After 125 games and 10,000 minutes of rugby, it all comes down to the grand final in Wellington on Saturday afternoon (17:00 EST), where the Hurricanes and the Highlanders will battle it out for Super Rugby supremacy. What makes this match so intriguing is that neither team has ever won a Super Rugby title, although both teams have made the finals on one occasion, with the Highlanders losing out to the Crusaders in 1999, and the Hurricanes also went down to the men from Christchurch in 2006. It has been a riveting final season of Super Rugby with a new competition structure kicking in from next year. 2015 has seen a plethora of tries scored, some ferocious defensive play on display and a number of new stars have been unearthed, and regardless of the outcome this weekend, Super Rugby has once again delivered.
Last weekend, my best bets went one from three after the Hurricanes coasted to an easy win over the Brumbies in Wellington and the Highlanders ended the Waratahs reign as Super Rugby Champions with a convincing victory in Sydney. This season has been my most successful and most profitable from a betting standpoint and I am confident with what is yet to come on the rugby calendar, which includes the Rugby Championship, ITM Cup, Currie Cup, NRC and the grand daddy of them all, the Rugby World Cup, which takes place in England in only three months time. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter this season, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, last minute plays, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for a fascinating final weekend of Super Rugby.
Best Bet 1: Hurricanes -5.5 (vs Highlanders) @ $1.83 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
*More plays might be posted on twitter closer to kick-off dependent on weather and the status of Hurricanes flanker Ardie Savea
Hurricanes ($1.42) vs Highlanders ($2.90)
Westpac Stadium, otherwise known as the ‘Cake Tin’ will be packed to the rafters on Saturday evening as their hometown heroes battle it out with the high-flying Highlanders from the south in what is going to be an enthralling battle in Wellington. The Hurricanes eased past a tired Brumbies outfit last weekend in the nation’s capital and the Highlanders found a way to subdue the Waratahs in front of a strong crowd at Allianz Stadium in Sydney. Looking at the battles had between these two teams this year, the Hurricanes ended a three match losing streak to the Highlanders with a win over them in Dunedin and compounded their woes with a dominant 56 – 20 point victory in Wellington. To be fair, the Highlanders were understrength, however, the Hurricanes did manage to score eight tries and will be well aware that they have the potency in attack to cause the visitors trouble.
Hurricanes Team:
Reggie Goodes, Dane Coles, Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, James Broadhurst, Brad Shields, Ardie Savea/Callum Gibbins, Victor Vito, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith (Captain), Nehe Milner Skudder, James Marshall
Reserves: Motu Matu’u, Chris Eves, Jeffrey Toomaga-Allen, Callum Gibbins/Mark Abbott, Blade Thomson, Chris Smylie, Rey Lee-Lo, Matt Proctor
Highlanders Team:
Brendon Edmonds, Liam Coltman, Josh Hohneck, Alex Ainley, Mark Reddish, Elliott Dixon, James Lentjes, Nasi Manu (Captain), Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Patrick Osborne, Richard Buckman, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith
Reserves: Ash Dixon, Dan Lienert-Brown, Ross Geldenhuys, Joe Wheeler, Shane Christie, Gareth Evans, Fumiaki Tanaka, Marty Banks
Prediction:
Wellington, the Cake Tin and the surrounding entertainment precincts are going to be buzzing on Saturday evening when the minor premiers, the Hurricanes fight it out with the Highlanders for the Super Rugby title. The Hurricanes are rightful favourites having won 14 of their 16 matches played this year, including eight of the nine matches played at Westpac Stadium. Although the Highlanders from Dunedin haven’t had quite the same success, they still managed 13 victories with wins over highly fancied contenders, the Chiefs and the Waratahs in recent weeks. This season was the first time that the Hurricanes have won the New Zealand Conference, after threatening and falling short on a number of occasions over the last decade. With both teams the last of the New Zealand contingent left to embrace the feeling of winning a Super Rugby title, the winner of this match will certainly claim added bragging rights, as long as a new piece of silverware for the trophy cabinet. Statistically speaking, 90% of the teams in the Hurricanes position have gone onto win the competition, which probably isn’t a fair reflection of the head-to-head odds this weekend.
Looking at the Highlanders, Jamie Joseph has named an unchanged starting team for the final on Saturday. The whole franchise in general has been fortunate this season to not have too many injuries to contend with, with the spine of the team playing the lion’s share of the season. Deconstructing the Highlanders play, it must be mentioned that the Highlanders like to kick the ball a lot, whether it is a box kick from Aaron Smith, a touch finder from Lima Sopoaga or an up and under from Ben Smith at the back, generally ensuring play takes place in the opposition half. In doing so, they continue to pressure their opponents and make them attack from inside their own half, which invariably leads to acts of ill-discipline or unforced errors. Alternatively, if aimless kicking heads back in their direction, the outside backs trio of Patrick Osborne, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith have a great combination of size, skill and raw speed. Right-winger, Waisake Naholo currently leads the try-scorers chart with 12, but Hurricanes halfback TJ Perenara has proven his prolific attacking ability with 11 tries of his own. In saying that, it would be fair to say that Naholo has created more individual tries, with TJ Perenara an excellent exponent of running the right support lines, much like the All Blacks incumbent, and his arch nemesis on Saturday, Aaron Smith.
Casting our eyes towards the Hurricanes, there has been a lot to like about them this season. Their forward pack has been dominant throughout the combination with a strong set piece, great breakdown work and engines that continue to deliver throughout the full eighty minutes. Last weekend’s win over the Brumbies saw the Hurricanes win all 13 lineouts and eight scrums. In a more alarming statistic for the Highlanders, the Hurricanes forced the Brumbies to miss 35 tackles, a season high for the visitors, and a huge number considering the Brumbies were the best defensive team this season in terms of points against. Flanker and future IRB Player of the Year (I’m predicting 2018), Ardie Savea, is set to undertake a last minute fitness test on Saturday and his availability would only swing the momentum more in the home team’s favour. Should he not make the bench, Callum Gibbins, his replacement has been a player that flies under the radar, but more importantly, isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty. Looking at the backline, TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett have a huge task on their hands against Aaron Smith and Lima Sopoaga, with the winner of this battle, most likely heading towards a Super Rugby title. Ma’a Nonu has arguably had one of his best seasons at Super Rugby level, as has Conrad Smith, his All Blacks centre partner. Julian Savea, Nehe Milner Skudder and Tom Marshall also work well in tandem and will no doubt have a bearing on the final result.
The Hurricanes and the Highlanders will be well and truly hyped up for this match on Saturday with the Super Rugby Championship up for grabs. There are key matchups right across the park and there will be added pressure with the All Blacks coaching staff no doubt keeping a keen eye on proceedings with The Rugby Championship just around the corner. Although the Highlanders have a positive record against the Hurricanes in recent years, only two teams in Super Rugby history (the Crusaders and the Bulls) have won a Super Rugby Final away from home. Yes, the Highlanders have performed exceptionally well over the course of the season, yes, their forwards have shown that they can front up and their backline is capable of turning a match on it’s head, but I am not completely sold that they are a Championship winning team. Very rarely have the Highlanders come up against a team that can equal their backline potency and with the Hurricanes forwards laying the platform for the majority of the season, the ‘Canes should be able to suffocate the visitors, build pressure and capitalize on proceedings in the final 20 minutes. Either way, it is going to be a cracking finale and a win for New Zealand rugby and their fans, in a year where every bit of glory counts.
Predicted result: Hurricanes to win @ $1.42 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: Hurricanes -5.5 (vs Highlanders) @ $1.83 – Tab.co.nz (early twitter play)
