After a mixed bag of matches last weekend, the RBS 6 Nations is well underway with Wales, France and Ireland gaining the early momentum. Heading into round one, I wasn’t overly excited with all six teams only scoring 35 tries in total throughout the duration of the competition in 2013. However, things couldn’t have gotten off to a better start with the three matches thus far yielding a total of 12 tries and 122 points. Wales, the defending champions were disappointing, the Italians were spirited, France and England produced a highly entertaining match that ebbed and flowed to a thrilling finish and Ireland flexed their muscles with a comprehensive victory at home over their Celtic rivals, Scotland. This week sees Ireland host Wales in a blockbuster, Scotland faceoff against England and France welcome Italy at the Stade de France on Sunday. We are only one week away from the commencement of the Super Rugby season, which is without doubt the most entertaining provincial competition in the world (southern hemisphere bias). Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck and I look forward to bringing you my thoughts throughout both the northern and southern hemisphere rugby seasons!
Best Bet 1: Wales +2.5 @ $1.89 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Wales Over 1.5 Tries @ $1.96 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: England -9.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Ireland ($1.87) vs Wales ($2.28)
The Aviva Stadium in Dublin will open up this weekend’s account as Ireland host Wales in what should be a blockbuster encounter. Both teams will be backing up after victories last weekend, however, Ireland will be the team brimming with more confidence after dispatching Scotland 28 – 6, whereas the Red Dragons could only walk away with an eight point victory after squandering a 14-point lead. However, one can’t expect too much from the first week of a competition and it will be interesting to see how both teams approach the game this weekend. Last year, the corresponding fixture occurred in week one, where Ireland beat Wales 30 – 22 in Cardiff, however, after taking an unassailable 30 – 3 lead, the green machine weren’t able to add any points after the break and their fans would’ve been very jittery watching their lead all but slip away.
Ireland:
Ireland head into this fixture with confidence given their good form last weekend, however, a dangerous team of Welsh dragons await. The Irish put on a master class in the scrums against their Celtic rivals and their direction and composure illuminated the influence of coach Joe Schmidt, once a very successful provincial coach for Leinster. In saying that, Ireland will be spending extra hours at training this week working on their lineout, which is no doubt an area that the Welsh will look to spoil once again. This is where one of Schmidt’s changes occurs with captain Paul O’Connell returning after being a late withdrawal before last week’s fixture with a chest infection. The fiery redhead replaces Dan Tuohy, who shifts to the bench. The other alteration sees centre Gordon D’arcy who was controversially benched last week, replace youngster Luke Marshall to take his place alongside the iconic Irishmen Brian O’Driscoll for the 53rd time in test matches. The interplay between the backs and forwards was crucial last weekend, and much of this has to be attributed to the halfback pairing of Jonny Sexton and Conor Murray. Once the platform was laid against Scotland, Murray and Sexton managed to unleash the exciting Rob and Dave Kearney and Andrew Trimble out wide. However, coming up against Alex Cuthbert, George North and Leigh Halfpenny, one of the most dangerous back three in world rugby, will be a huge step up in difficulty this week.
Wales:
Wales will be extremely disappointed with their first match of 2014 and coach Warren Gatland has made three changes to that team that will face Ireland this weekend. One of the cornerstones of the Welsh pack and former skipper Sam Warburton has been recalled at open side flanker in place of Justin Tipuric and another former captain and prop Gethin Jenkins replaces Paul James after their pack was put under pressure at scrum time. The other change is injury-enforced after the sky scraping Luke Charteris went down against Italy and Newport Dragons lock Andrew Coombes gets his first start of the competition. The aforementioned changes bolster the pack and this is an area that they will need to dominate having seen the devastation the Irish eight inflicted on Scotland. The backline remains settled and apart from Jonathan Davies who returns to club rugby this weekend after a few weeks out with a pectoral injury, it is hard to see the any further inclusions for the remainder of the tournament. All in all, this weekend’s match will be an accurate gauge as to whether Wales have dropped off the boil since the highs of the British & Irish Lions tour own under or whether or not they have it in them to make another tilt for a third successive title.
Prediction:
This will most certainly be the match of the round and when looking at all matches played between these two in Ireland, it is not surprising to see why it will be. Both teams are pegged on 27 wins apiece, along with four tantalising draws. We can only hope for a repeat of last year’s encounter, however, in my opinion, the reigning RBS 6 Nations champions have the edge, despite many people considering Ireland to be the dark horse of this year’s competition.
Predicted result: Wales to win @ $1.92 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Wales +2.5 @ $1.89 – Betfair
Best Bet 2: Wales Over 1.5 Tries @ $1.96 – Betfair
Scotland ($7.00) vs England ($1.19)
The final match on Saturday evening sees a gutted English side make the trip north to Murrayfield where they face an out-of-sorts Scottish team for the honour of hoisting the Calcutta Cup. With over 135 years of rugby history and even longer of genuine history, there will be no shortage of passion and pride come Saturday night. Last weekend in Paris, England got off to the worst possible start conceding a try in the opening two minutes before mounting a second half comeback. It wasn’t to be their day however, as the French scored a converted try in the dying minutes to sink English hearts and derail a campaign that has so much promise. Scotland never got going in Dublin and their campaign couldn’t have gotten off to a slower start and my views of them not having what it takes to regularly mix it with the best was affirmed once again. The corresponding fixture last year saw England run rampant scoring four tries to two in a 38 – 18 victory, however, I can see Scotland improving this week.
Scotland:
Although Scotland kept things relatively tight until just after the half-time whistle being down 6 – 11, they were always off the pace and Ireland kicked on with two more second half tries to seal a 22-point win in front of an ecstatic crowd. More often than not, matches are won up front and Scottish assistant coach had every right to lambast his pack post-match. Against teams that are expected to outclass you, it is imperative that you don’t release the pressure valve at anytime because teams like Ireland, England, France and Wales don’t usually need a second invitation. Coach Scott Johnson has understandably made changes, one being in the back row, which I suggested, looked unbalanced last week. Chris Fusaro, someone who was been spoken about in many rugby circles pre-tournament will make his debut in place of Kelly Brown. His role will be quite simple: to boss the breakdown by slowing down or more importantly stealing opposition ball, something the bulkier back rowers weren’t able to achieve last weekend. The other changes see Tommy Seymour replace New Zealand-born Sean Maitland, who has been ruled out for the foreseeable future with knee and ankle injuries. The bulky Matt Scott also returns to solidify the midfield in place of Duncan Taylor. In somewhat surprising news, Richie Gray, once hailed as one of the most promising locks in Europe has been demoted from the bench in favour of his brother, Jonny. Fullback Stuart Hogg, someone I mentioned last week has a big task ahead of him marking England’s Mike Brown and I can assure you the skill and guile of these two players is almost worth the price of admission alone.
England:
England will arrive at Murrayfield amped to keep their season alive and after fighting back from a relatively large deficit, victory was certainly theirs for the taking. The middle 60 minutes saw England play some sublime rugby at times with debutant Jack Nowell making some incisive runs on attack and textbook tackles in defence and Billy Vunipola was monumental across all facets of the game. In general play, England beat more players than any other nation in the opening round, however, their turnover rate was high and they begun and ended the game very poorly. Despite not achieving the lucrative ‘W’, coach Stuart Lancaster has instilled faith in his squad by naming an unchanged starting fifteen and replacements bench. Winger Jonny May will be hoping for more game time this week after being forced from the field early on after breaking his nose against France. England’s pack will face their toughest test so far this season and they will be under pressure if they can’t dominate Scotland as the Irish did in Dublin. In saying that, England’s pack is starting to look formidable and should they all remain on the park, their combinations will gel and they will certainly become a handful for any tier one nation.
Prediction:
Calcutta Cup games are played with copious amounts of passion and aggression and both teams need the result to keep their seasons alive. An area of concern for both fans and players alike this week revolves around the state of the Murrayfield pitch. It is a ground that every rugby tragic needs to see, however, with the volatile winter weather in Edinburgh, there are question marks around whether or not the turf will hold up. Scrum resets not only become monotonous, but increasingly dangerous as two tonnes collide and we can only hope that the match isn’t influenced or decided by dubious penalties.
England has been victors over Scotland on all but three occasions over the last 15 years, so they certainly have the mental and physical edge. England knows that anything other than a win in Edinburgh will not be accepted and after analysis the teams, if the visitors can dominate territorially early on and convert pressure into points, they should outclass the hosts and breathe some life into their campaign, with some crucial fixtures to come.
Prediction: England to win – $1.19 (Betfair)
Best Bet 3: England -9.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
France ($TBC) vs Italy ($TBC)
Preview to follow later today.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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