We are now at the midway point of The Rugby Championship with three rounds of action remaining. Week three saw the Argentinians give New Zealand a real scare in the first half with some direct running and offloads around the inside channels. However, in the end the All Blacks made it look easy coasting to clinical victory. Next up, the Wallabies got a monkey off their back with a narrow win over the Springboks at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. This week we see the Springboks stumble to Christchurch to face the might of the All Blacks, before Australia face Argentina in Perth on Saturday night. Don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of International rugby.

Best Bet 1: NZ second half handicap -11.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.89 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Australia second half handicap -4.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.84 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 3: NRC – Melbourne Rising -8.5 (vs Brisbane City) @ $1.90 – Sportsbet 

*Additional plays may be added on twitter once all markets have been released

New Zealand ($1.04) vs South Africa ($11.00)

New Zealand welcome a mentally and physically wounded South African outfit to AMI Stadium in Christchurch on Saturday evening. The All Blacks showed once again why they are the dominant force in world rugby with a 57-22 win over Argentina, despite trailing early on in the match. The Springboks were woeful once again, falling six points short (17-23) to the Wallabies in Brisbane on a wet night. Looking at the history between one of the biggest rivalries in the game, the All Blacks have won 11 of the last 13 matches played, with the Springboks not winning in New Zealand since September of 2009 (Hamilton).

New Zealand (2016): WWWWWW

Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Ardie Savea, Kieran Read (Captain), Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Ryan Crotty, Malakai Fekitoa, Israel Dagg, Ben Smith

Substitutes: James Parsons, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Luke Romano, Matt Todd, TJ Perenara, Lima Sopoaga, Anton Lienert-Brown

South Africa (2016): LWWWLL

Tendai Mtawawira, Adriaan Strauss (Captain), Vincent Koch, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Francois Louw, Oupa Mohoje, Warren Whiteley, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Francois Hougaard, Juan de Jong, Jesse Kriel, Bryan Habana, Johan Goosen

Substitutes: Malcolm Marx, Steven Kitshoff, Lourens Adriaanse, Franco Mostert, Willem Alberts, Jaco Kriel, Morne Steyn, Damien de Allende

Prediction: 

The last time the All Blacks and the Springboks clashed was at the Rugby World Cup Semi Final, where the underdogs gave New Zealand a real run for their money, only going down by two points. Since then, both teams have lost huge amounts of experience including Victor Matfield, Schalk Burger, Jean de Villiers, Kevin Mealamu, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Ma’a Nonu, and Conrad Smith, just to name a few. The Springboks have clearly stuttered and are heading in the wrong direction quickly, whereas the All Blacks have won the last seven games by 13 points or more. Their succession planning, depth and management has clearly been a huge success and other nations need to adopt similar strategies moving forward.

Looking at the team named by coach Steve Hansen, once again he has opted for consistency and just made the one injury-enforced change to the starting 15. Hurricanes flanker and rising superstar Ardie Savea has gotten the nod for the injured Sam Cane and I am excited to see what he brings with potentially a full 80 minutes at his disposal. He brings a lot of energy to the forward pack, both on attack and defense, and at the breakdown. His place on the bench has been taken by one of the Crusaders most consistent players in Matt Todd. Elsewhere on the pine, James Parsons comes in for Codie Taylor and Lima Sopoaga replaces the injured Aaron Cruden. Last week when the starting team was under pressure, coach Hansen turned to his bench and players like Charlie Faumauina and TJ Perenara sparked the second-half onslaught against the Pumas. I think this is a truly great lineup and it is hard to fault the All Blacks at the moment.

Embattled Springbok coach Alastair Coetzee has made two changes to his starting fifteen, with a further three changes on the bench. Up front, Vincent Koch has been recalled for Laurens Adriaanse at tighthead prop and Pieter-Steph du Toit, one of South Africa’s form players this year has replaced the injured Lood de Jager at lock. Surprisingly, the backline remains unchanged. I know it makes sense to give players the time to gel, but I don’t think they have the right components or balance to beat the best in the world. Since 2010, the Springboks have experimented with 22 different centre combinations. Gone are the days of having the reliable De Wet Barry/Marius Joubert or Jean de Villiers/Jacques Fourie midfield partnerships. What also concerns me is the Springboks kicking game and their positional play. Against the Wallabies, Australia kicked to the South Africa 27 times and found the grass on 14 of those occasions, whereas, the Wallabies were able to catch 21 of the Springboks 29 kicks on the full. It will be game over if the visitors take those kicking inaccuracies to Christchurch this weekend. On the bench, Malcolm Marx, the Springboks next ‘Bismarck du Plessis’ is in line to make his first Test appearance after a strong season with the Lions. The barnstorming, but somewhat old Willem Alberts has flown in from Paris to add some much needed grunt to the forward back on the bench and Damien de Allende replaces Lionel Mapoe as the outside back substitute.
Only a few years ago, this was one of the biggest matches on the rugby calendar. Since the turn of the decade, the Springboks have waivered and been inconsistent, whereas the All Blacks have continued to develop and evolve their skills. The Springboks are having a massive identity crisis at the moment and they often don’t look like they know what the game plan is, or when things are going bad, how to think on their feet and make good decisions. No one will be tipping against the All Blacks this weekend as they have won 43 consecutive home victories. Funnily enough, the last time they lost at home was to the Springboks in Hamilton in 2009. Teams that beat the All Blacks have a solid core, a rock-solid defence, can kick their goals and take the most of the limited opportunities they get. The Springboks aren’t that team and the only thing that will keep this close is the weather, but I feel that the All Blacks are going to make them look like schoolboys from around the 30th minute mark.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win easily @ $1.04 – William Hill

Best Bet 1: NZ second half handicap -11.5 (vs South Africa) @ $1.89 – Sportsbet 

Australia ($1.26) vs Argentina ($4.00)

International rugby returns to the nib Stadium in Perth, where Australia host Argentina on Saturday night. The Wallabies ended a six match losing streak with a confidence-boosting 23-17 victory over the Springboks last weekend at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Argentina will also be proud with how they played for most of the match against New Zealand, however, the class of the opposition was too much and in the end the Pumas were soundly beaten by 35 points. The last time these two played, the stakes were much higher in a Rugby World Cup semi-final, a match that the Wallabies won 29-15. The Pumas last tasted victory against Australia in 2014, but they haven’t beaten the Wallabies in Australia for 33 years.

Australia (2016): LLLLLW

Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (Captain), Sekope Kepu, Rob Simmons, Adam Coleman, Dean Mumm, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Reece Hodge, Bernard Foley, Samu Kerevi, Dane Haylett-Petty, Israel Folau

Substitutes: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Tom Robertson, Rory Arnold, Lopeti Timani, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Tevita Kuridrani, Henry Speight (one to be omitted)

Argentina (2016): WWLLWL

Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Agustin Creevy (Captain), Ramiro Herrera, Javier Ortega Desio, Matias Alemanno, Pablo Matera, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Facundo Isa, Tomas Cubelli, Nicholas Sanchez, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Matias Moroni, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet

Substitutes: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera, Enrique Pieretto, Marcos Kremer, Leonardo Senatore, Martin Landajo, Gabriel Ascarate, Matias Orlando

Prediction: 

This is a match that I am really interested in. The Wallabies bought themselves some more time last week with a gutsy win over the Springboks and the Pumas gave the All Blacks a real scare with an electric display of running rugby. Australia registered their first win since last year’s Rugby World Cup semi-final on the back of a huge improvement in their defense (although the Springbok attack didn’t pose too many questions), a better performance by Will Genia and Quade Cooper and a better kicking performance by Bernard Foley. An understrength Argentinian team threw everything at the All Blacks, offloading in the tackle and off the ground, keeping the ball alive and punishing them in open space with their speed.

Wallabies coach Michael Cheika has made just the one change to the starting team this week by bringing in Rob Simmons for Kane Douglas. Although Douglas has been a bit quiet, Simmons has failed to shine in the NRC competition (third tier). Cheika is clearly opting for some consistency, especially in his forward pack, so hopefully for the Wallabies sake that pays off this weekend. Last week’s man-of-the-match Michael Hooper continues to build into his season and the way in which he plays above his weight and motors around the paddock must give hope to all aspiring small number sevens in the country. There was talk that Folau could be moving to the centres and this was probably the week that it was going to happen, but it appears that Cheika is saving that card up his sleeve until later on in the season. At the time of writing, the bench hasn’t been finalised, however, it looks likely the Tom Robertson, who debuted for the NSW Waratahs this season, will get his first cap and potentially Lopeti Timani from the Rebels as well.

Argentinian coach Daniel Hourcade has made a substantial amount of changes to his team to face Australia this week after last week’s hiding by the All Blacks. There are four changes to his starting fifteen and two positional switches. The only change in the forward pack that faired well against the All Blacks is Juan Manuel Leguizamon replacing Javier Ortega Desio, who shifts to lock for Guido Petti who drops out of the 23. In the backs, Brumbies halfback Tomas Cubelli interchanges with Martin Landajo and Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias comes in for the injured Juan Martin Hernandez at inside centre, which is a big loss, both from an experience and skillset point of view. Argentinian Sevens flyer Matias Moroni moves in one position last week to outside centre allowing Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino some game time on the left wing. He will add even more speed to an outside back combination that would be one of the quickest in world rugby. I’m still not convinced with their bench and I see this is an area that the Wallabies will dominate, much the same as the All Blacks did last weekend.
I don’t expect either team to really change their game plan this weekend and as a result, I expect an open game in Perth. If the Wallabies can gain the ascendency up front, they have the breakdown exponents and skill to run in a few tries. The Pumas will look to flood the breakdown, legally and illegally, and catch the Wallabies off-guard on the counter attack. I expect that the Wallabies will be in for a big test until halftime before the Wallabies structure and discipline gets them through for a much needed and confidence boosting second consecutive victory.

Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.26 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: Australia second half handicap -4.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.84 – Sportsbet