The long wait is finally over as Super Rugby returns this weekend with a full complement of matches scheduled for round one. Over the next six months, the biggest, fastest, most skilful and exciting rugby players on the planet will compete for glory in what is arguably the toughest and most competitive provincial rugby competition. All four conferences (New Zealand, Australia, Africa 1 and Africa 2) will be intense with some historical and fierce rivalries underpinning many fixtures, but the teams that have the most depth and cope the best with inopportune injuries and pressure often prevail. The competition is wide open this year as we begin a new four-year cycle towards the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. Numerous bone crunching hits, breathtaking tries, sublime skillsets and more often than not, enthralling rugby awaits us, so sit back, relax and enjoy the season. Let’s get the weekly preview started by having a look at the nine round one matches and hopefully, I can get the season started with a bang with my suggested bets below. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and I look forward to your company throughout the duration of the competition.

Friday Plays:  

Best Bet 1: Highlanders ML (vs Blues) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) 

Best Bet 2: Jaguars -2.5 (vs Cheetahs) x2 Units @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play) 

Saturday Plays:  

Best Bet 3: Lions -9.5 (vs Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play) 

Best Bet 4: Rebels ML (vs Force) @ $2.20 – William Hill (early twitter play) 

Best Bet 5: Sharks -9.5 (vs Kings) @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play)

Note: Saturday’s match previews will be released on Thursday or Friday night depending final team announcements.

Blues ($1.94) vs Highlanders ($1.85) 

The Super Rugby 2016 season kicks off in Auckland on Friday afternoon when last year’s Champions, the Highlanders make the trip north to face the Blues at Eden Park. The Blues have a new coach in Tana Umaga and will be looking to improve after only wining three matches last season. The Highlanders have recruited well in the off-season and haven’t lost as many players as the other franchises. Since 2012, the Highlanders have beaten the Blues six out of eight times, including a 44 – 7 thumping last year at the same venue.

Prediction: 

The Blues are a young and exciting team, but their consistency has plagued them in recent years. They have a squad that has a number of points in them, but defensively they have failed to work in unison for a couple of seasons. The loss of Jerome Kaino to suspension for a pre-season brain explosion can’t be underestimated, but Steven Luatua and their rising star in Akira Ioane (off the bench) will be a handful for the visitors. The Highlanders now have a target on their back and their biggest challenge will be to avoid the ‘second year syndrome’ that has crippled so many teams before them. If the Highlanders pack can withstand the size of the Blues, Aaron Smith and Lima Sopoaga should be able to control the match and unleash the likes of Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Patrick Osborne and Ben smith for a win in Auckland.

Predicted result:  Highlanders to win an open encounter @ $1.90 – Sportsbet 

Best Bet 1: Highlanders ML (vs Blues) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play) 

Brumbies ($1.50) vs Hurricanes ($2.60) 

The Brumbies open their 2016 account at GIO Stadium in Canberra on Friday night when they face last year’s Minor Premiers and eventual finalists, the Hurricanes. Both teams head into this season as title contenders with a number of world class players in both teams. Looking at the history between these two franchises, the Hurricanes have won five straight, including their 29-9 victory in last year’s first semi-final.

Prediction:  

Canberra is one of the most dreaded away venues for any team in this competition, but it might benefit the Hurricanes travelling there early on in the season. The Brumbies have had a settled pre-season with one win (Reds) and one loss (Waratahs), but they have strength across the board from 1 to 23. The Hurricanes haven’t had the best preseason results and their biggest challenges will be around coping with the losses of Ben Franks and Jeremy Thrush in the engine room and the world-record centre partnership of Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith. It is one of the harder matches of the round to pick, but I am leaning towards a narrow Brumbies victory, however, it’s never safe going against a team with a backline with players like TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea and Nehe Milner-Skudder.

Predicted result:  Brumbies to win narrowly @ $1.50 – Sportsbet 

Note: $2.60 is great value or the Hurricanes  

Cheetahs ($2.65) vs Jaguars ($1.48) 

The first Super Rugby match from the Republic this season will see the Cheetahs host tournament newcomers, the Jaguars at Free State Stadium in Bloemfontein on Friday night.

Prediction:  

I don’t see a bright season ahead for the Cheetahs this year after another huge exodus of players. The star of the side is lock Lood de Jager, a player who announced himself on the International scene last season. The Cheetahs have a workmanlike pack with an average backline and although they are capable of scoring tries, they will more than likely let in a lot more. I wouldn’t read too much into their two preseason wins against an understrength Bulls outfit and the woeful Kings. This will be the Jaguars first match in the competition and I expect them to make a statement. Jet lag won’t be a factor as the Argentinians have been in South Africa for a couple of weeks and their demolition of the Lions last weekend showed how much of an impact their pack will have on this competition. Combine that with efficient playmakers and their exciting outside backs suggest that a win by double digits against the Cheetahs is well and truly on the cards. I will also be having a play on 13+.

Predicted result:  Jaguars to win @ $1.48 – Sportsbet 

Best Bet 2: Jaguars -2.5 (vs Cheetahs) x2 Units @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play) 

Sunwolves ($5.00) vs Lions ($1.18)

The first of Saturday’s six Super Rugby matches sees newcomers, the Japanese Sunwolves clash with the Lions of Johannesburg at the Prince Chichibu Rugby Ground in Tokyo.

Prediction: 

Only on Monday evening did the Sunwolves finalise their squad for the season ahead. This reiterates the poor planning that has been deeply rooted in this franchise since they were announced as one of the new teams in Super Rugby’s expanded format. Compound that with the fact that the Sunwolves have only had two weeks of preseason, their Coach Mark Hammett’s mother passing away (so he might not be present at the game) and their inability to lure any top class talent to Tokyo – things aren’t looking pretty in Tokyo. The Lions have been performing strongly over the past two Currie Cup seasons and also made an impact on last year’s Super Rugby competition. Their biggest strength has always been their set piece and in particular their scrum, and I don’t see that being any different this year. Warren Whitely will lead the team and look for players like himself, Jaco Kriel and flyhalf Elton Jantjies, who has spent the last few months playing in the Japanese Top League, to stand up and lead the visitors to a double-digit victory.

Predicted result:  Lions to win @ $1.18 – William Hill

Best Bet 3: Lions -9.5 (vs Sunwolves) @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play)

Crusaders ($1.78) vs Chiefs ($2.05)

The second New Zealand derby comes to us from AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Saturday afternoon when the Crusaders take on the Chiefs. The perennial superpowers, the Crusaders will be disappointed about not making the playoffs last season and will have higher hopes this season, despite losing club legends Richie McCaw and Dan Carter. The Chiefs have made five of the past seven Super Rugby Finals series, with two tournament wins included in that stint. Looking at the history between these two teams, the Chiefs have won seven out of the last 10 matches played, including wins in three of their last four away games.

Prediction: 

This is another difficult match to predict given that both teams match up well on paper. The Crusaders are notoriously slow starters and the Chiefs have been New Zealand’s most consistent side over the past few seasons. The Crusaders clearly have the stronger pack with the likes of Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read, whereas the Chiefs backline looks to have more points in them. Keep an eye on Chiefs winger Shaun Stevenson who has serious talent and will more than likely score a number of tries this season. I am going to stay away from this game from a H2H perspective and potentially look at the overs line closer to kick-off, but if I was forced to pick, I would say the home team.

Predicted result:  Crusaders to win a nail biter @ $1.78 – Sportsbet

Waratahs ($1.18) vs Reds ($5.00)

The latest chapter in one of Australia’s longest sporting rivalries will be written this weekend at Allianz Stadium in Sydney when the Queensland Reds make their way down south to the New South Wales Waratahs.

Prediction: 

The Waratahs have had the wood on the Reds over the last two seasons, winning all four matches. Additionally, the Waratahs held the Reds to a total of 10 points from the matches in Sydney and Brisbane in 2015. The Waratahs have lost some big names in the off-season and Darryl Gibson has stepped up to replace Michael Cheika as head coach. They are still able to put together a title-contending squad, but it will be interesting to see how they handle life without Cheika. The Reds have been in a downward spiral since their 2011 Championship winning feat. Richard Graham has about four to six weeks to turn the ship around or he will get the boot with either Michael O’Connor or Nick Stiles to replace him. Brisbane has produced a number of high quality players who now play for other provinces either in Australia or overseas, but they have struggled to hold onto them. The loss of their inspirational skipper Liam Gill for four weeks is a big blow and I expect the ‘Tahs to pull away in the final quarter after the Reds grind their way through the first half. I can hear the knives sharpening in Brisbane already.

Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.18 – Sportsbet

Force ($1.80) vs Rebels ($2.05)

The sea of blue will pack the rafters at the nib Stadium in Perth on Saturday night when the Force host the Rebels in their respective season-openers. The Rebels have been improving under the guidance of one of my former coach’s Tony McGahan, whereas, Michael Foley has struggled with the Force over the past three seasons. Looking at the two matches between Australia’s ‘newest’ franchises in 2015, the ledger was squared.

Prediction: 

The Western Force can’t really get any worse, but I do think the Rebels have room for improvement. Over the past couple of seasons, the Force have relied on a strong scrum and have learned how to win ugly. They don’t have the personnel to consistently upset the bigger teams in the competition, but they often rise to the occasion when playing their conference rivals. The Rebels have assembled a strong team this season with the recruitment of James Hanson (hooker) and Adam Thomson (flanker) in the pack. Nick Stirzaker and Jack Debreczeni now have a couple seasons under their belts of Super Rugby and I expect them to shoulder more responsibility this season. Both teams will want to get their seasons off to the best possible start and although the Perth heat might stifle the Rebels somewhat, the visitors should have too much in the tank for the Force.

Predicted result: Rebels to win @ $2.05 – Luxbet

Best Bet 4: Rebels ML (vs Force) @ $2.20 – William Hill (early twitter play)

Kings ($5.00) vs Sharks ($1.18)

Super Rugby returns to the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth on Saturday night when the Kings host the Sharks. The Kings return to Super Rugby after a couple of seasons in the tier-two wilderness, whereas the Sharks will be looking to improve on one of their worst seasons in franchise history in 2015, due to poor performances on the field and a spate of ill-disciplinary issues.

Prediction: 

Unsurprisingly, the Kings have really battled to lure any top class talent to the region. They have a lovely stadium that was initially built for the Soccer World Cup in 2010, but I expect to see it very bare throughout the course of the season. The players they have selected for this match simply wouldn’t make an Australian or New Zealand match-day squad, let alone a starting 15. Looking at the Sharks, there are a lot of positive vibes coming out of Durban. Coenie Oosthuizen and Willie le Roux have made their way from Bloemfontein in the off-season and they will be huge additions to the squad. There has been chatter that the Sharks are looking to play a more expansive game this year and there won’t be an easier opportunity to test it out than against the Kings this weekend. The Sharks will win this comfortably.

Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.18 – William Hill

Best Bet 5: Sharks -9.5 (vs Kings) @ $1.90 – William Hill (early twitter play)

Stormers ($1.45) vs Bulls ($2.75)

The Stormers host the Bulls at Newlands Stadium in Cape Town on Saturday night in a clash that sees the two better South African teams clash in the traditional North-South derby. There matches are known for their brutality and I don’t see it being any different this weekend.

Prediction: 

The final match of round one is sure to be all that we have come to expect from these two South African powerhouses. Both teams are littered with Springboks, but there are a number of names that many viewers outside of the Republic wouldn’t be familiar with. The Stormers have a very strong forward pack, including what I believe is the best locking pair in Super Rugby: Pieter Steph du Toit and Eben Etzebeth. Throw in Schalk Burger and you have a pretty formidable eight. I would argue that the Bulls have a better backline, but there are excitement machines in each team with Cheslin Kolbe from the Stormers and Jesse Kriel and Warrick Gallant from the Bulls, the standouts. The Bulls haven’t beaten the Stormers in Cape Town for five years and although this match could go either way, I think the home team will just edge it.

Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.45 – William Hill