After 125 games and 10,000 minutes of rugby, it all comes down to the grand final in Sydney on Saturday evening, when we will see a new champion crowded after a two-year dominance by the Chiefs. The best provincial union in Australia, the Waratahs will face the seven-time Champions and current New Zealand Conference winners, the Crusaders in what is set up to be a classic final. The Waratahs have finally cashed in on their potential and return to Super Rugby’s main event for the third time in their history, having lost both previous tournament deciders to the Crusaders in 2005 and 2008. It has been a riveting season that has seen a plethora of tries scored and some ferocious defensive play and regardless of the outcome this weekend, Super Rugby has once again delivered.
Last weekend, my best bets went two and two and the season still remains a profitable one after picking the three Conference winners in the pre-season futures markets. There is still an abundance of rugby left in 2014, and I am hoping to be back for The Rugby Championship, the ITM Cup and the ARC Championship all starting in just a couple of weeks. As always it was a pleasure catching up with a few of you on Twitter this season, but for the newcomers, don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, last minute plays, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for fascinating final weekend of Super Rugby.
Best Bet 1: Crusaders +2.0 @ $1.90 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: Tri Bet – Either team by 7 points or less @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
Waratahs ($1.80) vs Crusaders ($2.05)
ANZ Stadium in Sydney has been the home to many sporting extravaganzas over the years including the Sydney Olympics, Rugby league Grand Finals and breathtaking State of Origin matches. This weekend, the stadium will play host to it’s first ever Super Rugby Final. The Waratahs will embark on their last crusade against the men from Christchurch, a team that has derailed them so often in the past, making this a potential fairy-tale in waiting. Both the Waratahs and the Crusaders were clinical last weekend, somewhat easily disposing of the Brumbies and the Sharks and based on those displays, it makes sense that the two best attacking and defensive teams meet in the competition decider.
Waratahs
Thus far, the Waratahs have put together one of the most clinical seasons of Super Rugby ever. The Sydney-siders have come along way from their public intervention forums held only a few years ago when the club was in crisis and they are now on the cusp of delivering one of the games greatest rewards to their expectant fans. Championship teams are built on a watertight defence, effective breakdown techniques, clinical back line play and an astute kicking game, all of which the ‘Tahs have mastered this year. Defensively, the Waratahs have been the strongest team this year, only conceding an average of 17 points per game. At the breakdowns, Michael Hooper has been a menace and has been firmly by the rest of the bulk up front to ensure clean service for halfback Nick Phipps. From an attacking standpoint, the Waratahs have scored the most tries in the competition (58 in 17 games – average of 3.4/game), made the most carries, which signifies that they are patient and have good ball retention skills, made the most metres (8824), and created the most offloads (244), which has led to the most clean line breaks (164). Israel Folau is the competition’s leading try scorer having dotted down 12 times, with Kurtley Beale the competition’s leading carrier with 225 throughout the course of the season. Beale’s return to form has been great to watch given that he goes looking for the ball and always looks a threat. Bernard Foley has been the fulcrum for the Waratahs attack and someone that has really come out of the shadows of Quade Cooper this year making himself the incumbent fly half in the Wallabies. He continues to go from strength to strength and his matchup with Colin Slade and Dan Carter this week, will be worth the price of admission alone.
Coach Michael Cheika has named an unchanged line up for the Final this weekend, something he has been fortunate to do consistently this season. This batch of starters have shown that with ample amounts of game time, combinations gel and the Waratahs are now reaping those rewards, albeit their injury ward hasn’t been as bad as some of their opponents. Coach Cheika has the luxury of selecting an international forward pack (seven Wallabies and a Springbok) and a back line where six of the seven players have International Test match experience. It is a formidable line up, but one that will certainly be tested by a team that has been there and done it before, seven times. The Waratahs will know that the Crusaders are going to look to target them up front at the set piece and if there is a chink in their armour, it is in the lineouts. The loss of Captain Dave Dennis to injury has limited their options in the lineout, given that Will Skelton and Wycliff Palu are simply too big to lift and Michael Hooper simply doesn’t have the height. At scrum time, the Waratahs have faired reasonably this season, but for the first time in a few weeks they will be confronted by a team that has just as much size as they do. Looking at the bench, besides Will Skelton, I wouldn’t be confident throwing the majority of them into the cauldron if the game is on the line. However, fortunately for the ‘Tahs, their starters have done all the hard work and virtually won them the game before they have had to enter the fray throughout the course of this season.
Crusaders
Much like the All Blacks, the Crusaders have an aura that has been developed over many years of consistent and successful rugby franchise, both on and off the field. After the season the Waratahs have had, very few teams would travel to Sydney going in as just a one-point underdog, and tag the Crusaders will be more than happy to adopt. As I have harped on many times before, the Crusaders have been the most powerful Super Rugby team over the competition’s tenure with seven trophies sitting in their Christchurch cabinet. They are a team that has been faced with adversity, frequent sabbaticals and just generally being the team with the target on their heads. However, like a true champion side does, they have taken it in their stride and continued to excel at this level. Additionally, new talent is always being unearthed and nurtured and their poster boys like McCaw, Read and Carter and have stayed loyal to their club, despite being thrown blank cheques from their local and overseas counterparts.
Last weekend, the Crusaders completely outclassed the Sharks in every aspect of the game. Their forwards were on song in the scrums and the lineouts, the breakdown battle and collision zone was won by the home team and their backs feasted on aimless kicking, with the Crusaders dotting down five times, without conceding any maximums. Unsurprisingly, it reeked of All-Black rugby, and naturally they won convincingly. One thing the Crusaders have always been good at is their ability to change game plans during a match to combat any opposition dominance. Coach Todd Blackadder was basically handed a silver platter of personnel when he took over the reins in Christchurch a few years ago and very rarely have they been put to the sword like they did to the Sharks last weekend. What will be interesting to watch is to see if they will be able to dominate up front and sustain that pressure for the full 80 minutes in Sydney against a team firing on all cylinders.
Coach Blackadder has also named an unchanged line up for this weekend’s huge clash. Just to recap, the front row consists of Wyatt Crockett, Corey Flynn and Owen Franks, with the locking pair behind them being Dominic Bird and Sam Whitelock. In the back row, Richie McCaw retains the blindside jersey, alongside breakdown threat Matt Todd and the reigning IRB Player of the Year Kieran Read. It is an impressive pack that all have International experience. The visitors know how important the set pieces will be and Blackadder appears to have the right ingredients to cause the Waratahs a problem or two, especially with Craig Joubert refereeing this fixture. In the backs, Andy Ellis will partner Colin Slade in the halves, with Dan Carter and the impressive Ryan Crotty named as the centre pairing. Nemani Nadolo will most likely receive the Rookie of the Year award having scored 11 tries in his breakthrough season. Keiron Fonotia has been solid on the right wing and Israel Dagg has timed his run perfectly this season after playing his best game of the season last weekend against the Sharks. Due to various injuries during the season, most of the members sitting on the bench this weekend have had starting appearances for the Crusaders this year. I expect the game to come down to what happens in the last 20 minutes, so the impact of the replacements could very well prove to be the difference at Homebush.
Prediction
The Waratahs have been simply sublime this season, in particular at home, where they remain undefeated after wrapping up comprehensive victories over some very good teams. The Crusaders started the season slowly, but once the red dragon awoke, things clicked into gear quickly and they stormed home to reach their 11th Super Rugby Final. This matchup has the same feel as the 2011 version of the competition, when the Crusaders travelled to Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane and the Reds came away with a narrow victory.
The Waratahs will be hyped up and ready for this match, but it is hard to ignore the Waratahs poor record against the Crusaders, having lost the last 11 matches played between these two heavyweights. Additionally, the Crusaders are one of only two teams (the other being the Bulls) to win a title away from home, which has me leaning towards the men from Christchurch. The Waratahs have world beaters in Michael Hooper and Israel Folau, however, the Crusaders possess two former IRB Players of the Year and the reigning medal recipient and all three of these players could secure the clubs 8th Super Rugby trophy on Saturday night in what will be a thrilling grand finale to an outstanding season of Super Rugby.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win an arm-wrestle @ $2.05 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Crusaders +2.0 @ $1.90 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: Tri Bet – Either team by 7 points or less @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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