After a week off, the third round of The Rugby Championship gets underway this weekend with a match between New Zealand and Argentina in Christchurch, before the Australia welcome South Africa to Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Before the bye round, the All Blacks proved to be a level above the Wallabies with an easy win in Wellington and the Pumas achieved their first ever home win against South Africa in Salta. The All Blacks are on a streak like no other at the moment, really playing some of their best rugby. They are so far ahead of any other team in World Rugby, statistically speaking, other teams seem handicapped when they play them. I can’t see the Pumas causing an upset this weekend, but the Wallabies and Springboks are both under huge amounts of pressure, so it will be interesting to see who prevails at the cauldron of Suncorp Stadium. From a betting standpoint, it has been a tough start to the tournament, but you have to stick to your systems and strategies and I’m hoping to turn things around this weekend. Don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of International rugby.
Best Bet 1: NZ second half handicap -11.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.81 – Sportsbet
*Additional plays will be added on twitter once all markets have been released
New Zealand ($1.04) vs Argentina ($11.00)
Round three kicks off on Saturday afternoon with a clash between New Zealand and Argentina at the FMG Stadium in Waikato. The All Blacks currently lead the four-team competition having beaten Australia in Sydney with bonus points in round one (42-8) and in Wellington (29-9) in round two. Argentina recorded their first win of the tournament with a confidence-building 26-24 win over South Africa in Salta having gone down in Cape Town the week prior. The Pumas are yet to beat the All Blacks from 22 attempts, with the All Blacks winning last year’s clash 39-18 in Christchurch.
New Zealand (2016): WWWWW
Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Kieran Read (Captain), Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Ryan Crotty, Malakai Fekitoa, Israel Dagg, Ben Smith
Substitutes: Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Luke Romano, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Aaron Cruden, Anton Lienert-Brown
Argentina (2016): WWLLW
Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Agustin Creevy (Captain), Ramiro Herrera, Guido Petti, Matias Alemanno, Pablo Matera, Javier Ortega Desio, Facundo Isa, Martin Landajo, Nicholas Sanchez, Santiago Cordero, Juan Martin Hernandez, Matias Orlando, Matias Moroni, Joaquin Tuculet
Substitutes: Julian Montoya, Lucas Noguera, Enrique Pieretto, Marcos Kremer, Leonardo Senatore, Tomas Cubelli, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Ramiro Moyano
Prediction:
The All Blacks have started the tournament strongly scoring ten tries from their two matches, in comparison to Argentina’s four against the Springboks. In saying that, the Pumas have managed 32 line breaks, sitting second to the home team this weekend (40). The All Blacks only conceded one try to the Wallabies both home and away, so it will be interesting to see if the Pumas can offer more of a threat on attack. A strong attack is usually the byproduct of a stable set piece and the Pumas are known for their scrumming ability, but statistically they are the worst of the four teams so far this tournament, only winning 77% of their own ball in comparison to the All Blacks who sit at 92%. I put some of this down to the fact that loosehead prop Marcos Ayerza, who currently plies his trade in Europe, isn’t available for selection.
Despite the All Blacks successes so far this season, they have still managed to blood a number of new faces. As a result, New Zealand coach Steve Hansen has opted for consistency this week with just one change to the starting fifteen. Ryan Crotty returns from a head-knock and that shifts Anton Lienert-Brown, a player who had a great first Test match, to the bench. Codie Taylor also comes onto the replacements bench for James Parsons and Luke Romano looks likely to get some game time off the pine. Their pack remains rock-solid, their halves combination is the best in the world and their outside backs have the ability to tear you to shreds if you are only slightly off your game. The bench showcases New Zealand’s depth as they are all players that can come on and make a difference, whether they are ten points down (extremely rare) or ten points ahead.
Argentinian coach Daniel Hourcade has made three changes to his team to play New Zealand. Lock Thomas Lavanini (replaced by Guido Petti), Juan Manuel Leguizamon (replaced by Javier Ortega Desio) and Manuel Montero (replaced by Matias Moroni) haven’t made the trip to Australasia due to injury. Nahaz Tetaz Chaparro and captain Agustin Creevy both had wonderful games in Salta, adding some good ball carries and breakdown work to their set piece. Pablo Matera and Facundo Isa are two young and dangerous components to the Pumas back row and Martin Landajo is doing a good job keeping out Tomas Cubelli from the starting team. Nicolas Sanchez, Santiago Cordero and Joaquin Tuculet offer the blue and whites a lot of X-factor and speed, an area where they could potentially challenge the All Blacks (in a line race), but first they need to manipulate the All Blacks defense to create the extra space. One area that does concern me however is their bench depth given that they can’t call upon their European-based players, so I think this is where they are going to get outplayed in the second half.
The All Blacks remain the only team that the Pumas have never defeated and I can’t see that changing this weekend. Argentina’s poor ball security and penalty discipline are two areas that the All Blacks will feast on if they are given the opportunity. The Argentinians will do their best to slow down the All Blacks ball at the breakdown, but with a wobbly set piece and some decent travel under their belts, New Zealand should cruise to a comfortable 20-point victory and highlight how ineffective the Springboks have been over the past two rounds.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.04 – William Hill
Best Bet 1: NZ second half handicap -11.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.81 – Sportsbet
Australia ($1.65) vs South Africa ($2.30)
The following match sees Australia host South Africa on Saturday night at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. Both teams are under equal pressure with the Wallabies going down 9-29 in Wellington to the All Blacks and the Springboks lost their first ever match in Argentina (24-26), after a woeful performance at the Estadio Martearena. Since 2012, the Springboks have won four of the seven matches played, however, the Springboks haven’t beaten the Wallabies in Australia since 2013, a game that was also played at Suncorp Stadium.
Australia (2016): LLLLL
Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (Captain), Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Adam Coleman, Dean Mumm, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Reece Hodge, Bernard Foley, Samu Kerevi, Dane Haylett-Petty, Israel Folau
Substitutes: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Alan Alaalatoa, Rory Arnold, Lopeti Timani, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Tevita Kuridrani, Drew Mitchell (one to be omitted)
South Africa (2016): LWWWL
Tendai Mtawawira, Adriaan Strauss (Captain), Lourens Adriaanse, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Francois Louw, Oupa Mohoje, Warren Whiteley, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Francois Hougaard, Juan de Jong, Jesse Kriel, Bryan Habana, Johan Goosen
Substitutes: Bongi Mbonambi, Trevor Nyakane, Steven Kitshoff, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jaco Kriel, Morne Steyn, Lionel Mapoe
Prediction:
As I’ve alluded to before, both Australia and South Africa are under huge amounts of pressure this weekend. Including last year’s World Cup Final, the Wallabies have lost six Test matches in a row. In the last 18 months, the Springboks have lost to Wales (away), Ireland (home), Argentina (home and away), the All Blacks, Australia and the one you might remember, Japan at the RWC. It would be fair to say that Australia has had a much harder draw as of late, which should hold them in good stead, but another loss and the knives will start to be sharpened.
Looking at the team named by Michael Cheika, Australia has made just the two changes to the starting 15, showing faith in his players that struggled against the All Blacks. Dean Mumm comes into the number six jumper in place of Scott Fardy and utility-back Reece Hodge will start his first Test match on the left wing. What still amazes me is that even though the Wallabies haven’t been anywhere near their best, Michael Cheika insists on playing as many as five players out of position (compared to where they have played the whole season in Super Rugby). How this is good for a continuity or from a familiarity perspective is beyond me because anyone who has played the game understands that it takes time to adjust and appreciate the nuances of each position. The ‘Pooper’ combination of Michael Hooper and David Pocock has been tried and tested, with not much success since the Rugby World Cup, however, I believe that style of play will work wonders against the Springboks. South Africa’s pack is big, but they sacrifice speed as a result. The Springboks have been ineffective at the breakdown so far this season, which is a surprise given that it is usually one of their biggest strengths. Francois Louw has been below his best, Teboho Mohoje is a tackling machine leading the tournament with 30, and Warren Whitely is more of a workhorse and an attacker. Pocock is nearly impossible to move once he has set his base and if the Springboks don’t have supporting players around the ball-carrier, both he and Hooper will have a field day stealing balls at the breakdown. At the time of writing, the bench has not been finalised.
Springbok coach Alastair Coetzee has made has made four changes to the team that faired poorly in Salta. In the front row, the penguin, Lourens Adriaanse comes in for his first Test start in place of Vincent Koch. Otherwise, the front row remains unchanged. Eben Etzebeth will become the youngest Springbok ever to reach 50 Test caps, but the Springboks man-of-the-match in Salta Pieter-Steph du Toit hasn’t managed to find himself a start. Interestingly, the Springboks didn’t try a rolling maul once against the Pumas in Salta, an area of their game that often drives fear into their opposition. Faf de Klerk has been the heartbeat of Springbok rugby this season and Coetzee has persisted with Elton Jantjies at flyhalf. However, Damien de Allende (dropped) and Lionel Mapoe (bench) are casualties from the Salta loss with Springbok Sevens star Juan de Jong and Jesse Kriel selected in the centres. I don’t know if I necessarily agree with this move, but Coetzee is obviously looking for more purchase both offensively and defensively from his 12 and 13 combination. The loss of Ruan Combrinck is a blow, but he is replaced by the versatile Francois Hougaard who now plays his football in Worcester in the UK. The selection of Hougaard has allowed the Springboks to adopt a 6-2 forwards-heavy split on the bench, as they are expecting a big battle up front. Lions lock Franco Mostert finds himself back in the 23, alongside Morne Steyn, another player I feel the Springboks need to stop persisting with, looking ahead to the next RWC.
Dating back until 1971, the Wallabies have a very strong record against the Springboks at Suncorp Stadium with the visitors only winning once since 1971 (from ten matches). Additionally, the Wallabies have only dropped three home Test matches to the Springboks since the turn of the millennium. Having assessed the teams and their form lines, it is a difficult match to predict. The Springboks have the edge up front at set piece time, but the Wallabies have the weapons to stifle the Springboks at the breakdown. Both halves pairings have been hot and cold this season, but Will Genia and Quade Cooper have the familiarity of playing so many years together at Suncorp Stadium for the Reds. Both backlines are dicey in my opinion and far from the best combinations that they could’ve potentially put out. If I was forced to pick a result, I would choose the Wallabies 1-12, but I couldn’t do it with any great certainty. This week, I’m more interested to see which team bounces back and how they go about their business.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.65 – Luxbet
