Rugby fans around the world will be ecstatic with the amount of rugby on at the moment, as both hemispheres are battling it out for either provincial or international glory. The Rugby Championship has reached the halfway stage and as one plays two and three plays four this week, it could well be the defining round of the competition. In the ITM Cup, Counties Manukau secured the Ranfurly Shield last week for the first time in their history and they will defend it against Taranaki in front of a packed house in Pukekohe on Sunday. Last weekend, the Aviva Premiership (England) and the RaboDirect Pro 12 (teams from Ireland, Italy, Scotland & Wales) got underway and they are definitely competitions to keep an eye on with the Autumn Internationals fast approaching later in the year. The Top 14 continues to throw up surprises and the Currie Cup remains a tightly contested competition, but all eyes will be on Eden Park on Saturday with the colossal match between two of the world’s rugby superpowers. It was a mixed bag again last weekend, but due to the short durations between matches, make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby as the giants of the southern hemisphere rugby battle it out for supremacy.
Best Bet 1: Canterbury -21.5 @ $1.90 – Bet365
Best Bet 2: South Africa +9.5 (PYOL) @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: Argentina +11.5 @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
ITM Cup – Canterbury ($1.06) versus Otago ($7.60)
The ITM Cup is New Zealand’s premier domestic rugby competition and in my opinion, the best advertisement for rugby. Although it has had several name changes over the years, the competition began in 1976 as the NPC. The competition is split into two divisions: The Premiership and The Championship. Similarly to Super Rugby, there are inter-divisional matchups and cross-divisional matchups, and given the wealth of talent that exists in New Zealand, the standard and quality of rugby is of the highest calibre. New Zealander’s have always had the ability to beat a defender one-on-one and for that reason, coupled with some weakened defences due to the quick turnarounds between matches, the total tries and total points are markets that I pay a lot of attention too. Canterbury are the reigning ITM Cup champions and this isn’t surprising given their depth and their larger contingent of All Blacks that generally return towards the latter stages of the tournament.
Canterbury
AMI Stadium in Christchurch, the home of the Crusaders in Super Rugby will host a cross-divisional match up when the potent Cantabrians battle an Otago outfit struggling in the Premiership division. Canterbury have a wealth of experienced Super Rugby players including captain George Whitelock, Ryan Crotty and Tom Taylor, who returns from international duty. Corey Flynn, Luke Whitelock and Andy Ellis will offer a great deal of impact and experience off the bench, so I don’t expect the intensity to drop when the bench is utilised later in the match by coach Scott Robertson. The Cantabrians are undefeated from their four matches so far and have had no issues scoring points this season, averaging a touch over 38 points per game. Having only been pushed close in one match against Tasman, who might I add have been impressive and are the Premiership (second division) leaders, the Cantabrians have also had the luxury of not having to play a midweek match yet. The injury to Richie McCaw in the All Blacks has seen pilfering expert Matt Todd leave the squad, so youngster Jed Brown will receive his fourth cap for his province and it will be interesting to see if Canterbury’s conveyor belt of openside flankers continues to produce.
Otago
Once a heavyweight of New Zealand provincial rugby, it is fair to say that Otago has seen better years. Otago started the competition strongly winning their two fixtures against Bay of Plenty and Waikato, of which the second one was for the Ranfurly Shield, something they waited 56 years to get their hands on. Sadly for the province, they relinquished the famous ‘Log o’ Wood’ the following week to Hawkes Bay and they were well and truly thrashed by a rampaging Tasman outfit last weekend. They don’t have the stars that their opponents have, but players like Liam Coltman, Tom Donnelly, Fumiaki Tanaka and Hayden Parker will need to stand up if Otago are going to be competitive in this match. However, you get the feeling that away from home, it is going to require a huge effort to not let the scoreboard blowout in Christchurch.
Prediction
With the weather God’s set to play their part and produce conditions conducive to running rugby, Otago will be spending a lot of time defending a bigger, faster and classier Canterbury outfit. I can really see Canterbury running riot in this fixture and flexing their muscles before their big clash against Championship leaders Wellington next weekend.
Predicted result: Crusaders to win @ $1.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Canterbury -21.5 @ $1.90 – Bet365
The Rugby Championship – New Zealand ($1.39) versus South Africa ($3.85)
The hallowed turf of Eden Park will play host to the All Blacks and the Springboks this weekend in Auckland, where two teams brimming with confidence clash for the rights to be title favourites. Expectedly, the All Blacks prevailed against the Pumas last week in unfavourable conditions in Hamilton, but the home team did it tougher than many expected they would. On the other hand, the Springboks headed to Suncorp Stadium having never won there and against the odds, they bullied the Wallabies into submission and grabbed a bonus point for scoring four tries in the process with a convincing 38 – 12 win, one of their biggest ever over the Wallabies in their lengthy history. This encounter is always one of the biggest on the international calendar and given the quality of rugby and the success both of teams have achieved so far this year, strap yourselves in because this will be test rugby at it’s finest – this will be war.
New Zealand
The All Blacks weren’t at their best last week in Hamilton, but as good teams do, they still managed to grind out a win against the stubborn ‘Argies’. The home side found themselves behind on the scoreboard early on when debutant Francis Saili fumbled a pass and Argentina worked the ball through the hands and crashed over the try line courtesy of their number eight, Leguizamón. The All Blacks looked under the pump until discipline once again proved to be the Pumas biggest nemesis, when Eusebio Guinazu was sent to the sin bin for committing a professional foul. Lively scrum half Aaron Smith took matters into his own hands scoring two tries in quick succession, with the first thanks largely to a sublime pass from Kieran Read and the other due to some customary support play after a Ben Smith chip. The rain began to fall shortly after and as the conditions deteriorated, the error rates of both teams skyrocketed. Julian Savea managed to score the final try of the match to add some substance to the scoreboard, but it wasn’t a match the average fan would want to go back and watch on replay. The 28 – 13 triumph to the All Blacks was a victory, but it wasn’t a performance that would’ve instilled a huge amount of confidence into All Black fans ahead of their match against their biggest adversaries this weekend in Auckland. In saying that, fans will know that the All Blacks have a knack of playing their best football against the Boks and they wouldn’t want to play them anywhere else. Eden Park is undoubtedly the hardest ground in world rugby for travelling parties to win.
In huge news coming out of New Zealand this week, Richie McCaw looks likely to miss the remainder of the competition after sustaining a knee injury towards the latter parts of the match in Hamilton. Chiefs flanker Sam Cane, the latest of many New Zealand openside flanker understudies, will take his place in the biggest match of his test career to date. How big a loss is Richie McCaw some might ask? To put things into perspective, McCaw only played 60 minutes against Argentina, yet still was one of the first three to arrive at the breakdown on 28 occasions. Additionally, he was the top tackler for the All Blacks, so his physical presence is one that is so vital to the team – he is simply everywhere and has a motor that doesn’t stop. His leadership qualities are also second to none, but All Black fans will be happy to see the return of Liam Messam, a player that has come on in leaps and bounds over the last few seasons and his experience and physicality gave him the edge over test newcomer Steven Luatua. Coach Steve Hansen has also brought back rampaging centre Ma’a Nonu and bolstered the scrum by recalling Dane Coles and Owen Franks. The management team have certainly picked an extremely strong team littered with players with big game temperament and after a subdued performance last week, the stage is set for them turn up the heat at Eden Park.
South Africa
The Springbok juggernaut is on roll following their four-try clinic against the Wallabies. They are a team building in confidence having achieved their first victory in Mendoza and their victory over the Wallabies in Brisbane was their first in 42 years, and the biggest win against the men in gold in Australia. It was a match that was always going to be a litmus test and a game that the All Blacks would’ve kept a close eye on. Against the Wallabies, the Springbok pack dominated their counterparts, both in the set piece and in the loose and allowed their underrated backs to run riot against one of the more dangerous backlines in world rugby. Francois Louw, Eben Etzebeth and Bismarck du Plessis controlled the breakdown and made their presence felt in both defence and attack. Special mention must go to fullback Zane Kirchner, who cops criticism week-in and week out, but he had one of his best games in the green jersey and certainly justified his selection this week. At the top echelon of world rugby, when a team is off by just a few percentile points, a blowout on the scoreboard isn’t uncommon (Suncorp Stadium and Soweto), but it must be said that the Springboks are starting to hit their straps more often than not, which bodes well with the Rugby World Cup only two short years away.
Coach Heyneke Meyer certainly gives his walkie-talkie a workout from the coach’s box, but he has managed to bring a level of composure into the team that didn’t exist under the highlight reel addict, Pieter de Villiers. His consistency of selections over the course of the season and the Springboks relatively good injury-run has been a key catalyst to the Springboks current nine match winning streak. After last week’s promising display, Meyer has resisted making any changes to the squad and the fact that his players will have now acclimatised to local conditions on this side of the world, jetlag won’t be a factor. In terms of game plans, the Springboks have always come under criticism for their one dimensional play, but I don’t think the South African game plan has changed too much this year, even though you would think so having now scored 29 tries in their six matches so far, which would’ve been unheard of when playing tier one nations in yesteryear. I think it boils down to the addition of certain personnel; most notably Willie le Roux and their accuracy and skill sets have improved significantly. That coupled with having confidence in everything they do has created more opportunities and is reaping praises from rugby media around the world. Judging on last week’s performance, the Springboks are certainly a team on a mission and Eden Park in Auckland is their final frontier.
Prediction
The spiritual home of rugby will be buzzing with anticipation and hype on Saturday evening as the All Blacks record of not having lost to the Springboks at Eden Park since 1937 comes under threat. Over the last decade, the All Blacks have had the wood over the Wallabies, but the Springboks pose a different challenge and the South Africans know that the All Blacks are beatable. It was a great night for South African rugby in Brisbane, but the Springboks biggest issue over the past few seasons has been their consistency, and if they produce a Mendoza-like performance against the All Blacks, rather than a Brisbane performance, the lights could be out very early. The Springboks know that the All Blacks are the only team in world rugby that can match them in the physicality stakes, so it is imperative that the visitors build on their performance from last weekend, maintain their accuracy and start well. I cannot wait for this matchup on Saturday evening, so strap yourselves as this battle is going to be huge. Which team has the fortitude to overpower, outpace and outwit their opponents? We’ll find out on Saturday in one of the clashes of the season that will not only halt one team’s undefeated streak, but also decide the number one ranking in world rugby.
Predicted result: New Zealand to go up a gear and win, just @ $1.39 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: South Africa +9.5 (PYOL) @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
The Rugby Championship – Australia ($1.28) versus Argentina ($4.90)
Patersons Stadium in Perth will be the venue for this bottom of the log clash as the struggling Wallabies host the Pumas from Argentina on Saturday evening. Not many people would’ve predicted the Wallabies to be sitting at the bottom of the tournament ladder after three rounds, but they have come up against some exceptionally classy opposition in the All Blacks and the firing Springboks in recent weeks. It has been a disastrous season to date having won one fixture (against the British & Irish Lions) out of a possible six, and any hope that Ewen McKenzie was going to magically transform the team into world beaters overnight has ben dispelled. Similarly, the Argentinians haven’t performed much better, gaining a losing bonus point against the Springboks in Mendoza, although it must be said that they did put up a spirited performance against the All Blacks last weekend. Either way, at the culmination of this fixture, it will become apparent whether the Wallabies are still a class above the Pumas or whether their slide down the world rankings is well and truly warranted.
Australia
Australian rugby is in a state of disarray at present and should they lose to Argentina this weekend, it will be the first time in eight years that the Wallabies have lost five matches in succession. Some are saying that Robbie Deans’ record is starting to look not so shabby, but as former Wallaby Julian Huxley stated midweek, ‘five years of mismanagement cannot be turned around in one month’. After analysing Australia’s last three test matches under their new coach Ewen McKenzie, it is clear as to where their issues lie. Firstly, they have had no shortage of ball having won the possession battle in all of their defeats (62%, 56% and 59%), however, their turnover count has been inexcusable, losing the ball as many as 18 times against the Springboks. The Wallabies are simply not making enough of their opportunities and small lapses in concentration are being punished by the counter-attacking prowess of their opposition. Secondly, the Wallabies forward pack has been out-bullied at the breakdown and completely destroyed at scrum time, reminiscent of the quarter final of the 2007 Rugby World Cup quarterfinal defeat to England. The long-term absences of Wallaby regulars such as Scott Higginbotham, David Pocock, Digby Ioane and Kurtley Beale would derail any team, but the lack of depth in Australian rugby has once again been exposed.
Coach Ewen McKenzie has wielded the axe this week and made his most controversial decision to date by relegating Will Genia to the bench in favour of Brumbies organizer, Nic White. Genia, one of Australia’s only current ‘world 15’ players and once a favourite son of McKenzie at the Reds, will feel disheartened given he has been behind retreating packs in recent weeks, but it won’t be any easier for the debutant against the Pumas this week. Nic White offers a different game to Genia and his sniping runs from the base and superior kicking game might just be what Wallabies need to trudge forward.
Ben Mowen takes over the captaincy role for the first time in his first full season of test rugby, but the loss of Genia leaves the Wallabies a further 47 tests short in experience and in my opinion, he is the last player you would want to leave out given the current situation. The only other changes see the intimidating Sitaleki Timani and Tevita Kuridrani take their places on the bench in place of Ben McCalman and Jesse Mogg respectively. The longer the Wallabies fail to hit their straps, the more pressure will mount on current squad members and management alike. With further tests to come against the All Blacks and the Springboks, the match against the Pumas this week poses the ‘easier’ opportunity to return to the winner’s circle and restore some credibility in the gold jersey.
Argentina
The Pumas were always going to struggle in the Rugby Championship given the class of the opposition they were to come up against on a yearly basis. However, the more exposure they get to this level of rugby, the more chances the Argentinians will have to replicate their 2007 third placed finish at the Rugby World Cup. Last year, Argentina managed to secure a draw against the Springboks in Mendoza and although they almost repeated that feat this year, they are still yet to claim a southern hemisphere scalp that they so dearly want. Many would say that this weekend would be the Pumas best opportunity, given the state of affairs in Australian rugby at present. The Argies play a very physical game and start matches better than most having scored the first try against the Springboks in Mendoza and most recently against the All Blacks in Hamilton. Once again their discipline let them down last weekend and one could say they were in control of proceedings up until that point. Their scrum is powerful and they will be looking to inflict further psychological damage on the Wallabies heavy artillery, but whether or not they can keep all their players on the field remains to be seen.
Looking at this week’s team sheet, Argentinian coach Santiago Phelan had made five changes to the match day 15, with four of those selection-based and one of them injury enforced. Gonzalo Camacho has returned to Europe where he plays his club rugby after dislocating his shoulder against the All Blacks, and the speed merchant Juan Imhoff will replace him. Felipe Contempomi and Gonzalo Tiesi will be the new centre pairing and scrum half Tomás Cubali will earn his first starting cap in this year’s tournament. Up front Agustin Creevy replaces Eusebio Guinazu and otherwise, the forward pack remains unchanged.
Prediction
As aforementioned, the Wallabies are in a spot of bother at the moment, despite having a list that is capable of beating any team in world rugby on their day. The common themes that are dragging them down aren’t fixable overnight, but a loss to the Pumas would be seriously detrimental to Australian rugby. Historically, it looks as if the Pumas are up against it this weekend having only recorded a solitary victory against the Wallabies in Australia (1983) and they haven’t beaten the home side since 1997. But on form, the Argies are in with more than a chance. How this match is going to pan out is anyone’s guess, but the wet weather in Perth will certainly aid the tourists and nullify the attacking threats that the Wallabies have in abundance.
Predicted result: Australia to win a close one @ $1.28 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Argentina +11.5 @ $1.82 – Sportsbet
