The 142nd and final match of the 2016 Super Rugby tournament takes place on Saturday evening in Wellington between last year’s runners-up the Hurricanes and the roaring Lions of Johannesburg. It has been a fascinating season that has seen the New Zealand teams dominate, the Australian teams falter, with the Lions the shining light in the South African conference. Once this match finishes, rugby fans attention will turn to the ITM Cup (New Zealand), the NRC (Australia) and the Currie Cup (South Africa) on a provincial level, before The Rugby Championship commences in two weeks time with matches between Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and Argentina. From a betting standpoint, it has been an up and down season, with some big highs and some heartbreaking lows. I appreciate the support and the banter I receive on twitter and I look forward to bringing you more rugby coverage throughout the year. Make sure you follow me on twitter using the @S15_TheProfits handle.

Best Bet 1: Lions +8.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet

Hurricanes ($1.36) vs Lions ($3.15)

A sold out Westpac Stadium in Wellington will be the venue for the 20th Super Rugby Final on Saturday evening between the Hurricanes and the Lions. Last weekend, the Hurricanes held the high-flying Chiefs tryless in a 25-9 victory that was once again orchestrated by the brilliant Beauden Barrett and rising superstar Ardie Savea. The Lions also sounded a warning in Johannesburg by beating the reigning champion Highlanders 42-30 in an entertaining match of running rugby with Elton Jantjies once again in sublime form. The Hurricanes will be buoyed by the fact that they handed the Lions a real beating in round 10, 50-17 in Johannesburg, but keep in mind that was three long months ago.

Hurricanes: LLWWWBWWLWLWBWWWWW

Loni Uhila, Ricky Riccitelli/Dane Coles (captain), Ben May, Vaea Fifita, Michael Fatialofa, Brad Shields, Ardie Savea, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Jason Woodward, Willis Halaholo, Matt Proctor, Cory Jane, James Marshall

Substitutes: Ricky Riccitelli/Leni Apisai, Chris Eves, Mike Kainga/Reggie Goodes, Mark Abbott, Callum Gibbins/Tony Lambourn, Jamison Gibson-Park, Vince Aso, Julian Savea

Lions: WWLWBLWWWLBWWWWWLWW

Dylan Smith, Malcolm Marx, Julian Redelinghuys, Andries Ferreira, Franco Mostert, Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg, Warren Whitely (captain), Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Courtnall Skosan, Rohan Janse van Rensburg, Lionel Mapoe, Ruan Combrinck, Andries Coetzee

Substitutes: Akker van der Merwe, Corné Fourie, Jacques van Rooyen, Lourens Erasmus, Ruan Ackermann, Ross Cronjé, Howard Mnisi, Jaco van der Walt

Prediction: 

It is a fitting finale given that these teams finished first and second seeds on the overall ladder at the culmination of the regular season. Last weekend, the Hurricanes scored three tries to nil against the Chiefs, which speaks volumes of not just their attack, but their defensive systems that have held their opponents over the last three weeks (Crusaders, Sharks, Chiefs) to just one try. The Lions scored five tries to the Highlanders four, however, they had control of the match from the first minute and never looked like surrendering the lead.

The Hurricanes season got off to the worst possible start with a 52-10 flogging by the Brumbies in Canberra, followed by a narrow defeat to last year’s finalists, the Highlanders in Dunedin. From that point, they have dropped only two of their next 15 matches (Chiefs/Sharks). But what has spearheaded their success? Let’s start off with their inspirational hooker and skipper, Dane Coles. Firstly, he has been bracketed with Ricci Riccitelli. I don’t think he will play as anyone who has ever had a rib injury knows the pain and your lack of confidence to get involved. Mind you, he has had a stellar season and will probably prove me wrong and get man of the match. Secondly, their unheralded lock pairing have both played the enforcer role and done their job at the set piece. Ardie Savea is going to be an international superstar and I expect him to oust Sam Cane soon in the All Blacks number seven jumper. He has made more tackles than anyone else in the competition, showcasing his huge motor and after securing three breakdown turnovers last week, you couldn’t ask for a more complete performance. The halves pairing of TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett speak for themselves and both make huge metres and are good anytime try scorer options. Their centres have had a huge void to fill with Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith now in Europe, but they definitely get a pass mark this season. If you had told me that Jason Woodward would be starting over Julian Savea in a final on the wing earlier this season, I would’ve laughed in your face, but if things aren’t going according to plan, he will be the first to come off the bench.

The Lions have surprised everyone this season and their performances are definitely reminiscent of Leicester City in the English Premier League. They have adopted a brand of rugby that is synonymous with New Zealand teams, but it is important to note that this style of play has been brewing in Johannesburg since the days when John Mitchell and Carlos Spencer were in charge – it’s not something that has happened over night.  Although they won’t admit it, the Lions and coach Johan Ackermann squandered a home final by sending their ‘B’ team to Argentina in the final round of the competition. It is important to note that no Super Rugby team has ever won the competition where they have had to cross the Indian Ocean. Their front row is where they have the edge this weekend. Malcom Marx at hooker is the next Bismarck du Plessis for the Springboks and his teammate he packed down with in high school, Dylan Smith, has had a breakthrough season at loosehead prop. Lock Franco Mostert is an animal around the field and the back row of Jaco Kriel, Warwick Tecklenburg and captain Whitely form a perfect balance. Jaco Kriel has power, pace and skill so watch out for him to have a big match. Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies have made themselves the starting halves pairing for the Springboks, with Jantjies scoring a try, creating two more and kicked 17 points against the Highlanders last week. Rohan Janse van Rensburg is a Springbok in the making and Lionel Mapoe has proved himself to be much more than a quota player. Courtnall Skosan has lightning pace on the wing, Ruan Combrinck is becoming one of their best players and Andries Coetzee seems safe as a house at fullback.
The Lions attacking efficiency needs to be lauded as they lead the competition in tries scored and broke the Super Rugby season record with 81. That is 11 more tries than their opponents this week. The Lions have had 8 more clean breaks and 66 more defenders beaten than the Hurricanes and they carried the ball for an average of 4.88 metres per carry. On the other hand, the Hurricanes average 4.27 metres per carry, but they did have to play an extra game against New Zealand opposition (7:6).
Defensively, there isn’t a lot separating the teams, but in recent weeks the Hurricanes have shown a steely resolve that will be hard to penetrate in Wellington. The Lions have a remarkably better lineout winning 89.3% on their own throw (5th), whereas, the Hurricanes were ranked 15th with a line-out percentage of 83.4%. Whereas, the ‘Canes have the edge in the scrum, by a narrow amount. An interesting stat relates to giving away yellow cards, something that is detrimental in the final, with the Canes guilty on five occasions this year to the Lions two.

Both teams will be doing their utmost to secure their first ever Super Rugby trophy, but given the travel, the history and the fact that no South African team has ever won a playoff match in New Zealand, it is hard to oppose the Hurricanes. This weekend, if the Hurricanes win they will notch their 8th consecutive victory which would be a club record. The Hurricanes have beaten the Lions seven consecutive times, with the Lions last win coming in 2007 in Johannesburg. Three years ago, the Lions played a promotion/relegation match with the Kings and to think that they are now in the final, is an incredible achievement. This year they won three of four matches on tour and two of three matches against New Zealand opposition. In fact, their last three games against New Zealand opposition has seen them score in excess of 40 points on each occasion. My heart says the Lions but my head and statistics are pointing in the Hurricanes favour. The weather doesn’t look to be good which will favour the Lions and their scrum and Elton Jantjies has a marginally better goal kicking percentage than Beauden Barrett, who has been known to go cold with the boot on occasion. There is an old adage that says that you need to lose one to win one, so Hurricanes players and fans should be excited to raise their first ever Super Rugby trophy and become the fifth and final New Zealand team to do so on Saturday night, but I’ll definitely have more than a nibble on the Lions handicap in what I think will be a high-scoring match.

Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.36 – Luxbet
Best Bet 1: Lions +8.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet

Player Exotics: 
Ardie Savea Total Run Metres O32.5 @ $1.85 – Crownbet (early twitter play)
Beauden Barrett Total Run Meters O44.5 @ $1.85 – Crownbet (early twitter play)
Victor Vito Total Tackles O6.5 @ $1.90 – Crownbet (early twitter play)
Jaco Kriel Total Tackles O6.5 @ $1.90 – Crownbet (early twitter play)

More plays to come