Four teams remain in the 2016 edition of Super Rugby and to be frank, the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Lions and Highlanders are all deserving of their semi-final placings. Last weekend, the Highlanders showed why they are back-to-back title contenders with a hard fought win over the Brumbies. The Hurricanes blew the Sharks away, the Lions outclassed the Crusaders and the Chiefs thrashed the Stormers in Cape Town. We have two quality matchups ahead of us this weekend with the Hurricanes and the Chiefs going to battle in Wellington and the Lions will entertain the Highlanders at Ellis Park in Johannesburg. From a betting standpoint, I went three from three last weekend and I am confident with my plays below for the penultimate weekend of the competition. I apologise for not being as active on twitter as I am currently overseas.

Best Bet 1: Chiefs +4.5 (vs Hurricanes) @ $1.92 – Crownbet (early twitter play)

Awaiting points and drop goal markets to come out – will post on twitter

Hurricanes ($1.57) vs Chiefs ($2.50)

The first of two semi-finals takes place on Saturday night between the table-topping Hurricanes and the high-flying Chiefs at Westpac Stadium in Wellington. Last weekend, the Hurricanes schooled the toothless Sharks 41-0 in a comprehensive display in dour conditions in the nation’s capital. Likewise, the Chiefs showed why they are title-contenders running in eight tries against the Stormers in Cape Town. The clash between these two in round nine was an absolutely thriller with the Chiefs narrowly edging the Hurricanes 29-28, with both teams scoring four tries a piece.

Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLWBWWWWW
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLBWLWWLW

Prediction: 

Last weekend, the Hurricanes showed the perfect way to play wet-weather rugby and this could benefit them this week with conditions likely to be similar. Newcomers Loni ‘The Tongan Bear’ Uhila (prop) and Vaea Fifita (lock) have been excellent providing front foot ball for TJ Perenara, a player who has really lifted his game this season. The decision by Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd to bench Julian Savea proved to be a good one with Jason Woodward providing some nice touches and scored a try of his own.
The Chiefs showed what a quality side that they are by putting 60 points on the Stormers in Cape Town – something that doesn’t happen very often at all. They played the game at speed and although they had to make double the amount of tackles the Stormers did, they were effective with their offensive kicking and made the most of their try-scoring opportunities. Rising superstar Damien McKenzie is giving All Blacks coach Steve Hansen a lot to think about with another impressive all-round display after he bagged 25 points. McKenzie stats paint an impressive picture as he has carried the ball more and beaten more defenders than any other player in the competition this season. To add to that, he has made the second most offloads and clean breaks and is currently placed third in metres gained.

There are a number of key battles that will play a key role in determining the outcome of this match. Ardie Savea and Sam Cane will be playing off for a New Zealand spot, as will TJ Perenara and Brad Weber, to see who will be Aaron Smith’s back-up. Beauden Barrett has been on fire this season, but he will want to make amends for his poor display against the Chiefs earlier this season, especially because he comes up against the All Blacks incumbent flyhalf, Aaron Cruden.
The Hurricanes will look to implement a similar game plan that almost worked in round nine which is built around starving their Chiefs of possession and stunting the creativity of the Chiefs. They will also look to attack the wide channels where the Stormers had some success last weekend. It’s hard to ignore the travel factor that the Chiefs have had to endure and the fact that they have such a huge injury count. However, the Chiefs have enough class and leadership right throughout their team and they possess the X-factor and the bench that I think will get them over the line, just.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $2.50 – Luxbet

Best Bet 1: Chiefs +4.5 (vs Hurricanes) @ $1.92 – Crownbet (early twitter play)

Lions ($1.87) vs Highlanders ($1.97)

The Lions have the responsibility of flying the South African flag this weekend in Johannesburg when they take on the reigning Champions the Highlanders at Ellis Park. The home team booked their place in the semi-finals with a mauling of the Crusaders last weekend, whereas the Highlanders were made to work a bit harder and should consider themselves lucky with a 15-9 win over the Brumbies in Canberra. It has been four and a half months since these two teams last clashed in a match that saw the Highlanders blow the Lions away with a 34-15 victory at Forsyth-Barr Stadium.

Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWWWWWLW
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWWWBLWWWW

Prediction: 

The Lions have been a fantastic team to watch this season and they are a team that has improved significantly. Against the All Black-laden Crusaders, the Lions were forced to endure long periods of play without the ball, but the handled the pressure extremely well. They scored more points against the Crusaders than they have against any New Zealand opposition reiterating how far they have come. They raced to an early lead and never looked back and there a number of players in their team that have to be picked to start for the Springboks next month, quotas-permitting.

The Highlanders have finished the season extremely strongly winning seven of their last eight matches played. The reigning champions like to rely on their opposition to make mistakes before pouncing, which makes for an interesting clash given the Lions love of keeping ahold of the ball. Interestingly, only the Kings spent less time with the ball in hand this season and although their first-up tackling hasn’t been the best, their scramble defense and huge work rate is second to none. They also rely heavily on their accurate kicking game, with Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga and Ben Smith all adept at finding open space and placing the ball exactly where they intend to.

There are a number of key matchups, including the front rows and the battle at the breakdown, two areas that will go a long way in determining the outcome of the match. I believe the Lions have a stronger pack, with the Highlanders possessing a more experienced and versatile backline. The Highlanders will look to target the channel between 9 and 10, with Elton Jantjies one of the worst defending flyhalves in the competition. I expect Waisake Naholo to be running angles all receiving inside balls from Sopoaga all night long. Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies do bring a running game that is refreshing to see and I am particularly interested to see the clash between Rohan Janse van Rensburg and All Black Malakai Fekitoa at inside centre.

The Highlanders have circumnavigated the globe in the last month and the travel is something that has to be taken into deep consideration. On the other hand, the Lions have been a settled unit at home for almost four months and Super Rugby in Johannesburg has been reborn. With the Lions having the edge up front and the home crowd on their side, if they manage to subdue the likes of Naholo, Osborne and Smith, I think we might have a Super Rugby final in South Africa next week.

Predicted result: Lions to win a nail-biter @ $1.87 – Luxbet