($4.90)
Saturday’s action kicks off at Westpac Stadium in Wellington where the Hurricanes host the Reds. The Hurricanes head home from South Africa having beaten the Lions, but last weekend they were torn apart by the Sharks, 32 – 15. The Reds didn’t fare much better losing to the Crusaders by 33, with their attacking woes the most notable issue currently at the club. The Hurricanes have won 12 of the last 14 matches played against the Reds, which includes a six-match winning streak at home dating back to 1998.
Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWWWL
Reds: LLLDLBWLLWL
Prediction:
The Hurricanes return home this week and with five players not selected due to disciplinary issue last week in South Africa, the playing field is slightly more level. The Hurricanes showed signs of their round one loss to the Brumbies where they were physically dominated in Durban and the Sharks a number of turnovers, clearly costing the ‘Canes a number of points. The Reds were always going to be up against it in 2016, with injuries, a sacked coach and a lack of experience, particularly in the backs making it hard for them. I’m not taking anything away from the Crusaders defence last weekend in Christchurch because it was top-notch, but the Reds simply had nothing on attack and usually that’s not something that you can fix overnight. Once they get to three or four phases, they kick aimlessly and so the Hurricanes outside backs could be seeing a lot of ball. The Hurricanes should still have too much in the tank for the Reds, but I can’t see it being a blowout.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.18 – William Hill
Best Bet 2: Hurricanes -17.5 (Reds) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Note: I wouldn’t back the -17.5 now, but that is the danger of nominating plays early in the week.
Waratahs ($1.40) vs Bulls ($2.95)
For the second week in a row, the Waratahs will play at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, this time against Bulls from Pretoria. The Waratahs were victorious against the Cheetahs last Saturday in a dour match that saw flyhalf Bernard Foley collect 16 points. The Bulls were brought back down to earth and lost their first match since round one having been comprehensively outplayed by the Brumbies in Canberra. In 2014, the Waratahs ended an eight-match skid to the Bulls with a 19 – 12 regular season win in Sydney, which was the last time these two teams played.
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWWW
Bulls: LWBDWWWWWL
Prediction:
The Waratahs have now secured three straight wins (Force, Stormers and Cheetahs) for the first time this season. The forward pack seems to have tidied up their set piece and coach Darryl Gibson has unearthed a solid prospect up front in Tom Robertson. Will Skelton is starting to make more of an impact and Michael Hooper is playing some good rugby again. Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley are doing what is asked of them in the halves and Israel Folau has been a revelation at outside centre scoring in each of his last four games. Gibson would’ve been most pleased about the fact the Waratahs didn’t concede a try last week and by the way that the Bulls played against the Brumbies, they should be confident heading into this match. Although the Bulls have only lost two games this season, they have had an easy run to date. This is a crucial match for them with some tough games coming up against the Stormers and the Lions, mostly likely to decide whether they are going to finish at the top of their conference this season. It’s the final week of the Bulls overseas tour and with a few questionable omissions (Trevor Nyakane and Arno Botha), the Waratahs should be able to pull away in the final twenty to win by ten points or more.
Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.40 – William Hill
Best Bet 3: Waratahs -6.5 (Bulls) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Sunwolves ($14.00) vs Stormers ($1.02)
Super Rugby ventures to Singapore for the third time this season when the Sunwolves host the Stormers at the Singapore National Stadium. The Sunwolves were comfortably beaten last week by the Force, another team that has had a below-average season. The Stormers had the week off, but they will want to put in a good performance this weekend having been beaten by the Waratahs in Cape Town two weeks ago.
Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWBWL
Stormers: WWLWWBWLWL
Prediction:
The Sunwolves were outclassed last weekend in Tokyo to the lowly Western Force, so it is clear that they will be up against it this weekend. Captain Shota Horie and winger Akihito Yamada are the Japanese team’s shining lights, along with South African-import Riaan Viljoen, who chews up the running and kicking metres. They have had to endure a lot of travel and the National Stadium in Singapore is a far cry from the Prince Chichibu Stadium in Tokyo. The Stormers will be disappointed having lost to the Waratahs two weeks ago and will be set on kicking off their overseas tour on a positive note in Singapore. They’ll dominate the set pieces, their defence will be too strong and the front foot ball that they generate will give the likes of Damien de Allende and Sevens flyers Juan de Jong and Cheslin Kolbe too much front foot ball to not capitalise on.
Predicted result: Stormers to win comfortably @ $1.02 – William Hill
Best Bet 4: Stormers -21.5 (Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Cheetahs ($1.03) vs Kings ($12.00)
The Cheetahs and the Kings will clash at Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein on Saturday night in what promises to be a pretty open matchup. In week 11, the Cheetahs couldn’t match it with the Waratahs (6 – 21) and although the Kings were spirited and gutsy, they were still beaten 18 – 34 by the Blues. The last time the Kings were in the competition in the 2013 season, the Cheetahs recorded comfortably victories by 14 and 12 points respectively.
Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWLLL
Kings: LBLLLWLBLLL
Prediction:
Not only will this match fail to draw much of a crowd in Bloemfontein, very few viewers will tune in late on Saturday night. Both teams play with a lot of spirit and despite their weak squads, they have the ability to score some decent tries. The Cheetahs will enjoy playing back at home and they will have too much for a Kings outfit, who have lost their two best back rowers in CJ Velleman and Chris Kloete. Nonetheless, it will be high-scoring match so look at the total points/tries markets, with Torsten van Jaarsveld (hooker) and captain Francois Venter (centre) both solid anytime try-scoring options.
Predicted result: Cheetahs to win @ $1.03 – Sportsbet
Lions ($1.43) vs Blues ($2.75)
The penultimate match of the round sees the Lions host the Blues at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. The Lions need to return to the winner’s circle this weekend having been thumped by the Hurricanes before their bye last weekend. The Blues will also look escape South Africa with two valuable wins on Saturday having beaten the Kings in Port Elizabeth. The Lions will take confidence out of the fact that they have won both of these matches over the last two seasons, one in Johannesburg (39 – 36) and one in New Zealand (13 – 10).
Lions: WWLWBLWWWLB
Blues: WLLDBWLWBWW
Prediction:
The Lions are in a mid-season lull, but coach Johan Ackermann will have used the week off to give his players some time away from the game before settling in for a big training week ahead of this clash. This is a crucial match for the home team against one of the ‘weaker’ teams and I think they would find it tough with the Sharks and the Jaguares starting to improve in their conference. Yes, the Blues beat the Kings, but they didn’t do it with much verve or class. Many teams before them have put the Kings to sleep by much bigger margins and the loss of Rieko Ioane in the backline and his brother Akira in the forward pack, has clearly robbed them of some impetus. The Blues will pose some problems for the Lions, but the home team should be able to get the points on the back of a revitalised scrum and an improved performance from the halves pairing of Ross Cronje and Elton Jantjies.
Predicted result: Lions to win @ $1.43 – Sportsbet
Jaguares ($1.97) vs Sharks ($1.86)
The final match of round twelve takes place at the Jose Amalfitani Stadium in Buenos Aires between the Jaguares and Sharks. The Jaguares will be refreshed after their bye and will looking to get stuck into a jet-lagged Sharks outfit, but the visitors are coming off an impressive 32 – 15 win over the Hurricanes last weekend in Durban. This will be the first fixture between these two teams and the forward clash up front should be monumental in front of a hostile crowd.
Sharks: WWWDLBLWLW
Jaguares: WLBLLLLLLWB
Prediction:
This is going to be a really interesting match in Buenos Aires. Both teams have strong packs and players that can cause some havoc in the backline. I really enjoy the way the Jaguares play, even if it is a bit reckless and loose at times. Despite their talented roster, the Jaguares have looked a bit overwhelmed during the first half of the season and their moments of ill-discipline have cost them on numerous occasions.
The Sharks secured a confidence-boosting win over the Hurricanes last weekend in Durban having just arrived back home from New Zealand, and now they find themselves on the other side of the world to face the Jaguares. Captain Tendai ‘Beast’ Mtawarira has been improving as a leader and credit must go to Stephan Lewies and the du Preez twins for their abrasive nature and physical dominance. Garth April has been a sound choice at flyhalf in Patrick Lambie’s absence, but the latter looked in fine rhythm towards the backend of last week’s match. Additionally, JP Pietersen turned back the clock with two tries and a complete defensive performance, something he has been criticized for in recent weeks.
At the time of writing, the teams haven’t been released, however, the Jaguares have been on the wrong end of most outcomes this season and the Sharks might just have a bit too much structure for the hosts, especially if they can dig deep and overcome their horrendous flying itinerary.
Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.86 – Luxbet
