With Super Rugby well and truly done and dusted for 2013, rugby fanatics will have even more rugby to watch as we embark on the second edition of The Rugby Championship, a new ITM Cup (New Zealand provincial rugby), the Currie Cup (South Africa provincial rugby) and a plethora of European fixtures as the northern hemisphere season gets underway. Rather than previewing every game of every competition, my main focus will be on The Rugby Championship and I will select matches from other tournaments where I see valuable betting options available. As always, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby.
Best Bet 1: Toulon to win @ $2.36 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Waikato -8.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: New Zealand -4.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 4: Australia +17.5 / South Africa by 13+ @$1.97 – Sportsbet
French Top 14 – Montpellier ($1.50) versus Toulon ($2.36)
The Top 14 is France’s premier domestic rugby competition that has over 121 years of history. Hence the name, the fourteen best rugby teams in France compete for this prestigious trophy every year. The Top 14 has arguably some of the best rugby players in the world given their large budgets, which attract a number of international players, predominantly towards the end of their careers. Approximately 40% (250 players) of the Top 14 are foreign rugby players and in doing so, they generally forfeit the ability to play for their national side. As you would expect, matches are slightly more intense and are played with a lot more width than what you see in the UK, although the weather often plays a key part in determining the entertainment value of a fixture. Earlier this year, Castres broke a 20-year drought by winning the title, where they defeated Toulon in the final. It must be said though, Toulon were victorious the week prior in the Heineken Cup final (European Super Rugby), so the motivation factor may have been a little bit lower than usual.
Montpellier
Things are looking bright for Montpellier rugby in the 2013/2014 as they are certainly a team to keep an eye on this year. Former French captain Fabian Galthie has extended his contract as couch of the team until 2017, reiterating the potential he sees in his squad moving forwards. After being beaten in the playoffs last season by eventual champions Castres, the club has opened the cheque book and acquired big names from the southern hemisphere including the rampaging Rene Ranger (New Zealand), the bullocking Sitaleki Timani (Australia), centres Wynand Olivier and Robert Ebersohn (South Africa). However, it might still be a few weeks yet until we see all of these players in action given the only recent conclusion of Super Rugby. Montpellier will be a great prospect this season, but Toulon will be tricky customers first up and they will need Francois Trihn-Duc and captain Fulgence Ouedraogo to lead from the front.
Toulon
As aforementioned, Toulon are the reigning Heineken Cup champions and finalists in this competition last year. With names Bakkies Botha, Carl Hayman, Matt Giteau, Dannie Rossouw and captain Jonny Wilkinson, and recent acquisitions such as Bryan Habana (South Africa), Ali Williams (New Zealand) and Martin Castrogiovanni (Italy) just to name a few, it would be no surprise to see Toulon feature near the top of the ladder in all competitions again this year. Bernard Laporte has coached at the highest level as he was in charge of Les Bleus for eight years, including those two memorably victories over the All Blacks, so Toulon are certainly well placed heading into the 2013/2014 season.
Prediction:
Although there is a lot of hype around Montpellier and their push towards higher honours in the Top 14, Toulon have more experience and players with more class and despite having to open their season away from home, for those reasons I see them prevailing.
Predicted result: Toulon to win @ $2.36 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Toulon to win @ $2.36 – Betfair
ITM Cup – Waikato ($1.33) versus Northland ($3.30)
The ITM Cup is New Zealand’s premier domestic rugby competition and in my opinion, the best advertisement for rugby. Although it has had several name changes over the years, the competition began in 1976 as the NPC. The competition is split into two divisions: The Premiership and The Championship. Similarly to Super Rugby, there are inter-divisional matchups and cross-divisional matchups, and given the wealth of talent that exists in New Zealand, the standard and quality of rugby is of the highest caliber. New Zealander’s have always had the ability to beat a defender one-on-one and for that reason and some weakened defenses, the total tries and total points are markets that I pay a lot of attention too. Canterbury are the raining ITM Cup champions and this isn’t surprising given their depth and their larger contingent of All Blacks that generally return towards the latter stages of the tournament.
Each week ranging from Wednesday to Sunday, there are seven or eight games of quality rugby, so I will look to feature the games where I see some good betting opportunities. As aforementioned, the games are free flowing and more the most part, are a great advertisement for rugby and how it should be played.
Waikato
Waikato (the Mooloos) head into the ITM Cup season on the back of their Super Rugby title and as reigning Ranfurly Shield holders. The Ranfurly Shield, also known locally as the ‘Log o’ Wood’ is based on a challenge system. Essentially, it is a subplot within the competition, so teams that won’t necessarily feature in the playoffs might get the opportunity to gain some silverware. The holding union of the shield defends the Log o’ Wood at any of their home fixtures and it has been spoken about as being one of New Zealand’s most sought after trophies. Waikato put the Ranfurly Shield on the line this weekend against the Taniwha (Northland). Seasoned campaigner Jackson Willison captains the side in place of Matt Vant Leven and with a number of players away on international duties and Ben Tameifuna resting his huge frame after an arduous Super Rugby campaign, the side looks vastly different. The Mooloos still boast a number of players with Super Rugby experience and despite missing the playoffs last year, they still have the calibre of players to beat any team on their day.
Northland
Northland play in the Championship (second) division and any time a team gets to play against the top teams, they want to claim a scalp to press their claims for making the Premiership the following year. Northland will be skippered by the versatile and confrontational Rene Ranger, who is unavailable for the All Blacks as he is heading off the France later this year. When you cast your eyes over their team sheet, you get the sense that they are very much a ‘feeder side’ and nurture a number of players instead of possessing the best of the best. Ben Seymour of the Western Force plays in the number ten jersey and their back row consisting of Jake Parangatai (Highlanders), Jack Ram (Tonga) and Dan Pryor (Blues) will be looking to control the breakdown. Other than Bronson Murray (Highlanders) who scrums down at loose-head prop, there aren’t a lot of other names that would be familiar to casual rugby fans and I certainly think they are up against it in Hamilton this weekend.
Prediction:
Based on the reasons above, I think Waikato will have too much class and experience for the travelling Northland outfit, but I do think a number of tries will be scored and Rene Ranger will stamp his authority on the match at some stage.
Predicted result: Waikato to win @ $1.33 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Waikato -8.5 @ $1.90 – Sportsbet
Rugby Championship – Australia ($2.94) versus New Zealand ($1.58)
ANZ Stadium in Sydney will open up The Rugby Championship this weekend when the mighty All Blacks cross the ditch to play a youthful, but determined Wallabies squad that recently succumbed to the might of the British & Irish Lions. New Zealand on the other hand comprehensively outplayed the French in three successive test matches in June, so it is no surprise to see the All Blacks heading into this tournament as $1.38 favourites (Betfair). Both teams will play the return fixture in Wellington next weekend, should the stadium pass the earthquake inspection test, so this match will be vital to see whether or not the All Blacks can retain the Bledisloe Cup for the eleventh successive year, given that Australia has to win two of the three fixtures (two of those away). Last year the All Blacks won two Bledisloe Cup games, including the Eden Park shutout (22 – 0), before the Wallabies bravely fought back and earned a famous draw at their fortress known as Suncorp Stadium.
Australia
The Wallabies kick off a new era on Saturday when they look to catch the notoriously dangerous All Blacks off guard. As far as most of the rugby would were concerned, Australian rugby had been in a stale state for a number of years and the ARU needed to make a change and relinquish Robbie Deans of his coaching duties. Former Reds coach Ewen Mckenzie has since taken over and it is no surprise to see a large contingent of Reds players in the 30-man squad chosen for the tournament. The squad consists of 11 Brumbies, nine Reds, six Waratahs, three Force players and one Rebel, which is a good reflection of where each side is at in Super Rugby. Early reports out of Camp Wallaby state that the culture is transforming and that McKenzie has really breathed some new life into Australian Rugby.
Any rugby fan knows that he has always structured his game plans around the willingness to play and to spread the ball to the flanks and put opposition defenses under pressure. He valiantly orchestrated the Reds turnaround from a team that was in the lower quadrant of the competition ladder with low attendance figures to premiers in front of sellout crowds in a matter of two seasons. The breakdown and the collisions are two hugely important facets of the match on Saturday and Mckenzie has high hopes that his young brigade can show the grit and determination to succeed at the highest level and what better way to test their mettle – against the All Blacks.
Ewen McKenzie named his lineup for the match late on Thursday afternoon and after a lot of conjecture during the week as to who would be selected in the fly half jersey, Matt Toomua from the Brumbies received the nod. The front row of Slipper, Moore and Alexander have all played enough rugby to know what to expect upfront from New Zealand this weekend. Rob Simmons and captain James Horwill make up the second row and Hugh McMeniman returns to the Wallabies in the number six jersey having last played for his country five years ago. Michael Hooper has edged out Gill for the open-side role and Ben Mowen will lock the back of the scrum. Ben Mowen has made the transition from Super Rugby into test rugby with ‘ease’ after many former players and coaches labeled and rated him purely as a Super Rugby player. He was easily one of the best Wallabies in their recent series defeat to the British & Irish Lions, however, the loss of the rampaging Wycliff Palu leaves big boots for Mowen to fill. Will Genia is by far and away the best halfback in world rugby and I expect him to make the shortlist of the IRB World Player of the Year at the end of the season. His partnership with Matt Toomua will be vital if the Wallabies are to get their campaign off to the best possible start. With the consistent Adam Ashley-Cooper and recent debutants and league converts Israel Folau and Jesse Mogg, the Wallabies backline will certainly poses some threats. In saying that, they will need their forwards to provide them with the front foot ball that allows them to play with a bit more freedom (as Ewen Mckenzie is known for) in comparison to the Deans era. In total, Mckenzie has named five uncapped players, with four of them on the bench and all hailing from Canberra (Sio, Fardy, White & Kuridrani). Should they get some game time, these players will all face a huge baptism of fire against the All Blacks this weekend. Quade Cooper will certainly get some game time in the second half and I am interested to see how he handles his role, whether they are ahead or behind on the scoreboard. All in all, this is one of the strongest lineups on paper I have seen represent Australia for a number of years, so it will be fascinating to see whether they can put in a huge effort against their biggest rivals.
New Zealand
The All Blacks have an extremely prosperous brand that has been built on the back of consistency and success. They have one of the highest winning percentages for any team in world sport and subsequently, an aura has been created that has many of their opposition mentally defeated before the match even begins. Every year, the All Blacks have to contend with an exodus that sees a number of their stars heading abroad to chase the financial riches that the Northern Hemisphere rugby competitions have to offer. But to the credit of the NZRU and their highly effective developmental programs, they consistently manage to field a team that strikes fears into the eyes of their opponents. Looking at last year’s campaign, The All Blacks had an impeccable Rugby Championship, going through the tournament undefeated. But with success comes added pressure and even greater expectation, but early analysis and expert predictions suggest that the Kiwis are once again if things go according to plan, the AB’s are on track to take out this year’s title and consolidate their position at the top of the world rankings.
Coach Steven Hansen has named a match day squad with over 800 test caps for this crucial Bledisloe encounter. The All Blacks forward pack, but even more so their back row has been a dominant strength of theirs for a number of years. Generally comprising of the Super Rugby final MOM (man of the match) Liam Messam, the inspirational captain Richie McCaw, and the best number 8 on the planet, Kieran Read, it is no surprise that they dominate the breakdowns with a combination of brute strength and technical guile. Richie McCaw is lacking match fitness, having only played a minimal number of minutes off the bench for the Crusaders late in the season, but his experience, rugby IQ and the confidence he brings to his teammates around him is second to none. Unfortunately, for the All Blacks, Liam Messam has been ruled out of this fixture and his place has been taken by up and coming star Steven Luatua who had a breakout season with the Auckland Blues. The illustrious Dan Carter has also been ruled out for three to four weeks with a niggling calf strain, which does level the playing field slightly, but his replacement the mercurial Aaron Cruden, played extremely well for the Chiefs this year and will be looking to grasp this opportunity to cement his place in team with a few solid performances. His partnership with Aaron Smith will be under the microscope as they look to unleash the likes of Nonu, Conrad Smith, Savea, Ben Smith and the graceful Israel Dagg outside them. The All Blacks backline has a balance of pace and power and each player contains match-winning capabilities, making them an extremely dangerous proposition to match up against.
Prediction:
In all honesty, I find that the All Blacks are a team that you just simply shouldn’t bet against because they have that innate ability to turn a close contest into a blowout in the space of just a few minutes. They All Blacks handle pressure better than any other team on the planet and this will be important playing away from home in Sydney on Saturday evening. But at the same time, I don’t think the All Blacks have been confronted by a team with this much promise and anticipation for a number of seasons. Robbie deans was at the helm of the Wallabies for six seasons and didn’t have a lot of silverware to show for it and even though I think the appointment of Ewen Mckenzie was the right choice, history states that it will take a season or two to turn their fortunes around and for that reason, I can’t see the Wallabies trumping the All Blacks on Saturday evening.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.58 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: New Zealand -4.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Rugby Championship – South Africa ($1.14) versus Argentina ($8.10)
The second and final match of round one sees the Springboks host Argentina at FNB Stadium just outside of Johannesburg in the township of Soweto. South Africa are coming off three successive victories against Italy, Scotland and Samoa in June, whilst Los Pumas have had an ordinary run in recent times loosing twice to England before beating the travelling New South Wales Waratahs twice, albeit with an understrength squad. The Springboks won this corresponding first match last year, before having to fight back from a ten-point deficit in Mendoza to draw, in one of Argentina’s proudest rugby moments.
South Africa
Since that gut-wrenching draw to Argentina in The Rugby Championship last year, the Springboks have won seven of their last ten test matches, including morale-boosting wins against Ireland, Scotland and England on their end of year tour to Europe in 2012. Although none of the five South Africa Super Rugby teams made the grand final, the level of skill and consistency was much improved in comparison to previous years. As aforementioned, the Springboks have tasted victory on three occasions this year and with coach Heyneke Meyer selecting a number of Super Rugby combinations, continuity and consistency have them in a better position than their opposition this weekend. The Springboks are well known for their one-dimensional game plan, where they look to outmuscle their opponents in the forwards and rely heavily on Morne Steyn to convert pressure into points. However, this year they have looked to play a more expansive game plan, scoring a surprising 16 tries in their three test matches to date.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has named an uncompromising forward pack with names like Strauss, Etzebeth, Alberts and Vermuelen in the mix. Ruan Pienaar and Morne Steyn have been selected in the halves with de Villiers and JJ Engelbrecht forming an exciting centre combination. Habana, Basson and Willie le Roux round up the back three and although there is a lot pace there, defensively they are a bit light and I can see Bjorn Basson’s wing receiving a lot of attention. Willie le Roux has been the find of the season and perhaps the insightful fullback that the Springboks have been crying out for, for years. For the most part he excelled at Super Rugby this year, but The Rugby Championship will be a truer measure of his aptitude for test rugby. Bismarck du Plessis will make his return to test match rugby off the bench after a long injury layoff, as will Fourie du Preez, the most surprising inclusion in the Springboks squad. Former Springbok technical coach (2007 Rugby World Cup) and current Japanese coach Eddie Jones coached du Preez at Suntory where they had a record breaking two seasons, tasting defeat on only one occasion from over 30 matches. Jones has said that he considers du Preez to be in the same class as now ex-Wallabies flanker George Smith, which is a huge accolade. With the Japanese season culminating four months ago, du Preez knows his match fitness won’t be up to scratch, but his influence should he get on the park is unparalleled by any other current Springbok halfback.
Argentina
Argentina has always been a rugby team that has showed an immense amount of promise having made the semi-finals of the Rugby World Cup in 2007 (where they were beaten by the Springboks). They have taken some international scalps along the way and their inclusion in The Rugby Championship can only bode well for the future of Argentinian rugby. Additionally, there is speculation that Argentina might enter a team into Super Rugby from 2016, which in turn could see a number of their rising stars remain at home, as opposed to making the trek to Europe in search of financial reward. Some of Argentina’s recent success must be attributed to World Cup winning coach Graham Henry. He has been involved as a consultant over the past twelve months and many have likened the Argentinian’s current style of play to the All Blacks, who play the game at an extremely high tempo. Despite their rapid rise to the top echelon of world rugby, their once potent weapon of scrummaging has recently been in decline. This is an area that they need to address and address quickly if they want to continue to press their claims as worthy contenders in this competition.
The Pumas have been preparing for this tournament for the past four weeks, which is far longer than their southern hemisphere counterparts. However, Argentinian players are predominantly dispersed throughout Europe, so the added time would have been necessary for combinations to start gelling and everyone to get on the same page. Coach Santiago Phelan, allegedly a weakness in the Argentinian setup according to Graham Henry, has named a squad mixed with youth and experience (some would say dinosaurs). The unavailability of skipper Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe through injury is a huge blow to Argentina’s chances in this contest, but Felipe Contepomi, the 36 year old, 81-test veteran takes over the captain’s armband. They have some classy backs in Marcello Bosch and Juan Martin Hernandez, but upfront they might struggle against seasoned veterans who are match fit and willing to put in a big performance at home.
Prediction:
The match this weekend takes on extra meaning given the fact that South Africa has dedicated the day to former President Nelson Mandela. In a rare sports doubleheader, Bafana Bafana, South Africa’s national football team will play Burkina Faso in the curtain raiser, so emotions will certainly be riding high at Soccer City. Test match rugby is always won up front and the Springboks certainly have the edge here. The Springboks will look to dominate this encounter at the breakdown using the brute strength of Vermuelen and Alberts and through the turnover specialist Francois Louw. Given the Argentinians more expansive game plan since coaching great Graham Henry has been involved, slowing the ball down at the breakdown will be vital to limiting the tourists attacking opportunities. On Saturday evening, Argentina is seeking their first win over South Africa and their first victory in The Rugby Championship. They are up against it this weekend and although they have had more preparation time, I can’t see them overpowering a Springbok outfit that has their sights set on rebuilding to be a force to be reckoned with at the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.14 – Betfair
