Best Bet 1: New Zealand -11.0 @ $1.90 – Tab.com.au
NEW ZEALAND ($1.18) VS BRITISH & IRISH LIONS ($4.90)
The rugby world will come to a standstill on Saturday night at Eden Park in Auckland where New Zealand faces the British & Irish Lions in the 2017 series decider. The Lions levelled the series with a 24-21 win in treacherous conditions in Wellington last week, with the All Blacks forced to play with 14 men due to a Sonny Bill Williams red card in the 25th minute of the match. It broke a 47-Test unbeaten run at home, but the All Blacks are currently riding a 38 match winning streak in Auckland dating back to 1994. Rain is forecasted this weekend, but it doesn’t look anything like the deluge that came down in Wellington.
Prediction:
The All Blacks did exceptionally well to stay in the match at Westpac Stadium once SBW had been given his marching orders. The decision to replace flanker Jerome Kaino with centre Ngani Laumape was a brave one, but one that kept probably kept them in the match, along with the weather. The way in which the All Blacks assistant coach Ian Foster saw the mismatch as a challenge as he made note during his half-time speech, rather than looking at the negatives, speaks volumes of the All Blacks and their psyche. However, credit must go to the Lions. Their pack certainly stood up and were more physical and aggressive last week and Connor Murray put in another great performance against the All Blacks. In saying that, their collective ill-discipline will be a cause for concern for the coaching staff and team fans. Their tour aim has been to concede seven or fewer penalties per game, whereas, in Wellington they gave away 13, 10 of which lead to goal kicks. This played right into the All Blacks hands by eating up the clock and Barrett’s off day with his boot is one of the primary reasons why the Lions have a glimmer of hope heading into this week’s match.
Coach Steve Hansen has made three changes to his starting fifteen, all of which affect the backline. The forward pack remains the same for the third consecutive week and they will be much better as a unit for it. The back line changes see ‘the bus’ Julian Savea replace Rieko Ioane, who didn’t have the ball go his way in the second Test. Hurricanes centre Ngani Laumape comes in for the suspended Sonny Bill Williams at inside centre and Jordie Barrett has been preferred at fullback, shifting Israel Dagg to the right wing in place of the concussed Waisake Naholo. Midfielder Malakai Fekitoa finds a spot on the bench and will be used as a key impact player later in the match or if Laumape slips up early.
Lions coach Warren Gatland has selected the same matchday squad for the first time since 1993. The inclusions of Maro Itoje and Sam Warburton last week was a masterstroke, with their physicality and breakdown prowess evident. With the Jonny Sexton-Owen Farrell axis selected again, the Lions need to play a smart game where they control it by plugging the corners and playing field position on attack. In defence, they will need to slow down the All Blacks ball and first and foremost, stay disciplined in defence.
History is very much pointing to an All Blacks victory this weekend, but we all know that records are made to be broken. Firstly, the All Blacks haven’t lost at Eden Park since 1994, a stretch of 38 matches. The last time the All Blacks lost two Test matches in a row was in 2011 (Australia and South Africa) and the last time they lost two in a row at home was in 1998. Some punters are tipping the upset in this one, but I do believe the Lions played their final last week and barely got the job done with a one-man advantage for the majority of the match. They celebrated like securing one victory was enough. The All Blacks don’t like to lose face and their backup loss record is second to none. Additionally, the Lions players are at the end of a long season and have been forced to make 162 more tackles than the AB’s across the two Tests so far (355-193). The last time the Lions won a series in New Zealand was in 1971 and despite their current crop of players being the strongest I’ve seen, it’ll take a near-perfect performance to beat the mighty All Blacks. The All Blacks are known for their killer instinct and until they lose their sting on the big stage, I’m not prepared to back against them. Throw in the fact that it is captain Kieran Read’s 100th Test match and the players will be doing anything and everything to secure the victory in style.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.18 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 1: New Zealand -11.0 @ $1.90 – Tab.com.au
