The penultimate round of Super Rugby’s regular season is upon us and with a number of surprising results last weekend, the regular season title is still up for grabs. It was evident that a host of the International players that represented their provinces on the weekend brought the confidence, tempo and physicality back to Super Rugby and it made for some entertaining viewing. The action kicked off with a traditional New Zealand classic between the Highlanders and the Chiefs, with the former prevailing and most likely ending the Chiefs two-year stranglehold on the tournament. The Reds found some form by routing the Rebels in Melbourne, the Hurricanes surprised the Crusaders, the Waratahs outclassed the Brumbies and the Blues stylishly won their first away match in 16 months over the Force. We were also treated to a comprehensive Springboks victory over Scotland that showcased the depth that South Africa now has within their system.
We are back to the full complement (seven) of matches this weekend, with the Brumbies the team with the untimely bye. The blockbuster clash of the weekend will without doubt be the match between the Waratahs and the Highlanders at Allianz Stadium in Sydney on Sunday afternoon, but both New Zealand will also be intriguing. Last weekend I was only successful with two Best Bets so I am hoping to return to the winner’s circle this week in what has been a profitable season. Below I will analyse each match and provide some plays that I believe are favouring us, the punters. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: First Half Tries – Over 2.5 (Chiefs vs Hurricanes) @ $2.26 – Sportsbet
Note: More plays will be released once all markets have been revealed!
Chiefs ($1.66) vs Hurricanes ($2.25)
The Chiefs and the Hurricanes will collide in Hamilton in what looks likely to be another Friday evening epic in New Zealand. The Chiefs still remain in contention by the skin of their teeth after their 25 – 29 loss to the Highlanders last weekend in Dunedin. On the other hand, the Hurricanes edged the Crusaders in an arm-wrestle in front of the best crowd at Westpac Stadium in Wellington this season.
Chiefs
Over the past two seasons, the Chiefs have been without a doubt the form team of the competition with their ability to adapt their game plans to combat their opposition rated as second to none. They have a big and experienced forward pack with some powerful and pacey backs that don’t need a second invitation to break through the line and score, however, this season the Chiefs have really struggled to find that rhythm. Whether it is due to a number of their stalwarts leaving at the end of 2013 or the fact that other teams have simply figured them out is debateable, but the thought of the Chiefs not making the playoffs this season is something that very few would’ve predicted. Two bonus point victories and some other results going their way would leave them in playoff contention, so expect an all out attack from the Chiefs this weekend. Coach Dave Rennie has rung the changes in the backline this weekend with only All Black five-eight Aaron Cruden retaining his spot. Consequently, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, James Lowe, Charlie Ngatai, Tim Nanai-Williams, Asaeli Tikoirotuma and Tom Marshall all find themselves starting this weekend. In the pack, big Jamie Mackintosh comes into the line up to form a huge front row alongside Mahonri Schwalger and Ben Tameifuna. Brodie Retallick continues to go from strength to strength in the second row and Tanerau Latimer will be playing his last game in Hamilton after securing a contract in Japan.
Hurricanes
I say it every week, but the Hurricanes in full flight are one of the best teams to watch play rugby in the world. Traditionally, they have always had very strong, powerful and elusive backs (Jonah Lomu, Christian Cullen etc.) and they still do with the likes of Alapati Leiua and Julian Savea. However, it is in the pack where the most improvement has been made with a younger brigade of talent coming through the ranks, which has kept them lurking towards the top of the table for a large duration of this competition. Currently sitting in fifth place, the Hurricanes will be going for the four-try bonus point this weekend and they will extract confidence out of the fact that they did exactly that in Wellington only a few weeks ago. The losses of the aforementioned Leiua and Victor Vito are huge given the thrust that they provide in open play, but they still managed to overpower the Crusaders last weekend having lost the two of them in the opening stanza. Mark Hammett has brought in Hadleigh Parkes for Leiua and promising youngster Brad Shields will play at the back of the scrum due to Vito’s injury. There appears to be somewhat of a hooker crisis in Wellington given the fact that they haven’t named either the starter or the bench player as of Thursday evening. Dane Coles, Motu Matu’u and Ash Dixon are all under injury clouds, but I would expect to see some changes there and the loss of Coles would be huge, especially given the Chiefs woeful lineout this season.
Prediction
The Chiefs will be out to reinvigorate their season, especially after the 8 – 45 thumping they received from the Hurricanes in May. Both teams require maximum points from this game given the fact that the Chiefs are so far down the log and also the fact that the Hurricanes have a bye in the last round. This game will be expansive and with some of the best attacking threats on display, this could well and truly be one of the games of the season. For me, the Chiefs could well and truly win this match, but the fact that they have lost their last three doesn’t leave me with a lot of confidence.
Predicted result: Chiefs to win in a relatively high-scoring match @ $1.66 – Sportsbet
Lions ($1.45) vs Rebels ($2.80)
Late on Friday night, the 13th placed Lions host the 14th placed Melbourne Rebels at Ellis Park. It is not going to be a game that gets a big audience, both at the ground or on television, but watching two teams trying to avoid the wooden spoon does have the potential to be entertaining. The Lions are coming off a strong win over the Bulls before the June Test match series break, whereas the Rebels have lost the last three to Waratahs, Brumbies and last weekend to the Reds and it appears that the end of the season can’t come soon enough.
Lions
The first season back for the Lions in Super Rugby has been a mixed bag. In my season preview, I gave them no chance of finding themselves anywhere higher than the stoop of the ladder, but dismal seasons so far from the Rebels and the Cheetahs have certainly propped them up. There have been a lot of highs for Lions rugby this season including victories over the Blues, Reds and Bulls. In fact, the Lions won four of their first six games. Eventually, they succumbed to the arduous nature of the competition where their depth in key areas was exposed and their lack of experience at this level has been contributing factors. In saying that, Coach Johan Ackermann has certainly unearthed some talent that he can build his squad and game around in the coming years. Captain Franco van der Merwe returns to action this week two months ahead of schedule after an ankle injury in what can be described as an unheralded pack. Lions number eight Warren Whitely has been monumental all season and I expect a big game from him this weekend. There are no real surprises in the backs with Marnitz Boshoff selected to run the plays at fly half, but the bench is powerful with the likes of Derick Minnie, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies and Lionel Mapoe all regular starters this year, so this could help swing momentum their way in the back half of the match.
Rebels
The Rebels made a bold move instating Wallabies Assistant Coach Tony McGahan into the head coach role prior to the start of the season and for the most part it has paid off. Although I backed them to win five games or less this season (currently won four), they have looked more than capable of winning many more as some of their losses have been by the narrowest of margins. Tony McGahan’s influence as defensive coach and his nous around the breakdown has really tightened is more than evident and the Rebels seem to play with a lot more structure. One of their biggest issues has always been consistency and the fact that they have struggled to score many points this year could well be attributed to the likes of James O’Connor, Danny Cipriani and Kurtley Beale leaving at the end of last season. Since their inception into the competition in 2010, the Rebels have never won in South Africa, but this could be their best possible opportunity, so I expect them to turn up in Johannesburg following three consecutive lacklustre defeats. At the time of writing, Tony McGahan has not released his team, however, I don’t expect too many changes.
Prediction
This is a really tough match to predict given the Lions strength at home and the unpredictability of the Rebels. Both teams are playing for pride, so I expect the play to be quite open. Marnitz Boshoff is a deadly accurate and lengthy kicker and any Rebels discipline will most likely be punished on the scoreboard. The travel factor certainly comes into consideration for this match and I am leading towards the Lions, but I don’t think it’ll be by a huge margin.
Predicted result: Lions to win @ $1.45 – Sportsbet
Crusaders ($1.38) vs Blues ($3.10)
Saturday’s action kicks off at AMI Stadium in Christchurch where the Crusaders host the rampant Blues in what should also be a spectacle. The Crusaders loss (9 – 16) to the Hurricanes came as somewhat of a surprise last weekend and they will be looking to bounce back this week with a win to bolster their chances of topping the New Zealand Conference. They will have to play well given their opponents, the Blues completely dismantled the Force (40 – 14) in Perth in a dominant display of running rugby.
Crusaders
Although the Crusaders haven’t won the title since 2008, the perennial superpowers still remain the most consistent and successful franchise in the history of competition. The men from Christchurch have won seven titles since the start of the competition and since 2008, their worst finish has culminated in a semi-finals loss. They are comprised of a host of All Blacks including future Hall of Famers Richie McCaw, Kieran Read and Dan Carter and the youth that they unearth and nurture are of the highest quality. Coach Todd Blackadder has been under fire over the past few seasons having not captured the Super Rugby trophy and another failed attempt this season could well see the knives begin to get sharpened in Christchurch.
Last weekend against the Highlanders, the Crusaders were held to a single digit score (9) for the first time since 2009. Over a long period of time, they have been renowned for their ability to score some sensational tries and being able to suffocate the opposition with brutal defense, but it didn’t go to plan in Dunedin. This season, the Crusaders have played in waves where they started the season very slowly, but then made up a lot of ground through the middle of the competition. Two losses in their last four fixtures have seen them just cling onto the lead in the New Zealand Conference on the basis of points differential. This weekend, Blackadder has thrown caution to the wind and recalled his All Blacks trio of Kieran Read (number eight), Dan Carter (inside centre) and Israel Dagg, which certainly strengthens their team and gives them that extra dimension that they lacked last weekend.
Blues
Many people forget that the Blues are two-time Super Rugby Champions (1997 & 2003) and only the Crusaders and the Bulls have won more titles than them. Ever since they last held the trophy aloft at Eden Park in 2003, the Blues have really struggled, but the fairly recent acquisitions of Sir John Kirwan and over the past couple seasons having Sir Graham Henry as a technical advisor, the Blues have looked like they are starting to turn things around. They have a number of All Blacks, both in the forwards and the backs and last week in Perth, they showed exactly what they are capable of by securing the bonus point inside of 20 minutes and became only the third team to score 40 or more points against the Force in Perth. In doing so, they still remain a mathematical chance of making it into the playoffs for the first time in three seasons.
This weekend in Christchurch, Kevin Mealamu will make his 150th Super Rugby appearance for the Blues (160 in total). He has been a warrior for the Blues and the All Blacks over the years and is an even better guy off the field – truly a great ambassador of the game. The only other change to the starting team this week sees the return of Charles Piutau on the wing in place of George Moala. Piutau was in sublime form prior to his injury and his inclusion is a great boost to the Blues and New Zealand rugby in general.
Prediction
You have to go back to round three when these two last clashed and it was the Blues that prevailed (35 – 24) on the back of 29 unanswered points through relentless attack and poor defense. The Crusaders will be out for revenge and with both teams still a chance of making the playoff series, this will be a mouth-watering contest. It was in 2004 that the Blues last managed to beat the Crusaders in Christchurch and although they have some superstars of their own, the red and blacks should have too much firepower to secure a narrow victory.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win a close one @ $1.38 – Sportsbet
Force ($1.72) vs Reds ($2.15)
The Force’s season is on the line on Saturday night when they clash with the Reds in what should be a physical local derby in Perth. The Force hit a bump in the road last weekend when the Blues ran rings around them like no other team has done so far this season in the west, whereas an understrength Reds line up comfortably ran in six tries to demolish the lowly Melbourne Rebels at Aami Park. Surprisingly, the Force have won three of the last four matches between these to clubs, with the other match being a draw.
Force
It was a rarity to see the Force cave last weekend in front of their home fans, especially given how close they are to making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. If they fail to make it, that game is certainly one that they will look back on with ill feelings. At times in the first half, the Force looked like they had no answer to the Blues juggernaut, but they did show some fight scoring two second half tries. The Force are a team that do the basics well and this has been instilled in them by Coach Michael Foley. They have a strong set piece (lineout and scrum), their back row generally performs strongly at the break down, the team collectively defends with assertiveness and Sias Ebersohn has a reliable boot to covert pressure into points and pin teams back in their own half. However, they really lack that exquisite playmaker or backline star that can cut defences to pieces and turn a match on its head. Michael Foley has been forced to make a number of injury-enforced changes this week heading into this crucial clash with their Queensland rivals. In the forwards Wilhelm Steenkamp replaces Adam Coleman, Ian Prior and Zack Holmes take over from Alby Mathewson and Sias Ebersohn in the halves and the honey badger Nick Cummins re-joins the fray in place of Solomoni Rasolea.
Reds
Last weekend in Melbourne, the Reds were playing without either Will Genia or Quade Cooper for the first time in six years and as a result, they in fact started as underdogs. However, the absence of the teams’ most potent duo did little to halt a clinical Reds team led up front by Wallabies James Slipper and James Horwill. It was Horwill’s best game of the season without a shadow of the doubt as he played with more intensity, inherited a greater deal of leadership responsibility and in turn, played his heart out. Halfback Nick Frisby has bided his time on the bench behind Will Genia for the last two seasons, but he took the opportunity with both hands scoring two tries and led his troops around the field accurately. Unfortunately, Dom Shipperley suffered a sickening season-ending ankle injury, but his replacement Lachie Turner showed glimpses of the form that once made him a Wallaby and has been rewarded with a start this weekend. The Reds have a very youthful look to them, but will be riding high on confidence after a dominant display last weekend in Melbourne.
Prediction
It will be the last match of the season for the Force at home this weekend and they will want to put together a performance that their fans can celebrate long into the night. Was it a bad day at the office against the Blues or do the Force simply not have what it takes to play finals footy in 2014? For me it is the latter, and although they might beat the Reds at home, the Brumbies next week should be a bridge to far.
Predicted result: Undecided – could make legitimate arguments for either
Stormers ($1.66) vs Bulls ($2.25)
The Stormers host the Bulls at Newlands Stadium in Cape Town this weekend in what should be a highly confrontational battle. The Stormers have had yet another disappointing season, but they have turned it around over their last three games by beating the Force, Cheetahs and the table-topping Sharks. The Bulls were looking rudderless after their horrendous tour of Australasia, however they managed to win a few games in succession at Loftus before it all came unstuck against the lowly Lions in round 16.
Stormers
The Stormers will be out to avenge their May 10th loss to the Bulls this weekend, which was impressively their only loss during the month of May. After a lifeless start to the season, the Stormers began playing more expansively and actually used the versatile skill sets of their squad to good effect. The Stormers have had to contend with the biggest casualty ward of any team in the competition including the likes of Eben Etzebeth (lock), Captain Jean de Villiers and Damien de Allende all still nursing injuries. Fortunately, this weekend the Cape-based franchise will welcome the return of many of their stalwarts who haven’t had a lot of game time this season. These include Schalk Burger (flanker), Juan de Jong (inside centre), Sailosi Tagicakibau (outside centre), and Gio Aplon (wing) in the starting 15 and Tiaan Liebenberg (hooker), Louis Schreuder (halfback) on the bench. South African Under-20 and Sevens winger Seabelo Senatla also warms the pine and could make a potential debut for the blue and white hoops. Coach Alastair Coetzee has been able to select a much more complete team for this weekend’s match, which has produced many hard-fought and memorable encounters over the years an in turn, they go into the match as favourites. In late news, it appears that their rampaging number eight Duane Vermuelen will sit out of this clash, which would most likely see Burger pack down at the back of the scrum with Siya Kolisi coming into the starting fifteen.
Bulls
With the Bulls season realistically done and dusted, it would be fair to say that they have performed particularly well considering that they lost Springboks Pierre Spies and Arno Botha so early on in the season. They have still managed to put out a gigantic pack each week and Jacques Louis-Potgieter and Handré Pollard have breathed some life into the Bulls style of play with a much better running game in 2014. Coach Frans Ludeke has made four changes and a positional switch for the match this weekend. Werner Kruger has been drafted back into the front row alongside Dean Grayling and Callie Visagie with Victor Matfield (captain) and Paul Willemse selected in the second row. Jono Ross, Jacques Engelbrecht and Grant Hattingh form an imposing back row with Francois Hougaard and Handre Pollard selected in the halves. The backline remains experienced with Springbok centres Jan Serfontein and JJ Engelbrecht taking their place in the 12 and 13 jerseys respectively. The outside backs are comprised of Bjorn Basson, Akona Ndungane and Jurgen Visser, but the bench does look a bit light on experience and good potentially be their downfall late in the match.
Prediction
With both of these teams almost certainly out of the running for this year’s playoff picture, like many other matches this weekend, both teams should look to play with freedom. The Stormers have found some late season form and certainly won’t make it easy for the Bulls, but they’ll know their opposition will be searching for that all-important four-try bonus point, just in case something miraculous happens. Over the last 11 matches, the total score hasn’t surpassed 49 (second best was 43), but even in what isn’t looking like being the best weather for running rugby, there is a need to adopt an attacking mindset, so a few tries could be scored this weekend.
Predicted result: Stormers to win @ $1.66 – Sportsbet
Cheetahs ($3.20) vs Sharks ($1.36)
The always-entertaining Cheetahs will play their last game of the season at Free State Stadium on Saturday evening when the conference topping Sharks come to town. This is a big game for both teams considering a win would elevate the Cheetahs off the foot of the Super Rugby ladder and a victory would lift the Sharks to the top of the table, albeit, momentarily. The Cheetahs will be out to improve on their last outing where they were shutout (0 – 33) by a rejuvenised Stormers line up and the Sharks won’t look back at their round 16 clash with the Stormers with any fondness as it could well be the game that ‘ended’ their home-final aspirations.
Cheetahs
The Cheetahs certainly don’t deserve to be favourites for the wooden spoon in this year’s competition because they have entertained crowds with a great brand of rugby in 2014. They are a franchise that cannot compete financially against the bigger South African teams (Bulls, Sharks, Stormers) and often lose players once they have good seasons and they become noticed in the rugby world. Adriaan Strauss has been a huge part of the rise of Cheetahs rugby that saw them make the playoffs last season and his leadership, attitude and skill levels have seen him become a big part of Springbok rugby, behind Bismarck du Plessis of course. Unfortunately for the Cheetahs, it appears that the Bulls have poached him for next season and with Johan Goosen also departing to France, I won’t be surprised to see players like Willie le Roux, who is in world beating form and Cornal Hendricks leave Bloemfontein as well. Politics and money aside, the Cheetahs can score points, but their defense is as leaky as a plumber’s home taps. This is what makes their games so entertaining, obviously more so for fans than their coaching staff. Coach Naka Drotske has reinstated all of his Springboks that featured in the recent June Internationals into this week’s squad. The team selected will certainly give it to the Sharks this week and won’t take a backward step, but the loss of Heinrich Brussow at flanker may have been the final nail in this season’s coffin. With that being said, it is hard to ignore the form of Willie le Roux, a very gifted playmaker and ball runner and someone who will receive a lot of attention from the Sharks defense.
Sharks
The Sharks headed into this season with a lot of expectation given their talented roster and coaching panel. For the most part, they haven’t disappointed, although the Sharks appear to have blown the chance to host a Super Rugby Final in Durban. Jake White has named a new look Sharks outfit to take on the Cheetahs this weekend in Bloemfontein. Understandably, White has opted to rest Tendai Mtawarira completely, while Bismarck and Jannie du Plessis find themselves on the bench. It is a rare opportunity for Lourens Adriaanse, Kyle Cooper and Dale Chadwick, but given the amount of rugby the Springbok trio have played, it is probably a wise move. Anton Bresler returns to the second row alongside the newly capped Springbok Stephan Lewies, with Marcell Coetzee, Ryan Kankowski and Jean Deysel are all back in the side with the latter having served his suspension and been entrusted with the captaincy. Cobus Reinach and Tim Swiel form a young halves combination with Francois Steyn and S’bura Sithole a dangerous midfield combination. Lwazi Mvovo, JP Pietersen and SP Marais make up an astute back three. As a result of these changes, the Sharks possess one of the most experienced benches of all-time, but Jake White will be hoping they don’t have to chase too big a lead (if they are losing) or things could go very pear shaped for them and his decision to rest his stars will be questioned.
Prediction
The Sharks have players with big match temperament and they certainly won’t be taking the Cheetahs lightly this weekend. Bloemfontein isn’t an easy place to play and the Cheetahs have a number of game breakers including one of the Springboks best players in Willie le Roux. History states that the Sharks need to finish in the top two to go on and win the title and I can’t see them letting that opportunity slip this weekend, but it will be a lot closer than most would suggest and their bench will be influential in this fixture.
Predicted result: Sharks to win @ $1.36 – Sportingbet
Waratahs ($1.30) vs Highlanders ($3.60)
The Waratahs encounter with the Highlanders in Sydney this weekend will be season defining given that a win would cement themselves at the top of the Super Rugby latter and a loss would open up the door for the Sharks. Last weekend, the Waratahs completely outclassed an understrength Brumbies line up at ANZ Stadium, whereas the Highlanders with the help of their in-form All Blacks overturned last year’s Champions, the Chiefs in Dunedin.
Waratahs
The Waratahs have now won their last five matches in succession and are certainly the form team in the competition and I truly believe if they win this weekend, they will come very close to winning the competition. With a number of their players gaining more confidence from their inclusion in the Wallabies demolition of France in June, the Waratahs juggernaut is starting to roll and it is going to take an almighty performance to stop them. I believe they are the best side on paper in the competition and also one of the most balanced with a huge forward pack, two solid playmakers in Bernard Foley and Kurtley Beale and players like Adam Ashley-Cooper and the world’s best fullback Israel Folau. Rugby union has taken a back step in Sydney over the past decade given the Waratahs failure to deliver the city any silverware, but one gets the feeling that there is a aura building in this squad and Coach Michael Cheika has played a huge part in rebuilding what was a broken franchise. Last weekend’s season ending knee injury to captain Dave Dennis did sour their impressive win, but former Wallaby Stephen Hoiles steps in for his second start of the season in the only change to the starting 15 to face the Highlanders.
Highlanders
The Highlanders of last year and the Highlanders of this season couldn’t be two more different teams. Although the personnel hasn’t changed a whole lot, the Highlander’s All Blacks have really stepped up and their influence and leadership has clearly rubbed off on the youngsters in their squad. Like the Crusaders, the Highlanders fate is in their own hands and a win this weekend will setup a mighty showdown next weekend against the men from Christchurch to decide the New Zealand Conference champions. Their game is situated around gaining parity at the set piece with their opposition and using Aaron Smith and Lima Sopoaga to unleash the likes of Patrick Osborne, Malakai Fekitoa and Ben Smith out wide. The Highlanders have proved they now have the resolute defense to back up their offensive efficiency and they are a great advertisement for the game. Coach Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown have extended their stays in New Zealand’s south island and this only bodes well for the future. They have also have the comfort of being able to name the same line up to battle the mighty Waratahs on Sunday in Sydney – a match that will attract a lot of attention from fans and other Super Rugby teams alike (e.g. the Sharks).
Prediction
Both the Highlanders and the Waratahs have destiny in their own hands – something that can be considered a luxury in this competition. A big win by the Waratahs would all but lock away a final series in Sydney and a win to the Highlanders would see them most likely cement a place in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It will be a fascinating contest with game breakers across the park, but the Waratahs experience and power in the pack will lay the platform for their backs and it should be too much of an ask for a Highlanders eight that has performed well above their weight this season.
Predicted result: Waratahs to win @ $1.30 – Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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