The final round of Super Rugby’s regular season kicks off this week and like many seasons that have gone before us, the final playoff picture won’t be painted until the final whistle is blown in Cape Town. Last weekend we saw the Blues and the Bulls eliminated after losses to the Crusaders and the Stormers respectively, but wins by the Chiefs and the Force saw their season’s flame burn for another weekend. The Waratahs wrapped up the regular season premiership with a massive victory over the Highlanders in front of their home fans and the Sharks made things very difficult for themselves having lost to the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein. Courtesy of @JustRugby, last weekend’s action saw 298 points (avg. 43), 29 tries (avg. 4), 24 conversions and 35 penalty goals were kicked.
Round 18 saw me draw some winnings after three out of five best bets cashed and with the final round of seven fixtures this weekend, I’m ready to hit the playoffs with some extra money in the kitty. All of the local derbies this weekend either have playoff implications or serious historical value, so the rugby gods have really set us up for a classic final round. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.\
Best Bet 1: Chiefs -1.0 (vs Blues) @ $1.95 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Cheetahs to win (vs Lions) @ $2.10 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: Sharks to win (vs Stormers) @ $1.88 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 4: Brumbies/Bulls/Waratahs – all to win @ $2.26 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Blues ($1.91) vs Chiefs ($1.91)
The Blues and the Chiefs kick off a feast of rugby action on Friday in Auckland, as we will witness what could be the final Friday afternoon New Zealand derby of the season. The Blues are coming off a hard fought loss to the Crusaders last weekend in Christchurch and require five competition points and a 38 points win this weekend against the Chiefs to advance. The Chiefs season is also on life support, however, they are still a mathematical chance of achieving their third successive Super Rugby title.
Blues
The Blues more than anybody know that their season is on the precipice of coming to an end, but they will certainly be up for the challenge this weekend. In front of their home fans at Eden Park this season, they have won all six fixtures against some top quality sides. Sir John Kirwan has made a number of changes to his squad this week due to various injuries, form issues and Sevens commitments. Prop Tony Woodcock who has been one of the Blues best players this season, but misses out with a shoulder injury and Captain Luke Braid has been sidelined until next year after the news that he has to undergo a dreaded double shoulder reconstruction. Sam Prattley and Brendon O’Connor have been drafted in as the chosen reinforcements. Lock Patrick Tuipulotu is having a spectacular breakout season and looks like he will be a part of the All Blacks setup for a number of years to come. Steven Luatua and Jerome Kaino will join O’Connor in the back row. Bryn Hall and Ihaia West continue to work together in the halves and look likely to continue this partnership into the future. Pita Ahki has left the team to join the New Zealand Sevens quad to prepare for the Commonwealth Games in Glasgow and Francis Saili will replace him at outside centre. Charles Piutau moves to his more preferred position of fullback, with Tevita Lee on the left wing and Lolagi Visinia and George Moala bracketed on the right wing in what looks like a potent back line.
Chiefs
In 2014, the Chiefs simply haven’t looked like the world-beaters they have been over the past two seasons. Although they still remain in contention, it would be difficult to see them finish with Aaron Cruden and Liam Messam holding the trophy aloft given what they would have to conquer over the next few weeks. I put their slow season down to a combination of things including the departure of a number of their stalwarts (Craig Clarke, Lelia Masaga etc.), the ability that other teams have simply figured them out and their lack of consistency in terms of selection. Coaches Dave Rennie and Wayne Smith have shuffled their pack of starters around like a poker dealer since the very start of the competition and this simply hasn’t allowed for combinations to develop and flourish. However, he has made a mockery of me this week by only announcing the one change for the matchup against the Blues. Charlie Ngatai who always seems to be struck by the injury curse has made way for the departing Bundee Aki (Connacht – Ireland) at inside centre and he forms a dynamic partnership with Tim Nanai-Williams. Both Brodie Retallick and Aaron Cruden had their best games of the Super Rugby season last week and it is no surprise that the Chiefs won when they did.
Prediction
It is a huge match for both teams given a good result would see them progress and a bad result would mean an early mad Monday celebration. The Chiefs have won the last six matches between these two, including the last three at Eden Park so history is certainly on their side. The losses of Tony Woodcock and Luke Braid to injury certainly hamper the Blues chances and I just think that the Chiefs have earned the right to feature once again in the playoffs, even though winning the tournament looks like a distant possibility at this stage.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win in a relatively high-scoring match @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 1: Chiefs -1.0 (vs Blues) @ $1.95 – Sportsbet
Brumbies ($1.32) vs Force ($3.45)
The rested and rejuvenated Brumbies welcome the Western Force to Canberra Stadium on Friday night in what promises to be a tense contest. The Brumbies are well aware that anything but a victory will do this weekend, but the Western Force are on the verge of the franchise’s first ever trip to the playoffs, so I expect it to be a pulsating encounter. The Brumbies dominated this corresponding fixture in Perth in March, however, they won’t have fond memories of that fixture, as it was the game flanker David Pocock went down with yet another season ending injury.
Brumbies
This weekend, the Brumbies will regain the services of Matt Toomua after a few weekends on the sidelines, which will no doubt boost their chances of winning this fixture. He showed his value throughout the June Test series whitewash over the French and reunites his combination with Nic White and Christian Leali’ifano. Nic White is in line to make his 50th appearance for the Brumbies this weekend and he has experienced a rapid rise to fame over the last twelve months and has now cemented the Wallabies number nine jersey as his own. Skipper Ben Mowen has chosen to further his career with Montpellier as of next season, so he and the other 17 departing members of the playing squad and management team will be looking to prolong their season this weekend in the winner takes all encounter. Looking at the team sheet named by head Coach Stephen Larkham, the continued absence of Stephen Moore leaves a big hole, but with players such as Ben Alexander, Scott Sio, Scott Fardy and Ben Mowen in the pack, there is enough skill and leadership to offset Moore’s unavailability. The backline is pack full of power and pace with Clyde Rathbone once again selected on the left wing and with Pat McCabe and Joe Tomane sitting on the bench, the Brumbies do have enough firepower to bring on should things not be going their way.
Force
The Western Force are on the brink of achieving a playoff birth, but travelling to Canberra in the middle of winter is a far cry to what they would expect west of the Nullarbor in Perth. They returned to the winner’s circle last week with a good win over the Reds, but they will face a much classier outfit in the Brumbies on Friday. There were questions over Michael Foley’s coaching ability having been let go from the Waratahs a couple of seasons ago, but what he has achieved in a short period of time with a relatively unheralded squad must be commended. Pek Cowan, Nathan Charles and Kieran Longbottom have been a durable unit up front all season and will face a stern test against the Brumbies front three. Locks Sam Wykes and Wilhelm Steenkamp have supported their dynamic back row of Brynard Stander, Captain Matt Hodgson and Ben McCalman very well this year and collectively as a back five they have very astute knowledge of the breakdown and slowing down opposition ball. Ian Prior and Zack Homes continue their partnership in the halves, but I do see them as a weakness in the team. Chris Tuatara-Morrison and Solomoni Rasolea form a large centre pairing and the Japan-bound Nick Cummins, Dane Haylett Petty and Jayden Hayward have been extremely solid at the back for the Force in 2014.
Prediction
The Brumbies have a great record in Canberra and have more players with big match temperament. Some would say that the Force have the unity and belief within their squad that is matched by very few, but at the end of the day, the Brumbies have been here and done it before and I expect them to run out victorious in a huge match in the nation’s capital on Friday night.
Predicted result: Brumbies to win @ $1.32 – Sportsbet
Bulls ($1.06) vs Rebels ($9.50)
Loftus Versfeld will be the setting for the final match of the season for both the Bulls and the Rebels on Friday night. Both teams are also coming off disappointing losses after the Rebels went down to the Lions in Johannesburg (17 – 34) and the Stormers shutout the Bulls (0 – 16) and knocked them out of playoff contention. Surprisingly, the Bulls and the Rebels have only ever faced each other on two previous occasions with the Bulls winning both of them 41 – 35 (2012) and 47 – 10 (2011).
Bulls
The Bulls have produced the good, the bad and the ugly in this year’s Super Rugby competition and will no doubt want to finish their season on a high in Pretoria. At full flight, the Bulls play some wonderful rugby combining brute force and tactics to gain forward ascendency before letting their general at fly half decide how he wants to unleash his backs. The four losses in succession on their overseas tour really derailed their season, but they will be better for it having to travel overseas with a fairly young team as a result of the mass exodus South African rugby is currently experiencing. They will use the Currie Cup over the next few months to continue to blood more youngsters, most notably their victorious Junior Springboks into the professional setup on the Highveld.
Last weekend’s disappointing loss has seen Coach Frans Ludeke make wholesale changes to his team this week. The front row of Werner Kruger, Callie Visagie and Dean Grayling has been replaced by Morne Mellett, Bandise Maku and newly capped Springbok Marcel van der Merwe respectively. Paul Willemse and Captain Victor Matfield have survived the axe in the second row and Roelof Smit will make his first start for the Bulls in place of the injured Grant Hattingh. Piet van Zyl comes in at halfback, shifting Francois Hougaard to the wing in place of the injured Akona Ndungane. Being the last game of the season, two Baby Boks in Nicolaas Janse van Rensburg and Jessie Kriel have been selected on the bench and it will be interesting to see how they cope at this level.
Rebels
The Rebels are still a number of years away from being potential playoff candidates, but there have been promising enough signs throughout the year to keep fans hopeful for future success. Coach Tony McGahan has brought a hard-working culture to Melbourne, but they just need to develop a bit more consistency in their game. Captain Scott Higginbotham has had a fairly quiet season by his standards and he has also played his last match of the Super Rugby season after receiving his third yellow card, which saw the judiciary hand him a one-match ban. The injuries to Tom Kingston and Bryce Hegarty have really compounded the Rebels woes, but New Zealand-born Scott Fuglistaller will have his first taste of captaincy in Super Rugby. The forward pack remains abrasive and full of grunt, but their backs are somewhat light on with the aforementioned injuries. The Rebels will need to be on their game this weekend or a blowout won’t be out of the question, but I know personally that Tony McGahan will not tolerate anything but a big effort in the hostile environment of Loftus Versfeld.
Prediction
This isn’t a match that is going to attract much attention, but the fact that both of these two teams have little to play for should produce a free-flowing encounter. The two matches played have yielded a large amount of points and should the forecast of clear weather be accurate, it could be a try fest in Pretoria.
Predicted result: Bulls to win @ $1.06 – Sportsbet
Crusaders ($1.21) vs Highlanders ($4.50)
The Crusaders will host the Highlanders from Dunedin in a crucial Super Rugby clash on Saturday afternoon in a match that will decide the fates of both teams. In Round 18, the Crusaders held onto top spot (in NZ) with a gutsy win over the Blues, thanks to two tries by the Fijian juggernaut Nemani Nadolo. On the other hand, the Highlanders attacking threats were largely nullified by a powerful Waratahs pack as they went down 16 – 44 at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.
Crusaders
It doesn’t come as a surprise to see the Crusaders feature at the business end of the season, given they have been here every year since 2001. Seven Super Rugby titles breeds a winning culture through the organisation and with a huge number of All Blacks Test caps amongst their ranks, their big match temperament is usually pretty sound. Coach Todd Blackadder is under pressure to perform as the trophy cabinet has not been added to in recent years and he will have to do without his usual skipper Richie McCaw for at least another week. Sam Whitelock has been recalled this week to bolster the tight five and Jordan Taufua, Matt Todd and Kieran Read form a potent back row. There was talk that Dan Carter might return to flyhalf this weekend, but Colin Slade has managed to hold onto that jersey for at least enough week despite taking a couple of huge head knocks over the past few weekends. Israel Dagg is also back this weekend and the Crusaders main threat and one of the finds of the season Nemani Nadolo remains on the wing having scored nine tries already this season. As always, their bench remains strong with a number of the players playing a lot of rugby in this starting 15 already this season.
Highlanders
The Highlanders will be gutted after last Sunday’s loss to the Waratahs and their confidence would’ve taken a huge blow. They have been one of the form teams in recent weeks, but they were simply outplayed and outclassed in Sydney and they will have to rebound quickly this weekend against the fast-finishing Crusaders. Their pack met their match in Sydney and found it hard to gain any sort of parity at the breakdowns and because of that, players like Ben Smith, Malakai Fekitoa and Patrick Osborne were largely ineffective. The Crusaders will adopt a similar approach this weekend having seen the Waratahs blueprint for success, so they will need to improve their accuracy significantly if they want a favourable position in the playoffs. The loss of Ben Smith this week to injury is a huge blow with former Chiefs player Trent Renata selected to replace him. The only other change sees the accurate goal kicker in Hayden Parker take over from Lima Sopoaga with the forward pack remaining unchanged. The Highlanders bench doesn’t have the experience or the same skill level in comparison to the Crusaders, so they will need to get an early lead if they want to stay in the contest.
Prediction
The New Zealand Conference title is still up for grabs and with that comes a vital home playoff fixture. The Waratahs showed last week that the Highlanders struggle when their forwards are outplayed and given the big names that the men from Christchurch possess in the pack, I think it could be a case of déjà vu on the scoreboard this weekend with a victory to the home team.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win and wrap up the New Zealand Conference @ $1.21 – Sportingbet
Reds ($2.90) vs Waratahs ($1.42)
The latest chapter in one of Australia’s longest sporting rivalries will be written on Saturday evening at the fortress known as Suncorp Stadium. The Reds are coming off a demoralising loss to an impressive Western Force outfit in Perth, while the Waratahs sealed their first ever minor premiership after smashing the Highlanders in Sydney last Sunday. Earlier this season, the Waratahs ended the Reds five match winning streak against them with a 32 – 5 win in Sydney.
Reds
2014 has been a dour season for the Reds and ever since their maiden Super Rugby win in 2011, things have only been in decline. The Reds have had to deal with a number of injuries this year to key players including the likes of Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Chris F Sautia, but at the same time a number of players have really stood up and proved that the development system is working well in Queensland. Centre Samo Kerevi had one of the best debuts of any player that I have seen for a long time making six line breaks against a usually pretty watertight Force defense. Curtis Browning has also been a trojan around the field since Ed Quirk went down with injury and James Horwill appears to have regained the form that once saw him such a crucial member of the Wallabies. Coach Richard Graham has made just the two changes this week bringing in halfback Scott Gale for his run-on debut after Nick Frisby underwent jaw surgery during the week and Greg Holmes takes over from Ben Daley at loosehead prop. The backline remains the same and Chris Kuridrani is also in line to get his first minutes for the Reds in the second half as a reserve outside back. Kuridrani is Samo Kerevi’s club teammate at GPS, the team that won the Queensland Premier Rugby Cup last season and is also a player to watch out for over the coming seasons.
Waratahs
It has taken so many years for the Waratahs to put together consistent performances and achieve commendable results, but if you ask their fans now, I am sure they would say it has been worth the wait. Under the tutelage of Michael Cheika, who himself played over 300 games for Sydney club team Randwick, the Waratahs have developed a work ethic and attitude that has clearly helped them produce the goods on the field. They have always been a team that possesses countless numbers of Wallabies, but this year, Cheika has them working in unison and their X factor stars are certainly taking the Super Rugby stage by storm. South African import Jacques Potgieter has been one of the best buys of the season and has really added the grunt up front that already includes the likes of Tatafu Polota Nau, Sekope Kefu and Wycliff Palu. In the backs, Nick Phipps and Bernard Foley have developed into a sharp halves combination that is making life easy for the likes of Kurtley Beale, Adam Ashley-Cooper and the always dangerous, Israel Folau. Their six-try performance against the in-form Highlanders last weekend was definitely their best performance of the season and it is going to take an almighty team to break their stride heading towards the Championship bout. The loss of Israel Folau this week is somewhat of a blow given the influence he does have on the majority of the matches he plays, but perhaps it is a case of smoke and mirrors as the Waratahs don’t have anything to gain from this clash. Cam Crawford will replace Folau in one of two changes to the starting fifteen this week. The other change occurs in the forwards where Jacques Potgieter and Will Skelton continue their rotation policy in the second row.
Prediction
The Reds are on the way down and the Waratahs are on the way up – it is as simple as that. Although the Reds will certainly be up for this battle, especially at Suncorp Stadium, they have a monumental task ahead of them to knock over the minor premiers. The Reds have proven that on their day they can pretty much beat anyone, but I give them very little chance this weekend and the Waratahs should be heading into their week off, high in confidence and ready to go one better than their previous best results of losing finalists in 2005 and 2008, both of which were to the Crusaders.
Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.42 – Sportsbet
Lions ($1.72) vs Cheetahs ($2.15)
Ellis Park, the home of Springbok rugby will host the ‘lowly’ matchup between the Lions (13th) and the confident Cheetahs (14th) on Saturday night. Last weekend, the Lions secured their sixth victory of the season over a hapless Rebels outfit and conversely, the Cheetahs shocked the Sharks in Bloemfontein in one of the biggest upsets of the season, albeit due to a dubious refereeing decision.
Lions
The Lions have surprised many this season after a year in the wilderness so far securing six wins heading into their final match of the season. It has been their most successful year since they changed their name from the Cats for the 2007 season and under the leadership of Johan Ackermann with players like Jaco Kriel, Warren Whiteley, Faf de Klerk and Marnitz Boshoff, the Lions look to have a bright future. Their scrum has been the most successful in the competition in terms of winning their own ball and considering there aren’t any Springboks in the pack (except Franco van der Merwe when he hasn’t been injured), it is an excellent achievement. It is clear that there is unity amongst the playing group and that they all buy into the style of play and game plan devised by their coaching panel. Last weekend, the Lions dug deep to overturn a three-point deficit heading into the final stanza of the match to eventually run as 34 – 17 winners. Lions sharpshooter and recently capped Springbok Marnitz Boshoff had a great day out scoring 19 points and clearly showed the potential that Springbok Coach Heyneke Meyer sees in him. At the time of writing, Johan Ackermann has not released his team sheet, however, I don’t expect too many changes after their strong performance last weekend.
Cheetahs
The Cheetahs would’ve been ecstatic after their narrow victory over the Sharks last weekend and rightly so because they really gave their fans something to smile about after what has been a very inconsistent season. They defended their try line gallantly in the final minutes of the match, something they haven’t done with much vigour this season. The Cheetahs forward pack was on song and scored off a memorable 30 metre rolling maul and Johan Goosen had a good day at the office against an understrength Sharks outfit. The Cheetahs play some fantastic rugby at times and when you run your eye over their team sheet, it doesn’t really come as a surprise. The front row is mobile, but strong enough to set a good platform at scrum time, Lood de Jager and Francois Uys are very underrated locks and their back row is flexible enough to play either in close or out wide, dependent on the game plan and conditions. Sarel Pretorius and Johan Goosen both like to play the game at pace and Ryno Benjamin and Johann Sadie are competent midfielders. I have waxed lyrical about Willie le Roux and his skill set all season and when you add Cornel Hendricks and Raymond Rhule to the outside backs, opposing kickers need to be very accurate with their long distant kicking or they can be made to pay in an instant.
Prediction
The Lions and the Cheetahs have a longstanding history, particularly at Currie Cup level. The Cheetahs have won four of the five fixtures played between the two provinces in Super Rugby, however, the scores have been relatively low considering, which is baffling considering their usually pretty leaky defences. All in all, the Cheetahs are a solid outfit and showed that they can mix it with the best as they did against the Sharks last weekend. In the last game of the season for these two, I can see the Cheetahs’ Springboks standing up and imposing themselves on a Lions team that is still cutting their teeth in Super Rugby.
Predicted result: Cheetahs to win @ $2.15 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Cheetahs to win (vs Lions) @ $2.10 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Stormers ($1.91) vs Sharks ($1.91)
The sea of blue and whites will be faced with one of their sternest challenges of the season as they face the playoff hungry Sharks at Newlands Stadium in Cape Town. The Stormers have been one of the stronger finishers of the season having won their last four matches including a solid victory over the Bulls last week. Contrarily, the Sharks have had an awful end to the season dropping vital matches against the Lions and last week to the Cheetahs, which quite possibly could’ve cost them their season.
Stormers
Throughout the Stormers run of four consecutive victories, they have managed to hold their opposition scoreless in two of those (Cheetahs and the Bulls). Over the past few seasons, the Stormers have been known to have the stingiest defense in the competition, however, their massive casualty ward and their slow start to the season has really contributed to a disappointing season. The resurrection of Schalk Burger, the development of Nizaam Carr, the versatility of Deon Fourie and the unearthing of Damien de Allende in the centres have been four of the key highlights for the Cape-based franchise this year, but at least they will head into next season playing an attacking brand of rugby that has worked so well for them in recent weeks. Coach Alastair Coetzee has once again opted to make only the one change to his starting 15 this week to play the Sharks by bringing in the bulky Tiaan Liebenberg who takes over from the injured Deon Fourie. Fourie is definitely a loss for the Stormers given his ability to play like an additional back rower and this was evident last week when he made a round-high four turnovers at the breakdown. The additions of Cheslin Kolbe, Juan de Jong and Gio Aplon certainly gave the Stormers more impetus on attack against the Bulls, however, I think the Sharks will target these players with their big ball running forwards because of their small stature.
Sharks
After such a promising start to the season that saw the Sharks baton down the hatches at the top of the log for so many weeks, their season is all but looking peachy heading into the last round of the regular season. It has been almost two months since the Sharks tasted victory having lost to both the Cheetahs and the Stormers in recent rounds. Jake White says the Sharks just want to get a win against the Stormers at Newlands on Saturday despite the luxury of knowing whether they need the bonus point for four tries or whether they have to improve their points differential heading into the match. White’s decision to rest a number of his Springboks last week has come under scrutiny, however, it is clear that he has the faith in his troops to travel overseas and win the competition. The Beast, Tendai Mtawarira still remains on the sidelines, but the du Plessis brothers have both been recalled. Last week’s captain Jean Deysel has also been summoned to the bench with the rangy Ryan Kankowski selected at number eight. Francois Steyn returns to fly half after a lacklustre performance last weekend by youngster Tim Swiel. Lwazi Mvovo, Paul Jordaan, JP Pietersen, S’bura Sithole and SP Marais round out the backs in a strong looking Sharks line up. Jake White has also named a strong bench and one gets the feeling that he will need to call on them with this matchup set to be an extremely physical encounter.
Prediction
Some would say that the Sharks have thrown their season away after a very poor end to the regular season. Conversely, the Stormers have finished strongly with the wind in their sails, so this match is setup to be a classic South African derby. When it is all said and done, the Sharks have more to play for and I expect Jake White to mastermind what should be an important victory that keeps the Durban-based outfit in the hunt for their first ever Super Rugby title.
Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: Sharks to win (vs Stormers) @ $1.88 – Sportsbet (early twitter play)
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
