The Rugby Championship heads into the second week of competition this weekend where we will see the return leg of round one. Last weekend, The All Blacks were simply sensational, whereas, the Wallabies looked to have carried over their poor form against England, in a huge home defeat to their old foes in Sydney. In what appears to be a trend for South African rugby in recent months, the home team left it extremely late to beat Argentina in Nelspruit, but for 70 minutes, Pumas fans would’ve been more than happy from the effort shown by their representatives. Either way, it seems like everyone bar the All Blacks are playing for the ‘first loser’ tag. From a betting standpoint, none of my three plays cashed for a disappointing weekend, but you live and you learn and I am hoping to turn things around on Saturday in Wellington and on Sunday morning in Salta. Don’t forget to follow me (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of International rugby.
Best Bet 1: South Africa -2.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.92 – Crownbet (early twitter play)
Additional plays for New Zealand vs Australia and NRC plays will be posted on twitter
New Zealand ($1.07) vs Australia ($8.50)
The second round of The Rugby Championship gets underway at Westpac Stadium in Wellington on Saturday evening between New Zealand and Australia. The return match and second installment of the 2016 Bledisloe Cup comes after the All Blacks handed the Wallabies their biggest home defeat in almost 50 years. The red hot All Blacks thumped the hapless home side, 42-8, built on the back of a devastating first half team performance. They ran in six tries to one, on a night that showed the rugby world, just how far New Zealand is ahead of everyone else. The win means that the All Blacks are only a home win away from securing the Bledisloe Cup for the 14th consecutive season.
Australia (2016): LLLL
Scott Sio, Stephen Moore (Captain), Sekope Kepu, Kane Douglas, Adam Coleman, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, David Pocock, Will Genia, Quade Cooper, Dane Haylett-Petty, Bernard Foley, Samu Kerevi, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Israel Folau
Substitutes: Tatafu Polota-Nau, James Slipper, Alan Alaalatoa, Dean Mumm, Will Skelton, Nick Phipps, Tevita Kuridrani, Reece Hodge
New Zealand (2016): WWWW
Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Kieran Read (Captain), Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, Anton Lienert-Brown, Malakai Fekitoa, Israel Dagg, Ben Smith
Substitutes: James Parsons, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Liam Squire, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Aaron Cruden, Seta Tamanivalu
Prediction:
Anyway you look at it, the All Blacks put on a master-class against the Wallabies in Sydney. As Steve Hansen said, it was still a tough game, but the All Blacks were good enough to capitalise on their opportunities and they did a great job of pressuring the Aussies and creating their own luck. It was a game that was being built as the one the Wallabies could win and the All Blacks came out and inflicted hell on the home team. Last week, ten of the selected Australia team featured in last year’s win over New Zealand and a further three were Rugby World Cup Final started in 2015. Three of the All Blacks in Beauden Barrett (116), Waisake Naholo (111) and Israel Dagg (104) made over 100 metres carrying the ball, whereas none of the Wallabies were able to rack up more than 50 metres.
Australia’s general skill levels were poor and this does concern me given that the team spent almost a month together preparing for this tournament. The fundamentals can never be overlooked and the All Blacks showed how easy they can make it look when you are clinical and chose the right options, whether you are under pressure or not. Mick Byrne, the skills guru that helped New Zealand achieve so much success is now in the Wallabies camp and he will be well aware of the improvements that need to be made. I doubt we will see too much of it this tournament, but by the end of the year, his influence should be evident. Match fitness was always going to be a problem and the fact that they lost Matt Giteau early, followed shortly after by Matt Toomua and then Rob Horne, the Wallabies were certainly robbed of experience and made them reactive instead of being able to dictate play.
Any rugby match starts up front and Michael Cheika needs to start veering away from his favourites and focusing on the set piece. In particular, they were woeful at lineout time and once the All Blacks gained the ascendancy, there was no looking back. The combination of Michael Hooper and David Pocock needs to be examined because even though they did play well individually, it hampered their lineout and their genuine lack of ball carrying optio6ns. Outside centre Tevita Kuridrani has had a sub-standard year and coughed up way too many balls on attack, but he must get credit for jointly topping the tackle count of round one with 17. The real area of concern relates to the Wallabies general kicking and their exit strategy. The All Blacks scored 22 points and four tries directly off the Wallabies poor execution when trying to relieve pressure off the boot. To add to this, three of their kicks were charged down with one leading to Jerome Kaino’s try.
As a result, Michael Cheika has made five changes to the starting team and one positional switch. Rob Simmons has been dropped back to the NRC after his poor lineout leadership last weekend and he is replaced by Adam Coleman, a player with real promise. Scott Fardy comes back into the team at blindside flanker replacing Ben McCalman, which should give the home team another genuine lineout option. The real talking point is the selection of Quade Cooper – a player who has had a miserable time against the All Blacks in New Zealand. There is a lot of pressure on him to perform at ten, especially given the fact that he hasn’t played for almost four months. The only real positive will be his combination with halfback Will Genia. Bernard Foley has been shifted out to 12, another baffling decision. Sure it gives the Wallabies that second play-maker option, but he is out of position and you can only expect the All Blacks to target the channel between him and Quade, sucking in defenders, before sending the ball wide to punish the outside defenders who will more than likely be caught in no man’s land. Samu Kerevi is a good option at 13 and needs time in the national setup and Dane Haylett-Petty and Israel Folau both need to be more effective on attack and with their boots. On the bench, Will Skelton comes in as a reserve lock and Reece Hodge has been rewarded for a consistent Super Rugby season with a spot on the pine.
The All Blacks have had to endure a horrible run of injury so early on in the International Test season with Nathan Harris (season), Codie Taylor (head knock), Ryan Crotty (head knock), George Moala (knee) and Waisake Naholo all already unavailable. Despite all of the injury concerns, Hansen has made five changes and one positional switch, with four of those affecting the starting lineup. Joe Moody returns from injury to replace Wyatt Crockett at prop, Julian Savea replaces the injured Waisake Naholo and Anton Lienert-Brown will get his first All Black cap at the age of 21 at inside centre. He has been a consistent performer for the Chiefs this season and is fundamentally sound, so it will be interesting to see how he combines with Beauden Barrett and Malakai Fekitoa in the first instance. James Parsons comes onto the bench as a hooker replacement, as done Lienert-Brown’s centre partner at the Chiefs, Seta Tamanivalu, a player who secured two caps against Wales in June. Another positional change will see Israel Dagg move to the wing, with Ben Smith at fullback. I feel that this is a real smart play by Hansen and one that hasn’t got a lot of airtime in the build-up.
New Zealand currently has 12 consecutive wins under their belt with an average score in those fixtures equating to 41-14. Their all-time winning record stands at 17 in the 1960’s (average of 20-8), and 2013-2014 with an average score of 32-17, which shows not only how they have tightened up their defence, but how their already impressive attack has continued to improve. The All Blacks have been ranked number one in the world for the past 6 years, having only lost six matches from their last 85 (90.6% win rate). This of course, included two Rugby World Cups. The Wallabies last won in New Zealand against the All Blacks at Carisbrook in 2001 and the last time they won in Wellington (against NZ) was the year prior. Both teams have been struck down by injuries and the Wallabies have to be better this weekend. The weather doesn’t look like it is going to play its part, which might help the Wallabies, but looking at the way the Hurricanes handled the conditions in Super Rugby, that is debatable. I’m sure there will be an improvement, from both teams, but the All Blacks will once again be a step or two ahead as they have been since the turn of the millennium and they should win by double digits in the nation’s capital.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win and win the Bledisloe Cup @ $1.07 – Luxbet
South Africa ($1.60) vs Argentina ($2.30)
The final match on Sunday morning (Australia time) sees Argentina host South Africa at the Estadio Martearena Stadium in Salta. Last weekend in Nelspruit, the Springboks once again stole victory from the jaws of defeat when Warren Whiteley crashed over in the corner in the final minute of the match to win 30-23. The Springboks outscored the visitors three tries to two, but It was a gutsy performance by the Pumas on the road and they will no doubt be looking to give their fans something to cheer about this weekend in front of what should be a hostile crowd.
South Africa (2016): LWWW
Tendai Mtawawira, Adriaan Strauss (Captain), Vincent Koch, Eben Etzebeth, Lood de Jager, Francois Louw, Oupa Mohoje, Warren Whiteley, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, Bryan Habana, Damien de Allende, Lionel Mapoe, Ruan Combrinck, Johan Goosen
Substitutes: Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff, Lourens Adriaanse, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jaco Kriel, Rudy Paige, Morne Steyn, Jesse Kriel
Argentina (2016): WWLL
Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Agustin Creevy (Captain), Ramiro Herrera, Matias Alemanno, Tomas Lavanini, Pablo Matera, Juan Manuel Leguizamon, Facundo Isa, Martin Landajo, Nicholas Sanchez, Manuel Montero, Juan Martin Hernandez, Matias Orlando, Santiago Cordero, Joaquin Tuculet
Substitutes: Julian Montoya, Filipe Arregui, Enrique Pieretto, Guido Petti, Javier Ortega Desio, Tomas Cubelli, Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias, Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino
Prediction:
Last week’s match made for some interesting viewing to see where both the Springboks and the Pumas are currently at, mentally, physically and tactically. Argentina dominated possession 55% to 45%, but the Springboks definitely had the edge territorially. Argentina were effective with ball in hand making almost 4.5 metres per carry, they beat 22 defenders, made 14 clean line breaks and they were dominant when it came to offloading and keeping the ball alive. The turnover count was very high for both teams with the Springboks spilling the ball on 15 occasions to the Pumas 17, which made patches of the match very stop-start. Discipline was once again crucial in Argentina’s demise and they will have to tidy that up or they could be facing being shutout in this year’s tournament. Some missed kicks at goal by both Johan Goosen and Elton Jantjies for the Springboks certainly kept Argentina in the game though and they will need to improve their goal-kicking ahead of this week’s match.
Pumas coach Daniel Hourcade has named an unchanged starting lineup.
Springbok coach Alastair Coetzee has retained the faith in his players for the clash in Salta with just the one injury-enforced change to the starting fifteen. Vincent Koch comes in for Julian Redelinghuys at tighthead prop with Lourens Adriaanse in line for his second Springbok cap off the bench. The other change sees Morne Steyn replace Juan de Jong on the bench. I question why the South African coaching staff persist with Steyn. He has had his time with the Springboks and they need to be blooding some other players before it gets too late.
In Nelspruit, the Springboks largely dominated at scrum-time, their lineout was solid, but their breakdown work was messy and forced Faf de Klerk to make something out of nothing, more often than not. The impact of the bench was impressive with the likes of Jaco Kriel and Pieter-Steph du Toit continuing on their fine form this season. The Pumas will be buoyed by the fact that they are back at home and they will be a much tougher proposition this week. However, I expect Alastair Coetzee and the Springboks to have taken away some real learnings from last week and their strong record in Argentina and the difference in class says to me that they will be able to win this match by more than a score.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.68 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: South Africa -2.5 (vs Argentina) @ $1.92 – Crownbet (early twitter play)
