One weekend of Test match rugby remains before we head back into the final three regular season matches of Super Rugby. The All Blacks once again showed they are a peerless 80-minute team with a 36-22 win over Wales in windy Wellington. England also cemented their number two spot in the World Rugby rankings with a hard fought 20-6 wins over Australia at a sub-standard Aami Park in Melbourne. The Springboks then restored some pride in their own jersey win a nail-biting six-point win over a committed Irish side. You can see the pace and possession-based game that the southern hemisphere teams have honed through Super Rugby, whereas their northern hemisphere counterparts focus heavily on the set piece, tactical kicking and their ability to defend. Last week’s best bets turned a profit, so fingers crossed for another successful weekend. Make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat.
Best Bet 1: New Zealand 2nd Half Handicap – 10.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.78 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Australia to win (vs England) @ $1.92 – Luxbet
Best Bet 3: South Africa vs Ireland – Bet to be posted on Twitter when all markets are released

New Zealand ($1.05) vs Wales ($11.00)

The final game of the series between the All Blacks and the Welsh Dragons will take place under the roof at Forsyth-Barr Stadium in Dunedin. New Zealand lead the three match series having beaten Wales 36 – 22 in Wellington last weekend. As a result, Wales are still winless in New Zealand and will need to pick up their game if they are to break New Zealand’s current 40 home-winning streak, which dates back to 2009.

New Zealand: Joe Moody, Dane Coles, Owen Franks, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Jerome Kaino, Sam Cane, Kieran Read, Aaron Smith, Aaron Cruden, Ben Smith, Ryan Crotty, Malakai Fekitoa, Waisake Naholo, Israel Dagg

Replacements: Nathan Harris, Wyatt Crockett, Charlie Faumauina, Patrick Tuipulotu, Ardie Savea, TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett, Seta Tamanivalu

Wales: Gethin Jenkins, Ken Owens, Samson Lee, Luke Charteris, Alun Wyn Jones, Ross Moriarty, Sam Warburton, Toby Faletau, Rhys Webb, Dan Biggar, Hallam Amos, Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Liam Williams, Rhys Patchell

Replacements: Scott Baldwin, Rob Evans, Tomas Francis, Bradley Davies, Ellis Jenkins, Gareth Davies, Rhys Priestland, Scott Williams

Prediction: 

As was the case in Auckland in the first Test match, the All Blacks dominated the majority of the attacking statistics including tries (5:3), metres paid per carry (5.14m:3.95m), defenders beaten (29:23), clean breaks 24:13 and offloads (15:13). In saying that, the Welsh did have a lot more possession in Wellington, but both teams’ high error counts of 17 turnovers each left a lot of points out on the field. Defensively New Zealand were a shade better than Wales making 83% of their tackles in comparison to 73% and everyone knows with those sorts of stats, the AB’s more often than not are going to win. Discipline is a bit of an area of concern for the home team having conceded 11 penalties to Wales’ six, however, the visitors were unable to punish them for it or put them under any real pressure.

New Zealand coach Steve Hansen has shuffled his team around for this week given their unassailable 2-0 series lead. There are five changes to the starting lineup including Charlie Faumauina coming in for Owen Franks at prop and Elliot Dixon is in line to make his Test debut having been selected at blindside flanker. The impressive Beauden Barrett comes in for the injured Aaron Cruden at flyhalf with Blues utility George Moala replacing the injured Malakai Fekitoa outside of Ryan Crotty. Julian Savea also returns to the run-on team pushing the impressive, but somewhat weak under the high ball, Waisake Naholo to the bench. On the pine, Ofa Tu’ungafasi and Liam Squire will look to play their first minutes for the All Blacks, with flyhalf Lima Sopoaga also likely to see some action from the bench for the first time this season.

Welsh coach Warren Gatland has made just the two changes this week with Rob Evans and Tomas Francis coming in for Gethin Jenkins and Samson Lee in the front row. Flanker Sam Warburton remains captain, but after this series, I wonder if it is time to pass the baton onto someone else. Welsh rugby needs a bit of a shake-up and a fresh approach and I would look at changing the leadership team because although they have been competitive for many years, they just don’t have the ability or guidance at present to take Welsh rugby to the next level. In saying that, outside centre Jonathan Davies was outstanding last week. His stats were impressive and he showed why he is considered to be one of the best in the world in his position. The notable handoff on Waisake Naholo will be on highlight reels for the rest of the season.

Despite the team changes, I can’t see anything other than an All Blacks victory. They might not have the cohesiveness that they showed over the past two Test matches, but there is still more than enough class in their line-up, especially in key positions. The inclusion of Beauden Barrett is long overdue and he will be looking for a strong performance as he has developed into a great super-sub or finisher for the All Blacks. Under the roof, the weather won’t play a part and I expect it to be another high-scoring clash.

Predicted result: New Zealand to win by 20 @ $1.05 – Luxbet

Best Bet 1: New Zealand 2nd Half Handicap – 10.5 (vs Wales) @ $1.78 – Sportsbet

Series Plays: 2-0

Australia ($1.92) vs England ($1.92)

Australia and England will clash in a dead-rubber at Allianz Stadium in Sydney on Saturday night. Last weekend in Melbourne, England wrapped up the series with a gutsy 20 – 7 victory that was underpinned by yet another huge defensive effort. England now hold an unassailable 2-0 lead and look like the real-deal under Eddie Jones, a coach that has been able to get under the hardened skin of Wallabies coach Michael Cheika.

Australia: James Slipper, Stephen Moore (captain), Sekope Kepu, Rory Arnold, Sam Carte, Scott Fardy, Michael Hooper, Sean McMahon, Nick Phipps, Bernard Foley, Rob Horne, Samu Kerevi, Tevita Kuridrani, Dane Haylett-Petty, Israel Folau

Replacements: Not finalised at time of writing

England: Mako Vunipola, Dylan Hartley, Dan Cole, Maro Itoje, George Kruis, Chris Robshaw, Teimana Harrison, Billy Vunipola, Ben Youngs, George Forde, Jack Nowell, Owen Farrell, Jonathan Joseph, Anthony Watson, Mike Brown

Replacements: Jamie George, Matt Mullan, Paul Hill, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Jack Clifford, Danny Care, Elliot Daly

Prediction: 

Like in Brisbane, the Wallabies hade a huge possession advantage (71%:29%) and made 501m from 188 carries compared to England’s 226m from 66 runs. Australia beat 31 defenders, which included 13 line breaks, whereas the visitors were only able to beat nine defenders and break the line on four occasions. When you notice that the Wallabies also made more passes (224:62) and more offloads (11:4), it is clear that they were ineffective with the ball, turning it over on 24 occasions (to England’s 10), and they only managed one try compared to England’s two. Defensively, England were made to make almost four times as many tackles (62:213), but the ability of George Ford and Owen Farrell to be able to pin the Wallabies in their own half was ultimately the difference. The set piece was an even battle, but only because of the fact that referee Craig Joubert had to be lenient as a result of the poor conditions under foot in Melbourne. Penalties were even (9:10), so it is surprising that the visitors were still able to win on the back of only three successful penalty goals.

Wallabies coach Michael Cheika has made three changes to his team this week. Rob Simmons has forced his way back into the second row, this time partnering the giant Will Skelton. Last week’s lock pairing of Sam Carter and Rory Arnold have been dropped from the match day 23. The other change sees Matt Toomua reinstated to the backline at inside centre, selected as a direct replacement for Reds centre Samu Kerevi. This will be the first time in the series that Cheika has opted for two ball players in the backline, something England has excelled at. Once again, at the time of writing, Cheika has named an extended bench, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see giant winger Taqele Naiyaravoro make the cut and he will be used as a wrecking ball in the second half.

Eddie Jones has opted just to make the one change for this Test match with the New Zealand-born and Northampton Saints Teimana Harrison replacing the impressive James Haskell. England skipper Dylan Hartley and Dan Cole have been immense for England in the front row, but it is there work in cleaning out rucks and slowing down their opposition’s ball that has been most impressive. Maro Itoje, the 21-year-old lock has delivered on all of the pre-series hype having picked up the European Player of the Year last month. He made 21 tackles in Melbourne and he is physically-gifted with natural size and a huge motor. Chris Robshaw has also copped some flack in recent times, but his man-of-the-match performance in Melbourne showed that their might be room for a 6.5 (not really a seven or a six) in the England team. In the backs, all the credit needs to go to George Ford and Owen Farrell. They do a great job of controlling the game, but given their small stature they are often targeted with big runners. Despite this, they still made 10 and 12 tackles respectively, with the latter kicking 13-points off the tee, and the deciding try.

England have been tactically brilliant this series. They would’ve spent the night in Melbourne soaking up the atmosphere and one wonders if that hangover might have an effect of proceedings this week. Michael Cheika has introduced new faces this week and I am hopeful that Will Skelton can boss some of the England pack with his size and physicality, especially close to the try line. As aforementioned, the inclusion of Matt Toomua gives the Wallabies additional options and I am hopeful that they can avoid being whitewashed for the first time in a home series for a long, long, long time.

Predicted result: Australia to win narrowly @ $1.92 – Luxbet

Best Bet 2: Australia to win (vs England) @ $1.92 – Luxbet

Series Plays: 0-2

South Africa ($1.33) vs Ireland ($3.30)

South Africa and Ireland will clash in the series decider at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium in Port Elizabeth on Saturday night. The Springboks stole victory from the jaws of defeat last weekend in Johannesburg, after they overturned a 16-point half time deficit to win 32 – 26. It was a game of two halves that saw the Springboks get booed off by their own fans at half-time, before touching down four times in the second half in a performance that was much more synonymous with Springbok rugby.

South Africa: Tendai Mtwawira, Adriaan Strauss (captain), Frans Malherbe, Eben Etzebeth, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Francois Louw, Siya Kolisi, Warren Whitely, Faf de Klerk, Elton Jantjies, JP Pietersen, Damien de Allende, Lionel Mapoe, Ruan Combrinck, Willie le Roux

Replacements: Bongi Mbonambi, Steven Kitshoff, Julian Redelinghuys, Franco Mostert, Jaco Kriel, Rudy Paige, Morne Steyn, Jesse Kriel

Ireland: Jack McGrath, Rory Best (captain), Mike Ross, Iain Henderson, Devin Toner, CJ Stander, Rhys Ruddock, Jamie Heaslip, Connor Murray, Paddy Jackson, Keith Earls, Luke Marshall, Stuart Olding, Andrew Trimble, Tiernan O’Halloran.

Replacements: Richardt Strauss, Finlay Bealham, Tadhg Furlong, Ultan Dillane, Rhys Ruddock, Eoin Reddan, Ian Madigan, Matt Healy

Prediction: 

The Springboks bounced back with an emphatic second half performance scoring four tries to the visitors two. Like their southern hemisphere neighbours, the South Africans dominated all key attacking stats lines, but defensively they were much stronger than in Cape Town. The Springbok set piece was once again stable, but at the same time, lacked that power that South African rugby has been synonymous for, for many years. The hosts were very clinical in the second half after being booed off by their faithful fans at the end of the first stanza. It comes as no surprise that the injection of a lot of their Lions players, who have been performing admirably at Super Rugby, swung the momentum in the home team’s favour. In saying that, they have a long, long way to go to creating an All Black like aura, especially after only just escaping with the victory against such an injury-depleted touring party.

Springboks coach Alastair Coetzee has made just the two changes to the starting lineup with Warren Whitely replacing Duane Vermuelen at number eight and Ruan Combrinck comes into the starting team after his man-of-the-match performance off the bench last weekend. Steven Kitshoff and a personal favourite Jaco Kriel are in line to make their debuts off the bench. I still feel that there is some tinkering to do to get better balance. Jan Serfontein hasn’t played this series and I think not having Bismarck du Plessis in the squad has cost them a number of metres and power up front.
Irish coach Joe Schmidt had decided to ring the changes for this all-important Test match. He has decided to start with the same forward pack that won the first match in Cape Town bringing in Mike Ross into the front row and CJ Stander returns after his unfortunate suspension. Munster Halfback Connor Murray will play his 50th cap for Ireland and he will team up with the consistent Paddy Jackson. Luke Marshall returns to the centres to partner Stuart Olding, with Tiernan O’Halloran named at fullback to replace the versatile, but injured Jared Payne. Reserve scrumhalf Eoin Reddan finds himself on the bench for his last Test match before retirement and with Matt Healy included in the reserves as well, Schmidt has used all 32 of the squad he selected to tour the Republic.

Nothing other than a victory against the Irish will do this weekend for the Springboks. Ireland had their chance to get a rare series win last weekend and the Springboks will make them pay for taking their foot off the gas. It won’t be the most polished performance, but I expect the Springboks to win by more than any other margin this series.

Predicted result: South Africa to win @ $1.33 – Sportsbet

Best Bet 3: South Africa vs Ireland – Bet to be posted on Twitter when all markets are released

Series Plays: 2-0