We are now halfway through the Super Rugby season and at this stage a pretty clear playoff picture is being painted. New Zealand teams have been dominant, South African teams look to be improving, whereas, the Australian teams look to be spread far too thin. The Chiefs lead the competition and their conference, narrowly over the Crusaders and both teams have been playing some exhilarating rugby so far this season. The Rebels find themselves atop of the Australian conference, the Stormers lead Africa 1 and the Lions are in front in Africa 2. Last weekend saw the Sharks end the Highlanders eight-match home winning streak, courtesy of a nasty red card by Jason Emery early on in the match. The Rebels returned to winning ways at home over the Cheetahs, the Sunwolves secured their first ever win in this competition, before the Chiefs and the Hurricanes fought out an absolutely classic, with the former winning by just a solitary point. The Waratahs turned back the clock with a strong win over the Force, the Stormers were too strong for the Reds, the Lions dominated the Kings and the Crusaders announced themselves as title contenders with a strong win in Canberra. Let’s get stuck into the individual match previews and make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.

Best Bet 1: Chiefs -12.5 (Sharks) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Highlanders -4.5 (Brumbies) @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Reds -5.5 (Cheetahs) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Hurricanes +2.5 (Lions) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Chiefs ($1.18) vs Sharks ($5.00)

Round 10 of Super Rugby kicks off at Yarrow Stadium in New Plymouth on Friday afternoon when the Chiefs host the Sharks. Last weekend in Wellington, the Chiefs edged the Hurricanes 28 – 27 in one of the best games of Super Rugby I have ever watched. The Sharks also battled their way to a one-point victory over the Highlanders, courtesy of a reckless and early red card to the home team’s Jason Emery. The Chiefs and the Sharks have played each other on 20 occasions, with the series currently squared at 10 wins apiece. Last year the Sharks won 11 – 10 in Durban, to break a five-game losing skid to the Hamiltonians.

Chiefs: WLWWWWWBW
Sharks: WWWDLBLLL

Prediction: 

The Chiefs were handed a lifeline last week, once by the TMO and secondly by a dropped ball on fulltime that would’ve seen them go down in Wellington. In saying that, luck is a big thing in rugby and the bounce of the ball seems to be going the Chiefs way at the moment. Even without Lowe and Ngatai in the backline, the Chiefs were still dangerous against a powerful Hurricanes outfit. The Sharks have been strong defensively, but they showed last week that their attack is really struggling. They will be without Cobus Reinach and Philip van der Walt this week and I expect Seta Tamanivlu to pose JP Pietersen some problems at outside centre. The Chiefs are the best attacking team in the competition and they have the armour to crack the Sharks’ defensive systems, as they have done with most teams before them this season. The third week on tour is always the toughest and with their sights set on returning home, coupled with their injury count, this could be a long afternoon for the Sharks.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win by double-digits @ $1.18 – Luxbet

Best Bet 1: Chiefs -12.5 (Sharks) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) 

Force ($2.90) vs Bulls (1.42)

The second match on Friday takes place at NIB Stadium in Perth where the struggling Force welcome the Bulls fro Pretoria. The Force’s season went from bad to worse last weekend in Perth, when they were demolished 13 – 49 by the Waratahs, a team they usually compete very well against. The Bulls will be well-rested and jetlag won’t play as much a part in this match given that they had the bye last weekend. They will be looking to achieve five wins a row for the first time in a number of seasons. The Bulls won this corresponding fixture last year (25 – 24), however, the Force have won the last two matches played at home.

Western Force: LWLLLLLBL
Bulls: LWBDWWWW

Prediction: 

The Force are currently sitting in second-last with only one victory against the Reds in Brisbane in round two. The men from Perth have the worst attacking efficiency with only 123 points from eight matches, averaging just 15 points per game. They were robbed early on in the season of their first-choice flyhalf in Jono Lance and with Peter Grant injured this week, reserve scrumhalf Ian Prior has been given the nod in the ten jersey. The pack has been doing an adequate job in defence and at the breakdown, but their backline has failed to create any real threats on attack for their opposition.

Some might find it surprising, but the Bulls haven’t lost since round one (Stormers) and have drawn one match with the Sharks in round 4. There are enough experienced heads in the squad to guide the youngsters and so far they have found a game plan that is working for them. The Bulls have a tough run of matches ahead of them and this is a match that they would’ve identified as a must win game prior to the commencement of the season. If the Bulls can nullify the industrious back row of the Western Force and not give away too many scrum penalties through Marcel van der Merwe, they should be able to win this one by a try or more.

Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.42 – William Hill

Highlanders ($1.42) vs Brumbies ($2.90)

Saturday’s action kicks off at Rugby Stadium in Invercargill, the closest stadium on earth to the South Pole, as the reigning Champion Highlanders take on the Brumbies. The Highlanders find themselves in a spot of bother having lost their previous two matches (Reds and Sharks). The loss to the Sharks last week was gutsy given the fact that they didn’t concede a try despite playing the majority of the match with 14 men. The Brumbies also have issues of their own having lost two of their last three matches, with last weekend’s 14 – 40 loss to the Crusaders, their worst ever home defeat. The Brumbies have a dominant record over the Highlanders having won seven of the last eight fixtures, including the two of the last three in New Zealand.

Highlanders: LWWWWWLBL
Brumbies: WWWLWLBWL

Prediction:

This really is a must-win game for both teams as the Highlanders have lost their 2015 mojo and the Brumbies have struggled in recent weeks after a really strong start to the season. The Highlanders have named a strong team for this clash and the Brumbies welcome back David Pocock, a player who has so much impact both on and off the field for the Brumbies. In saying that, they will be without Stephen Moore (should be back next week) and Joe Tomane (out for up to two months), their two best players so far this season Invercargill isn’t the nicest of places to play rugby in the world and I expect the Highlanders to use the cold conditions to their advantage to beat the Brumbies.

Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.42 – William Hill 

Best Bet 2: Highlanders -4.5 (Brumbies) @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play)

Blues ($1.38) vs Rebels ($3.05)

Super Rugby returns to Eden Park on Saturday afternoon when the Blues host the Rebels in Auckland. The Blues are coming off their bye after beating the Sharks (23 – 18) in a hard-fought match the weekend before. The Rebels now sit atop the Australian conference after their 36 – 14 win over the Cheetahs in Melbourne last weekend. Of the four matches played between these two, the teams have alternated victories with the Rebels winners last year in Melbourne by a score of 42 – 22.

Blues: WLLDBWLW
Rebels: WLWWLWBW

Prediction: 

The Blues have lost their razzle-dazzle and the X-factor that they were once synonymous for. Tana Umaga has done a good job in his first year in charge, but they have lost their attacking potency that used the send shivers down their opposition’s spines. They have only managed to score 15 tries in seven matches and they have also lost Rene Ranger to injury and are due to lose Akira and Rieko Ioane to Sevens duties shortly. In an interesting stat pointed out by the NZ Herald, the Australian Conference-leading Rebels head to Auckland to face New Zealand’s worst team, the Blues, and the home team is $1.38 favourites. If the Blues want to salvage anything out of this season, they need to win this match with a trip to South Africa commencing on Sunday. The Rebels structures will be hard to break down, but I think the Blues have what it takes to edge it in a high-scoring match.

Predicted result: Blues to win @ $1.38 – William Hill

Reds ($1.50) vs Cheetahs ($2.55)

Suncorp Stadium and the Queensland Reds will play host the travelling Cheetahs on Saturday night in what promises to be an interesting matchup between two of the lower-ranked teams. The Reds return home to Queensland after two losses in South Africa to the Bulls (22 – 40) and the Stormers (22 – 41) last weekend in Cape Town. The match against the Stormers was almost a carbon copy of the week before, where the Reds looked capable of securing a win, before fading heavily in the final stanza of the match. The Cheetahs were brought back down to earth in Melbourne last weekend at the hands of the Rebels. They started strongly, but the home team had too much in the tank and ended up winning by a score line of 36 – 14. The Cheetahs have never beaten the Reds in Brisbane (from four attempts) and the Reds have won five of the last six matches played.

Reds: LLLDLBWLL
Cheetahs: LLWLLLBWL

Prediction: 

The Reds return home after two tough matches against the Bulls and the Stormers. They will be jet-lagged and come up against a Cheetahs team that only had a three-hour flight to make from Melbourne. Last week I spoke about how the Reds have looked to be more solidified since the departure of Richard Graham. They are starting to play really well in patches, but have died in the final 20 minutes of both of their last two matches. There are five players with Test match experience in the pack and along with a functioning scrum, this should put them in good stead to combat the attacking nature of the Cheetahs. The backline remains stable with Samu Kerevi and league-convert Eto Nabuli starting to find their feet at this level.

Looking at the Cheetahs, they have lit up the competition in stages this year, most notably the 75-point victory over the Sunwolves, but when you boil it down, they only have two victories against the Japanese team. The other teams they have played have managed to nullify their unheralded pack and starve their outside backs of any open space. More often than not, the Reds are a better team at home and I expect the crowd to swing the result in their favour by around 10 points.

Predicted result: Reds to win @ $1.50 – Sportsbet 

Best Bet 3: Reds -5.5 (Cheetahs) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet

Lions ($1.70) vs Hurricanes ($2.16)

The match of the round takes place at Ellis Park in Johannesburg when the high-flying Lions take on the high-octane Hurricanes on Saturday night. As was always going to be the case, the Lions were far too strong for the Kings (45 – 10), on the back of a strong, four-try second half performance. The Hurricanes were unlucky in their one-point loss to the Chiefs last weekend, but for the most part, they will still be happy with how they played. They came within a whisker of scoring a try in injury time but Jason Woodward dropped the ball with the try line in sight. The Hurricanes have won 11 of the last 12 matches played against the Lions, including a 22 – 8 victory last year at this venue.

Lions: WWLWBLWWW
Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWW

Prediction: 

The Lions have been exceptional this season and find themselves sitting atop of South African rugby at present. Their pack has been the cornerstone to their success this season, but in recent weeks they have lost Malcom Marx, Ruan Dreyer and Julian Redelinghuys in the front row. These are the unheralded players that Johan Ackermann owes a lot of his success to. Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies continue to press their claims for a Springboks jersey against Ireland in just over a month, so it will be interesting to see how they come up against their All Black opponents (TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett). The Hurricanes looked strong last weekend against the Chiefs and only a dropped ball proved to be the difference in toppling the tournament’s top side. The pack has been scrutinised this season, but they are starting to click at set piece time and at the breakdown. Dane Coles has been monstrous (good anytime try-scorer option), as has Ardie Savea, a player who has turned down the New Zealand Sevens Olympic opportunity to focus on the 15-man code. The impetus created by not only these players, but the rest of the pack has given the likes of TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett front-foot ball to unleash the power outside of them. The Hurricanes are a strong team on the road and I think their attack might just have a bit too much for the home side this weekend.

Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $2.16 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 4: Hurricanes +2.5 (Lions) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Stormers ($1.45) vs Waratahs ($2.75)

The Waratahs have crossed the Indian Ocean and find themselves in Cape Town on Saturday night when they take on the Stormers. Last weekend, the Stormers were forced to come from behind against the Reds, before kicking into gear in the second half to secure a 41 – 22 win over the visitors. The Waratahs ended a three-match losing streak to the Western Force with a bonus-point 49 – 13 demolition of the Force in Perth. Last year, the Stormers recorded their first victory in Sydney since 2007, overcoming the ‘Tahs, 32 – 18.

Stormers: WWLWWBWLW
Waratahs: WLBLWLBLW

Prediction: 

The Stormers have been ticking away this season without setting the world on fire. In saying that, they still remain at the top of their conference and are in a good position to secure a playoff position. There are a number of youngsters in the squad who are starting to put their names forward as players of the future including flyhalves Jean Luc du Preez and Brandon Thomson. The pack continues to set the platform and flankers Sikhumbuzo Notshe and Siya Kolisi have impressed in recent outings. The Stormers enjoy playing at Newlands and haven’t lost at home this year with wins over the Bulls, Sharks, Brumbies, Sunwolves and Reds.

The Waratahs turned back the clock last weekend and played the way they did win they won the Championship in 2014. Their defence was strong, their passes stuck and their big name players stood up, but let’s not get carried away, the Force were ordinary. Tours to Africa can either go one of two ways. They can expose any vulnerabilities or weaknesses within the playing group or they can galvanise the team. The Waratahs still have eight games to go, whereas the majority of the other teams only have seven. The Stormers are on a bit of a roll at the moment and although the ‘Tahs looked a whole lot better last week, I think they are more likely to win their match against the Cheetahs next weekend.

Predicted result: Stormers to win by single figures @ $1.45 – William Hill 

Jaguares ($1.03) vs Kings ($12.50)

The final match of the round sees the Jaguares host the Kings at the Estadio Velez Sarsfield on Sunday morning, Australian time. The Jaguares return home looking for their second win of the season after narrowly going down 28 – 36 to the Sunwolves in a cracking game in Tokyo. The Kings were once again on the wrong end of a drubbing at the hands of the South Africa Conference-topping Lions. This will be the first matchup between these two teams in Super Rugby.

Jaguares: WLBLLLLLL
Kings: LBLLLWLBL

Prediction: 

Both of these teams have been involved in some exciting matches this year, but both have only really had a chance against the Sunwolves (Kings won, Jaguares lost). The Jaguares are a team that will grow into this competition over the next few years, although I had them as playoff hopefuls this season. In ten years time (even though I think the competition will look a whole lot different), I still wouldn’t put money on the Kings making the playoffs. Argentina is a hostile place to play rugby and many teams have come unstuck there in the past. The Chiefs relied on a late Brad Weber try earlier this season to escape with the win. The Jaguares have cost me this season and they have been given a big handicap (currently stands at -25.5), but I would be more in favour of taking the overs in the total points market.

Predicted result: Jaguares to win by double-digits @ $1.03 – Sportsbet