The Rugby Championship, ITM Cup, French Top 14 and Currie Cup are all underway and we have had a good start to tipping with a 8-2 run from all competitions. This weekend in the Rugby Championship, the impressive All Blacks host the transitional Wallabies and the Springboks travel to Mendoza after the biggest annihilation in Rugby Championship history in favour of the Boks. Consequently, the odds have blown out this week, so there isn’t a lot of value in the head to head markets. The ITM Cup has produced some spectacular rugby in the opening round and the overs (total points) has been paying dividends. The Top 14 has been more hit and miss, but you would expect that with northern hemisphere rugby and the number of acquisitions in the offseason seems to have disrupted a lot of settled combinations. Queensland Premier Rugby heads into the playoff stages and my beloved University of Queensland have come to the fore in recent weeks and have provided some safe betting options. As always, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: Western Province -3 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Clermont -8 @ $1.90 – bet365
Best Bet 3: South Africa -12.5 @ $1.80 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Australia +24.5 (PYOL/ South Africa -7.5 (Tri-Bet) @ $1.95 – Sportsbet
Rugby Championship – New Zealand ($1.18) versus Australia ($6.60)
Wellington will host the second Bledisloe Cup clash of the season as the high-flying All Blacks welcome the wounded Wallabies to the ‘Cake Tin’. The All Blacks crossed the ditch last week and emphatically beat Australia 47 – 29 in a match that was supposed to see the home side’s fortunes change. Scoring six tries to two and rising star Ben Smith bagging a hat trick, the All Blacks took control of the match from the outset and had an answer for every Wallaby question. The Wallabies will get a chance to turn things around this weekend, but they will have to do it the hard way in blustery Wellington. If Australia can conquer their biggest obstacle this week, the decider will be in Dunedin on October 19th, and having not done the double in New Zealand since 1986, it is safe to say that the All Blacks firmly have one hand on the trophy.
New Zealand
After such a convincing victory last weekend, the All Blacks will love nothing more than to put on a similar showing in front of their faithful this weekend. The All Blacks haven’t tasted defeat at home since 2009, which is an impressive statistic given the quality of touring parties that have come to their shores since then. In Sydney, the All Blacks once again proved that they are the masters of counter attacking rugby and any team that doesn’t treasure the ball is made to pay, and in the Wallabies case, pay heavily. Ben Smith maintained his rich vein of form and he is quickly making the number 14 jersey his own. Steven Luatua showed that he has the potential to play at the highest level and on the biggest stage, when he complimented captain Richie McCaw and Kieran Read with aplomb. The former was guilty of trying too hard early on and gave away some uncharacteristic penalties, but as he eased into the match he grew in stature and collectively nullified the Wallabies attacking opportunities. It was a well-oiled Kiwi performance and their overwhelming experience advantage certainly played its part and will most probably do so again this weekend in Wellington.
In saying that, often after comprehensive victories a team can lose concentration and complacency can creep into their performance, however, coach Steve Hansen has stated that his team need to ‘ram home the advantage over the transitional Wallabies’. The All Blacks will have to do so this weekend without New Zealand’s answer to Bakkies Botha, Luke Romano who has picked up a groin injury and won’t feature again during the tournament. Brodie Retallick has taken his place and Hurricanes lock Jeremy Thrush will warm the bench. To make matters worse, Aaron Cruden and backup fly half Beauden Barrett will also miss this weekend’s return Test. The coaching panel has decided to call up Canterbury inside backs Tom Taylor and Colin Slade, with the latter last featuring for the All Blacks in their 2011 Rugby World Cup campaign. Nevertheless, Tom Taylor has been entrusted with the ten jersey on the back of a few consistent seasons with the Crusaders. His temperament is measured, he is a balanced footballer and his goal kicking accuracy of above 90%, surely swung the selection pendulum in his favour. With Read, McCaw and Aaron Smith inside of him and Nonu and Conrad Smith on his outside, his entrance into Test rugby couldn’t come with a better support cast. Saturday’s encounter will also been prop Tony Woodcock’s 100th cap and for that reason, the All Blacks will want to make it a memorable occasion for all involved.
Australia
Ewen Mckenzie’s honeymoon as Wallabies coach lasted a measly one game as he faces an even bigger challenge this week in the land of the long white cloud. As mentioned last week, it is going to take some time for the men in gold to reverse their fortunes and change their ways to consistently challenge their traditional rivals. In saying that, I haven’t seen Australian fans so confident and full of excitement before a match against the All Blacks last weekend for a long time. The fairytale was scripted: new coach, new squad, but sadly no new result. On their day, the Wallabies can certainly beat anyone, but the heavy loss to the All Blacks has seen them slide to fourth on the IRB world rankings behind New Zealand, South Africa and their old foe, England. By all accounts, if you didn’t watch or read reviews of the match, you would think that the All Blacks had the rub of the green, when in actual fact the Wallabies dominated both the territory (56%) and possession (60%) statistics, amongst many others. However, they turned the ball over an alarming 17 times, often allowing the All Blacks valuable field position and halting their much needed momentum.
Michael Hooper had a storming game in the open side jersey with four pilfers at the breakdown and was easily the Wallabies best player. Good news coming out of the Waratahs and the ARU is that they have both locked him down for the next few seasons. Will Genia also showed his class with another try for the highlights reel, but he probably didn’t have as much of an impact on the game as he would’ve liked. Adam Ashley-Cooper exemplified his claims as one of the best line runners in the game and James O’Connor joined him with two clean line breaks. Hugh McMeniman’s international season looks in tatters after his rotten luck with injury continued when he reinjured a troublesome shoulder that plagued him throughout the Super Rugby season. As the old cliché goes, one man’s loss is another man’s gain and Brumbies number eight Scott Fardy has been handed his debut run-on cap. Other than that, coach Ewen McKenzie has made the decision to stick with the same team that underperformed last week, as he will base his decisions on long-term performance as opposed to making drastic changes week-in and week-out. The Wallabies really fell away in the second half in Sydney and thanks to @rpetty80 (highly advise you follow him) for pointing out that in the last 8 away games against the All Blacks, the Wallabies have scored a combined total of 20 points in the second half. What is more startling is that five of those eight games saw the Wallabies fail to pick up a point after halftime.
Prediction
After last week’s result, I would be very surprised to see anyone backing the Wallabies in New Zealand this weekend, even as the Kiwi’s injury toll continues to mount. Emotions will be omnipresent in Wellington given the recent earthquakes and the national team will want to momentarily suppress any fears of subsequent disasters, by putting in a strong performance and once again raising the sacred Bledisloe Cup. New Zealand coach Steve Hansen clearly won the coaching battle in round one as his troops took care of business quite easily, so with advantage heavily in the All Blacks favour, it is a huge game not only for Ewen McKenzie, but also for Australian rugby in general. These are the games that McKenzie will be judged on and if there isn’t a much-improved performance by the Wallabies on Saturday, I feel it won’t be long until he comes under major fire from critics. I expect the Wallabies to be better this week and if they can make some more inroads in the New Zealand defense and finish off some of their plays, things shouldn’t be as bad as last week. I truly do believe this week is not about who will win, but by about how much New Zealand will win by. For me, New Zealand will continue on with this one-sided rivalry, but they will have to play well to match a similar margin to what they achieved last week.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.18 – Betfair
Currie Cup – Griquas ($2.58) versus Western Province ($1.56)
The Currie Cup is South Africa’s premier domestic rugby competition and having commenced back in 1889, it is steeped in history and tradition. Six teams compete in the premier division: Blue Bulls, Free State Cheetahs, Golden Lions, Griquas, Sharks and Western Province. With The Rugby Championship running in conjunction with the Currie Cup, the teams with the most depth generally fair better and given that the Currie Cup outlast The Rugby Championship, the Springboks internationals generally feature in the playoffs.
Griquas
This week, Griquas who hail from Kimberley host a star studded Western Province outfit. Griquas have started their season with a one win, one loss record and given they don’t feature in Super Rugby, that is a more than acceptable start. Griquas have proved over the last couple seasons they are a hard team to break down, especially on their home turf. For Australian and New Zealand viewers, Griquas don’t have many recognizable members, barring the often-cited JP Nel in the centres and Hilton Lobberts who ran around for the Stormers on a few occasions. However, don’t be fooled by this, as many in South Africa view the home side as the banana peel team in the competition and one that can seriously derail a team’s Currie Cup campaign.
Western Province
Western Province should really hold a record of 2-0 so far this season, however, they let a young and rampaging Bulls team fight back to level the score on the buzzer two weeks ago. Western Province are always hit hard when the international season kicks off, but 14 of their starting 15 have had a taste or are seasoned campaigners in Super Rugby. Their forward pack is relentless with names like Cilliers, Elstadt and their versatile captain Deon Fourie. Springboks Juan de Jong and Gio Aplon are key figures in the backline, but keep an eye out for Cheslin Kolbe who recently competed for South Africa at the IRB Junior World Cup. Western Province have taken a gamble this week by naming Kurt Coleman in the fly half jersey who doesn’t have the best kicking percentage, but he has been selected to ignite the backs outside him. These are the games that the blue and whites need to win if they want to retain the Currie Cup this year.
Prediction
Western Province have played in miserable conditions to date and given the clear forecast for Saturday, I expect it to be an open game. Many pundits have given Griquas a real chance in this fixture, and while they can’t be discounted, I think the class and experience of the Cape Town based franchise will extend their undefeated record this season.
Predicted result: Western Province to win @ $1.56 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Western Province -3 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
French Top 14 – Oyonnax ($4.20) versus Clermont ($1.08)
The Top 14 is France’s premier domestic rugby competition that has over 121 years of history. Hence the name, the fourteen best rugby teams in France compete for this prestigious trophy every year. The Top 14 has arguably some of the best rugby players in the world given their large budgets, which attract a number of international players, predominantly towards the end of their sporting careers. Approximately 40% (250 players) of the Top 14 are foreign rugby players and in doing so, they generally forfeit the ability to play for their national side. As you would expect, matches are slightly more intense and are played with a lot more width than what you see in the UK, although the weather often plays a key part in determining the entertainment value of a fixture.
Oyonnax
Oyonnax is a small town in France with a population of 23,000, but their rugby club is rich in history, first starting back in 1909. They are new to the Top 14 having played in the French D2 (Division 2) for the past ten seasons. Last year, they won the tier two competition with an outstanding record of 24 wins, one draw and five losses from 30 encounters. In the offseason, Oyonnax coach Christopher Urios bolstered his squad with eleven signings including Tonga international Viliame Ma’afu, Argentinian scrum half Agustin Figuerola and a host of other Top 14 players. Expectedly in round one, Oyonnax were thrashed 39-11 by Bayonne, so they are very much a team in development and will most likely have a few teething problems in their inaugural season.
Clermont
Clermont has been one of Europe’s top teams for the past few seasons and when you look at their roster, it isn’t surprising at all. One of my Twitter best bets last week had Clermont to beat Biarritz and that they did, although they had to hold off a spirited fight back from the home team. Julien Bonnairè, Morgan Parra and Sitiveni Sivivatu have been mainstays for years and with the side performing at a high level, they could afford to have a quiet offseason in terms of acquiring new talent. Their Kiwi coach Vern Cotter is in the upper echelon of coaches and he has bought the attacking brand of New Zealand rugby to Clermont, which always makes their matches interesting viewing.
Prediction
I can only see this match going one way and although this year’s Top 14 looks likely to be one of the more closely contested French competitions in years, Clermont simply have too much firepower to drop points against the tournament newcomers.
Predicted result: Clermont to win @ $1.08 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Clermont -8 @ $1.90 – bet365
Rugby Championship – Argentina ($7.00) versus South Africa ($1.15)
Argentina will want to erase all memories of last weekend’s drubbing to the Springboks, as they welcome the green and gold juggernaut to Mendoza on Saturday evening. Argentina will be licking their wounds after being completely outclassed 73 – 13 in front of a vibrant and emotional crowd at Soccer City in Soweto last weekend, where a number of records were broken. South Africa don’t have fond memories having drawn in Mendoza last year and were quite lucky in doing so, but it hard to see Argentina competing given the quality of their play and their lackluster effort in round one. It will be a cold evening in Mendoza, but the weather gods look likely to play their part to create conditions that are conducive to running rugby.
Argentina
Put simply, on last week’s showing, the Argentinians are going to struggle in this competition. After putting in a spirited performance for the first quarter of the match where they lured the Springboks down to their level, the visitors were in with a chance, but they completely capitulated and made things far too easy for the home side for the remainder of the match. Their captain and senior statesman Felipe Contepomi did manage to score a good consolation try, but this was one of very few positives to come out of the match for the tourists. The Argentines simply couldn’t handle the Springboks rolling maul and were made to pay on a number of occasions. The most alarming part of their performance was seeing two players sent to the bin for ten minutes for unnecessary indiscretions: one for slapping the ball down which led to a penalty try and the other for a dangerous tip tackle in the second half. When you are playing the best sides in the world, ill discipline is something that you cannot afford and this was reiterated on Saturday night.
I am not taking anything away from the Springboks performance because it was good, but Argentina looked ineffective, gutless and lacked pride, something they usually have in abundance. To make matters worse, influential lock Patricio Albacete looks likely to spend some time on the sidelines when he went off with an injury early in the match. That left Argentina with one recognised lineout jumper and against one of the best lineouts in the world, it was suicide. Coach Santiago Phelan has announced five changes to his line up this week, with inspirational skipper Lobbe still on the sideline, but they do regain the services of their first choice loosehead prop in Marcos Ayerza. However, in comparison to their visitors, the Argentinians lack depth in key positions and are really up against it on Saturday night, even at home.
South Africa
The routing of the Argentinians is certainly one of South Africa’s most complete performances for a number of seasons. Although the Boks took a while to get going after a sub-standard start, once they found their rhythm, they were absolutely sublime. The rout included nine tries, which is the most ever in a Tri nations/Rugby Championship match, but what was more astounding was that none of the try scorers managed to score a brace. The Springboks completely dominated the collisions, the breakdowns and their lineout was top notch, scoring four tries through their renowned weapon of the driving maul. There was some great interpassing between backs and forwards alike, and Morne Steyn was almost faultless with the boot, kicking 12 out of 13 for a total match tally of 28 points. Bryan Habana scored his 15th try in the competition, joining All Blacks great Joe Rokococo, one behind Christian Cullen. He also has registered at least one try in his last five tournament fixtures, breaking the competition record of four, so chances are good for an anytime try scorer bet this weekend. It is no surprise to see the Springboks making up a large contingent of the Rugby Championship ‘team of the week’, however, it will mean very little if they don’t turn up on Saturday. As a result, Heyneke Meyer has retained the same side that started in Soweto with the focus on building continuity.
Springbok backup halfback Fourie du Preez made a magnificent introduction back into the international fray. His passing was crisp, his game management was on point and he capped off his 20-minute cameo with a try. When interviewed after the match, he went on to say that the quality of Japanese rugby isn’t as bad as what some people suggest and given his performance, you might have to agree. Unfortunately for the Boks, due to contractual restrictions, du Preez can only play home matches, so his place on the bench has gone to Bulls halfback Jano Vermaak. If Vermaak gets some game time, it will be his second appearance in the green jersey after a disappointing first test that saw him leave the field before half time with an injury. The forwards really laid the platform last week and backs like Engelbrecht, Habana and le Roux really thrived off the forward momentum. Most importantly, the Springboks back row will need to dictate play around the breakdown if the Boks are to repeat last week’s feat.
Prediction
Mendoza is not a happy hunting ground for the travelling Springboks, but Argentinian rugby is in disarray and they have really fallen from grace after a promising Rugby Championship season last year. The Springboks have never lost to Los Pumas, but they still have some way to go before they can consistently contend with the All Blacks, but early signs show that they are certainly heading in the right direction. Any chance of complacency creeping into the Springboks performance this week will surely be snuffed out with the bad memories of twelve months ago still rife in their minds. Bismarck du Plessis will play his 50th match off the bench and the Boks will want to make it a memorable occasion for him after all he has done for Springbok rugby to date. Argentina’s odds have blown out this week and rightly so. Although, I don’t see the scoreboard jumping up to the heights it did in Soweto, I am highly confident that the Boks will run away with it after a more spirited first half performance from the Pumas.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.15 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: South Africa – 12.5 @ $1.80 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Australia +24.5 (PYOL/ South Africa -7.5 (Tri-Bet) @ $1.95 – Sportsbet
