After 135 games and approximately 10,800 minutes of Super Rugby action, the quarterfinals have been decided. Four exciting clashes await us this weekend with the Brumbies to host the Highlanders, despite the visitors finishing nine points higher than them on the log. The Hurricanes host the Sharks, the Lions welcome the Crusaders and the Chiefs visit Cape Town to take on the Stormers. The New Zealand teams have been a class above and I wouldn’t be surprised to see all four of them to progress this weekend.
From a betting standpoint, I went all-in on the Jaguares to beat the Lions last weekend by 13+ at huge odds, only to lose the play by a single point. Such is betting – you live by the sword and die by the sword. I am off on holiday this weekend but I will be watching the games and will continue to post my previews over the next three weekends.

Best Bet 1: Highlanders -3.5 (vs Brumbies) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Hurricanes -11.5 (vs Sharks) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Chiefs -2.5 (vs Stormers) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Brumbies ($2.50) vs Highlanders ($1.55)

The first of four quarterfinals come to us from the nation’s capital in Canberra as the Brumbies host the Highlanders on Friday night. The Brumbies won the Australian conference last weekend after beating the Western Force in their final match of the regular season. The reigning champions, the Highlanders finished in second place by virtue of beating the Chiefs in Dunedin by a score of 25-15. This will be the second time this season that the Highlanders and the Brumbies go head to head, with the men from Dunedin victorious in their round 10 clash (23-10) in Invercargill.

Brumbies: WWWLWLBWLLWWBWWLW
Highlanders: LWWWWWLBLWWWBLWWW

Prediction: 

The Highlanders victory against the Brumbies earlier this season ended a three match losing streak, but this time they visit Canberra with a semi-final spot on the line. The Brumbies have been hot and cold this season and some key injuries to players like David Pocock in the pack and Joe Tomane in the back line really stifled their momentum. They like to play a territory based game that is fixated on being strong up front allowing halfbacks Tomas Cubelli and Christian Leali’ifano to dictate play. They also love to maul. The return of Pocock is a huge boost for the home team, but when you look at the players that the Highlanders have in key positions and how they suffocated the Chiefs last week, it looks ominous for the home side. I expect the Brumbies outside back trio of Robbie Coleman, Nigel Ah Wong and Aiden Toua to get exposed this week with tries coming through their channels. The only real weakness I see with the Highlanders at the moment is their bench, which is a bit light on experience. Although the Highlanders haven’t won in Canberra since 2006, they have some real class in their ranks and given the fact that they are the reigning champions, I am going to back the visitors to win this one by about 10 on what will be a cold night.

Predicted result: Highlanders to win @ $1.55 – Luxbet

Best Bet 1: Highlanders -3.5 (vs Brumbies) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Hurricanes ($1.16) vs Sharks ($5.20)

The second quarterfinal takes place in windy Wellington between the Hurricanes and the Sharks on Saturday afternoon. The Hurricanes topped the Super Rugby ladder by constructing a masterful performance against the Crusaders last weekend, winning 35-10 and collecting a vital bonus point in the process. The Sharks were lucky enough to scrape into the final eight with an unimpressive win over the Sunwolves in Durban. The Hurricanes will also be looking for redemption having gone down to the Sharks 15-32 in Durban earlier this year.

Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLWBWWWW
Sharks: WWWDLBLLWLWWWBLWW

Prediction: 

The Hurricanes were really impressive last week against the Crusaders and they will be eager to go one better this year after being beaten finalists in 2015. I think even they were surprised that they finished at the top of the table. There are a number of players in the pack that are starting to make a real name for themselves at this level and TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett have been instrumental in organizing a somewhat inexperienced centre pairing. Cory Jane and Julian Savea (although on the bench) are starting to return to form and the Sharks with need to be very weary about sending too many high balls down their throats for good counterattacking possession. Looking at the Sharks, they have battled this season and they are dealing with a huge injury ward. The fact that they are without captain Patrick Lambie yet again through injury really robs them of the direction and leadership that they need. The Sunwolves really put the Sharks under pressure last week and if the visitors give the Hurricanes that many opportunities it will be a long night for them. Earlier this season, the Sharks trounced the Hurricanes at the Shark Tank in Durban, but for me, the Hurricanes are starting to peak at the right time and with jetlag and fatigue due to be a factor, things could get ugly for the Sharks.

Predicted result: Hurricanes to win by double-digits @ $1.16 – William Hill

Best Bet 2: Hurricanes -11.5 (vs Sharks) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)

Lions ($1.85) vs Crusaders ($1.98)

The third quarterfinal pits the Lions against the Crusaders at Ellis Park in Johannesburg on Saturday night. The Lions cost themselves dearly last weekend by fielding an understrength side against the Jaguars in Argentina, going down by 12 points when all they required was a solitary bonus point. The Crusaders also lost any chance of playing again at home this season after going down to the Hurricanes 10-35, despite being well in the match at half-time. The Crusaders will have fond memories of Ellis Park, after beating the Lions 43-37 in round six on the back of a Ryan Crotty hattrick.

Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWWWWWL
Crusaders: LWBWWWWWWBWLWWLWL

Prediction: 

This is a match that I am really excited about and one that sits on a knife-edge. The Lions ‘A’ team had the week off last week while they watched their understudies go down to the Jaguars in Buenos Aires. Some journalists out of the Republic are saying that it was a smart move to avoid jetlag and any injuries, however, they’ve potentially cost themselves a home final and a lot of money that they could really use. They have been an exceptional team this year and it is clear that they have really matured and have proven that when a team is given time to gel (almost four seasons – including Currie Cups) they can really perform at this level. Their pack is their strong suit as they are powerful in the scrums and at lineout time. Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies are key players in the nine and ten jersey and will look to play with tempo. Inside centre Rohan Janse van Rensburg is a future Springbok and combines beautifully with Lionel Mapoe who is having another good season.
Looking at the Crusaders, it is Todd Blackadder’s last season in charge. He is yet to win a title from eight attempts, but they have shown this year that they are certainly in with a chance in 2016. They too have a very experienced lineup with a number of All Blacks at their disposal, but with Joe Moody (prop) and gigantic winger Nemani Nadolo ruled out, they lose some of their lustre in what will be a tough clash. Richie Mounga has had a great year in the ten jersey and he has some experienced campaigners outside of him. It is great to see fullback Israel Dagg back to his best because he is a treat to watch and I expect him to have a big game at a ground that is very iconic to New Zealand rugby. Experienced referee Craig Joubert is in charge this weekend and when he blows his final whistle, I expect the home crowd and the Lions X-Factor to just get them over the line narrowly.

Predicted result: Lions to win by @ $1.85 – Sportsbet 

Stormers ($2.25) vs Chiefs ($1.70)

The final quarterfinal takes place between the Stormers and the Chiefs at Newlands Stadium in Cape Town. The Stormers clinched their conference with a bonus-point win over the lowly Kings, whereas, the Chiefs dropped their fifth match in a row to the Highlanders, but they still managed to jag the wildcard spot. The Chiefs have won the last two matches played against the Stormers, including two of the last three played in Cape Town.

Stormers: WWLWWBWLWLDLWWWW
Chiefs: WLWWWWWBWWLBWLWWL

Prediction: 

This also promises to be an entertaining clash, but I’m not sure if I give the Stormers much of a chance. The Stormers have won their last four matches, but they only have a handful of players who have played consistently good rugby this season. Two of those players are Springbok locks Eben Etzebeth and Pieter-Steph du Toit. They really set the tone defensively and are more than a handful on attack as they are used as real battering rams. The loss of rising flyhalf Jean-Luc du Plessis is a big blow to the home team because he has developed a nice partnership with Damien de Allende and has an all-round game, which is rare to say for South African stand-offs.

Looking at the Chiefs, they were beaten by a better team last week, but they are a joy to watch in any game. They have a lot of experienced campaigners who lead the way for their youngsters who seem like they play with no fear. Like the Highlanders, they have some solid players in key positions and a flyhalf in Aaron Cruden that really has some of the best game management skills in the business. They play the game at a speed that I don’t think the big Stormers forwards are going to be able to handle it. I see the Stormers staying in this match for the first half an hour or so and then I expect the visitors to cruise to a comfortable victory, with Damien McKenzie once again displaying his whole bag of tricks.

Predicted result: Chiefs to win @ $1.70 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: Chiefs -2.5 (vs Stormers) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)