After two months break, International Test match rugby returns this weekend when the superpowers of northern hemisphere rugby clash in this year’s RBS 6 Nations. Wales are the reigning champions and having won the 2012 tournament as well, they will be out to become the first team to ever win the RBS 6 Nations three years in succession. No team before them has ever achieved the three-peat outright, but France was the last team to win three years in a row, although they shared the 1988 tournament with Wales. The strength gauge of northern hemisphere rugby is often determined by their successes over their main southern hemisphere rivals (Australia, New Zealand and South Africa), and 2013 didn’t paint a pretty picture with only England managing to beat one of the ‘big three’. England and Wales did achieve victories over Argentina, however the Pumas only managed to win one fixture last season against an underperforming Italian outfit. There clearly is a divide between the hemispheres in terms of skill and overall performance, as there has been for a long time, but with the IRB Rugby World Cup to take place in England in 2015, this penultimate year holds extra importance in terms of building some momentum and settling on the right squads and game plans moving forward. One area in which the northern hemisphere arguably trumps their counterparts are their passionate fans and the atmosphere that is generated, whether it be at Twickenham, the Millennium Stadium or the Stade de France just to name a few, is simply breathtaking and something every legitimate rugby fan needs to witness.
I made mention of this last year, but statistically, nine of the fourteen overall winners have played 3 home games in their campaign, leaving Wales, France and Ireland in an advantageous position in 2014 (the tournament doesn’t adopt a home and away format). Last year, France headed into the tournament on the back of sweeping their Autumn International campaign, however, they miraculously were recipients of the dreaded wooden spoon after their worst ever campaign. Wales and England both lost one match each, however, the Red Dragons superior points differential got them over the line and Welsh stalwart Gethin Jenkins had the honour of raising the trophy in front of a boisterous crowd in Cardiff. An interesting and confidence building statistic for French fans points out that France have been the winners of the RBS 6 Nations the last three times after the British & Irish Lions series the year before, but do they really have what it takes? Below I will deconstruct each match from the first round and provide some plays that I believe are favouring us, the punters. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Good luck and I look forward to bringing you my thoughts throughout both the northern and southern hemisphere seasons!
Best Bet 1: Wales -11.5 / England +10.5 @ $1.89 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: England +3.5 @ $1.95 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Ireland vs Scotland Best Bet TBC on Sunday
Wales ($1.04) vs Italy ($12.00)
The Millennium Stadium in Cardiff has the honour of opening up the 2014 RBS 6 Nations when the Italians come to town in front of what should be a packed crowd in Wales. The reigning RBS 6 Nations champions have been branded with the favourites tag for this tournament and when you look at their recent successes, management team and balanced squad, it is hard to argue against them. On the other hand, Italy appear favourites for the dreaded wooden spoon and despite their improvements over the years since their inception into this competition, the domestic systems amongst the other nations and genuine match winners has the Azzurri behind the eight ball. The corresponding fixture last year was played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome and Wales ran out comfortable winners 26 – 9 after a tightly contested first half, which is usually the case for visiting teams.
Wales:
In a case of dèjá vu, the reigning 6 Nations champions had a below par Autumn International series having lost to both Australia and South Africa, managing to unconvincingly beat Tonga, before displaying some of their best rugby of the season when they thrashed a gutless Argentinian outfit in Cardiff. 2013 saw Wales at their best (RBS 6 Nations) and worst (losing to Japan), however, a number of their stars featured heavily in the British & Irish Lions successful Australian sojourn and they remain a formidable threat to any opposition. Recently, Wales’ New Zealand born coach Warren Gatland has put pen to paper and signed a new contract that will see him in charge of the national team until the end of the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. In doing so, he will become the first Welsh Coach to take the Red Dragons to three Rugby World Cups. He clearly believes that this Welsh team can only get better and with a backline consisting of George North, Leigh Halfpenny and Jonathon Davies and a forward pack that mixes some experienced heads with some rising stars, Wales are quickly stamping their authority on Northern Hemisphere rugby.
However, despite how successful they are in the northern hemisphere, Gatland’s winning record of less than 5% against the former Tri-Nations powerhouses is one that will have to improve should want to achieve higher honours in the game. Gatland has selected a formidable forward pack for the competition opener with bulk up front (James, Hibbard, Jones), skyscrapers in the second row (Wyn Jones, Charteris) and scavengers in the loose trio (Lydiate, Tipuric, Faletau). They are supported by some powerful (Roberts) and speedy backs (North, Cuthbert) and one of the games most accurate goal kickers in Leigh Halfpenny. With Tipuric edging out Sam Warburton in the number seven jersey, most likely for his speed to the ruck and pilfering abilities, Alun Wyn Jones will captain Wales from the second row. The composition of the Red Dragons appears to be extremely well balanced and early signs suggest that they could be the first team to achieve the three-peat in the modern era.
Italy:
Led by a captain who is respected far and wide, Italy certainly has it in them to achieve much better results than their 2013 form suggests. Two wins from 10 encounters doesn’t bode well for the season ahead, however, it must be said that Sergio Parisse, a former IRB world player of the year nominee, fights gallantly to give his team go forward ball and defends like a man possessed in the trenches. Italy just doesn’t have the breeding ground and this is evident with players selected that are native to South Africa and Australia and their domestic teams struggling throughout the various European competitions. In a country where soccer (football) commands the majority of local attention, I can’t see Italy featuring in the first tier of rugby rankings consistently, although at home they are a much different prospect as the crowd can often play a huge part in determining the outcome of a match.
Unfortunately for coach Jacques Brunel, the Azzurri are plagued with injuries as a result of some tough European encounters in recent weeks. As you would expect with any Italian team, the front row is strong and is anchored by the woolly-haired veteran Martin Castrogiovanni. South African-born Geldunhuys and Bortolami make up the second row and the back row features the hardworking Zanni, Mauro Bergamasco and their inspirational skipper Sergio Parisse. The backline looks rather inexperienced, but there has been a lot of praise coming out of the Italian camp for the 19 year old Tomasso Allen, who is another youngster that plied his trade in South Africa. The Australian-born Luke McLean is always solid at the back without being too flashy, but the losses of Andrea Masi, Giovanbattista Venditti and Gonzalo Canale rob the Italians of a lot of experience in the heart of the Italian backline.
Prediction:
It is hard to see anything but a Welsh victory at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff this weekend. Although it has been a couple of months since both of these teams last played an international fixture, Wales are the best team in Europe with a solid tight five, effective loose forwards, big and fast backs and one of the most sound kickers in the game. Although the Italians might keep it close early on, the home crowd will kick into gear and I expect the Red Dragons to sound an early warning to the rest of the competition with a comprehensive victory.
Predicted result: Wales to win @ $1.04 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: Wales -11.5 / England +10.5 @ $1.89 – Sportsbet
France ($1.74) vs England ($2.54)
The late match in Paris (early Sunday morning Australian time) between old enemies France and England will without a doubt be the match of the round and if not, one of the best matches of the tournament. 2013 will be a year that everyone in France will want to forget, however, unlike many teams before them, they were able to push the All Blacks to the brink of defeat and quite possibly should have won that match in Paris. In the 2014 version of the competition, England will be hoping to go one better and they are starting to look promising, especially at home where they have won five out of their last six matches. Manu Tuilagi and the English bench were the difference in the corresponding fixture last year where England won 23 -13 at Twickenham, however, Saturday in the ‘city of love/rude people’ is the start of a new chapter for both teams en route to the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
France:
As aforementioned, 2013 was one of the worst years in French rugby history when a dismal RBS 6 Nations campaign was followed up by some ordinary performances in the Autumn Internationals where they finished with a season record of two wins (Scotland, Tonga), one draw (Ireland) and eight defeats. Coach Philippe Saint-Andre has had a tough coaching initiation, however, with twelve months under his belt, I do believe the French will vastly improve this year. Les Bleus need to start playing with a sense of purpose and be organised and clinical at everything they do. They have the personnel to go all the way, but I do believe the influx of foreign players (40%) into the Top 14 is stifling some of their growth and potential, particularly in key positions such as fly half. Unfortunately, Thierry Dusautoir who was initially entrusted with the captaincy has only recently been ruled out of the tournament, so some of the other senior players are going to need to stand up and should take a page out of his book in terms of playing smart, confrontational rugby.
Coach Phillippe Saint-Andre has made it very clear that his men will play very direct and bruising rugby by naming a very sizeable and physical starting fifteen. The first choice players will be accompanied by a bench consisting of six forwards and two backs. Consistency in selection is not Saint-Andre’s strongest suit at the moment as he continues to test various combinations and cohesion between backs and forwards alike. The scrum is synonymous with French rugby and the front row of Domingo, Kayser and Mas will be in charge of setting the tone up front. They will be supported in the trenches by Pascal Pape (captain) and the man-mountain Alexandre Flanquart, as well as Nyanga, Le Roux and one of the best number eights in the world, Louis Picamoles. Jean Marc-Doussain and Jules Plisson form the tenth halves combination during Saint-Andre’s reign and a lot will rest on them and the pack to provide some space for Wesley Fofana and Mathieu Bastareaud, a lethal and powerful centre partnership. Brice Dulin appears to have cemented his place at fullback, alongside Joann Huget and Maxime Médard on the wings. I have no doubt that France will be looking to recapture the magic that propelled them to the grand slam in 2010, however, they will need to settle on some combinations and let players find their feet on the international stage before the showcase event in 2015. Much like England and Wales, Les Bleus are solid across the park and providing some of those 50/50 calls go their way, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them finish within striking distance of the championship with one round to go.
England:
England head into this year’s Championship having been narrowly eclipsed by Wales on points differential in the final round of last year’s competition. England followed that up with five consecutive victories before succumbing to the might of the All Blacks in their final fixture of the year. As a result, bookmakers have understandably installed England as runners-up favourites and the fact that they only play two fixtures at Twickenham would’ve come into their calculations. The two key games for England will be this week against France in Paris and the match against Wales at Twickenham in Round four. Should England win both of these fixtures, they will be well on their way to securing their first title since 2011, and it would instil a huge amount of confidence within the team and their fans ahead of the 2015 showdown.
Having cast my eyes over the team sheet devised by coach Stuart Lancaster this week, the English have a squad blended with youth and experience and I feel that a number of their ‘fresh’ faces will make themselves known to southern hemisphere fans this year. The forward pack is relatively experienced with Marler, Hartley and Cole in the front row. Joe Launchbury and the enforcer Courtney Lawes fill jerseys four and five and captain Chris Robshaw and bullocking number eight Billy Vunipola will be joined by Tom Wood in the back row. The latter and Launchbury were standout performers for England in the Autumn Internationals and have both pressed on with good club form in recent times. Some say that Lancaster has gambled with his backline selections by naming debutants Jack Nowell (wing) and Luther Burrell (outside centre) alongside winger Jonny May (one cap). The livewire Danny Care will partner Owen Farrell in the halves and Billy Twelvetrees who found some form in November, will be out to provide fullback Mike Brown with some time and space to weave his magic. His form in the England jersey last year and throughout the European domestic competitions has been scintillating and the men in blue will have to be very certain and precise with their exit kicks.
Prediction:
France will take confidence from playing their first fixture of the season on their hallowed turf, the Stade de France, however, they will need to fire on all cylinders if they want to kick start their 2014 campaign in the strongest possible fashion. England has won six of the last eight clashes dating back to 2011, but as every journalist has mentioned a thousand times before, the only predictable thing about French rugby is their unpredictability, so they can never be counted out. However, with that being said, until France starts putting some runs on the board, I am happy to bet against them and I truly believe that England are on the rise and will surprise many this season. Additionally, with the impending rain, I believe England has a better pack and can outmuscle the home team in an encounter that will leave many players with extremely sore bodies on Sunday.
Prediction: England to win – $2.54 (Betfair)
Best Bet 2: England +3.5 @ $1.95 – Betfair
Ireland ($1.17) vs Scotland ($8.00)
Round one will conclude on Sunday evening when the northern hemisphere’s green machine host Scotland at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. After one of their best years in recent memory (2012), Ireland will be very disappointed with their RBS 6 Nations campaign last year finishing in second last (5th), just ahead of France on points differential. Contrary to Ireland, Scotland had one of their best campaigns in recent history when they finished third after securing wins against Italy and this week’s opponents Ireland, however a form slump during the Autumn Internationals saw them expectedly outclassed by both the Springboks and the Wallabies.
Ireland:
The Aviva Stadium will be buzzing this weekend for this year’s first fixture after almost witnessing their heroes secure a first ever victory over the All Blacks from 108 attempts. After a disastrous season, the fighting Irish had every opportunity to finish the year on a high where they had a tired looking All Blacks team under the pump, however that elusive victory or ‘miracle’ as some locals would’ve described it, was put on hold after some final minute blunders in front of an apprehensive crowd at the Aviva Stadium. Coach Joe Schmidt was headhunted for the role after achieving unprecedented success with Leinster, reaching six finals and winning four trophies during his three-year tenure and his experience and technical nous was certainly evident when his troops were leading the All Blacks 19 – 0, however, it simply wasn’t to be.
Looking at this week, Schmidt has rewarded a number of Ulster players for their domestic form this season in naming a strong team to face Scotland. Cian Healy, one of the finest props in the game will partner Rory Best and Mike Ross in the front row. Paul O’Connell the fiery veteran will captain Ireland and will partner the rugby world’s tallest player in Devin Toner who stands at 2.11 metres. The back row consists of Munster-based Peter O’Mahony, Ulster-based Chris Henry and the well-known Leinster number eight, Jamie Heaslip. Unfortunately for Ireland, they will be without their world-class flanker Sean O’Brien who has been ruled out of the tournament with a shoulder injury that was sustained during a RaboDirect Pro12 fixture in December. His influence at the breakdown is monumental and his thunderous ball carrying ability will surely be missed. British & Irish Lions half back Conor Murray, who has taken his game to another level, will partner Jonny Sexton in the halves, despite the latter having a torrid time in France (Racing Metro) after his move away from Leinster last season. The evergreen Brian O’Driscoll will make an Irish record 129th appearance for his country, moving one ahead of the now retired Ronan O’Gara. His experience will be invaluable to Luke Marshall (inside centre) who has been preferred to one of Ireland’s better players against the All Blacks and long-time centre partner of Brian O’Driscoll, Gordon D’arcy. Brothers Dave and Rob Kearney form two-thirds of the outside backs alongside the fleet-footed Andrew Trimble.
Scotland:
Unfortunately for Scotland, they have never been a team that consistently challenge the superpowers of the game and although there have been a few small glimpses of light at the end of the tunnel in recent seasons, it will still be a number of years (if ever) before Scotland can consistently crack the heavyweights of the game. Scotland have one of the smaller player pools in Europe and domestic teams Edinburgh and Glasgow have both failed to make it to the knockout stages of this year’s Heineken Cup, which is essentially the Northern Hemisphere’s version of Super Rugby. Scotland’s best chance of winning matches has been when their poor weather helps lure opposition team’s into kicking duels, and their forwards often fail to get the upper-hand and their backs lack players with creativity (not including Stuart Hogg) and game-breaking ability. Despite the factors above, they play with a huge amount of passion and the bagpipes that sound around the stadium during their fixtures create an atmosphere that generally makes the unbearable conditions worthwhile for both home and visiting fans.
Scott Johnson, the Australian-born Scottish coach has made four changes to the team that played against the Wallabies in the Autumn International series. Most noticeably, the exciting fullback Stuart Hogg returns having recovered from injury and in turn shifts New Zealand-born and former Canterbury Crusader Sean Maitland to the wing. Alex Dunbar is preferred to Nick de Luca in the centres and up front, towering lock Tim Swinson replaces Grant Gilchrist, and Glasgow-based Ryan Wilson replaces the Johnnie Beattie in the number six jersey. Dunbar, Swinson, Wilson and Duncan Taylor, who has been favoured over Matt Scott at inside centre will all feature for Scotland for the first time in the RBS 6 Nations. Initial observations question the balance of Scotland’s back row as coach Scott Johnson has neglected to select an out-and-out fetcher. Although Wilson, Brown and Denton are great ball carriers and have huge engines, a player like John Barclay could well have made a crucial impact at the breakdown, an area where the winning team almost always dominates.
Prediction:
Memories of capitulating to a tiring All Blacks team in November and falling to Scotland last season at Murrayfield will be rife in the minds of everyone in Ireland and fans will be expecting of a performance that mirrors the first 60 minutes against the world champions. The domestic competition is strong in Ireland and a number of youngsters are starting to make a name for themselves. As I mentioned above, Scottish rugby has always simmered without reaching any great heights. On their day, they can match it with the best, but consistency has always been an issue and that is something that coach Scott Johnson must address if he wants to hold onto his job over the next few seasons. The match against the Irish at Murrayfield in 2013 was one that deserves very little mention, and with the weather looking tolerable in Dublin, we could be in for a cracking game. The Irish are hurting after last year’s rollercoaster ride and I do believe they have the personnel and game plan to pull away from Scotland by more than a try. Furthermore, Scotland has failed to win their first round match since 2006.
Prediction: Ireland to win – $1.17 (Betfair)
Best Bet 3: Ireland vs Scotland Best Bet TBC on Sunday
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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