Another week of Super Rugby down and the Kiwis continue to dominate, while the South Africans and Australians continue to jostle for second-best. The Test match window is just around the corner, but there are still four rounds where teams can cement themselves in the playoff picture or at least position themselves within striking distance. For others, it will be a chance to experiment with some of their youngsters and new combinations with their sights set on next season. Last weekend, the Chiefs (vs Sharks) and the Bulls (vs Force) won on Friday night, as did the Blues (vs Rebels), Highlanders (vs Brumbies) and Reds (vs Cheetahs) on Saturday. The two matches from the Republic saw the Hurricanes embarrass the Lions and the Waratahs beat the Stormers in Cape Town. The weekend was capped off with an absolutely flogging, when then Jaguares went to town on the Kings in Buenos Aires. Another successful round of betting last weekend and I’m confident on my plays below. Let’s get stuck into the individual match previews and make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: Brumbies -5.5 (Bulls) @ $1.87 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Western Force -2.5 (Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Waratahs -13.5 (Cheetahs) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 4: Hurricanes ML (Sharks) @ $1.78 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Rough Multi: Crusaders 13+/Brumbies ML/Force ML/Waratahs ML/Blues 13+ @ $4.35 – William Hill
Crusaders ($1.88) vs Reds ($8.00)
Round 11 of Super Rugby action kicks off at AMI Stadium in Christchurch, where the Crusaders host the Queensland Reds on Friday afternoon. The Crusaders are currently riding a six-match winning streak and will be well-rested after their enforced bye last weekend. The Reds returned to the winner’s circle with a fairly ugly 30 – 17 win over the Cheetahs at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The Crusaders have won the last four matches against the Reds and the last 8 in Christchurch dating back to 2001.
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWB
Reds: LLLDLBWLLW
Prediction:
The Crusaders are one of the form teams of the competition thus far and have made more clean breaks than any other team in the competition, but they will be without Nemani Nadolo (suspension), who has been one of the competition most effective players on attack this season. What makes them so dangerous, is their ability to offload, as they average a competition-best of 15 per game. Todd Blackadder seems to have found the right combinations in his final season in charge and the fact that they are also the most effective tackling team, making 87.6% of their hits, makes them a difficult proposition for any opponent. Israel Dagg has been in great form since his return from injury and I see him, Jone Macilai and Jonny McNicholl causing the Reds some problems in broken field play. Blackadder has named five All Blacks on his bench so one would expect a second-half onslaught by the home team.
Looking at the Reds, they secured their second victory of the season last week, but the loss of Samu Kerevi really compounds their attacking woes. The Reds have only scored 19 tries from their 9 outings so far this season, which is the worst record in the competition. On a positive note for the Reds, their scrum continues to be their strongpoint (1st), but the Crusaders aren’t too far behind them (3rd), so scrum time is going to be a massive tussle in Christchurch. The Crusaders have a strong record at home against the Reds and I can’t see that changing this weekend. The Reds will grind away early on but the Crusaders should easily be able to put 30-40 points on the Reds.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win by double-digits @ $1.08 – William Hill
Brumbies ($1.48) vs Bulls (2.70)
The Brumbies return to Canberra on Friday night when they face the Bulls from Pretoria. Last weekend in Invercargill, the Brumbies couldn’t match the Highlanders, going down to the reigning champions by a score line of 10 – 23. On the other hand, the Bulls put together a solid performance with a 42 – 20 win over the Force in Perth. The Bulls did beat the Brumbies in their last outing in Pretoria in 2014, but they haven’t tasted success at GIO Stadium in Canberra since 2007.
Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLL
Bulls: LWBDWWWWW
Prediction:
The Brumbies currently sit in second place in the Australian Conference. Their off-field issues have been well documented in recent weeks and CEO Michael Jones has finally been let go. With that behind them, I expect the squad to galvanise this week and improve on their recent performances. They had the bulk of possession and territory against the Highlanders last weekend, but the failed to capitalise on that advantage like they did earlier on in the season. With Stephen Moore back in the lineup and David Pocock at openside flanker, the Brumbies have the forwards to disrupt what has been a very stable Bulls pack. I do give them the edge in the backs, however, the loss of Matt Toomua to injury is a bit concerning and will challenge their depth.
The Bulls can claim top spot in Africa 1 with a win over the Brumbies, as the Stormers are sitting out this weekend on their bye. They are a youthful side with experience in key positions. They have had the luxury of facing a number of the lower-ranked sides in the tournament so far, so chilly Canberra will be a whole new kettle of fish. Jan Serfontein and Jesse Kriel have been solid in the centres and the experienced head (more so at Currie Cup level) of Francois Brummer at ten, has allowed them to control the majority of their games so far. With that being said, the Brumbies have a lot more class in their lineup than the Force do and they will be looking for a good performance against the Bulls to kick start the second half of their season and potentially reclaim top spot in the Australian Conference with a win. Adding to that, the Bulls win last week was their first win overseas for three seasons. Two in a row should be a stretch for this team.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.48 – Luxbet
Best Bet 1: Brumbies -5.5 (Bulls) @ $1.87 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Sunwolves ($2.40) vs Force ($1.57)
Saturday’s Super Rugby action kicks off at the Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium in Tokyo, where the battling Sunwolves and Force face-off. The Sunwolves will be well rested after a six-game stretch, however, their last match did see them beat the Jaguares for their first competition victory. Last Friday, the Force failed to show any real resolve or fight in their loss to the Bulls.
Sunwolves: LBLLLLLLWB
Western Force: LWLLLLLBLL
Prediction:
The Sunwolves finally got the monkey off their back with a win over the Jaguares two weeks ago. With that being said, it is important that they continue to improve to help grow the game in Japan. Shota Horie has been an inspirational skipper and Samoan International Tusi Pisi has done all that has been asked of him in the number ten jumper. You can clearly see Eddie Jones’ influence on a number of the players, as they play a very tactical game.
Looking at the Force, they have been ordinary all season and coach Michael Foley’s days are numbered. The Force have the worst tacking percentage of any team in the competition (81.4%) and have scored less points than anyone else as well. This will be the first contest between the Sunwolves and the Western Force in Super Rugby. If the Force are going to win any more games this season, it will be this one. They have the pack to cause the Sunwolves some problems, but the inside backs will need to find a way to give the likes of Brache, Morahan and Haylett-Petty some good ball to work with. Brynard Stander, Matt Hodgson and Ben McCalman are a solid back row trio and the Sunwolves are going to find it hard to cope at the breakdown, especially given that the Western Force backs have secured a number of pilfers this season as well. I see this being a very high-scoring game and I think the visitors can catch the locals off guard to win by a try. On paper, the Force have a stronger bench as well.
Predicted result: Force to win @ $1.57 – William Hill
Best Bet 2: Western Force -2.5 (Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Chiefs ($1.47) vs Highlanders ($2.70)
The match of the round takes place at Waikato Stadium in Hamilton where the Chiefs host the Highlanders on Saturday evening. The Chiefs are riding a seven-game win streak, but it would be fair to say that they escaped with a win last weekend against the Sharks. The Highlanders returned to winning ways after breaking a three-game losing streak to the Brumbies with a 23 – 10 win in Invercargill. The Chiefs will be looking for redemption this weekend having lost both matches to the Highlanders last season.
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWW
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLW
Prediction:
This will be the first of two matches played between these provinces in the regular season and it will have a huge bearing on overall positions at the end of the season. A defeat here for the Chiefs, could open up the door for the Crusaders (vs Reds) or the Hurricanes (vs Sharks) to take top spot. The Chiefs have been special so far this season and they have done so with the biggest casualty ward of any team in the competition. Their standout players have been Mitchell Graham (prop), Brodie Retallick (lock), Michael Leitch (back row), Brad Weber (halfback), Aaron Cruden (flyhalf), Seta Tamanivalu (centre) and fullback Damien McKenzie.
The Highlanders had a purple patch through the early rounds of the competition, but losses to the Reds and the Sharks in recent weeks have really stifled their momentum. The Highlanders defended resolutely against the Brumbies last week and they capitalised on what little ball that they had scoring two tries to standouts Lima Sopoaga and Ben Smith. They have a number of withdrawals this week through injury, namely Shane Christie and Liam Squire, but the return of winger Waisake Naholo from a broken leg is a boost for any rugby fan that likes watching a player who attacks the line hard. The Chiefs have a more potent attack than the Brumbies do, but their ability to grind out a win against the Sharks last week when the going got tough, was most impressive. They have the edge in a number of key positions and at home, the Chiefs should secure their eighth win in a row, albeit by a narrow margin.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.47 – William Hill
Waratahs ($1.15) vs Cheetahs ($5.50)
The Waratahs and the Cheetahs will go head-to-head at Allianz Stadium in Sydney on Saturday night. The Waratahs will be buoyed by their 32 – 30 win over the Stormers in Cape Town last weekend, but I must admit I thought the Stormers red-card was a bit unnecessary. The Cheetahs were brave in the first half against the Reds in Brisbane, but in the end they just didn’t have enough in the tank. Last year in Bloemfontein, the Waratahs romped to a 58 – 33 victory in this corresponding fixture.
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLWW
Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWLL
Prediction:
After two strong wins, the Waratahs find themselves within striking distance of the top of the Australia conference. Coach Darryl Gibson doesn’t seem to think the last two performances were out of the ordinary, but one must say that Israel Folau is looking extremely dangerous at outside centre. With Kurtley Beale inside of him and the fact that they are now playing behind a scrum that can more often than not, hold their own, the Waratahs are sitting in a nice spot. They have a settled lineup and the combinations are starting to gel more so than they were at the beginning of the season.
The Cheetahs have always been a lot of fans’ second team. They play a great brand of rugby, but unfortunately for them, their defence suffers as a result. There aren’t many household names (if any) in the Cheetahs lineup, but lock Lood de Jager, South Africa’s best International player, and the guy that looks like the kid from ‘two and a half men’, has some serious talent. The potential return of captain Francois Venter, another player who might find himself in the Springbok setup this year, will be a boost for the visitors, but it’s not going to be enough against a team that feels the need to repay their fans after a few poor outings at home this season.
Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.15 – William Hill
Best Bet 3: Waratahs -13.5 (Cheetahs) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Sharks ($2.25) vs Hurricanes ($1.65)
Kings Park in Durban will play host to a crucial match between the Sharks and the Hurricanes on Saturday night. The Sharks tour of New Zealand yielded one win and two tight losses, but they will be looking forward to getting back in front of their home fans this weekend. The Hurricanes were the most impressive team in round 10, racking up 50 points against South Africa’s best team, the Lions in Johannesburg. The Sharks will be looking to get one back over the Hurricanes after going down 24 – 32 last year in Wellington.
Sharks: WWWDLBLWL
Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWWW
Prediction:
The Hurricanes are starting to show some real promise this season, especially after their annihilation of the Lions last weekend. Coach Chris Boyd seems to have struck a nice balance between youth and experience and they are now starting to play with confidence, a real danger sign for the rest of the competition. The Hurricanes pack were put under pressure by media in New Zealand, but they have responded with some strong performances that have led to seven straight wins. Statistically speaking, the Hurricanes also have the best lineout in the competition, winning 93.3% of their throws. This has allowed TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett to manipulate the defences in front of them using their power runners out wide.
The Sharks lost two of their matches in New Zealand, but all by very small margins. They have an ability to not get blown out, but they will find welcome relief playing at Kings Park this weekend. Cobus Reinach has been ruled out for the rest of the season, but the return of Pat Lambie on the bench couldn’t have been timelier. When they are down on the scoreboard, they start to play a more attacking brand and they often look quite threatening. Willie le Roux needs to get the ball in his hands some more and I’m surprised they haven’t considered playing him more often at ten from the outset. The Sharks are also dealing with a big injury count at present, but that is par for the course in this competition. The Hurricanes form has been too hard to ignore over the past few weeks and with the Sharks having to travel all the way from New Zealand, the ‘Canes running game should catch the home team short of breath in Durban.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.65 – William Hill
Best Bet 4: Hurricanes ML (Sharks) @ $1.78 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
I would take the line as it stands now and anything up to -4.5
Kings ($12.00) vs Blues ($1.03)
The final match of the round sees the struggling Kings face the travelling Blues at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth. The Kings were embarrassed last weekend in Buenos Aires (27 – 73), but the Blues managed a confidence-boosting 36 – 30 win over the well-structured Rebels in Auckland. This will be the first contest between the Kings and the Blues in Super Rugby.
Kings: LBLLLWLBLL
Blues: WLLDBWLWBW
Prediction:
Kings games are full of points and it will be no different in Port Elizabeth this weekend. Both teams will be battling the effects of crossing multiple time zones and given the fact that the match is played on the coast, their will be no altitudinal advantage like there is in Johannesburg and Pretoria. The loss of Akira and Rieko Ioane to the New Zealand Sevens program does rob this match of star quality, but in the end, and like I’ve said before, the Kings have no chance.
Predicted result: Blues to win comfortably @ $1.03 – William Hill
