Rugby World Cup 2015 – Week 1 Preview

After four long years of waiting, the Rugby World Cup kicks off on Friday night (early Saturday morning Australian time) at home of rugby, Twickenham in London. It is competition that features the best 20 rugby playing nations on earth all vying to raise the William Webb Ellis trophy on October 31. The first RWC took place in New Zealand in 1987, which was won by the home team and since then Australia (1991 + 1999), South Africa (1995 + 2007) and England (2003) have had the honours of raising ‘Bill’. In 2011, under huge pressure and a monumental flyhalf injury crisis, New Zealand captured the hearts of their nation by beating France 8-7, but no team has ever retained the title of being world champions.

The Southern Hemisphere nations have dominated this competition, however, in northern hemisphere conditions where weather plays a part, scrums are the focus and kicking penalty goals is very important, I truly believe there are five teams that can win it on their day (New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, England, Ireland). The first week of action sees all the top teams play, except Australia who get their campaign underway next Wednesday night against Fiji. The feature match of the round is definitely New Zealand vs Argentina on Sunday night, but it will be good to keep an eye on how teams approach the first round of the competition.

The Rugby World Cup is where dreams are realised and nightmares are made. Follow me on twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating tournament in England.

Best Bet 1: Tonga -10.5 (vs Georgia) @ $1.92 – Luxbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 2: Ireland -39.0 (vs Canada) @ $2.00 – Bet365 (early twitter play)
Best Bet 3: South Africa -43.5 (vs Japan) @ $1.92 – Luxbet (early twitter play)
Best Bet 4: Samoa -16.0 (vs USA) @ $1.83 – Ladbrokes

More plays might be posted on twitter closer to kick-off dependent on weather and line movements

Part 2 of the preview will be released on Saturday, 19 September

England ($1.02) vs Fiji ($21.00)

Kick-off: Saturday – 5:00am (AEDT)

England will kick off proceedings on Friday night (Saturday morning Australian time) at Twickenham against the Flying Fijians, in what is expected to be a classic Rugby World Cup opener. The English head into the tournament with mixed form having won and lost matches to France and they also beat Ireland in recent weeks. The Fijians will be buoyed by the fact that they have a full squad to choose from and they wrapped up preparations with a convincing 47 – 18 victory over the hapless Canadians two weeks ago. Surprisingly, these two teams have only met on five occasions, with England winning all of them, including the most recent outing at Twickenham in 2012 (54 – 12).

England Team: 

Joe Marler, Tom Youngs, Dan Cole, Courtney Lawes, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood, Chris Robshaw (Captain), Ben Morgan, Ben Youngs, George Ford, Jonny May, Brad Barritt, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson, Mike Brown
Reserves: Rob Webber, Mako Vunipola, Kieran Brookes, Joe Launchbury, Billy Vunipola, Richard Wigglesworth, Owen Farrell, Sam Burgess

Fiji Team:

Campese Ma’afu, Sunia Koto, Manasa Saulo, Api Ratuniyarawa, Leone Nakarawa, Dominiko Waqaniburotu, Akapusi Qera (Captain), Sakiusa Masi, Niko Matawalu, Ben Volavola, Nemani Nadolo, Gabby Lovobalavu, Vereniki Goneva, Waisea Nayacalevu, Metuisela Talebula
Reserves: Talemaitoga Tuapati, Peni Ravai, Isei Colati, Tevita Cavubati, Peceli Yato, Nemia Kenatale, Josh Matavesi, Asaeli Tikoirotuma

Prediction: 

There is a lot of hype and emotion surrounding this match with home fans wanting England to win and I have no doubts the rest of the rugby loving world will be cheering on Fiji. The hosts are justifiable favourites in this match, but I am not quite sold on where they are currently at. Their scrum was decimated by France, their line out is shaky, their backs are young and the combinations are inexperienced. They are lacking some game-breakers and although winger Anthony Watson is a player that could well take this competition by storm, I wouldn’t put my house on it, just yet. Fiji are renowned for their attacking style and ability to break the line from no where, whereas the home team are more likely to take a more conservative approach to the game and look to starve the Fijians of possession and territory. England halfback Ben Youngs will be celebrating his 50th appearance for his country, but the focus will well and truly be on getting the all-important win. Fijian coach John McKee has named his strongest team for the RWC opener and his players will be looking to keep the crowd quiet on Friday night. Although, I am confident England will win, with the expected wet weather leaning things for in their favour, I truly believe New Zealand, Australia and South Africa would’ve been given more of a handicap than -26.5 against Fiji. I will stay away from this one, but keep an eye out on twitter for some last minute plays.

Predicted result: England to win @ $1.02 – Bet365

Tonga ($1.20) vs Georgia ($4.60)

Kick-off: Saturday – 21:00 (AEDT)

Kingsholm Stadium in Gloucester will host Tonga and Georgia on Saturday in a match that opens proceedings in Pool C. Tonga is currently ranked 11 and Georgia 16 in the World Rugby rankings and they have met each other on three occasions, with the most recent encounter seeing the Tongans victorious 23 – 9 in Tibilisi, Georgia last season. The score line somewhat flattered the visitors on that occasions as Georgia led at the break, but scrumhalf Taniela Moa was instrumental scoring a brace of tries late in the second half.

Tonga Team: 

T Mailau, V Taione, H Aulika, T Lokotui, S Mafi, S Kalamfoni, N Latu (captain), V Ma’afu, S Takulua, K Morath, F Vainikolo, S Piutau, V Helu, T Veainu, V Lilo
Reserves: P Ngauamo, A Taumalolo, S Puafisi, H T-Pole, J Ram, S Fisilau, L Fosita, S Piukala

Georgia Team:

M Nariashvili, J Bregvadze, D Zirakashvili, G Nemsadze, K Mikautadze, G Tkhilashvili, V Kolelishvili, M Gorgodze (captain), V Lobhanidze, L Malaguradze, G Aptsiauri, G Aptsiauri, M Sharikadze, D Kacharava, T Mchedlidze, M Kvirikashvili
Reserves: S Mamukashvili, K Asieshvili, L Chilachava, L Datunashvili, S Sutiashvili, G Begadze, G Pruidze, M Giorgadze

Prediction: 

This match in Gloucester is going to be a confrontational battle. The South Sea Islanders are known for their physicality and in recent years Georgia has really placed an emphasis on their forwards play, especially at scrum time. Both teams have players that ply their trade in the northern hemisphere so they will be used to conditions. If Tonga can get parity at scrum time through the likes of Tevita Mailau, Epi Taione and Halani Aulika,  I can see their explosive backs such as Fetu Vainikolo, Siale Piutau and Telusa Veainu running Georgia off their feet and taking care of the handicap in the process.

Predicted result: Tonga to win @ $1.20 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: Tonga -10.5 (vs Georgia) @ $1.92 – Luxbet (early twitter play)

Ireland ($1.01) vs Canada ($67.00)

Kick-off: Saturday – 23:30 (AEDT)

The second match on Saturday sees the reigning RBS 6 Nations champions Ireland face Canada at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. The Irish head into this campaign with mixed form having drawn their warm-up series with Wales with one victory each before going down to England by eight points in their final outing before this event. Canada have fallen by the wayside in 2015, having lost matches to Japan, Tonga, Samoa, the USA (x2) and Fiji, with only the one victory coming against Georgia by a solitary point. These two teams have played on six occasions, with Ireland winning five of them by comfortable margins and one draw in 2000.

Ireland Team: 

Jack McGrath, Rory Best, Mike Ross, Iain Henderson, Paul O’Connell (Captain), Peter O’Mahoney, Sean O’Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Conor Murray, Jonathan Sexton, Keith Earls, Luke Fitzgerald, Jared Payne, Dave Kearney, Rob Kearney
Reserves: Sean Cronin, Cian Healy, Nathan White, Donnacha Ryan, Chris Henry, Eoin Reddan, Ian Madigan, Simon Zebo

Canada Team:

Hubert Buydens, Ray Barkwill, Doug Wooldridge, Brett Beukeboom, Jamie Cudmore (captain), Kyle Gilmour, John Moonlight, Aaron Carpenter, Gordon McRorie, Nathan Hirayama, DTH van der Merwe, Nick Blevins, Ciaran Hearn, Jeff Hassler, Matt Evans
Reserves: Benoit Piffero, Djustice Sears-Duru, Andrew Tiedemann, Jebb Sinclair, Richard Thorpe, Phil Mack, Liam Underwood, Conor Trainor

Prediction: 

Only a few weeks ago, Ireland found themselves as the second best team in the world in terms of World Rugby rankings, however, a couple of defeats in the warmup matches saw them drop to sixth place. To be elevated to second place reiterates how consistent Ireland has been over the past few years and they’ll want to go at least one better than their quarterfinal exit in New Zealand four years ago. As aforementioned, Canada are struggling at present and their development in Sevens hasn’t transferred to the 15-man arena. They have had an ordinary year and will well and truly be up against it in Cardiff on Saturday. The most recent match between these two teams took place in Toronto in 2013, with Ireland winning 40 – 14 having fielded a somewhat experimental line up. Under the tutelage of Joe Schmidt, Ireland will be hungry to get off to a good start and they should be able to easily eclipse the handicap to sound a warning to the rivals in their pool.

Predicted result: Ireland to win @ $1.00 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 2: Ireland -39.0 (vs Canada) @ $2.00 – Bet365 (early twitter play)

South Africa ($1.00) vs Japan ($81.00)

Kick-off: Sunday – 01:45 (AEDT)

One of the tournament favourites, South Africa kick off their RWC campaign with a clash against the Asian champions Japan at the Brighton Community Stadium in Brighton early on Sunday morning. The Springboks have had mixed results in 2015 having finished with the wooden spoon in The Rugby Championship, but they will be searching for early momentum against the Japanese. Japan have also had an indifferent year, however, lead up wins against Uruguay (x2) and Georgia will have given them some confidence. Interestingly, these two teams have never faced each other, but both teams would’ve watched enough footage to know what to expect on Saturday evening (local time).

South Africa Team: 

Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis, Lood de Jager, Victor Matfield, François Louw, Willem Alberts, Schalk Burger, Ruan Pienaar, Pat Lambie, Lwazi Mvovo, Jean de Villiers (Captain), Jesse Kriel, Bryan Habana, Zane Kirchner
Reserves: Adriaan Strauss, Trevor Nyakane, Coenie Oosthuizen, Pieter Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Fourie du Preez, Handre Pollard, JP Pietersen

Japan Team:

Masataka Mikami, Shota Horie, Kensuke Hatakeyama, Luke Thompson, Hitoshi Ono, Michael Leitch (captain), Michael Broadhurst, Hendrik Tui, Fumiaki Tanaka, Kosei Ono, Kotaro Matsushima, Craig Wing, Male Sa’u,  Akihito Yamada, Ayumu Goromaru
Reserves: Takeshi Kizu, Keita Inagaki, Hiroshi Yamashita, Shinya Makabe, Amanaki Mafi, Atsushi Hiwasa, Harumichi Tatekawa, Karne Hesketh

Prediction: 

Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer has named their most experienced Test match line-up in history ahead of their match against Japan on Sunday. The pack is extremely strong, both at set piece, in the tight and the loose. The halves combination of Pienaar and Lambie are under pressure from the likes of du Preez and Pollard and Damien de Allende, a future Springbok star has been ousted from the match day 23 for captain Jean de Villiers. There is a lot pace to burn on the wings with Lwazi Mvovo and Bryan Habana and Zane Kirchner gets an opportunity in familiar northern hemisphere conditions at fullback.
Japan are an extremely well coached team that do the basics well. Eddie Jones has won a World Cup (South Africa in 2007) and coached Australia to the final in 2003 so he certainly knows what he is doing. The lack of size in their squad means that they need to be well organised, tackle low and play the game at a fast pace. It’s something that they do well against tier two nations, but the Springboks are a different kettle of fish. I don’t think South Africa’s results in 2015 have been a fair reflection of their ability and the team will want to get off to a fast start in England. Although I see the Springboks being slightly rusty, they should pull away and win fairly comfortably, especially if they don’t get sucked into an all-out attack approach.

Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.00 – Sportingbet

Best Bet 3: South Africa -43.5 (vs Japan) @ $1.92 – Luxbet (early twitter play)

France ($1.08) vs Italy ($8.50)

Kick-off: Sunday – 05:00 (AEDT)

Two RBS 6 Nations rivals, France and Italy will round out Pool C action early on Sunday morning when they clash at Twickenham, the home of world rugby. France played three matches in their warmup period, sharing a two-match series with England, before beating Scotland 19 – 16 in a dour encounter. Italy come into this tournament with very little momentum having only won one of their eight matches this year, a clash against Scotland in February earlier this year. To make matters worse, France won the RBS 6 Nations clash in Italy 29 – 0 in March.

France Team:

Eddy Ben Arous, Guilhem Guirado, Rabah Slimani, Pascal Pape (Captain), Yoann Maestri, Thierry Dusautoir, Damien Chouly, Louis Picamoles, Sebastian Tillous-Borde, Frederic Michalak, Noa Nakaitaci, Alexandre Dumoulin, Mathieu Bastereaud, Yoann Huget, Scott Spedding

Reserves: Benjamin Kayser, Vincent Debaty, Nicolas Mas, Alexandre Flanquart, Bernard le Roux, Morgan Parra, Remi Tales, Gael Fickou

Italy Team:

Matias Aguero, Leonardo Ghiraldini (Captain), Martin Castrogiovanni, Quintin Geldenhuys, Joshua Furno, Alessandro Zanni, Francesco Minto, Samuela Vunisa, Edoardo Gori, Tomasso Allan, Giovanbattista Venditti, Andrew Masi,  Michele Campagnaro, Leonardo Sarto, Luke McLean

Reserves: Andrea Manici, Michele Rizzo, Lorenzo Cittadini, Valerio Bernabo, Simone Favaro, Guglielmo Palazzano, Carlo Canna, Enrico Bacchin

Prediction: 

Les Bleus and the Azzurri are two teams that are very unpredictable, but more so the French. They have shown they have what it takes at this level on a number of occasions, but they also have this ability to just lose all structure and composure which cost them at the last RWC in New Zealand against Tonga. They have a strong scrum that they will look to utilise and an exciting backline that excels with front foot ball. Italy also have a strong scrum, however, with captain Sergio Parisse ruled out of this match, you all but rule out Italy’s chances as well. It is clear that coach Jacques Brunel isn’t quite sure his best 15 is and I see France winning the all important one percenters in London to score a double digit victory.

Predicted result: France to win @ $1.08 – Bet365

Samoa ($1.10) vs USA ($6.45)

Kick-off: Sunday – 21:00 (AEDT)

Samoa and the USA will lock horns at the Brighton Community Stadium in Brighton on Sunday night. Samoa were finalists in this year’s Pacific Nations Cup, a tournament that includes the USA and they also pushed this tournament’s favourites, the All Blacks hard in Apia in July. The USA are coming fresh off a loss to the Wallabies in Chicago, in a match that they were in until just after half time. Looking at the last time these two teams played, Samoa won the clash against the Eagles 21 – 16 in San Jose in July having led 21 – 3 at the break.

Samoa Team:

Zak Taulafo, Ole Avei, Anthony Perenise, Filo Paulo, Joe Tekori, Maurie Fa’asavalu, Jack Lam, Ofisa Treviranus (captain), Kahn Fotuali’i, Tusi Pisi, Alesana Tuilagi, Rey Lee-Lo, Paul Perez, Ken Pisi, Tim Nanai-Williams

Reserves: Viliami Afatia, Motu Matu’u, Census Johnston, Faifili Lavave, Alapati Faosiliva, Vavao Afemai, Mike Stanley, Fa’atoina Autagavaia

USA Team:

Eric Fry, Zach Fenoglio, Titi Lamositele, Hayden Smith, Greg Peterson, Al McFarland, Andrew Durutalo, Samu Manoa, Mike Petri, AJ MacGinty, Chris Wyles (captain), Thretton Palamo, Seamus Kelly, Takudzwa Ngwenya, Blaine Scully

Reserves: Phil Thiel, Oli Kilifi, Chris Baumann, Cam Dolan, Danny Barrett, Shalom Suniula, Folau Niua, Brett Thompson

Prediction:

Samoa head into this match as strong favourites, more so than their three gap ranking suggests (Samoa – 12 and USA – 15). Manu Samoa haven’t had the best lead up to the Cup, but they always play well at the tournament and they are a team you never want to have to face due to their physicality and their ability to score from anywhere on the field. They have a number of solid Super Rugby players in flanker Jack Lam and Tim Nanai-Williams, as well as the Pisi brothers who play their rugby in the Premiership in the UK. The USA are a team that has so much potential, but they have never quite risen to the challenge. They pushed the Wallabies hard in the first half in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, but in the end they were blown away by a much better side. I expect a similar storyline this weekend, especially if the Samoans can maintain their discipline. The Eagles have never beaten Manu Samoa and I can’t see that changing in Brighton.

Predicted result: Samoa to win @ $1.10 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 1: Samoa -16.0 (vs USA) @ $1.83 – Ladbrokes

Wales ($1.00) vs Uruguay ($101.00)

Kick-off: Sunday – 23:30 (AEDT)

The second match on Sunday night sees Wales host Uruguay at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. Wales’ campaign has almost ended before it has even started given the injuries to halfback Rhys Webb and fullback Leigh Halfpenny, however, their replacements will get some game time against Los Teros. Uruguay head into this match on the back of two heavy losses to Japan last month. The clash in Cardiff will also be the first time these two have faced each other in their rugby histories.

Wales Team:

Paul James, Scott Baldwin, Samson Lee, Jake Ball, Luke Charteris, Sam Warburton (captain), Justin Tipuric, James King, Gareth Davis, Rhys Priestland, Hallam Amos, Scott Williams, Cory Allen, Alex Cuthbert, Liam Williams

Reserves: Ken Owens, Aaron Jarvis, Tom Francis, Dominic Day, Dan Lydiate, Ross Moriarty, Lloyd Williams, Matthew Morgan

Uruguay Team:

Alejo Corral, Carlos Arboleya, Mario Sagario, Santiago Vilaseca, Jorge Zerbino, Juan Manuel Gaminara, Matias Beer, Alejandro Nieto, Agustin Ormaechea, Felipe Berchesi, Rodrigo Silva, Andres Vilaseca, Joaquin Prada, Santiago Gibernau, Gaston Mieres

Reserves: German Kessler, Oscar Duran, Mateo Sanguinetti, Franco Lamanna, Agustin Alonso, Juan De Freitas, Alejo Duran, Francisco Bulanti

Prediction:

Put simply, this match is going to finish with the scoreboard looking like a cricket score. Despite the monumental injuries that the Welsh have had to contend with, they are going to have far too much for the South Americans. This will most likely be the most one-sided match of the first week and playing in front of a boisterous crowd at Millennium Stadium, the Welsh will be looking for a strong points differential with matches still to come against England and Australia. The Welsh have selected a largely second string outfit, so I’m going to stay away from the handicap.

Predicted result: Wales to win by a handsome margin @ $1.00 – Bet365

New Zealand ($1.04) vs Argentina ($13.00)

Kick-off: Monday – 01:45 (AEDT)

The match of the first week will see the reigning champions, the All Blacks face the Pumas on Monday morning at Wembley Stadium in London. The All Blacks head into this match having won nine of their last ten, including their most recent 28-point victory over the Wallabies in Auckland. Argentina are notoriously a strong Rugby World Cup team and a win over the Springboks in Durban just over a month ago will have instilled confidence amongst the playing group, however, zero wins from 21 attempts doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Argentina.

New Zealand Team:

Tony Woodcock, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter, Julian Savea, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Ben Smith

Reserves: Kevin Mealamu, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Victor Vito, Sam Cane, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Sonny Bill Williams

Argentina Team:

Marcos Ayerza, Agustin Creevy, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Guido Petti, Tomas Lavanini, Pablo Matera, Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, Leonardo Senatore, Tomas Cubelli, Nicolas Sanchez, Juan Imhoff, Juan Martin Hernandez, Marcelo Bosch, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet

Reserves: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera, Ramiro Herrera, Mariana Galarza, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Martin Landajo, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino

Prediction:

This will without doubt be the match of the round, but coming up against the All Blacks, the Pumas are going to be in for a tough evening. The All Blacks are an extremely prosperous brand that has been built on the back of consistency and success over many years. They have one of the highest winning percentages for any team in world sport and subsequently, an aura has been created that has many of their opposition mentally defeated before the match even begins. New Zealand will be hurting having lost the Rugby Championship to Australia, but this is the one they want retain so dearly.

Joining The Rugby Championship in the short term was never going to be easy for Argentina, but for the long term, it was always a necessary to grow the game. It took 18 matches for the Pumas to record their first victory in the tournament, however, they have continued to grow and blood youth and they were rewarded with a strong win against South Africa in Durban about 6 weeks ago.

At Wembley, the All Blacks will be out to make a statement, whereas the Pumas will be looking to secure their first victory over New Zealand ever. Given it is the first match for both teams, it might take a while for their engines to start. The Argentinians will rely heavily on their power and prowess at scrum time, but they are coming up against a very experienced pack and their backline combinations won’t be able to match New Zealand’s power and pace. From jerseys 1 – 15, New Zealand holds an edge and with good conditions expected under foot, the Argentinians should be in it for the first half an hour, before the class of the All Blacks prevail with a convincing win.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.04 – Bet365

*Match bet to be posted on twitter closer to kick-off dependent on weather and line movements

Author

Glenn

Glenn has followed rugby union for 19 years and has expert knowledge on the game freely committing to over 500 viewing hours a year. Having played with and against some current Super Rugby players and International superstars, he understands the game, the players and the laws inside out. Having been born in South Africa, spent time in New Zealand and currently living in Australia, Glenn lives and breathes rugby. With so many different tournaments happening around the world simultaneously and the addition of Rugby Sevens to the Olympic program, there are always plenty of healthy betting options available. An obsession, a passion, call it what you will, Glenn enjoys sharing his insight, opinions and predictions with anyone who wants to listen.

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