The Rugby World Cup Final is on our doorstep and what better way than to celebrate the great game with a match between the greatest Test match team of all-time, New Zealand, and the Wallabies, a team that has developed and progressed further than any other team in International rugby over the last twelve months. The All Blacks have the wood over the Wallabies in the Bledisloe Cup, but the William Webb-Ellis trophy is something that is completely different. It is a pressure-cooker situation that is often decided by a moment of brilliance or a lapse in concentration. New Zealand find themselves in this position having outmuscled and outsmarted the Springboks last weekend 20 – 18 in the first semi-final, followed by the Wallabies being too strong for the Pumas 29 – 15. This match will most likely be the most watched Rugby World Cup Final of all time and there are a number of the games greats on show. A plethora of players including Kevin Mealamu, Richie McCaw, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith etc. will be playing their last matches and what a fitting occasion to do it. Rugby is a religion in New Zealand and the nation’s short and long-term mood really depends on them winning on Saturday night. There is a lot of pressure on the reining Champions, but they have shown time and time again that they can cope. There is a new belief instilled in the Wallabies under the guidance of Michael Cheika and they too will believe that Stephen Moore will raise ‘Bill’ coming 6pm local time on Saturday.
Front a betting standpoint, the semi-finals continued a positive trend with the drop goal and the yellow card proving a hit. As mentioned last week, another Futures play (all southern-hemisphere final) has come off as well at odds of $4.33. This weekend, I have a number of tips, all of which I am confident in, however, anything can happen in a Rugby World Cup Final, as we witnessed four years ago when the French almost upset the All Blacks at Eden Park. It has been a pleasure writing for you and sharing my knowledge on the game and I will report my RWC statistics next week. Follow me on twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for the best Rugby World Cup Final yet.
New Zealand vs South Africa:
Best Bet 1: New Zealand 1-12 @ 2.50 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: Total Team Points – Under 42.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.com.au
Best Bet 3: Will there be a drop goal – Yes @ $2.75 – William Hill
New Zealand ($1.42) vs Australia ($3.00)
Kick-off: Sunday – 02:00am (AEDT)
New Zealand and Australia will battle it out for Rugby World Cup supremacy when they face off in the Final at Twickenham in London on Saturday night. The All Blacks defeated a ‘brave’ Springboks outfit last weekend 20 – 18 in an extremely tense and physical battle. The Wallabies also came up trumps with a 29 – 15 victory over the Pumas in a match that wasn’t short on running rugby. All time, the All Blacks have a 68% win rate over the Wallabies with an average winning margin of 20 – 14. This is inline with the record between these two nations since the last Rugby World Cup, as the All Blacks have won 8 of the 11 matches played, which include two draws. The sole victory occurred earlier this season when Australia claimed The Rugby Championship with a 27 – 19 victory in Sydney.
New Zealand Team:
Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Ben Smith
Reserves: Kevin Mealamu, Ben Franks, Charlie Faumauina, Victor Vito, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams
Comment: New Zealand coach Steve Hansen has named an unchanged lineup for this matchup. The only player under an injury-cloud is winger Nehe Milner-Skudder, but he passed a late fitness test to be selected.
Australia Team:
Scott Sio, Stephen Moore, Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Rob Simmons, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Will Genia, Bernard Foley, Drew Mitchell, Matt Giteau, Tevita Kuridrani, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau
Reserves: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Greg Holmes, Dean Mumm, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua, Kurtley Beale
Comment: The only change made by Michael Cheika is bringing Scott Sio back into the front row, which shifts James Slipper to the bench. This definitely strengthens the Wallabies scrum, an area which will be a key focus at Twickenham.
Unit Match-ups:
Front Row: Moody | Coles | Franks vs Sio | Moore | Kepu
Comment: Twelve months ago, this matchup would be very one-sided, however, the Wallabies scrum and front row has developed into a powerful combination in it’s own right, under the tutelage of former Argentinian hooker Mario Ledesma. The loss of Tony Woodcock after the quarterfinal was a big blow for the AB’s, as he provides so much stability. Dane Coles and Stephen Moore are two different players, with Coles having the edge in open-space, whereas Moore would have the advantage in the confrontational battle. Both teams were put under pressure against the Springboks and the Pumas last week and I do believe they are hard to split. It could well come down to the interpretation of referee Nigel Owens.
Edge: Even
Second Row: Retallick | Whitelock vs Douglas | Simmons
Comment: Retallick and Whitelock are the best locking combination in the world without doubt and they proved this against the up-and-coming Springbok pairing of Etzebeth and de Jager last week. They both have the ability to mix up their game, dependent on the situation. Both can score exceptional tries, but they don’t shirk the tough stuff when it comes to securing or disrupting ball at the breakdown. Kane Douglas has been a huge inclusion for Michael Cheika and the Reds will benefit from his services and partnership with Rob Simmons next year. The Wallabies lineout has been one of their only weaknesses so far and they will need to ensure they win their own ball and poach a couple of the AB’s throws as well or they might find themselves pinned in their own half, as the Springboks were.
Edge: New Zealand
Back Row: Kaino | McCaw | Read v Fardy | Hooper | Pocock
Comment: The back row has been an area of strength for New Zealand since day dot and they field three extremely experienced players. McCaw’s role at the breakdown has changed overtime from being a poacher to a ‘space-taker’, which allows other players to drive in over the ball. Kieran Read has had a quiet RWC, but he is too good of a player not to have an impact on this match. Scott Fardy has been the unsung hero for the Wallabies and the Brumbies over the past twelve months. He is tough as nails, has a huge motor and isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty without recognition. Hooper is a leader in his own right and his acceleration saves the Wallabies from situations turning ugly before they even occur. David Pocock and my World Rugby player of the year and player of the tournament, has shown tremendous courage and dedication to come back from two knee reconstructions, to be playing his best rugby. He is built for Test match rugby and thrives in matches that are won around the battle of the breakdown. There is great balance amongst both back rows, but on recent form, the dynamic Wallabies back row get the edge here.
Edge: Australia
Halves: Smith | Carter v Genia | Foley
Comment: In my opinion, Aaron Smith is the world’s best halfback. He has a slick pass, always gets to the breakdown on time, is a great defensive organiser and knows when to run, pass or kick. He has learned a lot from his partner-in-crime Dan Carter about game management and expect both of them to plug the corners on Saturday night. There was a lot of conjecture as to whether or not Carter should be in the All Blacks squad, but as the class of the man, he has taken his game to another level and provides a platform for the players inside and outside of him to thrive. I doubt he will ever be surpassed as World Rugby’s leading point-scorer, as he currently sits on 1,579, or as the games greatest fly-half. He is a complete rugby player. Looking at Genia and Foley, the latter is starting to find some form after a couple injury-hampered seasons of Super Rugby. Genia at his best is on par with Aaron Smith, but we haven’t seen it for some time and I believe he needs to get rid of the ball quicker, rather than always taking a step. Bernard Foley has been given the ‘ice man’ tag and could well be the savior in Michael Cheika’s career. If he hadn’t made the kick against the Crusaders in the 2014 Super Rugby Final or the kick against Scotland, Australian rugby could be in a fairly different state. He has the ability to perform on the highest stage and pressure doesn’t seem to affect him. He will have a lot of big bodies coming down his channel and hopefully this doesn’t impact his attacking game.
Edge: New Zealand
Centres: Nonu | Smith v Giteau | Kuridrani
Comment: I doubt we will ever see another centre pairing like Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith as well. They hold the world record for Test matches as a combination, but they have thrived as a result of playing Super Rugby together for so many years. Ma’a Nonu brings the power and the physicality and more recently a kicking game, whereas Conrad Smith is the fittest man in the team, a brilliant defensive organiser and someone who can just glide through defenses. Giteau and Kuridrani are a relatively new combination and are balanced in terms of ages, with Giteau having done most things in rugby and Kuridrani still to thrive on the International stage. Michael Cheika’s luring of Giteau back to Australian rugby has proved to be a masterstroke and it is a good story for Australian rugby, after the debacle with Robbie Deans. I believe Kuridrani is going to be one of the Wallabies best moving forwards, with his size (1.92 | 102kg) and speed being a handful for anyone. However, he still has some development to go and Nonu and Smith will be plotting a way to generate front-foot ball through their channel at Twickenham.
Edge: New Zealand
Outside Backs: Savea | Milner-Skudder | Smith v Mitchell | Ashley-Cooper | Folau
Comment: This is going to be a mouth-watering battle. Julian ‘the bus’ Savea has found his feet in recent weeks and is starting to bulldoze his way over players again. He has scored 38 tries from 40 matches, which is an incredible strike rate in the modern game. Nehe Milner-Skudder has been the breakthrough player of the year, firstly at the Hurricanes and now at the All Blacks. His ability to bust through tackles with his nifty footwork provides the All Blacks with quality front-foot ball nine times out of ten. Ben Smith, is everything you want in a fullback. Solid in defence, brilliant on attack and safe under the high-ball. Looking at the Wallabies trio, Drew Mitchell has been in superb form since coming back from Toulon. He has scored 14 tries and is one try off of equaling Bryan Habana and Jonah Lomu for most tries in a RWC career. I believe his run down the left wing, in which he cut back a beat a number of defenders with ease before offloading to Adam Ashley-Cooper was the single best run of the RWC to date. Ashley-Cooper, the semi-final hat-trick hero has been Australia’s most reliable for a number of seasons and is one of the first names on Cheika’s team sheet every week. Israel Folau has not been at his best this RWC and is clearly struggling with an ankle injury. To see him try and put grubber-kicks through the line last week instead of running into or around contact was baffling, but an indication that he’s not quite right. In saying that, you never doubt a wounded-warrior and he is the type of player that could turn the Rugby World Cup Final on it’s head. In saying that, the X-factor of the All Blacks gives them a narrow edge.
Edge: New Zealand
Overall Unit Rating:
New Zealand – 4
Australia – 1
Even – 1
Prediction:
The stage is set. The two best teams in the competition and the game at present, are ready to faceoff at the home of world rugby, under the control of the world’s best rugby referee Welshman Nigel Owens. Weather forecasters predict sound conditions for this match, which is a relief given the spectacle that we have before us. Every team that has won the Rugby World Cup to date, has done so by winning every match. That trend will continue this weekend given that both teams have a lot of momentum cruising through the tournament undefeated. Both teams come into this match with very experienced line-ups, with the All Blacks having 1,339 caps to their names. That is an average of 58 Test matches of experience per player – certainly something that is vital in a RWC Final. The Wallabies aren’t far behind that with 1,205 caps at an average of 52 Test matches per player.
No team has ever defended a Rugby World Cup. The All Blacks have never won the Rugby World Cup away from home. The Wallabies have never lost a Rugby World Cup in the British Isles. No team that has ever won the Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship (Australia) have ever gone onto win the Rugby World Cup. There are a lot of conflicting statistics and trends that will be displaced on Saturday night and although I think the Wallabies will begin the process of ‘the changing of the guard’ in the near future, this is the All Black’s match to lose and it’s hard to bet against a team that has won 47 of their last 52 matches (with two draws) since the last Rugby World Cup, with so much experience and six of their best playing in their farewell match.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win in a nail-biter @ $1.42 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: New Zealand 1-12 (vs Australia) @ 2.50 – Bet365
Reasoning: I can’t see either team blowing each other off the park and if they do, it would come as a real surprise. They are quite evenly matched and discipline will play a huge part in determining the outcome of this match. Given that it is a Final, both teams will be on edge and the score will most likely go up in 3’s as oppose to 5 and 2’s.
Best Bet 2: Total Team Points – Under 42.5 @ $1.87 – Tab.com.au
Reasoning: Firstly, from seven Rugby World Cup Finals today date, no match has ever eclipsed the 50-point mark. In 2007, the Springboks edged England 15 – 6 (21 points) and in New Zealand the All Blacks beat France 8 – 7 (15 points). Both teams have the best attacking players in the world, but at the same time you would argue that their defenses have been a huge part of what has got them to the Final. The All Blacks have only conceded an average of 13.33 points per game. The Wallabies have only conceded slightly more at an average of 14 points per game. That is a buffer of 15 points and given the enormity of the occasion, I am happy to take this market.
Best Bet 3: Will there be a drop goal – Yes @ $2.75 – William Hill
Reasoning: This will be a tough match and both teams will take the three points when on offer. Dan Carter has shown his whole career that he is very capable of scoring drop goals and expect Bernard Foley to get into the pocket this week as well. This is a market that always works well in knock-out rugby.
