Best Bet 1: South Africa +2.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
NEW ZEALAND ($1.01) VS ARGENTINA ($19.00)
New Zealand (2017): WLDWW
Argentina(2017): LLWLL
New Zealand: Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Nepo Laulala, Brodie Retallick, Luke Romano, Vaea Fifita, Ardie Savea, Kieran Read (captain), TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Sonny Bill Williams, Anton Lienert Brown, Israel Dagg, Damien McKenzie
Replacements: Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Ofa Tunga’afasi, Scott Barrett, Sam Cane, Tawera Kerr Barlow, Lima Sopoaga, Ngani Laumape
Argentina: Lucas Noguera, Agustin Creevy (captain), Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Guido Petti, Matias Alemanno, Pablo Matera, Javier Ortega Desio, Benjamin Macome, Tomas Cubelli, Nicolas Sanchez, Emilliano Boffelli, Jeronimo de la Fuente, Matias Moroni, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet
Replacements: Julian Montoya, Santiago Garcia Botta, Enrique Pieretto, Marcos Kremer, Tomas Lezana, Martin Landajo, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Matias Orlando
Prediction:
After a pretty routine year of consistently outmuscling and outsmarting their opponents in 2016, the All Blacks have really been tested this season. With their backs against the walls last weekend in the 78th minute, the All Blacks carefully crafted a game-winning blow that saw the ball go through several player’s hands for Beauden Barrett to seal the deal. They would’ve been ecstatic with the final outcome, but the stats suggest that they should’ve won by a far greater margin and that they have a lot to work on. To think that they only require a 40-60 minute performances to beat their opposition is a scary thought, but that is backed up by Steve Hansen’s troops having now won 66 of their 74 Test matches since 2012, a staggering win rate of 91%. They have claimed four out of five Rugby Championship trophies and are the reigning Rugby World Cup champions. They consistently face adversity and come through with flying colours.
Prop Owen Franks has been ruled out for the season, so the front row consists of Joe Moody, Dane Coles and Nepo Laulala. Sam Whitelock gets a breather and is replaced by Crusaders teammate Luke Romano, with Vaea Fifita in line for his second match at blindside flanker, alongside Ardie Savea and Kieran Read in the back row. Halfback Aaron Smith has the week off, which gives TJ Perenara his first start of the season. The double-barrel centre duo of Sonny Bill Williams and Anton Lienert-Brown will cause the visitors problems with Nehe Milner-Skudder returning on the left wing, to complement right winger Israel Dagg and fullback Damien McKenzie. Hansen has also named a strong bench with Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Scott Barrett and Sam Cane offering forward support and Tawera Kerr-Barlow, Lima Sopoaga and Ngani Laumape the back line reserves.
I seem to say the same things about Argentina every week, but put simply, they aren’t showing many positive signs or endeavour to change my views. The move to select only home-based players for their Super Rugby team (Jaguares) and their national team was a strong stance to take, but it hasn’t brought about the results that you would expect from a team that plays together all year round. Their poor discipline continues to undermine their brand and their moments of brilliance from time to time, aren’t going to be enough at this level. Daniel Hourcade’s decision to drop Tomas Lavanini as a result of his recent red card, does send the team the right message, but they are struggling to build the depth to mix it with the best in world rugby. The fact that their scrum has lost some of its potency would be concerning for the Pumas, especially given that in years gone past it has been the cornerstone of their game. They have a dangerous and exciting outside back trio, but with playmaker Nicholas Sanchez failing to reach the heights of yesteryear and the pack not always being on the front foot, it has made it difficult for them to consistently shine. Daniel Hourcade has also made a raft of changes to his squad for this match, two of which are injury-enforced (Ramiro Herrera and Juan Martin Hernandez). It is a clear attempt to mix things up and demote players who have been out of form, but it does look like a weaker outfit than the one that tackled the Springboks two weeks ago.
The All Blacks head into this matchup without its strongest team, but the depth of New Zealand rugby means they aren’t as affected as other teams would’ve been. The All Blacks will be gearing up for a big match against the Springboks next weekend, so the fringe players will be looking to put a good performance together to retain their spots. The Pumas have a great opportunity to catch the home side off-guard, but given their lack of recent success, a close encounter looks unlikely. Attacking rugby will be the name of the game and credit to the All Blacks for taking this match to a regional venue, but once again, I feel the result of this match is a foregone conclusion – New Zealand to win by plenty. It has also been raining in New Plymouth all week, which does make the +30.5 on offer slightly appealing – but it isn’t an official play.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.01 – Sportsbet
AUSTRALIA ($1.82) VS SOUTH AFRICA ($2.00)
South Africa (2017): WWWWW
Australia: Scott Sio, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Sekope Kepu, Rory Arnold, Adam Coleman, Ned Hannigan, Michael Hooper, Sean McMahon, Will Genia, Bernard Foley, Reece Hodge, Kurtley Beale, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight, Israel Folau
Replacements: Jordan Uelese, Tom Robertson, Allan Alaalatoa, Rob Simmons, Jack Dempsey, Nick Phipps, Samu Kerevi, Curtis Rona
South Africa: Tendai Mtawarira, Malcolm Marx, Coenie Oosthuizen, Eben Etzebeth (captain), Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi, Jaco Kriel, Uzair Cassiem, Ross Cronje, Elton Jantjies, Courtnall Skosan, Jan Serfontein, Jesse Kriel, Raymond Rhule, Andries Coetzee
Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff, Trevor Nyakane, Lood de Jager, Jean-Luc du Preez, Francois Hougaard, Handre Pollard, Damien de Allende
Prediction:
Last weekend’s match against the All Blacks was a huge improvement for the Wallabies, but if you look closer at the stats, they were outplayed across the board. Their attacking prowess led by Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau overshadowed their poor scrum, consistently weak defence where they missed 32 tackles, and an unacceptable level of discipline (13 penalties). They were certainly more physical in their approach which was pleasing to see, but the All Blacks uncharacteristically turned over the ball 18 times, which gave the Wallabies a chance of doing the unthinkable. Their attack was good though, scoring five tries against New Zealand, something they haven’t done since that that famous match in 2000, when Jonah Lomu scored the winning try in the left corner in Sydney. Special mention must go to Tatafu Polota-Nau, Sean McMahon, Will Genia and Kurtley Beale who played their best games for Australia for a long time, but consistently doing this is going to be their biggest challenge. Looking at the team named by Michael Cheika, he has made four changes to the match day squad. Stephen Moore is out due to his wife having their third child, which allows Polota-Nau to start and Australian under-20 hooker Jordan Uelese a spot on the bench. Adam Coleman returns to the second row and Waratahs flanker Jack Dempsey comes onto the bench. Dane Haylett-Petty has been ruled out for the season with a bicep injury, which promotes Reece Hodge to the left wing position. Samu Kerevi returns to the bench after a strong showing for Brisbane City in the NRC.
After a torrid 2016, the Springboks have started this year with a bang winning five matches in a row, all by at least 15 points. To be fair, the French looked disinterested and ready for a well-deserved holiday in June and Argentina simply doesn’t have the discipline or squad to become genuine threats at this level. There is no doubt about it that the Springboks will look to target the Wallabies scrum after dominating the Pumas upfront and after watching the All Blacks do the same to their opponents last round. Their lineout has been sound and Elton Jantjies continues to grow in a role that has been plagued with uncertainty over the past few years. The midfield continues to thrive with the resurgence of Jan Serfontein, whereas, the back three are more vulnerable when it comes to performing their defensive duties. Looking at the team named by Alastair Coetzee, it comes as no surprise that he has opted for consistency just making two changes to the starting team. Pieter-Steph du Toit comes in for the hard-working Franco Mostert in the second row, with the latter rested after a big season. Ross Cronje also returns to halfback, shifting Francois Hougaard back to the bench having recovered from a shoulder injury. Handre Pollard also returns on the bench after an injury ravaged two seasons, which will no doubt have Elton Jantjies looking over his shoulder. Pollard has a much better all-round game, with his defence a big positive and his versatility to also don the number 12 jersey.
This match has the potential to be an absolute classic with both Australia and South Africa possessing newfound confidence after recent performance/s. Test matches are won upfront and International success has always been underpinned with a watertight defensive system. The Springboks have shown that they should have the edge in the pack and at the breakdown, especially with the likes of Malcolm Marx, Siya Kolisi and Jaco Kriel ready to pounce and slow down the Wallabies ball. Their defence has improved significantly with Brendan Venter back in town, but they haven’t had to face an experienced and potent backline yet this season. This is where the Wallabies have the edge with Kurtley Beale in fine form, creating space and opportunities for the powerful running Tevita Kuridrani and Israel Folau. The Boks have a poor record in Australia, winning only four matches and drawing one from their 20 clashes since 1996. However, I still feel that they have the pack, cohesiveness and more importantly, the belief to beat the Wallabies in Perth. The Springboks have been in town for a week, so jet lag will not be an issue. It will be a tight match with Australia always finding a way to raise their game against South Africa, but I expect the Springboks to get up in a high-scoring match, before their bubble is burst against the All Blacks next week in Albany.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $2.00 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: South Africa +2.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet
Good read, spot on analysis