This weekend marks the end of the 2013 season for a number of teams with only Wales to play Australia and the flying Fijians to take on a star-studded Barbarians outfit next week at Twickenham in London. Last week got off to a rough start and two last-minute tries ruined two of my best bets, however, it was still a profitable weekend nonetheless, with an overall record of 4 – 3. This weekend sees a number of ‘one-sided’ matches, but all eyes will be on the Stade de France when France clashes with South Africa clash and the All Blacks travel to Dublin to face Ireland in the quest of a perfect season, something that hasn’t been achieved in the professional era. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck!
Best Bet 1: Samoa -14.5 (vs Georgia) x 2 units – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Italy to win (vs Argentina) @ $2.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Total Tries – Over 2.5 (Italy vs Argentina) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: Australia -10.5 (vs Scotland) @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 5: South Africa -6.0 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 6: Total Points Over 39.5 (South Africa vs France) @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Please Note: New Zealand vs Ireland plays will be updated on Sunday when all markets have been released
Italy ($2.06) versus Argentina ($2.10)
It will be a battle of the desperates at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome this weekend when the Azzurri host the Pumas. Last week, Italy was involved in a bizarre encounter in Cremona, where they held on to beat an ill-disciplined Fijian side 37 – 31. Conversely, Argentina failed to score a try and were thumped by a fired up and clinical Welsh outfit 40 – 6. These teams don’t meet very often having only clashed on 18 occasions, but in 2012 in a one-off clash in San Juan (Argentina), the Pumas prevailed 37 – 22, thanks largely to 17 points scored by the newly retired Felipe Contepomi.
Italy
Last weekend, I was quite confident that Italy had all the weapons in their arsenal to wreak havoc against the flying Fijians and I was right for 70 minutes of the contest. It was a heated affair that saw the Fijians reduced to 11 men for a short period of time after some reckless play, so for Italy not to run in a cricket score really doesn’t paint a good picture of Italian rugby. When playing with a four-man advantage, Italy bizarrely opted for a shot at goal, perhaps showing their lack of confidence in their attacking ability. After taking a 30 – 10 lead, the Fijians displayed great grit and determination to claw their way back into the contest, but at the end of the day, Sergio Parisse and Martin Castrogiovanni got the victory in a less than memorable 100th appearance for their nation.
Coach Jacques Brunel has made three changes to the match day fifteen with one of them injury-enforced. Italian centre Luca Morisi had to undergo emergency surgery after the match on Saturday, after a crunching tackle from Asaeli Tikoirotuma damaged his spleen. Other than Morisi, Mauro Bergamasco has been dropped for Robert Barbieri, Gonzalo Canale shifts to inside centre and Michele Campagnaro has been drafted into outside centre. Former Scotland Under 20 World Cup representative Tomasso Allan has been handed his run-on debut in the fly half jersey, which is quite ambitious given that he usually plays on the wing for his club team Perpignan in France. Martin Castrogiovanni and Captain Sergio Parisse will continue to lead from the front and should they feature in next year’s RBS 6 Nations, it will be for a record-equalling 103rd cap. The retired Andrea Lo Cicero currently holds that record and he retired earlier this year.
Argentina
Before the International season began in June, I predicted Argentina to have an ordinary Rugby Championship campaign and that they did, losing six matches to their southern-hemisphere superiors. Then, I gave them a chance to improve in the northern hemisphere fixtures, but they have failed to create any momentum and have done nothing to give their fans confidence heading into the Rugby World Cup in two years time. Their once staunch defence has come unstuck leaking 71 points from their last two games and they have only managed to score 18 points through six penalty goals, which is extremely poor.
Newly instated coach Daniel Hourcade has made six changes, with some of those being position switches for the match this weekend. Unfortunately for the visitors, they will be without their first-choice centre pairing of Marcelo Bosch and Santiago Fernandez, and also can’t call upon giant lock Patricio Albacete as a result of their European club commitments. Not having Bosch will be a huge blow after a pretty good season and his long-range goal kicking ability is sure to be missed. Bath winger Horacio Agulla will now partner Gabriel Azcarate in an untested centre partnership with the speedster Lucas Gonzales Amorosino coming onto the right wing. In the forwards, Benjamin Macome an Argentinian base player replaces the up and coming Pablo Matera in the back row and Captain Juan Manuel Leguizamon moves to the blindside of the scrum. With a record of zero wins and 10 losses this season, the match against Italy will provide them with their best opportunity to record their maiden victory in Rome, but by no means is it a certainty.
Prediction:
Argentina holds the edge over Italy having won 12 out of the 18 matches played (with one draw) to date. Both teams have extremely leaky defensive systems so it will be interesting to see which team can exploit their opposition’s weaknesses more effectively. Both teams also pride themselves on their scrumming ability so the contest in the set piece will be fierce. Argentina have had the luxury of playing the world’s best over the course of the year, but they have looked tired in recent weeks and with a number of their players unavailable due to club commitments, I will pick Italy to prevail by a small margin in wet conditions.
Predicted result: Italy to win @ $2.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Italy to win @ $2.06 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Total Tries – Over 2.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Scotland ($6.80) versus Australia ($1.19)
Scottish fans will flock to Murrayfield on Saturday evening, perhaps not in droves, where they will hope their team puts in a better performance against a Wallabies team that is slowly growing in confidence. After being comprehensively outclassed by the Springboks last week, Scotland failed to score a single point for the first time since 2007, when the All Blacks beat them at the same venue. Australia on the other hand has appeared to turn a corner and after putting 50 points on Italy, last weekend the Wallabies punished an awful Irish team 32 – 15. The last time these two teams met was in Newcastle in 2011, when the Scottish miraculously beat Australia in torrid conditions that only saw 15 points scored in the game.
Scotland
The match against the Springboks won’t feature in any of Scotland’s seasonal highlight packages and it will be a match that they will want to forget very quickly. Alastair Strokosh and Jim Hamilton had huge games, but the rest of the team failed to deliver any real value or substance. Rookie International coach Scott Johnson must be wondering how he is going to get the most out of his troops, but he’ll need to make some mindset changes and sharpen his team’s skills fast if they are to improve on a year that has promised a lot, but once again failed to deliver. One of area of the game the Scots will be working on overtime will be the lineout. It must be said that the Springboks do have one of the best set pieces in world rugby, but the Scot’s defensive lineout performance was a shambles, and South Africa’s main weapon the rolling maul, was too easily constructed and then delivered without much resistance. Like a number of others pitches in European rugby, namely the Millennium Stadium and the Stade de France, Murrayfield was dangerously unkempt and like former England flanker Peter Winterbottom stated on Planet Rugby, it was a miracle that there wasn’t any more injuries suffered other than to Francois Louw, especially when nearly two tonnes are constantly engaging at scrum time in wet weather.
What many people might not realise is that Scotland are also unable to call on approximately 11 players due to a retched run of injuries during the club season so far. After a promising cameo off the bench last week against the Springboks (despite two handling errors), Duncan Weir has been preferred to Ruaridh Jackson in the flyhalf jersey. Otherwise, the backline remains unchanged, as Tommy Seymour has recovered from a leg injury during the week. Scotland’s hardman and captain Kelly Brown returns to the fray this week and he will accompany John Beattie and Dave Denton in the back row, and if Scotland are to record their third successive win against the Wallabies, those three players will need to have standout games. Coach Scott Johnson has had a tough Autumn International initiation, but if they can find a way to outplay an understrength Australian team, last week’s dismal display will well and truly be forgotten.
Australia
I think the European press has really gotten it wrong this week by focusing on Ireland’s atrocious display as opposed to giving the Wallabies credit where credit is due. However, just as things were looking more positive for Australian rugby, Ewen McKenzie has dropped a bombshell by suspending six players (Adam Ashley-Cooper, Nick Cummins, Tatafu Polota-Nau, Liam Gill, Benn Robinson and Paddy Ryan) and nine others (Kane Douglas, Dave Dennis, Saia Fainga’a, Bernard Foley, Nick Phipps, Scott Fardy, Mike Harris, Ben McCalman and Nick White) were given either written or verbal reprimands for late night escapades in Dublin last week. It is clear that Ewen McKenzie is hell-bent on creating a culture and an environment where his players can thrive without the affect of midweek partying. It must’ve been heart-warming for coach Ewen McKenzie to see senior players like Stephen Moore, James Horwill, Will Genia and Quade Cooper obey team rules. To compound issues, Tevita Kuridrani who has had a breakout season and really added an extra dimension to the Wallabies backline has been ruled out due do to a reckless tip-tackle on Irish fullback Rob Kearney. Kuridrani has been suspended for five weeks but will be available for the ACT Brumbies first match of the 2014 Super Rugby season. Matt Toomua, one of Australian rugby’s rising stars has also been sent home due to injury.
Despite the unavailability of a plethora of players this week, McKenzie has still managed to name an unchanged forward pack. Their forwards have played very well this series (apart from the England match) with James Slipper, Scott Fardy and Michael Hooper having exceptional games against the Irish in Dublin. The backline is extremely depleted, however, they will still be marshalled around on what will still be an appalling pitch by Reds superstars Will Genia and Quade Cooper. The centre combination of Mike Harris at inside centre and Christian Leali’ifano at the unfamiliar position of outside centre ensure there are three capable standoffs in the backline, which certainly appears to be overkill. Promising youngster Chris Feauai-Sautia, who scored on his debut against the Springboks will be on one wing, with Joe Tomane on the other. Perhaps the find of world rugby this year and without doubt one of the best players in the game, tri-code convert Israel Folau will once again play at fullback and his time in AFL has certainly made him have the safest pair of hands under the highball, the game has ever seen. There are three half backs in the squad, so I expect to see Genia pulled late in the second half and Nick Phipps might get a run on the wing if required.
Prediction
Scotland are the current holders of the Hopetoun Cup, a trophy specifically made for matches between these two nations. Rather surprisingly, Scotland has won the past two fixtures in extremely low scoring and highly unentertaining affairs (6 – 9 and 9 – 8). The disciplinary bombshell that hit the Wallabies this week is sure to have some effect on the momentum they have generated over the past two fixtures. However, despite missing a number of form players and having to name a makeshift backline, they should have too much class for a Scottish team that was simply awful last weekend against the Springboks.
Predicted result: Australia to win @ $1.19 – Betfair
Best Bet 4: Australia -10.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
France ($3.55) versus South Africa ($1.44)
One of the matches of the weekend will take place at the Stade de France on Saturday evening when the French will face a constantly improving South African outfit that has had their best season since 2009. Last week in Le Harve, a French team that rested a number of their big guns unconvincingly beat Tonga 38 – 18. Last weekend in Edinburgh, the Springboks arguably produced their best display of the year, beating Scotland 28 – 0 in a rain-affected affair. Having beaten South Africa three times in succession, the last time these two teams met was in Cape Town in 2010 where the Springboks walloped Les Bleus 42 – 17 in a five tries to two victory.
France
The unpredictable nature of the French national team has made it very hard for tippers and punters over the years. For instance, they finished in last place during this year’s RBS 6 Nations, yet they played well enough to nearly halt the All Blacks winning run only two weeks ago. The French rested a number of their big guns last week and although they still managed to win by 20 points, it wasn’t a performance that yielded much admiration. Like the hosts did against the All Blacks, they will throw everything they have at the South Africans, especially at scrum time, an area that they are renowned for. This is reiterated by the fact that the French has won the most scrum penalties and conceded the fewest over the past twelve months and in turn, Coenie Oosthuizen is directly in the firing line this weekend. France will head into this fixture knowing that they haven’t lost to the Springboks at home since 1997, but it would be fair to say that the current crop of South Africans are on another level to the teams that have toured their over the last ten years.
Ex-French winger and now coach Philippe Saint-Andre has retained the same composition to the team that fell just short of the All Blacks two weeks ago, barring last week’s man of the match against Tonga, Sofiane Guitoune who retains his spot on the wing having scored one try and setting up another. The wolverine look-a-like Maxime Medard is the only player not to back up against the world’s second best team. The tight five remains strong, however, their size does mean they are less versatile around the field, and captain Thierry Dusautoir will be joined by Wenceslas Lauret and Damien Chouly in the back row, with the former arguably the best on the park against the All Blacks. Wins over Scotland and Tonga are they only achievements of Les Bleu’s 2013, but a win over the Springboks would be the perfect way for them to finish a largely forgettable year.
South Africa
The Springboks have won 9 out of their eleven test matches this year, with both losses coming against the All Blacks in somewhat closely contested encounters. It is a record that they would easily settle for and Heyneke Meyer and his fellow coaching staff have begun moulding a squad that appears to be more powerful, skilful and versatile than the majority of the groups that have come before them. Captain Jean de Villiers has been one of the cornerstones of the Springboks backline this year and quite possibly had his best season ever. He provides a balance of strength and pace and his leadership qualities have vindicated Heyneke Meyer’s decision to give him the on-field reins. Their shutout of Scotland last week was impressive on all levels, but it must be said that with the wealth of possession and territory they acquired, the margin of victory scoreboard should’ve much far greater. South Africa have been huge in the physicality stakes (pardon the pun) this year and they will need to be at their best, win the collisions and advance over the gain line if they are to force the French into submission in Paris.
Heyneke Meyer has decided to make six changes to his squad for this game, most notably bringing back points-scoring machine Morne Steyn from injury in place of Patrick Lambie. The core of the squad remains the same and ten players will have featured in every match this year. Bismarck du Plessis and Tendai Mtawarira will be joined in the front row by Coenie Oosthuizen in the unfamiliar position of tight head prop. This is one area that South Africa is uncertain of who will succeed Jannie du Plessis, hence the risk of playing Oosthuizen. The impressive Eben Etzebeth returns to the team to partner Flip van der Merwe in the second row and Francois Louw has made a swift recovery from injury and joins Willem Alberts and Duane Vermuelen in the back row. Fourie du Preez, a man of the match winner in two of the five matches he has been involved in this year, is ineligible to play this weekend due to contractual issues with his Japanese club, but Ruan Pienaar, a star of northern hemisphere rugby over the past few season gets another opportunity for his country. The pair’s stranglehold of the Springboks number nine jersey has seen a number of their understudies (Rory Kockott, Michael Claasens, Neil de Kock etc.) leave South African shores to further their careers, however due to South Africa’s lenient policy of selecting overseas players, should the incumbents get injured, chances of a call up are potentially around the corner. Jean de Villiers will extend his record of being the most capped centre in Springboks rugby history and will accompany Jacques Fourie in the centres. Bryan Habana and JP Pietersen form a formidable wing partnership and Willie le Roux, the find of Springbok rugby this season and match of the match last week will play at fullback.
Prediction:
This matchup on Saturday marks the 100-year anniversary of clashes between South Africa and France, with the visitors having won 21, lost 11 and remarkably drawn 11 times. There are a number of Springboks players that won’t necessarily find playing at the Stade de France a daunting task, given their victory in the 2007 RWC final against England. With a number of the home side’s stars returning to the starting line up this week, the home crowd will be hopeful of their heroes reproducing a performance similar to what they did against the All Blacks two weeks ago. However, this South African side is on the rise and they have proved time and time again that they are without a doubt the second best team in world rugby, and I feel that this will once again be the case this weekend.
Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.44 – Betfair
Best Bet 5: South Africa -6.0 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 6: Total Points Over 39.5 @ $1.87 – Sportsbet
Ireland ($30.00) versus New Zealand ($1.04)
The Irish will have the last opportunity of any team to attempt to end the All Blacks perfect season at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Sunday. Judging on Ireland’s performance against the Wallabies last weekend (15 – 32), local fans will have very little confidence that their beloved team can beat New Zealand and this is reflected in the short odds that bookies will pay out for an All Blacks win. Last weekend in London, the All Blacks avenged their unexpected loss to England in 2012 with a 30 – 22 victory at Twickenham. These two teams met during a three Test match series in New Zealand last year, where the All Blacks managed to win all three including a 60 – 0 thumping in the third test in Hamilton.
Ireland
Irish journalists and their fans have lambasted the men in green after last week’s spiritless performance against Australia in Dublin. If the Wallabies scored four tries, you would expect the All Blacks to go at least one or two better, unless the home team can turn things around defensively very quickly. Additionally, it has been proven that the only way to beat the All Blacks is to score tries and convert pressure into points off the boot and this certainly wasn’t showcased at the Aviva Stadium against the Wallabies. Over the past two seasons, Ireland has managed to integrate a few youngsters into their squad, namely backs Fergus McFadden and Luke Marshall and flanker Peter O’Mahoney to complement their seasoned veterans (Paul O’Connell, Jamie Heaslip, Brian O’Driscoll, Rob Kearney etc.). Jonathan Sexton’s exit at halftime exposed the host’s lack of depth at flyhalf and Ireland’s British & Irish Lions representatives, really failed to make any significant impact on proceedings.
Despite midweek injury clouds over Brian O’Driscoll and Jonathan Sexton, Joe Schmidt has named both of them to face the All Blacks this week, alongside an unchanged forward pack. The only two changes see Dave Kearney, brother of fullback Rob, replace the injured Fergus McFadden and the veteran Gordon D’Arcy replaces Luke Marshall. The evergreen Brian O’Driscoll will become joint leader in terms of Test caps for Ireland, alongside the retired Ronan O’Gara. Additionally, this could well be his last appearance for his country and what better way to potentially finish off his career, against the world’s best team. If the Irish are to have any chance of causing the upset of the season this weekend, their big names have to front up and collectively the team has to play out of their skins. The Irish crowd can certainly influence proceedings in the match, but should the All Blacks get off to a flyer, as they usually tend to do, it could be another long night at the office for the hosts.
New Zealand
Last weekend’s victory over England marked four years of New Zealand being at the summit of the IRB World Rankings. When Graham Henry took over the All Blacks coaching job in 2004, he moulded New Zealand rugby into world-beaters and won five International Coach of the Year awards in the process. Of course culminating with the Rugby World Cup in 2011. His successor and former assistant coach Steve Hansen had huge boots to fill, but it must be said that the All Blacks have continued to develop and are arguably better than the All Blacks from 2004 – 2011. New Zealand has lost one match over the past two seasons, which is an insurmountable achievement. Everyone knows the All Blacks play a very simplified game. They bash it up in the forwards and exploit defences out wide, either from structured play or on the counterattack. Their efficiency is second to none both on attack and defence and their ability to win cannot be matched by any team in the history of world rugby.
Despite making seven changes to his squad this week, the All Blacks still boast an extremely experienced line up having collectively won 798 Test caps. The All Blacks are without their most recent inductees to the 100-club Dan Carter and Tony Woodcock, and due to the former’s recent run of injuries, a number of people in New Zealand are calling for him to take a seat to let Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett battle it out for the All Blacks famous number ten jersey. Personally, I find this ludicrous given the accolades that Carter has racked up over the years and quite frankly he would walk into any other test team, even if not fully fit. They have been replaced by the diminutive, cancer-surviving Aaron Cruden and serial penalty conceder Wyatt Crockett. Surprisingly, New Zealand’s best back of this campaign Charles Piutau won’t feature this weekend, but they don’t lose too much with the World Cup winning Cory Jane returning on the wing. Steven Luatua continues his rotation with blindside flanker Liam Messam, and the enforcer Luke Romano comes in for Brodie Retallick who has without doubt been one of New Zealand’s most consistent performers this year. Hurricanes halfback TJ Perenara features on the bench and should he get some game time, it will be his first International Test appearance. Number eight Kieran Read has been a player I have singled out all year for either club or country, and week after week he continues to expertly showcase his talents and is a shoe in to win the IRB Player of the Year accolade.
Prediction
In a rare Sunday match, Ireland has the chance to become only the second team to beat the All Blacks in two years. It will be a tall order, especially given their uninspiring performance against the Wallabies last week and the All Blacks are chasing that coveted perfect season after falling to do so last year, after falling at the final hurdle in London. New Zealand has won 31 from their last 33 fixtures (with one of those a draw), but the All Blacks have failed to cover the handicap in their last two fixtures and only narrowly covered it against Japan (0.5) the week before that. However, the All Blacks outclass Ireland across the park and I can see them finishing this season with a bang by really making a statement and strengthening the aura they already possess, two years out from the Rugby World Cup in England.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.03 – Betfair
Please Note: New Zealand vs Ireland plays will be updated on Sunday when all markets have been released
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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